Model 3 "pushed back" to 2018?

[AnOutsider]

First, the early (march) 2016 is not a rumour, it is the confirmed Tesla plan.

Did that get confirmed? I saw rumors of it being shown off at an auto show, which isn't usual Tesla fashion, but hadn't heard anything official from Tesla. Link?

And I think TM3 will be much more developed by that time then any of the other cars was when they was first shown. Together with Teslas experience with the S and the X I don't think 2 years from prototype/alfa (remember: Tesla do not show concepts) to delivery is unthinkable.

Yes, Tesla has a "track record" for delays, but why does some people have to put "TM3 will not be ready for 2017!!!!" on repeat? Why are they talking about 2019/2020? TMS - Teslas first car designed form the bottom was "only" one year late if I remember correct?

Well, because of exactly what you said: Tesla is almost always late. It's just being realistic. The same argument about them having more experience could apply to the X as well. Heck, I remember in early 2015 Elon saying they could deliver the X soon, but wanted to do it right (for whatever that meant). Here we are entering September and it still seems they're readying things.

As for the S, If I remember correctly, the Model S was supposed to be 2010, but was soon pushed back. Elon is saying late 2017 which could mean December 2017 to early folks (founders) if lucky, but can easily slip 6+ months. Slip 6 months to mid 2018, and it's not hard to imagine them doing some early deliveries in the summer (to founders) and then a ramp up pushing most deliveries into 2019 if things don't go well.

Let's not forget the Model X is not only late, but they aren't likely to hit many volume deliveries in Q3 2015 either. Most folks will likely get an X in early 2016.

 

[Model 3]

Did that get confirmed? I saw rumors of it being shown off at an auto show, which isn't usual Tesla fashion, but hadn't heard anything official from Tesla. Link?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGHsDqwSY28

Edit: @ around 58 minutes....

Well, because of exactly what you said: Tesla is almost always late. It's just being realistic. The same argument about them having more experience could apply to the X as well. Heck, I remember in early 2015 Elon saying they could deliver the X soon, but wanted to do it right (for whatever that meant). Here we are entering September and it still seems they're readying things.

As for the S, If I remember correctly, the Model S was supposed to be 2010, but was soon pushed back. Elon is saying late 2017 which could mean December 2017 to early folks (founders) if lucky, but can easily slip 6+ months. Slip 6 months to mid 2018, and it's not hard to imagine them doing some early deliveries in the summer (to founders) and then a ramp up pushing most deliveries into 2019 if things don't go well.

Ok, I stand corrected on the one year for TMS

And yes, "Late 2017" may be dec. 2017, and some delay may happen, but "at least one year, probably two or three" is a bit to "realistic" And I stick to what Tesla/Elon has said until they say otherwise, or I see some evidence that it may be delayed. Not just "Tesla has always been late, so they will always be late no matter what".

 

[AnOutsider]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGHsDqwSY28

Edit: @ around 58 minutes....

Thanks, I was focusing on X news, so missed this. Elon is actually sounding pretty reserved here. He says they're shooting for March, but don't hold him to it. He says production in mid to late 2017, but that late 2017 is more realistic. So kudos there to him on that. My personal guess though is that it likely will slip to 2018 anyway.

And yes, "Late 2017" may be dec. 2017, and some delay may happen, but "at least one year, probably two or three" is a bit to "realistic" And I stick to what Tesla/Elon has said until they say otherwise, or I see some evidence that it may be delayed. Not just "Tesla has always been late, so they will always be late no matter what".

I don't see a two to three year delay, but I can see 1 year. It's quite easy for small things to muck up production and the fixes can take a month or two each. So if first deliveries happened April 2018, I wouldn't be too surprised (or put off), to be honest.

 

[wdolson]

Did that get confirmed? I saw rumors of it being shown off at an auto show, which isn't usual Tesla fashion, but hadn't heard anything official from Tesla. Link?

And I think TM3 will be much more developed by that time then any of the other cars was when they was first shown. Together with Teslas experience with the S and the X I don't think 2 years from prototype/alfa (remember: Tesla do not show concepts) to delivery is unthinkable.



Well, because of exactly what you said: Tesla is almost always late. It's just being realistic. The same argument about them having more experience could apply to the X as well. Heck, I remember in early 2015 Elon saying they could deliver the X soon, but wanted to do it right (for whatever that meant). Here we are entering September and it still seems they're readying things.

As for the S, If I remember correctly, the Model S was supposed to be 2010, but was soon pushed back. Elon is saying late 2017 which could mean December 2017 to early folks (founders) if lucky, but can easily slip 6+ months. Slip 6 months to mid 2018, and it's not hard to imagine them doing some early deliveries in the summer (to founders) and then a ramp up pushing most deliveries into 2019 if things don't go well.

Let's not forget the Model X is not only late, but they aren't likely to hit many volume deliveries in Q3 2015 either. Most folks will likely get an X in early 2016.

I heard somewhere in the last week or so that the latest delay in Model X production is training the robots in the factory to build both cars. Apparently the plan is to build both cars on the same production lines with robots that can do both. Whenever you're engineering anything small details cropping up at the last minute can really mess up a release schedule. I've experienced it in my own projects.

 

[Model 3]

Elon is actually sounding pretty reserved here. He says they're shooting for March, but don't hold him to it.

Yes, it's not "written on stone", I just pointed out that it's not just a rumour.

I don't see a two to three year delay, but I can see 1 year. It's quite easy for small things to muck up production and the fixes can take a month or two each. So if first deliveries happened April 2018, I wouldn't be too surprised (or put off), to be honest.

Yes, that part was not pointed at you, more like an general observation. Sorry if it could be misunderstood. It was pointed at all that says pretty confident that it will not be delivered in 2017 and probably not even in 2018. "TMS was two years delayed, TMX is even more... No way we will see it until 2019/2020". Tesla say 2017, and I believe it will happen then. Will there be delays? Maybe, maybe not... A couple of month? It can happen with the best... Half a year? Well, it can happen, but heads will roll... More then one year? No way! More then a year delay on TM3 will easily be the death of Tesla Motors, and they know it....

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, that part was not pointed at you, more like an general observation. Sorry if it could be misunderstood. It was pointed at all that says pretty confident that it will not be delivered in 2017 and probably not even in 2018. "TMS was two years delayed, TMX is even more... No way we will see it until 2019/2020". Tesla say 2017, and I believe it will happen then. Will there be delays? Maybe, maybe not... A couple of month? It can happen with the best... Half a year? Well, it can happen, but heads will roll... More then one year? No way! More then a year delay on TM3 will easily be the death of Tesla Motors, and they know it....

It can NOT be delayed by more than a small window. Tesla has to answer to business partners where the Model 3 is concerned. With the Gigafactory on, or ahead of schedule and Tesla's own Model 3 production numbers made public (and quite likely on signed paper with Panasonic) - not going to see a year delay. I'd venture a guess they have a 3-6 month window.

 

[Crowded Mind]

The reveal was also reiterated in the 2nd paragraph of the Q2 Shareholder Letter.

In Q4, we will ramp production and delivery ofTesla Energy products, and in Q1 2016 we plan to reveal the Model 3 design, with first deliveries expected in late 2017.

 

[Red Sage]

The Tesla Roadster was the only Generation I vehicle in their stable. The Model S was never supposed to be the singular Tesla Generation II vehicle. From the moment that the skateboard principle was unveiled as a primary engineering platform, it was revealed there would be a sedan and SUV/Crossover as part of Generation II. Too many people incorrectly confuse Model ≡ with Generation III, and then go on to claim the Model X was some kind of afterthought.

If Tesla Motors had released the Model X in 2013 it would not have been as good a vehicle as it will be this year. Shipments of both Model S and Model X would have been delayed further due to a lack of battery cell deliveries from Panasonic. The expansion of sales throughout Europe would have been significantly affected. Right hand drive territories the world over may not have begun to receive cars at all until Q2 or Q3 of 2015 at the earliest.

Tesla Motors made the correct decision by delaying Model X to make the most of unexpected popularity of Model S, which grew well beyond their wildest hopes before the end of 2013, and continued to do so through 2014.

 

[strider]

Yes, Tesla has a "track record" for delays, but why does some people have to put "TM3 will not be ready for 2017!!!!" on repeat? Why are they talking about 2019/2020? TMS - Teslas first car designed form the bottom was "only" one year late if I remember correct?

And then Model X was 2 years late. See a pattern here? Some of us have been dealing with Tesla for many years. We speak from experience and nothing Tesla has done recently would cause me to change my opinion.

Look, everyone saying that Model 3 will be on time because they've "already figured it out with Models S and X" I believe are wrong. Tesla has already stated that Model 3 won't just be a scaled down Model S/X and will use different materials (steel, composites, whatever). That will create a learning curve for Tesla to overcome. Yes, they learned how to cast and stamp aluminum but now they'll have to learn how to stamp steel or lay up composites. This will take longer than they realize because they ALWAYS underestimate the time things will take. So yes, the drivetrain part is dialed but the rest of the car is far from it. For evidence, witness Model X. It has the EXACT same drivetrains as Model S yet it's still 2 years late. So it was "all the other stuff" that made it late. I believe the same will be true for Model 3.

 

[wdolson]

And then Model X was 2 years late. See a pattern here? Some of us have been dealing with Tesla for many years. We speak from experience and nothing Tesla has done recently would cause me to change my opinion.

Look, everyone saying that Model 3 will be on time because they've "already figured it out with Models S and X" I believe are wrong. Tesla has already stated that Model 3 won't just be a scaled down Model S/X and will use different materials (steel, composites, whatever). That will create a learning curve for Tesla to overcome. Yes, they learned how to cast and stamp aluminum but now they'll have to learn how to stamp steel or lay up composites. This will take longer than they realize because they ALWAYS underestimate the time things will take. So yes, the drivetrain part is dialed but the rest of the car is far from it. For evidence, witness Model X. It has the EXACT same drivetrains as Model S yet it's still 2 years late. So it was "all the other stuff" that made it late. I believe the same will be true for Model 3.

Tesla is primarily run by engineers, which is a good and a bad thing. On the upside, they know what they're doing, on the downside, they are wildly optimistic about how long things take. It's a failing common to most engineers. I've been able to make accurate schedules when I've had to, but I had to be as pessimistic as possible and the reality hit my most pessimistic prediction. Our part was done a year before anyone else.

 

[Model 3]

And then Model X was 2 years late. See a pattern here? Some of us have been dealing with Tesla for many years. We speak from experience and nothing Tesla has done recently would cause me to change my opinion.

Well, I have not had any "dealing" with Tesla, but have followed them closely for many years, so I have also seen/experienced the same delays as others have. But I see a bit past this "they have had delays earlier, then they will always be late!" view that you represent. As a small upstart they could make delays, and is almost expected to make delays. But as a big auto maker you can't survive if your always late. So at one point they will have to learn how to make it on time (a few month +/- is of no big concern). And TM3 is not only a good point to make that change, it is the point where they have to make that change.


... on the other hand, in my book the TM3 is already 20 years delayed This is the car I have waited for since the '90th....

 

[KJD]

The Giga factory is the key to when the Model 3 shows up. The best thing that could happen is they are both production ready at the same time.

If the model 3 is as late as the X is late then things could get ugly.

 

[EVNow]

I think one point to consider is the financial cost of delays. X delay has forced Tesla to issue more stock, for eg. Tesla may need to get 3 out of the door in time to keep from issuing a lot more stock.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I think people have to keep in mind what Elon did with Model S (his bet with Dan Neil). He was able to rush out the signature models to win that bet and I am guessing Elon will put a similar amount of priority into doing that for the Model 3.

For the Model X however I don't believe Tesla really made it a huge priority to rush it out. Getting the X out on time wasn't as mission critical given how well the Model S sales are doing.

 

[S'toon]

It was my understanding that a lot of the delay of the X was those falcon wing doors. Model 3 they have a lot of the technological teething issues already solved with the S and the X. So all they have to do is finalize the optimal body for looks and drag, then squeeze the already mature technology into it.

 

[strider]

It was my understanding that a lot of the delay of the X was those falcon wing doors. Model 3 they have a lot of the technological teething issues already solved with the S and the X. So all they have to do is finalize the optimal body for looks and drag, then squeeze the already mature technology into it.

Let's hope but Tesla has already stated that Model 3 will not be built like Model S and X as they are too expensive. So for instance if the body panels are steel they'll have to learn how to stamp and paint them. If they use some composites like the BMW i3 there's a learning curve there. That sounds simple but it will take time. And odds are it will take longer than Tesla thinks.

 

[MassModel3]

It was my understanding that a lot of the delay of the X was those falcon wing doors. Model 3 they have a lot of the technological teething issues already solved with the S and the X. So all they have to do is finalize the optimal body for looks and drag, then squeeze the already mature technology into it.

I don't know that anybody's officially said what the delay was caused by, other than the promise of a no compromise vehicle that greatly surpasses everybody's expectations, and then impresses even more.

No doubt there was a bit of a technological hurdle with the falcon wing doors, but if that's the most amazing thing in the X, future owners are going to be deeply disappointed after waiting all these years. That being said, the 3 won't have any new bleeding edge technology -- it will borrow from the S and the X and keep the design limited to prior experience and knowledge.

 

[Red Sage]

See a pattern here?

Sure. I see a pattern of doubting, bellyaching, and naysaying.

Some of us have been dealing with Tesla for many years. We speak from experience and nothing Tesla has done recently would cause me to change my opinion.

So... Your experience counts, but none of Tesla Motors' does?

This will take longer than they realize because they ALWAYS underestimate the time things will take.

Someone noted, on another thread, how Tesla Motors takes on nigh impossible tasks, tries to do them in a year... But they 'slip' to take a whole three years instead... To do what anyone else would have needed ten years to do. You know what? I can forgive that. Sorry that you can't.

It's a failing common to most engineers.

This is a fair assessment. However, it seems to be a whole lot worse with architects. I worked at a firm where they would say anything to get a project. Accept any fee... Any timetable... No matter how ridiculous. Outright lie to secure a contract? Yup. Get a job that ought to take 16 weeks to complete, promise to have it done in six, then not assign me to it until the last week before deadline because I 'cost too much'... The overtime check for that week was always nice, though.

X delay has forced Tesla to issue more stock...

Nope. It was a strategic maneuver. They would have done it anyway. Methinks they expect that TSLA will climb over $320 for good due to the Model X launch. By doing a stock issue early, ahead of the Model X release, they get money for nothin' and their chicks for free. Expect to see the same thing happen again, right before the Model ≡ launch. Just watch.

And odds are it will take longer than Tesla thinks.

Maybe. So what? Someone, somewhere (probably not me) will still get a Tesla Model ≡ before 12:01 am PST January 1, 2018. And probably a good couple months before that date. Not quite as good as the June/July 2017 date I would prefer, but as the saying goes, "That'll do, pig. That'll do."

 

[strider]

Someone noted, on another thread, how Tesla Motors takes on nigh impossible tasks, tries to do them in a year... But they 'slip' to take a whole three years instead... To do what anyone else would have needed ten years to do. You know what? I can forgive that. Sorry that you can't.

You misunderstand my intent. I'm not mad or upset at Tesla in any way. I'm simply trying to inject some realism into their time estimates especially for people who are new here and new to Tesla to hopefully head off some of the disappointment.

 

[Bret with 1 t]

I don't know that anybody's officially said what the delay was caused by

During an earnings call last year, Elon said the falcon wing doors were challenging and they wanted to make sure they were perfect. To me that sounds like the falcon wing doors to some extra trial and error with engineering.