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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
even if unorganized imagine all the employees and fanboys there are for Chevy, VW, Toyota, Ford, etcetera that'd love to make Tesla look bad
employee A says "I'll do this to show my coworkers and joke about it then cancel later and complain about how bad Tesla is for the economy"
fanboy B says "I want to roll coal and those damn tree hugging liberal EV people make me mad, I'll show them"
fanboy C says "darn, this Model 3 will kill my favorite (insert EV/hybrid/deisel/fuel cell/gas car here) I've got to slow them down somehow and spew my hate while I'm at it"
multiply that by the millions of people on the planet that care about cars more than the average person and even if they are a small percentage there will be some that do it and they'll add up.
I don't expect it is a large percentage of orders and whatever funny business Tesla culls will be more than offset by renewed interest after the Model 3 Reveal - Part 2.
Consider this. I'm a strong supporter of TSLA, strong desire to switch away from gas cars, I made the transition to the Prius when that wasn't cool, and the transition to Leaf before Tesla was affordable. I really really want a Tesla but I haven't put a reservation in for Model 3 yet.
I guarantee there are plenty of people like me not ready to pull the trigger on a Tesla yet that might get pulled in after the Part 2 reveal or might order unrelated to that reveal when their finances allow.
nexsuperne101
Closed
Does anyone know when the part 2 reveal will be? Is it later this year? My money is down, just waiting for that call 
melindav
☰ 2018
@dhanson865 - I think this article sums up when those EV/Tesla naysayers will be having a hard time keeping up their argument
If the trend shown here is at all accurate, 10 years from now (let alone 25) will be quite different than today
And Telsa is set up to be the major player in new car sales
If the trend shown here is at all accurate, 10 years from now (let alone 25) will be quite different than today
And Telsa is set up to be the major player in new car sales
Does anyone know when the part 2 reveal will be? Is it later this year? My money is down, just waiting for that call
We don't know. Likely to be close to production. Components of part 2 likely to be autopilot, heads up display, battery improvements, etc. The production car will be better than the reveal (Elon Musk).
There's a few models going on. There's a thread about it linked in the first post (Chart for Model 3 reservations — cumulative and hourly) and another external web site Tesla Model 3 Reservation Counter (I haven't been able to validate their counter, but seems close).
You might want to take a look at 'clean disruption' video and/or book.
Linear projections like that one are much too conservative.
Like other similar transitions Tony Seba suggests that this transition could be over by 2025/2030 (except for the cars already sold.)
Have to think that the Tesla Model 3 Reservation Tracker site is not quite accurate. I submitted my reservation late 4/01, and received the confim e-mail at 4:20am on 4/02. The site says my Estimated Spot in Line is 307,266 with Estimated Delivery Date of Feb 2020. From what I've seen on confirmed reservation figures, I'm much closer to the 200,00 - 225,000 range, and have been anticipating delivery in late 2018 / early 2019.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
Wow - I just went through the Tony Seba presentation. I'm convinced.
Now - should I be an early adopter and ride the downward slope, every day noticing there is better stuff than what I just bought?
Or buy with planned obsolesce? Or limp along on my very serviceable ICE units until 2020 when the 80% saturation happens?
I don't know how to embrace his vision. Any suggestions?
I'll have to agree with this as well, I submitted mine 5 minutes BEFORE online preorders officially opened on 3/31, and a full hour before Elon announced the 115,000 figure at the reveal.
Tesla 3 Counter is giving me a line position of 269,082 and an estimated January 2020 delivery. I would assume I'm at least closer to the 90,000 to 100,00 range.
N5329K
Active Member
Apart from the fact that no one on the list will get their car as soon as they might wish, I think there's likely a problem with the algorithm. GIGO?
Robin
Robin
heysteveh
Member
I agree as my results also seem inaccurate: Reservation made a 3/31 a few minutes before the reveal started. Confirmation e-mail received 4/1@4:28pm. The site estimate: spot #298,492, delivery Feb. 2020. I reserved BEFORE the reveal started, and during the reveal they announced they had 115,000 reservations, of which I was one. The only thing I can figure that is skewing there estimate is that perhaps I received the confirmation email from tesla later then others did.
I reserved in store on 3/31 to help amplify the 'voices' of others.
For me, I was unprepared to join the 'S' generation. I plan to enjoy a m3 with 10-20k of options. And help drive down the slope.
What comes next depends on when I need to buy another for 'my' use once my wife changes her mind...
Any suggestions on how to get her disinterest in writing? ;-)
StapleGun
Member
The main counter on the page estimates 446,000. All we've heard from Tesla is "getting close to 400,000" and "about 400,000" so I think 446,000 is very high at this point.
NickHoffmann
Member
If you have used the supposed Model 3 reservation tracker, I would be very careful. You blindly gave a website your real name and a valid email address. That is a huge step towards getting into significantly more important accounts (banks etc.) for a halfway skilled phishing scammer.
The website was not posted by Tesla and therefore is 100% fake. If the password you used for this fake site is anything near any other passwords you regularly use, I would highly recommend you change them immediately.
I confirmed that it is fake as shown in the image below. I used the name "Nice Try" and a spam email account I have. It came through saying I had a valid reservation.
The website was not posted by Tesla and therefore is 100% fake. If the password you used for this fake site is anything near any other passwords you regularly use, I would highly recommend you change them immediately.
I confirmed that it is fake as shown in the image below. I used the name "Nice Try" and a spam email account I have. It came through saying I had a valid reservation.
Attachments
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
I too signed onto this - and then asked to be removed. Bquin responded with an email that they were removing my data.
If "the other guys" wanted to wreck havoc - tell the early reservation holders they are late holders, and wait for the fallout, and then have a perp-walk to show over subscriptions. Perhaps this was/is a good site, but I agree with NickHoffmann that the could be more spam than good.
If "the other guys" wanted to wreck havoc - tell the early reservation holders they are late holders, and wait for the fallout, and then have a perp-walk to show over subscriptions. Perhaps this was/is a good site, but I agree with NickHoffmann that the could be more spam than good.
I think Breezy's point was that your 3/31/2016 (whether 8am or 10:00) was only 3/30/2016 here in the West. Which would require a reset of 'zero hour' back at that point.
My online reservation was at about 1:15am EDT 4/1 but my confirmation from Tesla says my reservation was confirmed on 3/31 so it would appear they were basing this on PDT (Pacific or West coast US time).
I'd say whatever algorithm is being used is full of holes. I put in the actual time I made the reservation (10:30 AM on the 31st, Eastern time) and it said I was in the 240,000 range and expected delivery was Dec 2019.
If nothing else, I don't think they realize that North America gets cars first. If they have the one guy in Australia as #1 on their list, that's just wrong.
Also they don't have any way of knowing how optioned individual's cars will be, meaning they can't judge where that moves them around in the queue.
If nothing else, I don't think they realize that North America gets cars first. If they have the one guy in Australia as #1 on their list, that's just wrong.
Also they don't have any way of knowing how optioned individual's cars will be, meaning they can't judge where that moves them around in the queue.
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