Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[njsrikar]

Delivery scheduled for 14th September.

My timeline -
Reserved at store 03/31/2016 10:20AM ET
Configured AWD, MCR on 05/20/2018
Changed color to OBM 06/28/2018
Edit design link gone on 08/20/2018, uploaded finance info immediately, no trade-in, 3rd party financing
Delivery Advisor called and VIN received today 08/22/2018, #71,3xx.
Vehicle in transit at the moment and expected to reach Boston by 9/11.
Delivery scheduled for 09/14/2018

Updated the tracker sheet with my VIN info.

 

[Droulas]

Is it possible to have an older version of the "Model 3 Order Tracker" excel file, like 3-4 weeks old?
I want to compare some notes...

 

[hw_wiz]

Hi everyone. I have been reading here for a long time and finally my first post...

My order details:
Reserved 4/1/17
Configured 6/29/2018
P3 AWD
DBM / Black interior
19" tires
No EAP/FSD
Delivery to Sunnyvale, CA

I think it would be great to add to the spreadsheet what Tesla's original delivery estimate was for everyone's order. My delivery estimate has been Sept-Nov and I am more interested in how Telsa has been meeting their estimates rather than how long the average delivery date is given the deliveries are for cars reserved long before mine. This would give me more idea/comfort on when in the 3 month window I would expect to get my car.

 

[Randy7fx]

Hi everyone. I have been reading here for a long time and finally my first post...

My order details:
Reserved 4/1/17
Configured 6/29/2018
P3 AWD
DBM / Black interior
19" tires
No EAP/FSD
Delivery to Sunnyvale, CA

Do you have a performance model, or AWD? You indicate P3 AWD, but the performance model cant be configured with 19 inch wheels

 

[hw_wiz]

Do you have a performance model, or AWD? You indicate P3 AWD, but the performance model cant be configured with 19 inch wheels

Sorry, Non performance. Should have been M3, not P3 in the description.

 

[Troy]

Screenshot source: VIN Queue tab

The difference between non-reservation holders and reservation holders is striking. It is unclear whether all current AWD buyers will take delivery in 2018 or whether it will be too late for some of the non-reservation holders. An important detail here is that buyers who will place orders in the next few weeks or months are still expected to get priority if they have a reservation or if they are a current or former Tesla owner. That means orders by non-reservation holders will be pushed back and delayed.

Therefore people who ordered the LR AWD recently (maybe in the last two weeks) and who don't care about AWD that much, should consider switching to the LR or at least keep monitoring how things progress and keep that option in mind.

In addition, buyers from the US who are waiting for the SR (not SRD) should consider ordering an LR instead. If you wait for the SR, you will get $3,750 federal tax credits. If you order an LR now, you are almost guaranteed to get the car very soon. In fact, it is 83% likely that LR's ordered now will be delivered within a month. Therefore, the Long Range battery would practically cost $9,000 - $3,750= $5,250 more than Standard Range. That seems like a good deal considering that you would get the money back when you sell the car. The same applies to SRD buyers who have a reservation or owner priority. They should consider ordering an LRD now.

Is it possible to have an older version of the "Model 3 Order Tracker" excel file, like 3-4 weeks old?
I want to compare some notes...

I could use version history to check a specific number if you want. If this is about the average sale price before the price increase on 3rd August, the average price was $56,859 at the time. The average sale price between 3 - 23 Aug is $62,594. Let me know if you are trying to calculate a weighted average or something like that so I can provide more data.

 

[N54TT]

Screenshot source: VIN Queue tab

The difference between non-reservation holders and reservation holders is striking. It is unclear whether all current AWD buyers will take delivery in 2018 or whether it will be too late for some of the non-reservation holders. An important detail here is that buyers who will place orders in the next few weeks or months are still expected to get priority if they have a reservation or if they are a current or former Tesla owner. That means orders by non-reservation holders will be pushed back and delayed.

Therefore people who ordered the LR AWD recently (maybe in the last two weeks) and who don't care about AWD that much, should consider switching to the LR or at least keep monitoring how things progress and keep that option in mind.

In addition, buyers from the US who are waiting for the SR (not SRD) should consider ordering an LR instead. If you wait for the SR, you will get $3,750 federal tax credits. If you order an LR now, you are almost guaranteed to get the car very soon. In fact, it is 83% likely that LR's ordered now will be delivered within a month. Therefore, the Long Range battery would practically cost $9,000 - $3,750= $5,250 more than Standard Range. That seems like a good deal considering that you would get the money back when you sell the car. The same applies to SRD buyers who have a reservation or owner priority. They should consider ordering an LRD now.



I could use version history to check a specific number if you want. If this is about the average sale price before the price increase on 3rd August, the average price was $56,859 at the time. The average sale price between 3 - 23 Aug is $62,594. Let me know if you are trying to calculate a weighted average or something like that so I can provide more data.

I’m just curious...where have you heard that they are giving priority to previous owners? Tesla’s website only mentions reservation,order date, config and location as factors for delivery date.

 

[Troy]

@N54TT, there are 7 non-reservation holders who selected owner or former owner and 3 of them have already received their VIN. In addition, that's how things worked when they started making the LR in 2017. At the time, everybody had a reservation but owners were getting priority after employees. See the last paragraph here.

 

[N54TT]

@N54TT, there are 7 non-reservation holders who selected owner or former owner and 3 of them have already received their VIN. In addition, that's how things worked when they started making the LR in 2017. At the time, everybody had a reservation but owners were getting priority after employees. See the last paragraph here.

The way I read that last paragraph is that if two people have reservations...the one that’s a previous owner, gets priority over the other non-owner reservation.
Basically my understanding of priority is
Previous owner with reservation > non owner with reservation > no reservation(regardless of previous owner or not).

 

[hokiefan]

I'm an owner and reservation holder and don't have a VIN. I dont think owner really matters anymore.

 

[Tifighter]

Screenshot source: VIN Queue tab

The difference between non-reservation holders and reservation holders is striking. It is unclear whether all current AWD buyers will take delivery in 2018 or whether it will be too late for some of the non-reservation holders. An important detail here is that buyers who will place orders in the next few weeks or months are still expected to get priority if they have a reservation or if they are a current or former Tesla owner. That means orders by non-reservation holders will be pushed back and delayed.

Therefore people who ordered the LR AWD recently (maybe in the last two weeks) and who don't care about AWD that much, should consider switching to the LR or at least keep monitoring how things progress and keep that option in mind.

In addition, buyers from the US who are waiting for the SR (not SRD) should consider ordering an LR instead. If you wait for the SR, you will get $3,750 federal tax credits. If you order an LR now, you are almost guaranteed to get the car very soon. In fact, it is 83% likely that LR's ordered now will be delivered within a month. Therefore, the Long Range battery would practically cost $9,000 - $3,750= $5,250 more than Standard Range. That seems like a good deal considering that you would get the money back when you sell the car. The same applies to SRD buyers who have a reservation or owner priority. They should consider ordering an LRD now.



I could use version history to check a specific number if you want. If this is about the average sale price before the price increase on 3rd August, the average price was $56,859 at the time. The average sale price between 3 - 23 Aug is $62,594. Let me know if you are trying to calculate a weighted average or something like that so I can provide more data.

Thanks for the insight, Troy. Do you think that a P3 has any better chance of being delivered by the end of the year vs a LR AWD for a non-reservation holder?

 

[Troy]

@Tifighter, yes. The VIN rate so far is 20.7% for LRD and 26.1% for P. Therefore if the same trend continues, the P queue will be cleared out slightly quicker than LRD. This could make two weeks difference. What I mean by that is LRD orders by non-reservation holders up to a certain date could be delivered in 2018 versus P orders by non-reservation holders up to two weeks after that date.

 

[Droulas]

I could use version history to check a specific number if you want. If this is about the average sale price before the price increase on 3rd August, the average price was $56,859 at the time. The average sale price between 3 - 23 Aug is $62,594. Let me know if you are trying to calculate a weighted average or something like that so I can provide more data.

Can you post the numbers from the column "VIN to delivery times in the last 3 weeks" in the "Delivery" tab from 3-4 weeks earlier?

Like this, so I can "copy paste" easier to my excel:
AB 7 days
AL 19 days
AZ 10 days
CA 8 days
CO 8 days
CT 20 days
DE 16 days
FL 16 days
GA 16 days
HI 21 days
IA 7 days
ID 8 days
IL 18 days
IN 17 days
KY 26 days
MA 24 days
MD 25 days
MI 13 days
MN 13 days
MO 23 days
NC 20 days
NJ 17 days
NM 15 days
NV 6 days
NY 17 days
OH 17 days
OK 51 days
OR 5 days
PA 18 days
RI 22 days
SC 14 days
TN 16 days
TX 25 days
UT 11 days
VA 21 days
WA 8 days
WI 17 day

Thank you!

 

[Troy]

@Droulas, you can use filters for this.

1. Open the file here: Model 3 Order Tracker #3
2. Select the header row and click Data > FIlter views > Create new filter view. See the video here
3. Sort by column L, 'Scheduled delivery date', A to Z.
4. Check out the numbers in column AA, 'VIN to delivery'. You can select a few numbers in this column and see their average below. It looks like this:

I checked version history but found data only for some of the states.

AL 19
CA 9
FL 21
GA 27
MA 21
MD 28
NC 25
NJ 11
NY 11
OH 19
PA 22
TN 16
TX 34

 

[Randy7fx]

@Troy ,

Care to share thoughts on Tesla narrowing delivery windows displayed for many people? My P3D, ordered on August 5th, originally showed Oct to December anticipated delivery, and now indicates by October. Thoughts? Thanks

 

[Droulas]

thanx!

 

[ulrichw]

@N54TT, there are 7 non-reservation holders who selected owner or former owner and 3 of them have already received their VIN. In addition, that's how things worked when they started making the LR in 2017. At the time, everybody had a reservation but owners were getting priority after employees. See the last paragraph here.

I suspect data integrity is the explanation here, not a preference for owners.

boriszima has a post in the AWD thread stating he has a 3/31 reservation
NewTMan is less conclusive - there's a forum user with a lower case "newtman" username who hasn't posted since 2016. But that user has a post in April 2016 saying he's leasing a S until the 3 is available and will then switch to a 3 because the S is too large. I think that's fairly strong evidence of a reservation.
I couldn't find any references for rducpl

Given the really small sample set here, even the existence of one conclusive false positive (boriszima) is enough to place doubts on the accuracy of any conclusions based on these samples.

 

[299792458]

With all the updated timelines today, I edited my config (still "By October" after editing). My original config was June 27th, edited on July 30th from AWD to Performance, and again today to add Performance Upgrade. What date should I enter as "Configuration date"? Original configuration date or latest edit date?

 

[brandonee916]

With all the updated timelines today, I edited my config (still "By October" after editing). My original config was June 27th, edited on July 30th from AWD to Performance, and again today to add Performance Upgrade. What date should I enter as "Configuration date"? Original configuration date or latest edit date?

Keep your original, Tesla seems to be fulfilling orders based on that (at least that how they did mine)

 

[299792458]

Keep your original, Tesla seems to be fulfilling orders based on that (at least that how they did mine)

Makes sense. Updated!