Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[suwaneedad]

@suwaneedad,

1) Tesla is still getting new orders. The configurator went public exactly 2 months ago. There was a big spike at that time but afterward, new orders continued to come in at a steady flow. This is best demonstrated in the VINs tab:

We can't use the very last week to measure this because not everybody enters their data immediately after configuring. I'm currently counting the following numbers: 51/week new AWD orders, 95/week new VINs. In other words, new orders already cover 54% of the current AWD production. They currently have 57 days worth of orders but by the time they are done with those, they will have 32 days more worth of orders. I will look into this in more detail.

I don't think Tesla will need to add Standard Range or remove Premium Upgrades Package by the end of the year to add more orders. I think they will have enough orders as it is. However, if they needed more orders, they could send an email to reservation holders and owners to encourage them to order by, let's say 15th Oct 2018 for a 2018 delivery. Of course, they will try to maximize gross margins and achieve profitability in Q3 and Q4 which is why they are pushing for more highly optioned versions with deals like free supercharging. The estimated average sale price in Q4 is already ~$63,500. More details in the Survey tab.

A symbolic number of SR orders could happen in 2018. Tesla produced 30 units of Model X in Q3 2015 and 260 units of Model 3 in Q3 2017 just so they could say they started production in the shareholder letter.

@UtahIsRad, The reservation date column was more specific until recently. Day-1 instore, day-1 online, day-2 and the rest were specifically identified. When I sorted the LR AWD VIN Queue table by that data, I expected the VINs to end up on top of the table because I thought early reservation holders might have received more VINs. That wasn't the case. VINs were completely randomly scattered, even more randomly scattered than they are now. What I mean by that is, if you look at the table starting in VIN Queue column AS here, VINs are almost equally scattered around except the top section has slightly more VINs. When sorted by reservation date instead of config date, the top section didn't have that increase in density.

@Troy the Survey tab now says ~40k Model 3s in the production queue (down ~10k in under 48 hours). What's driving that kind of volatility in the data? That, combined with slight downward ticks in the graphs of folks awaiting delivery/VIN on a few of the models may be a further indication that a sizable change may need to be made soon (if not to fill out 2018 production capacity, then certainly to fill early 2019 production capacity). In saying that, I'm taking into account your point that currently, while ~10 weeks of orders are fulfilled, ~5 new weeks of orders come in the door (~50% replacement rate). That rate means the production backlog will disappear by 12/31. And the Survey indicating only ~40k vehicles in production queue (down from ~50k 48 hours ago) seems to underscore that. Thoughts?

 

[zamboni52]

Wow that is crazy fast. I assume you ordered a RWD 3?

I ordered a P3D+ MSM with White interior and EAP. I think I just got lucky.

 

[MrStabby]

Interesting! Just saw my account have its estimated delivery date move from "Oct '18" to now "Estimated delivery by late September".
(P3D-, reservation 6/05/2018, configured 7/27).

 

[Randy7fx]

Interesting! Just saw my account have its estimated delivery date move from "Oct '18" to now "Estimated delivery by late September".
(P3D-, reservation 6/05/2018, configured 7/27).

Mine too!!!

 

[Benihect]

@Troy I just edited my entry into the tracker and it led me to think. Is it possible to have the dot be clickable and link to the entry to which it coincides? Might not be possible just thought it be helpful for people to be able to see those who stats of those who reported their vin today or on any given day.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Benihect. Linking the dots in the VIN Queue tab in column H:O to entries is complicated. Instead, I recommend using filter views if you want to see for example VINs that were assigned yesterday. Here is a video that explains how you can filter and sort the data.

In addition, I added some pre-saved filters to file #3 here. On the top menu, click Data > Filter views > VIN Date=today-1 to open that specific filter. If you want, you can save that link and open the sheet directly into this filtered view.

 

[Troy]

@suwaneedad, here is the situation: There are 1,132 LRD and P VIN waiters in the survey. How many people do they represent in real life? That's tricky to calculate because I need to look at the current sample rate. Two weeks ago, 2.7% of LRD and P buyers were entering their data into the sheet. Last week, this has increased to 3.7%. Now, it's 4.2%.

The longer the wait time, the more people start looking around to see what's happening and they discover the sheet. In comparison, the LR wait times are very short. Two weeks ago the sample rate was 2%. Last week it dropped to 1.5% and this week to 0.7%. LR buyers are receiving their VINs before they have a chance to get impatient. These days, less than 1% of LR buyers are entering their data compared to more than 4% of LRD & P.

However, it's unnecessary to convert survey numbers into real-world numbers to understand how long it might take Tesla to clear out the backlog. Instead, I only use survey numbers for that. For example, there are 587 buyers waiting for LRD VINs and Tesla assigns 79 VINs per week. Therefore, it means 587/79= 7.4 weeks or 52 days.

In addition, the sheet now considers LRD and P reservation holders who have not placed orders yet but will do so in the near future. For example, the LRD queue for reservation holders will clear on 20 Oct but volume production for non-res-holder LRD buyers will be between 27 Oct-16 Nov. The gap from 20 to 27 Oct is due to res holders who have not placed orders yet. Of course, I dynamically measure how many LRD res holders are still placing orders.

 

[FrancoNY]

Troy (and others) - sorry to put you on the spot (and I won't hold you to it of course!), but I'm 5/2017 reservation, non-owner, 7/31 configuration to AWD non-P, MSM, 19" wheels, EAP, no FSD. Delivery date still says Oct-Dec 2018 which is fine. Am thinking I want to change to pearl white from MSM. From all indications from Tesla (although individual people seem to have different stories), it seems changing the configuration at all will change my delivery date, and in worst case scenario I imagine it might put me back at the end of the queue which is scarily near the end of 2018 and the full tax credit.

Do you see any indication in the data that they might miss the 4 month window if I change my order today?

 

[Troy]

I added a new column to the All Entries tab for Estimated VIN Date.

@FrancoNY, if you didn't have a reservation, I would not recommend changing your order but because you have a reservation, in the worst case it looks like you will get a VIN at the end of October. In addition, changing your order doesn't put you at the end of the queue because Tesla doesn't process them by configuration date. You could be the last person to configure and you could still get a VIN very quickly.

However, they could start processing orders by configuration date when they start volume production for non-reservation holders probably around 27 October. That would be the reasonable thing to do.

 

[Randy7fx]

@Troy not sure if you care, or if there is a way to model off of this, but on my Tesla account page it now indicates "Estimated delivery by late September". Again, take it for what its worth, but wanted you to be aware in the event that it is a data point that would help narrow some of your projections, particularly if multiple people have their delivery date estimate brought forward as well.

P3-, FSD, Black exterior with white Interior, Aeros...

 

[N54TT]

@Troy not sure if you care, or if there is a way to model off of this, but on my Tesla account page it now indicates "Estimated delivery by late September". Again, take it for what its worth, but wanted you to be aware in the event that it is a data point that would help narrow some of your projections, particularly if multiple people have their delivery date estimate brought forward as well.

P3-, FSD, Black exterior with white Interior, Aeros...

I think the work @Troy is doing is great!! But when it comes to especially the P3D...something doesn’t jive. Whether it’s Tesla or @Troy predictions. He has reserved p3d’s being completed in mid October, and non reservations in November. But Tesla is giving us both res and non-res estimate deliveries of end of September. Reservation awd’s He has being completed around same time as p3d’s and yet there are a lot more awd’s than p3d’s. And again Tesla hasn’t changed the estimated times for regular awd...only p3d’s. If you go order now it states within 2 months for p3d and 2-4 for reg awd.

Tesla appears to be prioritizing p3d’s but troys tracker doesn’t reflect that. My first time dealing with Tesla...so are they stockpiling p3d’s and planning on fulfilling all theses orders before awd’s? Or are they just stringing us along and Troy is more accurate?

 

[suwaneedad]

I think the work @Troy is doing is great!! But when it comes to especially the P3D...something doesn’t jive. Whether it’s Tesla or @Troy predictions. He has reserved p3d’s being completed in mid October, and non reservations in November. But Tesla is giving us both res and non-res estimate deliveries of end of September. Reservation awd’s He has being completed around same time as p3d’s and yet there are a lot more awd’s than p3d’s. And again Tesla hasn’t changed the estimated times for regular awd...only p3d’s. If you go order now it states within 2 months for p3d and 2-4 for reg awd.

Tesla appears to be prioritizing p3d’s but troys tracker doesn’t reflect that. My first time dealing with Tesla...so are they stockpiling p3d’s and planning on fulfilling all theses orders before awd’s? Or are they just stringing us along and Troy is more accurate?

History has shown that Troy's work is wayyyyy better than whatever estimates Tesla is putting on their websites or on buyers' account screens. As ObiWan said to Luke early in Episode IV, trust the Troy.

 

[N54TT]

History has shown that Troy's work is wayyyyy better than whatever estimates Tesla is putting on their websites or on buyers' account screens. As ObiWan said to Luke early in Episode IV, trust the Troy.

For my sake and everyone else with p3d’s on order and being given a late sept estimated date....hoping Tesla proves Troy’s tracker wrong. Guess we’ll find out in 4 weeks.

 

[Santa Claws]

Hello Everyone!

New here... Long time lurker, but I finally pulled the trigger and ordered a P3D+ in Obsidian over white with EAP.

Ordered on 23 Aug with no reservation, and I currently have an Oct '18 delivery estimate. No trade-in and paying cash.

I wonder if Tesla places priority on those paying cash...

 

[Randy7fx]

Hello Everyone!

New here... Long time lurker, but I finally pulled the trigger and ordered a P3D+ in Obsidian over white with EAP.

Ordered on 23 Aug with no reservation, and I currently have an Oct '18 delivery estimate. No trade-in and paying cash.

I wonder if Tesla places priority on those paying cash...

I don't think there is any priority to paying cash. Note, as far as Tesla is concerned, anyone who finances with someone other than Tesla (the banks they work with), is paying cash to Tesla. In actuality, there is likely a fairly significant percent who is paying cash to Tesla, and getting a third party loan.

Having said that, your Performance order is absolutely being prioritized, hence a by October delivery as a non owner and non reservation holder.

 

[Santa Claws]

I don't think there is any priority to paying cash. Note, as far as Tesla is concerned, anyone who finances with someone other than Tesla (the banks they work with), is paying cash to Tesla. In actuality, there is likely a fairly significant percent who is paying cash to Tesla, and getting a third party loan.

Having said that, your Performance order is absolutely being prioritized, hence a by October delivery as a non owner and non reservation holder.

The 3rd party bank loan paid in full to Tesla and cash are similar to me. Let's talk Tesla financing vs cash... For a company looking to make themselves profitable going forward as of last quarter, I'd imagine business sense would be to make cash paying customers a priority. That along with their highest revenue generating Model 3s which they are already prioritizing. I believe Tesla is putting financed orders on the back-burner, unless I'm told otherwise.

And one small correction, I just logged into my Tesla account and they changed the delivery estimate to the end of September.

 

[Randy7fx]

I believe Tesla is putting financed orders on the back-burner, unless I'm told otherwise.

And one small correction, I just logged into my Tesla account and they changed the delivery estimate to the end of September.

It seems all Performance models had their delivery estimate changed to "late September". There was a thread over the weekend that was pretty conclusive in terms of performance being pulled forward (it was pulled forward to "By October 2018" on Friday, and then again to "late September" yesterday). No indication that priority is being given based on cash/finance, or that financed orders are placed on the back burner.

 

[Pandamoanium]

Ordered last week, owner of an X and now gone S. Got my VIN today, not sure if it’s a pre-built one but my delivery estimate went from Oct-Nov to September and now back to October.

Performance, performance package, white on white.

 

[ColoradoDave]

Need advice. I reserved Feb 2017, ordered Jun 27th - AWD, MSM, Black interior, sport wheels. Delivery window has always been Sep-Nov. no sign of a vin or any movement, but somewhat hopeful for a late Oct delivery. I am thinking of switching to Perf version. Several in-store salesmen said M3Ps are getting priority. Not sure that is true, but I surely do not want to delay delivery.

I just called the 888 number and was told I'd have to pay a config change fee of $500 to make the change and it would almost certainly delay delivery a month or two. Sounds like it takes a while to even change the order via email form.

What's the data say; do most folks feel an upgrade to AWD-P would delay delivery? Is my late Oct wag reasonable for current delivery with no change? Thanks

 

[Troy]

When trying to decide between the LRD and P3D, people usually think about differences such as free supercharging, 4.4s vs 3.4s 0-60, track mode, stronger brakes, etc. but instead of focusing too much on these details, I would recommend thinking about the ownership duration. Considering how quickly Tesla changed from Model S P85+ without Autopilot to P85D with AP1.0 and Insane Mode and then to P90D and P100D with AP2.5 and Ludicrous Mode, it might not be the best choice to buy the top of the line version for a long time, let's say 4 years or longer. I think 2018 LRD for 2 years + 2020 LRD for 2 years is a better choice than 2018 P for 4 years. But if somebody is planning to buy the P version for only 2 years, then that's an excellent idea too.

@ColoradoDave, I disagree with the idea that changing your order would delay your delivery because LRD and P orders by reservation holders are processed in random order. What the person said was true for LR orders a few months ago.

Based on my calculation, the delivery estimate for reservation holders in Colorado is
8 Sep- 25 Oct for P3D,
8 Sep - 23 Oct for LRD.
Any day between these two dates is equally likely.