Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[mcghee33]

So I just got back from SC. One of the reps said that couple of line waiters ahead of me and non owners have configured yesterday!!!! This is in Florida. Amazing news if true.

Also, I confirmed if they're owners or not, he said definitely not owners. Also, he said that production is definitely 1000/week.

That doesn't make any sense at all considering owners in multiple states have not had the option to configure. Why would Tesla invite non owners in any state before taking orders from owners in other states? For instance they clearly did not send invites to MO, TX, AZ, NV, CO... the list goes on. My guess is they used to be owners or you got bad information.

 

[Zoomit]

I'm confused. Does anyone have a handle on Tesla's strategy concerning configuration and delivery?

Lots of people have specific expectations, like Troy who probably has the most refined; however, I suspect that the delays, or just their learning/experience, is causing Tesla to change some of the assumptions that we’ve all clinged to.

 

[hpartsch]

On my account, it doesn't seem like my choice on this page ever saves. It keeps defaulting backing to the dual motor. Any thoughts?

 

[robski]

That doesn't make any sense at all considering owners in multiple states have not had the option to configure. Why would Tesla invite non owners in any state before taking orders from owners in other states? For instance they clearly did not send invites to MO, TX, AZ, NV, CO... the list goes on. My guess is they used to be owners or you got bad information.

If there's a few spots open on the car carriers, efficiency and cost probably overrule Tesla's general conditions. Day-1 reservation seems to hold the most weight.

 

[smythey]

Your global reservation number = 42
Delivery = 7 Aug 2019

If anybody needs me I’ll be in my office. With a bottle of whisky.

 

[mrtian97]

I think Tesla is prioritizing delivery for the LR model vs owner

 

[acentre]

I think Tesla is prioritizing delivery for the LR model vs owner

and why would they not? they are building one type of model, probably for inventory, and then releasing them to reservation holders. It may be the most efficient way for them.
I guess we will have to wait longer for SR, base models.

 

[mrtian97]

and why would they not? they are building one type of model, probably for inventory, and then releasing them to reservation holders. It may be the most efficient way for them.
I guess we will have to wait longer for SR, base models.

I agree

 

[azred]

I'm confused. Does anyone have a handle on Tesla's strategy concerning configuration and delivery?

If you weren't confused, you'd either be bluffing or delusional.

I'm a line waiter/owner in Phoenix and am still waiting. But I don't want the current configuration anyway so in my case an invitation isnt important, yet. But seeing the scattered invitations across the country cause me to wonder if I should be slightly worried. Frankly, Tesla's previous messaging about starting on the West Coast and moving East looks like it has been abandoned in favor of a dartboard. We all know Tesla is learning to mass produce cars and it probably shouldn't be too shocking if they at times look disorganized.

 

[ajitpk]

Just got my config email. In MD, model S owner, booked online 1st day.

 

[Troy]

Current survey data shows 84% of owners who have entered their data have received invites. You can enter your data here. The spreadsheet was originally created by @schonelucht (excellent idea!) and then @chojn1 created a new version from his copy when there was an issue with the old one (perfect save!). I help out with this spreadsheet. If you have any comments about this spreadsheet, there is a thread here.

 

[hpartsch]

Just got my config email. In MD, model S owner, booked online 1st day.

Wow, that sure is sweet. Interesting how I booked a > week ago and didn't get it yet. Wondering if it's because it just cleared my CC today.

 

[tpatana]

Current survey data shows 84% of owners who have entered their data have received invites. You can enter your data here. The spreadsheet was originally created by @schonelucht (excellent idea!) and then @chojn1 created a new version from his copy when there was an issue with the old one (perfect save!). I help out with this spreadsheet. If you have any comments about this spreadsheet, there is a thread here.

So after they reach close to 100%, it's no-owner time \o/

And since they started sending invites to owners about month ago, sounds like it should be only week or two.

Sweet!

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

So after they reach close to 100%, it's no-owner time \o/

And since they started sending invites to owners about month ago, sounds like it should be only week or two.

Sweet!

How many owners had reservations in California vs rest of the country? That will help confirm or deny your suggestion.

 

[Oloron]

@Troy I was wondering what you thought about some logic on Tesla's part regarding configuration vs. delivery. I am an East Coast, day one, owner reservation and just got my invite to configure. I want an AWD and so am waiting. However, Tesla says my delivery estimate is 4 weeks if I take a LR model now.

I think this window seems pretty consistent. i.e. People asked to configure seem to be getting delivery estimates of around 4 weeks.

On the "hold my place in line" screen, Tesla says I should expect to configure an AWD model in "Spring 2018". Your calculator and the last estimate I had on the Tesla reservation screen before it switched over to a configuration screen list a late summer delivery (~August/Sept). This would imply a much longer than 4 week window between configuration and delivery. For example, May configuration with September delivery would be a ~12-16 week window between configuration and delivery. Given the delivery estimates, I would have expected a configuration email in "Summer 2018".

The most straightforward, conservative explanation would be that they plan to send out AWD configuration emails much earlier in the ordering process than they have to date - though I'm not sure I see a rationale for why that would change.

Anyway, I was curious if there was some other explanation for what looks like a significant process change. (Or, I suppose, if I'm just some weird outlier data point due to an error or something.)

p.s. Fabulous model by the way.

 

[Big Dog]

^^don't forget that June 20 is technically still "Spring" in the U.S.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Oloron. Here is the timeline of events:

• 28 July 2017: Tesla's FAQ page says Spring 2018 for AWD and Nov 2017 for the $35K version. See the archived version here or look at the screenshot below.
• 1 Nov 2017: Production ramp of 5,000/week delayed until late Q1 2018. It used to be the end of Q4 2017. Details.
• 21 Nov 2017: The Model 3 configurator still says Spring 2018 for AWD but it now says early 2018 for the $35K version. See this video at 0:41.
• 3 Jan 2018: 5000/week is now moved to end of Q2 2018. Details.
• 8 Jan 2018: The Model 3 configurator remains unchanged.

It would make more sense for Tesla to change Spring 2018 to mid-2018 after the latest delays. The interesting thing is that the big gap existed before the delay on 3 Jan. Therefore your question still applies. I think this might be related to the high number of people who are already invited.

In the same video here at 7:05 it says they will notify you when AWD becomes available. That means AWD will be added to this configurator that you are already invited to. You won't receive another invite. You will receive a notification but others will get invites after existing invitees have configured. But of course, there will be a huge number of existing invitees waiting for AWD.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

[QUOTE="Troy, post: 2500372, member: 38689”]

In the same video here at 7:05 it says they will notify you when AWD becomes available. That means AWD will be added to this configurator that you are already invited to. You won't receive another invite. You will receive a notification but others will get invites after existing invitees have configured. But of course, there will be a huge number of existing invitees waiting for AWD.
[/QUOTE]

I think everything just gets shuffled back 6 months.
So SR battery is Q3, AWD is Q4

 

[slaute]

Hi @Troy

I've seen my delivery estimation being pushed by about 4 or 5 months since last time I tried your tool a few months ago. I'm a reservation holder in France (April 3 2016).
I see in your tool "RWD production start for Europe, 10 Dec 2018". Is this based on a guess or on Tesla's reports?

Thanks

 

[Troy]

Hi, @slaute. I consider what Tesla's estimator shows. It still shows late 2018 for Canada and Europe. It's a good idea for Tesla not to delay Europe too much because otherwise, delivery centers, service centers and superchargers in the US will be too crowded with huge Model 3 numbers. At the end of 2018, I'm calculating 213,000 Model 3's but in 2019, each quarter adds 100,000 more.