Model 3 reveal effect on other luxury car sales

[Reciprocity]

I predict Model 3 sales will go up the highest percentage of any other car on this list. IK going out on a limb here

If its anything like the Model S, at 40% market share has more share then the next 5 models combined. Looking at this list, you almost need to include high end Camrys and Accords to make it fair.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Looks like bolt and Prius plugin split the sales of Prius.

Wag:. Everything else 7% drop in sales could be attributed to bad car sales year.

Sedan sales have been expected to collapse for a while now, Model 3 or no Model 3. people are buying bigger vehicles

 

[SpiceWare]

Wag:. Everything else 7% drop in sales could be attributed to bad car sales year.

Seems like it should be a good year for car sales considering the hundreds of thousands of cars destroyed by Harvey and Irma.

 

[RobStark]

Sedan sales have been expected to collapse for a while now, Model 3 or no Model 3. people are buying bigger vehicles

Americans will buy over 3.5M sedans this year.

Regardaless of whether Tesla makes 100 Model 3s per week or 10,000.

 

[vigge50]

Americans will buy over 3.5M sedans this year.

Regardaless of whether Tesla makes 100 Model 3s per week or 10,000.

Now I don’t know exactly how many of this are sedans but the total sales of cars in US are down 10,3% for the first 11 month this year. Some of this loss is compensated by higher SUV and truck sales but not all of it so the total vehicle market in US is going down a bit.

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html

 

[ValueAnalyst]

November Update:

Tough to allocate the drop between Model 3 vs. lowers oil prices in 205/16/17 shifting demand to crossovers/SUVs

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I thought I would start another thread similar to my Model S and Model X sales trackers. But this time to see what affect the announcement of the Model 3 reveal, and the reveal itself had on the sales of comparable luxury cars. Not sure exactly when they announced that the reveal would be on 3-31-16, so I'll start out by tracking 2016 sales versus 2015 sales. People knew the reveal was coming, but didn't yet know the specifics. What we see below so far might be categorized as the "Coming of the Model 3" affect. There are of course other reasons for the fluctuations, I'm just presenting the numbers and you all can draw your own conclusions.

Starting with the April sales numbers, we should start seeing the first indication of people stopping purchases based on what they found out about the Model 3. And there are certainly a lot of people planning on buying a Model 3, so you would expect sales of other manufacturers comparable models to decrease to some degree.

Both 2015 and 2016 will have been impacted by lower oil prices shifting demand to crossovers/SUVs.

I wonder what the total units sold for the larger group was in 2014, because I think demand will shift back to autos as oil prices are rising.

And I don't think demand will shift back to ICE autos.......

 

[wdolson]

Minivans followed by SUVs, people realized that some kind of hatchback vehicle was more convenient for hauling than a sedan. Back when sedans were the king of the market, places like Home Depot and Ikea didn't exist. If you bought new furniture or something else big, it came on a delivery truck a few days later. Now you buy it and take it home that day. People like having hauling capability. A lot of people also like the better visibility from vehicles that are more up in the air.

In the US, Americans are also getting bigger. Obesity has become a problem, but people are also just taller than they used to be. My father was average height for caucasians of his generation (born in 1920) and he is 5' 8" (a little shorter now due to some osteoporosis). I'm close to average height for my generation (early Gen X) and I'm 6' 2". I once got a ride in a WW II B-24 and they told us we could ride in the tail turret if we wanted to. I started to get in and realized I could not fit and I'm not overweight, I'm just too dang tall.

Vehicles that are more upright are easier to get in and out of by people with mobility problems. And US trucks are the only vehicle class where I never worry about having enough leg room. Sedans are very hit and miss. Some have enough, some don't, even larger sedans. I didn't fit in the Toyota Avalon.

Wagons fell out of favor in the US, but they are still popular in Europe. I think Ford should experiment selling some Ford Focus wagons. They might find Americans are willing to go back to the wagon. The wagon segment in the US has been very limited in recent years. I think the Subaru Outback is the only wagon actually made in the US.

Anyway, once the Model 3 hits its stride, it would be interesting to see how it stacks up against the family sedan segment. I have a feeling it will put a lot of pressure on the mid-sized (most are full sized by EPA rules, but they started out as mid-sized) sedan segment which includes the Camry, Accord, Focus, Malibu, etc. The initial Model 3 buyers are coming from all sorts of vehicles and are mostly Tesla enthusiasts who have followed the company, but once those orders are filled, there will be a growing segment of former ICE buyers who never considered buying an EV before. That's when the disruption really starts. I believe a fair number of those people will be those driving those mid-sized sedans today.

 

[RubberToe]

Slow motion Prius train wreck still in full swing, this is normal Prius plus Prius Plug-In:

2015: 118,493
2016: 101,113
2017: 86,000

Its going to be really interesting to watch 2018 unfold, and see how the Model 3 outsells every single car on the list. I may have to start a new thread to start comparing the Model 3 sales to the top 20 selling cars in the U.S. Its Showtime people !

The BMW 4 and 5 series both had nice yearly increases in a declining market.

RT

 

[SageBrush]

Slow motion Prius train wreck still in full swing, this is normal Prius plus Prius Plug-In:

From wikipedia:

The second generation Prius Prime was released to retail customers in the U.S. in November 2016,[10] and in Japan in February 2017.[8] Toyota expects to sell up to 60,000 units globally a year, with Japan accounting for more than half of those sales.[8] Global cumulative sales of both Prius plug-in generations totaled 79,300 units at the end of January 2017.

 

[vigge50]

Thanks for great work in your three threads, they all will but especially this thread will be very interesting to follow next year.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here are the final EV/PHEV production numbers for the US in 2017 ... Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[LectrikPower]

Hopefully 2018 is the year the haters eat massive Crow. This is almost as important to me as accelerating the adoption of sustainable transport.

 

[RubberToe]

Hopefully 2018 is the year the haters eat massive Crow. This is almost as important to me as accelerating the adoption of sustainable transport.

Someone likened the Model 3 rollout to the Ford Model T rollout. The world will never be the same.

RT

 

[Chopr147]

2018 may be a big year for the Model 3 but 2020 still looks like the game changer year

 

[Trips]

The BMW 4 and 5 series both had nice yearly increases in a declining market.

RT

I like to look at the BMW 3-series and 4-series combined for the Model 3 comparison.
2017 - 99,083 (-6.7%)
2016 - 106,221 (-24.5%)
2015 - 140,609 (-1.3%)
2014 - 142,232 (+19.0%)
2013 - 119,521 (+20.0%)
2012 - 99,602 (+5.5%)

Month over Month Change vs previous year
2017 - Decline 9 of 12 months
2016 - Decline all 12 months
2015 - Growth the first 6 months, Decline 4 of the last 6.

Lexus has been taking a beating across the board for several years now.

 

[wdolson]

2018 may be a big year for the Model 3 but 2020 still looks like the game changer year

I agree, the Model 3's impact on the rest of the car industry is not going to hit until Tesla gets through the backlog of pre-orders. The people who made a reservation for the Model 3 weren't really shopping for another brand of car. When the wait for a Model 3 is fairly short (on par with the wait for a Model S/X today), then we will probably see people cross shopping the Model 3 and other cars.

 

[vigge50]

I like to look at the BMW 3-series and 4-series combined for the Model 3 comparison.
2017 - 99,083 (-6.7%)
2016 - 106,221 (-24.5%)
2015 - 140,609 (-1.3%)
2014 - 142,232 (+19.0%)
2013 - 119,521 (+20.0%)
2012 - 99,602 (+5.5%)

Month over Month Change vs previous year
2017 - Decline 9 of 12 months
2016 - Decline all 12 months
2015 - Growth the first 6 months, Decline 4 of the last 6.

Lexus has been taking a beating across the board for several years now.

One thing that should be looked at is how X3 have change in sales the latest years. More and more people are moving to SUV so all the drop happened in this segment won’t be because of Model 3.

 

[Reciprocity]

One thing that should be looked at is how X3 have change in sales the latest years. More and more people are moving to SUV so all the drop happened in this segment won’t be because of Model 3.

Until model y reservations open up.

 

[seattlite2004]

Wonder if Model S sales are gonna be impacted by Tesla's latest and greatest....