Wiki Model 3 Reservation Tally

[igorEV]

May want to also account for Elon's tweet about people who reserved before the unveil likely getting cars in 2017

 

[Jayc]

All this prediction and estimation has actually got me worried. We have absolutely no way of knowing what Tesla has recorded as our position in the order queue. If we simply think of this in its very basic form where we have a single order queue and each of us have a definite position, it would be very critical that our exact time of order be recorded for each of us to be at the right point in the queue. So far my_tesla gives us our order date but I would think that will only guarantee a position of +/- 100k or so - a huge range for error.

Hmm this is not good at all ...

Actually thinking about this further, I have a suspicion Tesla did not record our position at all. So the person from UK who ordered on the same day but 2 hours later might even get his or her car before me.

 

[p-f-g]

Actually thinking about this further, I have a suspicion Tesla did not record our position at all. So the person from UK who ordered on the same day but 2 hours later might even get his or her car before me.

The database storing the orders has a column auto populated with the "now()" date and time to the millisecond.

 

[MassModel3]

Since Tesla stores across the US started taking orders locally at 10 AM, my assumption is that California is NOT going to have 3 hours worth of reservations queued up ahead of the east coast, but rather it's calculated as local time minus 10 hours for everyone in the US. And I assume that around the world similar calculations were made. This way, people aren't penalized for where they live, and the first person in line at an east coast store is at roughly the same position in the queue as the first person in line in a west coast store.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

if one was trying to torpedo the inertia of Tesla, telling enthusiastic buyers they have an excessive long wait might do it. could you be trolled?

 

[Breezy]

May want to also account for Elon's tweet about people who reserved before the unveil likely getting cars in 2017

That's a tricky one. I'm not sure how many people believe that projection. Some relatively supportive sources didn't believe the original 500,000 by 2020 projection. I'd leave it until we have some better indication of how much progress is actually being made.

 

[melindav]

Hmm this is not good at all ...

Actually thinking about this further, I have a suspicion Tesla did not record our position at all. So the person from UK who ordered on the same day but 2 hours later might even get his or her car before me.

really? this is what you are concerned about? I am sure the person that ordered 2 hours after you will have their vehicle on the same ship floating across the Atlantic as yours, assuming you both get your configurations completed in a timely manner. Are you going to expect yours to be loaded off that ship prior to his?

 

[SCW-Greg]

So www.tesla3counter.com has been mentioned by a few people since I last logged on, so its a been hard to quote just one person but I'll try to address the main points. An update first: I'll admit, version 1.0 of our algorithm was a bit off - but it gave us something to build off of, and now we're pretty excited because we have a version 2.0 of the algorithm that we're finished designing and working on adding to the website (should be live sometime around May 11th 2016). This version incorporates some cool features, and should provide a better estimate. We'll be noting it on your account when you log in, but we've included a simple machine learning feature, we've also refined the way priority is given to current owners and employees, and we've updated the production rates given the new information from the most recent investor call.

Okay, I have serious questions about Official email response from Tesla, vs what I know for the time frame I was in the store that morning -- as some of our group was getting email response from Tesla later that day and evening, while some of us did not receive emails from Tesla until the following day. I was number 7 registered and out the door at our location by 10:07am (ish) - Portland (West Coast). But got email at 2:43pm the next day.

How do you reconcile these email delay differences from our personal registration timing (from our group) at our store?

Also I have sold my Model S (I know call me crazy), but the Model 3 is the car that I can really afford (getting kids ready for college and all). I have some good connections with many people at Tesla (crossing fingers), but officially I am not a "current" owner. I put myself down as one in your system... but I would think technically I might be at the end of the Model S owner priority scale. Purgatory registration limbo for me. Hmmm...

I entered (optimistically) the actual timeframe I was there and registered in the store, and as a (current) Tesla owner. I like my number Version 2.0 - in the low 9,000 range, but I doubt I am really that prioritized.

Did I cheat your system???

 

[JeffC]

Wow - I just went through the Tony Seba presentation. I'm convinced.
Now - should I be an early adopter and ride the downward slope, every day noticing there is better stuff than what I just bought?
Or buy with planned obsolesce? Or limp along on my very serviceable ICE units until 2020 when the 80% saturation happens?
I don't know how to embrace his vision. Any suggestions?

The key factor in EV cost reduction and therefore mass adoption is the battery pack. Fortunately battery packs are very modular and replaceable, especially Tesla's. Therefore if you get an EV now, you can benefit immediately from it, and replace the pack many years later with one that costs less or has more capacity. The recent rate of improvements in Lithium ion batteries has been 5 to 8 percent a year, which is about 100% compounded over 10 years. So in 10 years the packs will double in capacity or halve in cost. (Also battery packs last a lot longer than 10 years, especially with good thermal and charge management, so replacement won't be needed for a long time.)

 

[plankeye]

I think you guys need to take people's word for when they reserved and use that date/time instead of the confirmation email receipt time. If people aren't honest, then they will likely just get an overly-optimistic delivery estimation. Forget about the CC processing. I think Tesla will be going by when their system initially processed the reservation, not when the CC company cleared the transaction.

 

[iawlael]

TBH, I didn't even put my email receipt time in as I didn't get a confirmation email until 5 days later. I used the time I entered my preorder and I'm still in the 140k range according to the counter; and I reserved hour before the reveal.

This may be a fun side project site but there is no way that they can possibly accurate estimate the queue without insider knowledge of Tesla's reservation numbering system.

 

[Langmuir]

So, I tried it out...

The date and time you provided for your email confirmation was: 04/17/2016 09:00AM (Europe/Brussels).

Based on the above information, your estimated position in line is 448,778 and shipping date is January 2019.

This is quite fast, probably because of the ramped up production announcement...

I will still have a loan on my then, expected late 2019 delivery (actually, I still think it will be something like that).

 

[Scannerman]

The Model S gets about 90 miles per gallon equivalent (33.7 kWh of electricity). The Model 3 is 20% smaller and perhaps as efficient, it may be more than efficient than this but lets just say the Model 3 will get 100 miles per gallon equivalent.

So look at your electric bill and see how much you pay for each kWh of electricity and multiply by 33.7 per 100 miles. The US average is about 12 cents / kWh. At 250 miles per week, you'll be paying about $10 / week, if you only charge at home. If you supercharge, you may get those miles for free (depending on how Tesla rolls out supercharging for the M3).

You might find some odometer readings in you maintenance or Insurance records, that would prove very helpful regarding annual mileage. Thomas Edison doesn't care much about the frequency with which you charge. You should begin by analyzing your utility bill and determining your true cost per kWh (kilowatt hour). And even that rate may be adjusted downward, once you purchase an electric vehicle, and qualify for a rate structure called 'Time of Use 2'. (This is the terminology used by the San Diego Gas & Electric). I can not speak for your utility company. Their are a lot of great calculators available at different web sites.

Scannerman

 

[schonelucht]

Seems the tally in the wiki is a bit too optimistic. From Tesla's latest SEC filing :

On March 31, 2016, we unveiled Model 3, a lower priced sedan designed for the mass market, and as of May 15, 2016, we held deposits from about 373,000 customers who had made reservations for this car.
​

That is after customers cancelled 8000 orders (2%) and Tesla themselves purged another 4000 (1%).

 

[osu_cowboy_007]

Are these (373k) U.S specific orders or for all the countries?

 

[flankspeed8]

Are these (373k) U.S specific orders or for all the countries?

It would be total worldwide reservations as of 5/15/16.

 

[osu_cowboy_007]

It would be total worldwide reservations as of 5/15/16.

Seems bit low given the fact that there were several reports / tweets of 400k+ orders back in April itself.

 

[03DSG]

One article I read the guy reserved 20 of them. Tesla later cancelled and refunded deposits for any more than 2 cars per person. Apparently a relatively small percent ordered 2. Plus possibly there were people that put down a deposit and later cancelled due to needing the money or feeling they were to far down list and couldn't wait that long. I believe the SEC filing number would have to be somewhat accurate.

 

[gregincal]

Seems bit low given the fact that there were several reports / tweets of 400k+ orders back in April itself.

I think the only thing they ever said was that reservations were approaching 400K. Now they have stated in an official government corporate filing that they have 373K reservations (after 12K orders were removed), so that seems pretty certain.

 

[SCW-Greg]

Site has been pulled?