Hey folks, long-time listener, first-time caller here with a few observations that might add some clarity (or not) to what's going on currently with EDD windows and orders. I'm piecing together a few phone calls with my service center, as well as observations watching the account website. Like many of you active recently, I was a mid-November order who tried to push to '22 when I started getting delivery windows (and a VIN) in early December. Still in the waiting game.
First off, how the holds actually come off is not super transparent. My advisor might have tipped his hand a little when he told me that the hold actually comes off the day before you tell Tesla you are ready to accept delivery. Where we get fooled a little is the account changes two days out and begins to display pre-delivery tasks and such. I was seeing "TBD" in my delivery estimate, so I called and got that little tidbit. I'd assume the "TBD" is the Tesla order management system seeing the account come back online, but because it can't yet assign a place in line it just defaults to "TBD." At least that's what I would tell my system to do. If I was a data guy.
This is pure observation and conjecture on the next bit. Once the account comes fully active, it appears to initially place the order wherever it fell in the queue at that moment, regardless of the initial order date. This "new" order is given a one-month window consistent with the front-facing estimates on the new order configurator, and set as the default window (four weeks). This is what most of us were seeing the past few days because...
From a service rep, the end-of-year sprint wiped out a lot of the inventory, and the system was not fully up-to-date following the sprint. Mainly because they were not open on the 1st or 2nd of January. (Side bar: If you are reading this Elon, a tip of the cap. Not many of us saw that clever play coming. Well done forcing deliveries into 2021). The system that manages inventory did not begin catching up until sometime last night (3/4 JAN). It appears that it conducts a major update every 24 hours in the middle of the night, with periodic updates forced through based on conditions in the inventory system. Because of the major sprint, and closure of the delivery centers, it looks like Tesla probably reduced bandwidth/update cycles until the delivery teams returned to work and they could verify inventory and deliveries on the 3rd. As a result of this, my month-long EDD shifted left to 28 JAN - 26 FEB (full month exactly).
Guess is that we'll all continue to see the system adjust itself for the next day or two as it rectifies discrepancies between what's available and where all of our places in line should be based on original order dates. We should begin to see a narrowing of EDD windows, and as a consequence of the update, the "available inventory" sections of the website should also update soon.
At least, maybe....or I'm totally wrong and stuck driving my beater for another month...