Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Roy Wasson]

Hey guys, help me with the math here (I snuck through college and post-grad degree without a single math class). I tried to use the delivery estimator, but I also am computer-challenged. I made my reservation online on 4/1 (I was 32d in line in Miami on 3/31 but did not know that they would not take a check), and have Reservation Number RN108986148. I would just like to know approximately where I am on the list, not necessarily a delivery date. Thanks for the help.

Roy

 

[Troy]

Hi Roy,

Google sheets don't work well on mobile devices in case you are using a tablet. You could try on a computer or I can check the results for you if you want but I need the following information:

1. Exact reservation time
2. Whether you want RWD or AWD

 

[Roy Wasson]

Hi Roy,

Google sheets don't work well on mobile devices in case you are using a tablet. You could try on a computer or I can check the results for you if you want but I need the following information:

1. Exact reservation time
2. Whether you want RWD or AWD

Thanks, Troy. The time was 13:08. RWD

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Roy Wasson. You can see the results here as an image file. 13:08 Eastern time would be 10:08 Pacific Time. If 13:08 was already Pacific Time then it adds 19 days more.

 

[djplong]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news..... I'm about 15 miles south of Nashua, and when you account for cold weather and hills, you're going to be really pushing it if you're trying to get all the way to the Molly Pitcher rest area Supercharger.

I've already resigned myself to the fact that in the winter, I'm probably going to need a few quick electrons in Greenwich, Darien, or Tarrytown depending on which way we come down through the city.

Summertime....should be good to go.

I'm wondering about that myself. Of course, there are two things impacting that.

1) Just how big will the bigger battery be? ...and it's range...

2) How much 'extra' you can get from a "range charge" (100% charge) timed for your departure.

Any time I'm heading south, I certainly know it more than a day in advance.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I'm wondering about that myself. Of course, there are two things impacting that.

1) Just how big will the bigger battery be? ...and it's range...

2) How much 'extra' you can get from a "range charge" (100% charge) timed for your departure.

Any time I'm heading south, I certainly know it more than a day in advance.

I'm in the same boat, I'd know in advance of any trips down south. Luckily (for both of us), Leominster, MA will be online before either of us gets our Model 3.

I'm not going to use it to charge my car on a regular basis, but it's nice to have there as the "Oh S*!" charger....as in, a surprise trip is needed, and you're only at 20% SoC with a 50A circuit at home. I'd obviously burn through SC credits, but it's nice to know that's available.

I'm hoping that with the top end range approaching 300-ish miles, that extra 20% on a "range charge" would be worth close to 60 miles, which makes it a little less scary trying to get to at least NYC.

 

[N5329K]

Not to dismiss your careful and useful conversations about batteries and range, summer and winter, but your concerns go right to the core of why so many others (especially those without firsthand EV experience) suffer from crippling bouts of range anxiety. Hundreds of thousands of early adopters and willing experimenters are already onboard. It's everyone else (and there are many, many more of them than us) who might be in the follow-on market for the Model 3 that worries me.
Is there a wide-open market beyond the 400,000 or so reservations? Or a wall?
Robin

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Not to dismiss your careful and useful conversations about batteries and range, summer and winter, but your concerns go right to the core of why so many others (especially those without firsthand EV experience) suffer from crippling bouts of range anxiety. Hundreds of thousands of early adopters and willing experimenters are already onboard. It's everyone else (and there are many, many more of them than us) who might be in the follow-on market for the Model 3 that worries me.
Is there a wide-open market beyond the 400,000 or so reservations? Or a wall?
Robin

I'm a type A personality, and my wife and I are the type of people who overplan.

Between what Tesla has in the Northeast US corridor now, and what they plan on having by the time I take delivery, I'll be perfectly fine making my 600 mile trip, no matter what time of year.

I think Tesla may actually have to bite the bullet a little and advertise at some point beyond the initial 400,000 orders though....even if it's PSAs about range, and not necessarily advertising a specific vehicle.

 

[tpatana]

After looking the map at plugshare website, my (pre-owner) range anxiety was almost 100% gone.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. I have started a predictions competition. Currently, there are 3 polls but more will be added. Links to these polls and an introduction to the competition can be found in the opening message here:

Tesla Predictions Competition

 

[internalaudit]

Hey guys, help me with the math here (I snuck through college and post-grad degree without a single math class). I tried to use the delivery estimator, but I also am computer-challenged. I made my reservation online on 4/1 (I was 32d in line in Miami on 3/31 but did not know that they would not take a check), and have Reservation Number RN108986148. I would just like to know approximately where I am on the list, not necessarily a delivery date. Thanks for the help.

Roy

You were in line and didn't have a credit card on you? That will be a huge change in position.

 

[Troy]

Hi. Calculations have been updated. Instead of using a single global percentage for RWD/AWD distribution, calculations now use different percentages for each region based on survey data from model3tracker.info.

 

[lupend88]

Hi. Calculations have been updated.

Thank you for all your hard work Troy, I really appreciate it. Exciting times ahead as I'm looking at a delivery estimate in only 4 months!

 

[ggies07]

Question - It says my delivery date is Dec 26, but I thought the company takes a week off for the holidays that month, so how does this factor into your calculations?

 

[MP3Mike]

Question - It says my delivery date is Dec 26, but I thought the company takes a week off for the holidays that month, so how does this factor into your calculations?

The factory may take a week off, but the whole company does not. So delivery centers will probably be open.

 

[melindav]

I will bring the delivery center xmas (or holiday of their choice) cookies if so lucky to be called to pick up before new years!

 

[Troy]

Question - It says my delivery date is Dec 26, but I thought the company takes a week off for the holidays that month, so how does this factor into your calculations?

No problem. I have changed that now. I assumed no production on 24, 25, 26, 27 and 31st December. Based on the Model S tracker spreadsheet, in 2015, cars were produced on the 23rd and 28th Dec (see cells M212, M214, and M215 here). In 2016, production continued until the 23rd as well (see cells N218 and M219 here).

By the way, a delivery on the 26th December is still possible because the car would be produced before Christmas. In fact, a few people on the list here had their car delivered on the 26th Dec. Deliveries were very common during the holiday season. The list shows 161 cars delivered in December 2016 and 32 of those were delivered between 24-31 December 2016. That's about 20%.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

The factory may take a week off, but the whole company does not. So delivery centers will probably be open.

Yea, I can't imagine they'd let cars sit in transit at the end of the year. They'll be closed on Christmas, and they'll close early-ish on NYE, but if your car is on the lot and available for pickup, they're gonna need the space....you'll be able to take delivery.

 

[ggies07]

No problem. I have changed that now. I assumed no production on 24, 25, 26, 27 and 31st December. Based on the Model S tracker spreadsheet, in 2015, cars were produced on the 23rd and 28th Dec (see cells M212, M214, and M215 here). In 2016, production continued until the 23rd as well (see cells N218 and M219 here).

By the way, a delivery on the 26th December is still possible because the car would be produced before Christmas. In fact, a few people on the list here had their car delivered on the 26th Dec. Deliveries were very common during the holiday season. The list shows 161 cars delivered in December 2016 and 32 of those were delivered between 24-31 December 2016. That's about 20%.

ah, thanks for the explanation! *thumbs up*

 

[dsmith2189]

No problem. I have changed that now. I assumed no production on 24, 25, 26, 27 and 31st December. Based on the Model S tracker spreadsheet, in 2015, cars were produced on the 23rd and 28th Dec (see cells M212, M214, and M215 here). In 2016, production continued until the 23rd as well (see cells N218 and M219 here).

By the way, a delivery on the 26th December is still possible because the car would be produced before Christmas. In fact, a few people on the list here had their car delivered on the 26th Dec. Deliveries were very common during the holiday season. The list shows 161 cars delivered in December 2016 and 32 of those were delivered between 24-31 December 2016. That's about 20%.

Troy, I don't see Hawaii in the list. rumor has it that HI cars will be delivered after US East coast. do you have any data on that? can you add HI to the spreadsheet?