Model 3 lifespan?

[seattlite2004]

BS - I still boot up my 24-year-old American made laptop from time to time and it's never needed ANY service or repair. Every modern car has multiple computers in it that are required for the car to do anything. If what you said were true, even fossil cars would be complete junk in 10 years. Solid state is very reliable. That's why we migrated to it from vacuum tubes. If high-quality electronic, solid-state components make it through the initial factory burn-in, 99.9% of them will continue to work perfectly for decades.

Curious....what can one do with that laptop these days?

 

[StealthP3D]

Curious....what can one do with that laptop these days?

Ha! It can boot up in a minute and 15 seconds (slow, slow, slow), surf the Internet at 56K, run word processing, spreadsheets, etc.

It cost almost $6K in 1995 and was considered a real power-house. It served me well for a number of years and made me a lot of money. Now it's just a curiosity.

 

[dhrivnak]

Genuine question, but some may not like me asking depending on the reality...

Too early to have anything specific on the table, but a number of threads such as Model 3 vs Civic and other sources is making me think about long term ownership of Tesla vehicles, in particular Model 3 that I have on order.

I normally keep my cars for a very long time. The family car that Model 3 is replacing is 12+ years old, and still young at 150k miles apart from couple of springs, 12v battery, fuel pump, fuel injectors [recall], parking sensor [warranty but recurring theme], lazy air con and proper servicing. My previous car was 14+ years old and apart from a 12v battery, blocked windscreen washer and frayed brake light wire, didn't need anything doing to it other than the scheduled services. I am sure that my current car will not fare so well, but thats another story.

So in general, cars are getting more complex and reliant on non user serviceable parts. Long gone are the days of me doing 100% of the work needed to keep car on road, including full mechanical rebuilds and quite a bit of body work - welding never up to much...

Based upon real world experiences with older models, service trips etc rather than car is designed to last 1 million miles (which is very different to lasting 200k miles and 20 years), what are peoples thoughts on expecting a Model 3 to still being a usable car by the time it gets to 15 years old? Yes, mechanically it should be relatively simple compared to a more traditional car and I'm fairly confident on battery. But on other hand, so much relies on tech and Tesla themselves.

Stories of cars becoming unrepairable/scrap due to replacement electronic parts not being available not long after it runs out of warranty does not fill me with optimism. But my options are limited in the 300+ mile BEV category. Outright purchase, rather than lease etc. so we don't have the option on swapping every 3 or 4 years.

I have an 11 year old Tesla Roadster that is still running fine. With the additional learnings I am sure most Model 3 cars will be fine after 15 years.

 

[lascavarian]

I have 2 4 wheeled vehicles I have originally purchased, one 23 yr old and one 37 yr old. These older vehicle are mostly collecting dust due to annoying problems that make daily use a bit painful. Corrosive solutions and gases, extreme heat cycles, lubricant breakdown and mechanical and electrical complexity limit reliable miliage life.

I calculate my Model 3 has a useful life mostly based on the battery. Body failure is less an issue since carbon monoxide poisoning is a non-issue so rust penetrations are not so concerning. Average battery life is likely to be 400,000 miles and the degradation of the battery is 1% per year more or less.

For my usage, I would calculate a useful life at 33 yrs. At this point the battery would be about 30% depleted so a bit over 200 miles of range. Given dual electric motors, load on any motor should be lessened. Being garage kept and modestly used, 30+ years should be doable. Maintenance may include some new seats after a while but the overall simplicity of the vehicle reduces concerns and upgradable SW is a potential game changer.

I expect the practice of continual improvement to deliver even longer life vehicles in newer models.

 

[ElectricGhost]

I won’t be driving my Model 3 in fifteen years. Technology changes too rapidly and I will want to drive a car with the latest technology well before then. The Model 3 is a computer on wheels. Who is still using a fifteen year old computer?

Every stealth plane out there for one. The 3 is designed to be able to upgrade the cpu, ie AP 2.5 hw upgrade

 

[insaneoctane]

Has anyone read if the Model 3s MCU was designed to be easily replaceable? (Similar to the AP computer?) That's the most likely candidate to keep things feeling snappy in 5-10 years!

 

[Maven]

I think the sluggishness of the UI will start to show its ugly head sooner than the car will wear down to a problematic point.

I had a was given a 2014 Model S as a loner last week and was highly annoyed with its laggy UI and poor screen in comparison. (Not to mention the dash, control stick and throwback feel to a modern sedan)

This is no disrespect to S owners. Heck without them, we would not have a 3. However, I'm simply spoiled now with the 3's spartan interior.

Perhaps i'm in the minority here, but this will be a driving upgrade factor for many.

 

[boriszima]

I also tend to think model 3 as a computer with parts. After say 3 years, on can upgrade CUP/RAM (MCU/FSD), then add better suspension like RAM, and other items. (Comparison is not a good analogy) I kept my last car for 11 years and now average car is about 12 years old The average age of cars on America's roads went up again, report says - Roadshow since i guess car prices are going up compared to income (completely different topic). So i expect Model 3 to last me about a decade. Hopefully most expensive parts will be tires.

 

[C141medic]

I won’t be driving my Model 3 in fifteen years. Technology changes too rapidly and I will want to drive a car with the latest technology well before then. The Model 3 is a computer on wheels. Who is still using a fifteen year old computer?

I’m with you. Most of us who buy Tesla’s are techies. Although it’s possible that the Model 3 can last 15 years or longer, who wants to drive a technologically outdated vehicle? Personally, I can see myself owning my Model 3 for no longer than around 7 years before I trade in or sell.

 

[m3supra]

With the number of model 3s sold, there will definitelely be a third party market building electronic components for them. The question is how much of the system is locked down by Tesla will require factory parts.

With the goal of saving the planet, I hope Tesla doesn't let hundreds of thousands of model 3s become scrap metal.

 

[bay74]

I share the OPs concerns. The Model 3 is for me a very expensive purchase; it’ll probably be the only new car I ever own.

Concerningly it appears that many commenters here consider a 15 year old car to be “old”; I don’t. My wife’s 2001 Camry is to me a modern car, with air-con’, central locking, power windows. The fact that some people think 15 years is acceptable life for a car freaks me out.

My iPhone 4 lasted 8 years and I only retired it because some apps I used stopped working. Got a hand-me-down 6.

I expect the Model 3 to last at least 30 years. It SHOULD be better than my ‘74 VW since technology has advanced. No need for it to run 3rd party apps or get “updates” which make it slow.

Maybe I’m dreaming; but the throw-away attitude towards consumption which seems so pervasive these days is wrecking the planet. Would be a great irony if the 3 became inoperable (financially, perhaps, where repair costs are just too high) after just 15 years and I then used its parts to convert a 60-year old VW (I understand there are already open-source motor controllers and stuff available).

Hopefully my fears are unfounded and Model 3s are still being made in essentially unmodified form, or parts are available for “old” ones at least, for decades to come.

A.

 

[Atari2600]

I hope it does not rust out in 9 years.

 

[VT_EE]

Curious....what can one do with that laptop these days?

Play Leisure Suit Larry. Duh!

 

[Matt L]

I think this is like asking “how long does an iPhone last?”

If you bought an iPhone 6 in 2014, resisted the temptation to buy the 6S in 2015, weren’t impressed enough to buy the 7 in 2016, and finally bought the X in 2017, you then put a new battery in the 6 and sold it. The life for you was three years. The next guy might get another year out of it before they drop it, break the screen, and can’t be bothered.

Model 3 is already nearly three years old. There will be cheaper versions on the market once the Chinese factory gets underway, and there’s the Model Y on the horizon. Let’s expect a life of three years and then you can move on to something better... just like with the iPhone

BTW my Model 3 is scheduled to arrive in August. I’d like the service manual for help with ripping apart the car in October, probably to solve some irritating rattle or fit sound-deadening etc. - but who really knows.

I had a gorgeous 16-year-old Alfa Romeo Gtv that I lovingly cared for, polished the original paintwork to perfection, replaced the faded badges, changed the bump stops and gear oil, stainless steel exhaust, rechromed the engine’s inlet pipes, under 50,000km/30,000 miles on the clock, it was like new. One day someone drove through a stop-sign at speed, hit my Gtv and wrote the car off (it would cost three times its value to repair; insurance cheerfully paid the trivial market value; no repair shop would touch it). Couldn’t buy another for the price; nothing available. Big argument on what ‘market value’ means. It’s the reality of cars these days. I learned never to become too attached to them... now I see them as a temporary appliance.

-Alex

The model 3 isn’t 3 years old. And the cars produced in the Chinese factory will not come to NA and will have no impact on US pricing.

 

[Matt L]

Totally disagree with the analogy.

A car should get you from A to B reliably and safely. A to B today is the same as A to B was 50 years and will be in 15 years time.

A computer should allow you to do task A reliably and in a timely manner. The problem is task A 15 years ago was completely different to task A now and we have no idea what it will be in 15 years time. But yes. I have a 8 year old Mac that performs the complex tasks I set it now just as well as it performed the same complex tasks 8 years ago.

Changing cars like people change their phones or computers is part of the reason why this planet is in the mess it is in the first place. I had hoped that BEV’s would be a good thing meaning they would last longer. But sounds like they may just be seen like the throw away items that already blight this world.

My attitude may go against consumerism, but it will allow consumers to consume for longer. Not sure if people will be bothered to help save the planet for the younger generations if it’s not going to do any good. Yes, my generation and earlier were part of the problem, but many got wise and want to sort out the mess we got ourselves into. Hence, finally being in the position to get a BEV to replace our main car.

The cave awaits you...unplug your polluting WiFi router on your way out.

 

[Az_Rael]

I have searched online and haven’t found any Teslas having problems with their electronics out of warranty.

The S has several electronic components that are common failure points outside of warranty. The MCUs have been suffering numerous problems including flash memory that wears out (our 2015 had that issue) as well as screen bubbles due to failing adhesives, etc. The latest issue is screen yellowing, however, that is happening to newer MCUs in warranty, not older ones at this point. Speculation is that 100% of MCUs will eventually experience the flash memory issue due to the nature of flash memory and Tesla’s decision to use soldered memory that is not easily replaceable.

Also problematic are chargers. Many S owners have dual chargers though, so one fix is to downgrade the charger to a single and carry on for less than the $2k to fix it. And you missed the most common electronic item of all to fail on an S - the door handles.

 

[DJVoorhees]

I suggest you start looking up the word objective because you literally did the quite opposite of an objective view. “Unbiased, unprejudiced, impartial” etc. You used your crappy ice car experiences and applied it on the Tesla. I have searched online and haven’t found any Teslas having problems with their electronics out of warranty. I’m sure there are SOME which is a given, but not 100% certainty as you say. You did no research.

You have exposed yourself as an internet only expert, do yourself a favor and stop, you look silly.
If you have never heard of the hardware/SSD issues on Model 3's, you are a noob.

I hate spoon feeding internet only experts like you, but here is a primer for you, this will be my last reply to you, you are not worth my time.

 

[YusufT]

The S has several electronic components that are common failure points outside of warranty. The MCUs have been suffering numerous problems including flash memory that wears out (our 2015 had that issue) as well as screen bubbles due to failing adhesives, etc. The latest issue is screen yellowing, however, that is happening to newer MCUs in warranty, not older ones at this point. Speculation is that 100% of MCUs will eventually experience the flash memory issue due to the nature of flash memory and Tesla’s decision to use soldered memory that is not easily replaceable.

Also problematic are chargers. Many S owners have dual chargers though, so one fix is to downgrade the charger to a single and carry on for less than the $2k to fix it. And you missed the most common electronic item of all to fail on an S - the door handles.

Thanks for giving me actual information unlike the other dude. I know S has handle issues amongst other things, but how common is it? Is it certain you will run into the issue? I was mainly arguing about the Model 3, where there’s no door handle issues and the screen is different apparently.

 

[YusufT]

You have exposed yourself as an internet only expert, do yourself a favor and stop, you look silly.
If you have never heard of the hardware/SSD issues on Model 3's, you are a noob.

I hate spoon feeding internet only experts like you, but here is a primer for you, this will be my last reply to you, you are not worth my time.

Oh did I now? Why are you so upset this is an online forum, I told you my point of view and all you’re doing is insulting me instead of providing actual evidence of anything.

I’m unaware of the SSD issue, can you please explain it you “real-world expert” to a “internet expert” like me. I did a google search and didn’t see anything other than using SSD for sentry mode.

Thanks,
Your Internet Expert

 

[seattlite2004]

Oh did I now? Why are you so upset this is an online forum, I told you my point of view and all you’re doing is insulting me instead of providing actual evidence of anything.

I’m unaware of the SSD issue, can you please explain it you “real-world expert” to a “internet expert” like me. I did a google search and didn’t see anything other than using SSD for sentry mode.

Thanks,
Your Internet Expert

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