Model 3 reveal effect on other luxury car sales

[Garlan Garner]

Wonder if Model S sales are gonna be impacted by Tesla's latest and greatest....

There is absolutely no way to determine if the Model 3 is affecting anything from this chart. One would need running data to know if any car is affecting another.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I like to look at the BMW 3-series and 4-series combined for the Model 3 comparison.
2017 - 99,083 (-6.7%)
2016 - 106,221 (-24.5%)
2015 - 140,609 (-1.3%)
2014 - 142,232 (+19.0%)
2013 - 119,521 (+20.0%)
2012 - 99,602 (+5.5%)

Month over Month Change vs previous year
2017 - Decline 9 of 12 months
2016 - Decline all 12 months
2015 - Growth the first 6 months, Decline 4 of the last 6.

Lexus has been taking a beating across the board for several years now.

I believe the decline in auto sales across the entire market is due to the decline in the economy AND the fact that cars are now lasting much much longer than they ever have.

Also....used car sales are blowing up.

 

[wdolson]

Sedans are also a dying breed. Americans are buying more and more trucks and SUVs while overseas hatchbacks are popular. Station wagons are uncommon now in the US, but they are common in Europe. There is even a Ford Fusion station wagon in Europe that is not sold in the states, though I saw one the other day.

By the time it became clear the sedan was a dying segment the Model 3's design was probably fairly advanced, but I do think it would have been a better move for Tesla to come out with the Y first.

 

[ℬête Noire]

By the time it became clear the sedan was a dying segment the Model 3's design was probably fairly advanced, but I do think it would have been a better move for Tesla to come out with the Y first.

I expect it'd be very hard to hit the 35K bottom target with a crossover. I expect the Y prices to be pushing back up towards the Model S range.

 

[Reciprocity]

I expect it'd be very hard to hit the 35K bottom target with a crossover. I expect the Y prices to be pushing back up towards the Model S range.

If the most Y follow the S vs X pricing maybe. But I'm thinking that the Y could be cheaper. Tough I think this is very unlikely. The reason is that they chose to do a sedan first. This is clearly a less popular car vs a cuv or smaller sub like the Y. One thing is clear, Tesla makes vehicles that can fill multiple segments. The Y could be made cheap enough to make it more competitive on the low end while still having many options to bring it up to an ipace level. I still think this is unlikely, but the idea is that Tesla improves production automation and more factories for Y vs model 3. One hint will be no falcon wing doors.

 

[ℬête Noire]

If the most Y follow the S vs X pricing maybe. But I'm thinking that the Y could be cheaper. Tough I think this is very unlikely. The reason is that they chose to do a sedan first. This is clearly a less popular car vs a cuv or smaller sub like the Y. One thing is clear, Tesla makes vehicles that can fill multiple segments. The Y could be made cheap enough to make it more competitive on the low end while still having many options to bring it up to an ipace level. I still think this is unlikely, but the idea is that Tesla improves production automation and more factories for Y vs model 3. One hint will be no falcon wing doors.

I certainly don't expect a bottom of Model S to bottom of Model X sized jump in price. Probably closer to a low $40K's price tag. They might try hit $39K to keep it below the $40K mental barrier but that'll be tough.

 

[Reciprocity]

I certainly don't expect a bottom of Model S to bottom of Model X sized jump in price. Probably closer to a low $40K's price tag. They might try hit $39K to keep it below the $40K mental barrier but that'll be tough.

I did not mean it to sound like you did. Just that X is more expensive then S, by just $5K. I would assume the model 3 vs Y would be less then that and $4k sounds about right, but could even an even smaller difference. I just think there is a very outside chance that they will have a version that is $5K less then the model 3. I think this chance is like 5%. They would need to make a pretty big leap in automation and production speed/efficiency between now and the model Y volume production.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I did not mean it to sound like you did. Just that X is more expensive then S, by just $5K. I would assume the model 3 vs Y would be less then that and $4k sounds about right, but could even an even smaller difference.

Huh, hadn't realized Tesla closed that gap to $5K. When the X came out the gap was a lot bigger, more like $8K. Even though Tesla had intended it to be $5K. That'd be the "new" part, I guess, that they overcame after a while? The Y is going to face that, too, even if the FWD aren't involved.

I just think there is a very outside chance that they will have a version that is $5K less then the model 3. I think this chance is like 5%. They would need to make a pretty big leap in automation and production speed/efficiency between now and the model Y volume production.

That's crazy talk. They are now explicitly saying it'll be built on top of the Model 3 platform. They'd drop the Model 3 price if they could pull off the arcane wizardry of even just matching the M3 base price, because they'd have to be substantially dropping the underlying platform's cost to do that.

EDIT: That's getting into Gen 4 pricing territory, mid-to-high $20K's for the base sedan.

 

[SageBrush]

Can a hatchback be designed with Model 3 sedan level CdA ?

 

[wdolson]

Can a hatchback be designed with Model 3 sedan level CdA ?

The Model X has poorer aerodynamics and weighs more than the S and a lower range. They could easily make a car with more of an X shape, but at close to the same weight. The X's extra weight comes from the falcon wing doors and the accommodations for the third row (including the extra duct work for running vents back there and other things). Only a small amount of the extra weight is in the body design.

A Y with two rows and normal doors would weigh a little bit more than a 3, but not the weight difference between the S and X. With poorer aerodynamics it would get poorer range and it's possible Tesla delayed the Y in large part because they couldn't hit 200 miles range with the size of the small pack on the 3 and the cost of cells is currently too high, even with the GF to make a bigger pack and hit the price target.

But they probably could make a 180-190 mile range Y that is essentially a 3 with a hatch and a bit boxier along with being a little higher for close to the same price. Just picking the Subaru Impreza for comparison. It comes in a sedan and hatchback version. The base price difference between the two is $400. The Legacy sedan and Outback are the same platform, but the base Outback has some things the base Legacy doesn't, but the price difference there is $3K. The Forrester is a bit shorter than the Legacy/Outback, but is higher more like an SUV. Its starting price is only $600 more than the Legacy sedan.

Tesla could easily make the entry price of the Y under $40K, but they may not be able to hit that price and that range with current battery prices.

 

[Reciprocity]

Huh, hadn't realized Tesla closed that gap to $5K. When the X came out the gap was a lot bigger, more like $8K. Even though Tesla had intended it to be $5K. That'd be the "new" part, I guess, that they overcame after a while? The Y is going to face that, too, even if the FWD aren't involved.

That's crazy talk. They are now explicitly saying it'll be built on top of the Model 3 platform. They'd drop the Model 3 price if they could pull off the arcane wizardry of even just matching the M3 base price, because they'd have to be substantially dropping the underlying platform's cost to do that.

EDIT: That's getting into Gen 4 pricing territory, mid-to-high $20K's for the base sedan.

I never said that I thought the model 3 would be lower price. That's also why I said 5% chance.

 

[RobStark]

Americans alone purchased 5M sedans last year.

What is the point of making a Model Y CUV with a profile that almost exactly matches the Model 3?

Give it a significant boost in interior storage and a significant increase in ride height that increases visibility consumers love so much.

That means lower Cd and need for more kWh to keep 220 miles of range. Don't move toward LEAF like range numbers. Don't move toward Bolt like silhouette.

Charge what it cost. ~$39k.

Tesla doesn't have the luxury of making a 320i, 320i Touring, 430i Gran Coupe,X3,and X4. Tesla needs two vehicles that covers the entirety of this market.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Can a hatchback be designed with Model 3 sedan level CdA ?

No, so the Y will need extra batteries at additional cost or, perhaps, will only have the LR battery available, also at extra cost. A Model Y with the current SR battery figures to be too low range for Tesla to consider it a practical vehicle. JMHO, of course.

 

[SageBrush]

No, so the Y will need extra batteries at additional cost or, perhaps, will only have the LR battery available, also at extra cost. A Model Y with the current SR battery figures to be too low range for Tesla to consider it a practical vehicle. JMHO, of course.

This has been my take on question too. But it may be a little harsh and more relevant to 'SUV' type designs since my Prius Prime is a hatchback with a Cd of 0.24

 

[ℬête Noire]

I never said that I thought the model 3 would be lower price. That's also why I said 5% chance.

"I just think there is a very outside chance that they will have a version that is $5K less then the model 3."

Crazy talk to suppose there is even a 5% chance Tesla can in the next couple years knock off at least $5K off the Model 3 (and would drop the price that much even if they could), and even more unless you mix is the other very long shot that the Y cost is the same as the 3.

The only real path to that is truly catastrophic economy deflation.

 

[ℬête Noire]

This has been my take on question too. But it may be a little harsh and more relevant to 'SUV' type designs since my Prius Prime is a hatchback with a Cd of 0.24

1) Drag is product of Cd * front cross section area. Crossovers stand high, so you still end up with a lot of drag even if you hammer the Cd down.

2) A hatchback is NOT a crossover. The Prime stands only about 1" higher than the Model 3, which is slightly higher than the Model S. On the other hand the Model X stands 9"+ higher than any of them. While the Model X is more "full-size", even the Bolt EV, a "compact crossover", is far closer to it than the Prius Prime standing 5'3", a little over 7" above the Prius Prime. It is the key selling point of the form factor, the "riding higher, able to see around" feeling. *shrug*

 

[SageBrush]

1) Drag is product of Cd * front cross section area. Crossovers stand high, so you still end up with a lot of drag even if you hammer the Cd down.

2) A hatchback is NOT a crossover. The Prime stands only about 1" higher than the Model 3, which is slightly higher than the Model S. On the other hand the Model X stands 9"+ higher than any of them. While the Model X is more "full-size", even the Bolt EV, a "compact crossover", is far closer to it than the Prius Prime standing 5'3", a little over 7" above the Prius Prime. It is the key selling point of the form factor, the "riding higher, able to see around" feeling. *shrug*

Right, and that is my point.

I'm keen to keep my hatchback, but I don't mind giving up the height to keep high fuel economy.

 

[Msjulie]

By the time it became clear the sedan was a dying segment the Model 3's design was probably fairly advanced, but I do think it would have been a better move for Tesla to come out with the Y first.

FWIW I'm a religious in my dislike for SUVs (as passenger cars with 1 person especially); being in the minority in the USA, I wouldn't buy the X or the Y but the 3 is cool or the new Roadster if I stumbled upon a heap of money..

 

[ℬête Noire]

Right, and that is my point.

I'm keen to keep my hatchback, but I don't mind giving up the height to keep high fuel economy.

Oops missed that part, hadn't gone back far enough in the thread and I think dgpcolorado didn't pick up that you were talking about another separate vehicle than the planned Y?

The trouble with going "hatchback" is that that format isn't particularly popular in the US. It would likely sell well in Europe though and other regions, it's just not going to get the priority with Tesla still being a US company.

 

[wdolson]

FWIW I'm a religious in my dislike for SUVs (as passenger cars with 1 person especially); being in the minority in the USA, I wouldn't buy the X or the Y but the 3 is cool or the new Roadster if I stumbled upon a heap of money..

I don't like SUVs either. I stumbled upon Tesla because I had exhausted most of the larger sedans and hadn't found anything that met my criteria. One limiting factor is with my long legs a lot of cars don't have enough leg room for me. Many SUVs do because the seats are usually taller, but I don't like SUVs in general.