Model S range and interior update imminent?

[SucreTease]

Why the hell would they discontinue the 75D now? They just gave it an upgrade, which made them change thousands of cars on the road, just for customer satisfaction. If they were going to introduce an 85D (or something similar) now, than why would they have done the performance upgrade for the 75's?

They gave it an upgrade on July 1. Discontinuing the 75D early next year would hardly qualify as "just gave it an upgrade". It is entirely reasonable to make current owners happy (e.g. uncorking) for a number of reasons. People who are buying the S and X are funding Tesla's manufacture of the Model 3 (viz-a-viz Musk's "Master Plan") is one good reason. That good will goes a long way towards Tesla's reputation for continuing to make the cars better over time is another. Keeping the Model S and X from being overshadowed by the Model 3 is another.

 

[unbelievable]

He did not deny that the S and X will use them. He merely said, earlier this year (Elon Musk on Twitter):

That was a factual statement at that time. It does not preclude changes of plans in the future (now present).

Do you have a degree in semantics? What is the massive meaning in difference? Stop wasting your and my time by nit picking and write something interesting.

 

[Peewee]

If it looks that they are slowing down the 75D's deliveries (now in Feb), it seems like they are pulling the plug fast, so they will have a nice end year run. That would be 4-5 months.

Just for the record: I'm happy with my 75D on order (delivery this month). It's way faster than I ever need and I also don't need extra range. I hope for everyone with orders not yet in production that they will get an update.

 

[wdolson]

It isn’t battery production that is the bottleneck. It is the production of battery modules, which is the assembly of many battery cells into a subunit of the pack. That implies that they can produce batteries faster than they can assemble them into packs.

All Model S and X currently use 18650 cells. All 2170 production is going into the Model 3. The S/X pack groups the cells into modules. The small pack cars (60, 70, and 75) use 14 modules, and the large pack cars use 16 modules. There have been 2 generations of 18650 cells and 3 generations of module design.

Below is my breakdown of the pack and cell generations to date. The highlighted blue section is the small pack data and the highlighted green section is the large pack. It's unconfirmed, but Tesla may have changed the chemistry when they came out with the 100 KWH pack. Jason Hughes did a breakdown of a 100 pack and the numbers in the last column come from his data. To get his numbers would require a slightly denser chemistry than the 90/75 packs had.

As you can see, when they went from the 70 pack to the 75 pack it was to standardize modules between the two packs. The 70 and 60 packs had fewer cells per module, but the 75 had/has the same pack as the 90. Standardizing on the same module for both battery packs saves them money and it's inevitable they will do it eventually if they haven't already done it.

I would be willing to bet the 18650 and 2170 batteries are on completely different lines. (Are the 18650s even in the Gigafactory?) They aren't going to add 2170s to the S and X in the short term, as I think the extra height might require a chassis redesign, so as others have said, I think they might just be creating new 18650 packs minus a couple of modules from the 100, down to a 90 or 85kw battery. Probably the units that were field tested in Europe earlier this year.

Currently 18650 cells are made in Asia and the 2170s are made in Nevada. Jason Hughes has said there is enough height in the existing modules to squeeze in the extra height of the 2170s. It shouldn't require a chassis redesign.

When the Model S was designed, they went with 18650 because they were widely available. It was a cell frequently used in laptop batteries. However, at that time they figured out what the optimum form factor would be to trade off energy density and cooling ability and they came up with the 2170 size. I believe they designed the car to accept a redesigned pack with 2170s at some point because their long term plan was to use them.

 

[FlatSix911]

Great Battery Pack chart ... thanks for sharing the data A few additional questions:

• How did Tesla increase the pack density in cells/module going from 444 to 516 in the third generation?
• What do the numbers look like with a 2170 battery in the pack design for the small and large form factors?

All Model S and X currently use 18650 cells. All 2170 production is going into the Model 3. The S/X pack groups the cells into modules. The small pack cars (60, 70, and 75) use 14 modules, and the large pack cars use 16 modules. There have been 2 generations of 18650 cells and 3 generations of module design.

Below is my breakdown of the pack and cell generations to date. The highlighted blue section is the small pack data and the highlighted green section is the large pack. It's unconfirmed, but Tesla may have changed the chemistry when they came out with the 100 KWH pack. Jason Hughes did a breakdown of a 100 pack and the numbers in the last column come from his data. To get his numbers would require a slightly denser chemistry than the 90/75 packs had.

As you can see, when they went from the 70 pack to the 75 pack it was to standardize modules between the two packs. The 70 and 60 packs had fewer cells per module, but the 75 had/has the same pack as the 90. Standardizing on the same module for both battery packs saves them money and it's inevitable they will do it eventually if they haven't already done it.

View attachment 259608

Currently 18650 cells are made in Asia and the 2170s are made in Nevada. Jason Hughes has said there is enough height in the existing modules to squeeze in the extra height of the 2170s. It shouldn't require a chassis redesign.

When the Model S was designed, they went with 18650 because they were widely available. It was a cell frequently used in laptop batteries. However, at that time they figured out what the optimum form factor would be to trade off energy density and cooling ability and they came up with the 2170 size. I believe they designed the car to accept a redesigned pack with 2170s at some point because their long term plan was to use them.

 

[henderrj]

All Model S and X currently use 18650 cells. All 2170 production is going into the Model 3.

Love the post, very informative. Well laid out. One other item though. If we forget the automotive part for a moment we should remember that the 2170 s are also used in the powerwall and power packs. Probably will be in the Tesla semi as well. Obviously the former use a different chemistry, so must be on a different line, but still using the same type of manufacturing hardware. The point being that I still think, a year after I said it the first time, that the S and X won't see 2170s for at least another year. The chemistry is the same anyway, it's just density.

 

[Hanad26]

Some members on this forum state that Model S/X orders can be held for up to 90 days before taking delivery. I feel as if this would be a strategic for me to buy time awaiting any announcements on Model S upgrades. Currently delivery for me is scheduled for December-Early January. Either way, the anticipation is eating my daily productivity.

 

[Burnt Toast]

Why the hell would they discontinue the 75D now? They just gave it an upgrade, which made them change thousands of cars on the road, just for customer satisfaction. If they were going to introduce an 85D (or something similar) now, than why would they have done the performance upgrade for the 75's?

To appease the customers who just bought them? That's were the biggest hate static always comes from when Tesla changes their line up.

 

[unbelievable]

All Model S and X currently use 18650 cells. All 2170 production is going into the Model 3. The S/X pack groups the cells into modules. The small pack cars (60, 70, and 75) use 14 modules, and the large pack cars use 16 modules. There have been 2 generations of 18650 cells and 3 generations of module design.

Below is my breakdown of the pack and cell generations to date. The highlighted blue section is the small pack data and the highlighted green section is the large pack. It's unconfirmed, but Tesla may have changed the chemistry when they came out with the 100 KWH pack. Jason Hughes did a breakdown of a 100 pack and the numbers in the last column come from his data. To get his numbers would require a slightly denser chemistry than the 90/75 packs had.

As you can see, when they went from the 70 pack to the 75 pack it was to standardize modules between the two packs. The 70 and 60 packs had fewer cells per module, but the 75 had/has the same pack as the 90. Standardizing on the same module for both battery packs saves them money and it's inevitable they will do it eventually if they haven't already done it.

View attachment 259608



Currently 18650 cells are made in Asia and the 2170s are made in Nevada. Jason Hughes has said there is enough height in the existing modules to squeeze in the extra height of the 2170s. It shouldn't require a chassis redesign.

When the Model S was designed, they went with 18650 because they were widely available. It was a cell frequently used in laptop batteries. However, at that time they figured out what the optimum form factor would be to trade off energy density and cooling ability and they came up with the 2170 size. I believe they designed the car to accept a redesigned pack with 2170s at some point because their long term plan was to use them.

You sir, are a genius.

If it is true that the S design was tweaked to accept 2170s at some point then that might have been the update they intended to make, upgrading the S with 2170 battery packs to up the range and put more clear air between the S and the 3. The only slight problem is they don’t seem to be able to make the battery packs quickly enough due to the manufacturing problems with stages one and two of the production line.

It is clear that Elon is making this priority number one though, sleeping in the Gigafactory roof and acquiring Perbix [designer, builder, and integrator of high-volume automation equipment and systems] in order to help fix these problems.

The question is whether they will be able to ramp up production enough to make this achievable, given they need every battery pack produced at the moment to go into a 3.

 

[wdolson]

Great Battery Pack chart ... thanks for sharing the data A few additional questions:

• How did Tesla increase the pack density in cells/module going from 444 to 516 in the third generation?
• What do the numbers look like with a 2170 battery in the pack design for the small and large form factors?

I think Jason Hughes (wk057 here on the forum) showed the difference in his 100 pack tear down vs his 90 pack tear down. Tesla completely redid the cooling system for the 100 KWH pack which enabled them to pack the cells in a little tighter than the did before. I believe when they introduced the 100 KWH pack Elon said the cooling system in the new pack was the same as was going into the Model 3.

Love the post, very informative. Well laid out. One other item though. If we forget the automotive part for a moment we should remember that the 2170 s are also used in the powerwall and power packs. Probably will be in the Tesla semi as well. Obviously the former use a different chemistry, so must be on a different line, but still using the same type of manufacturing hardware. The point being that I still think, a year after I said it the first time, that the S and X won't see 2170s for at least another year. The chemistry is the same anyway, it's just density.

It will be a while before the 2170 makes it into the Model S and X. The timing depends on GigaFactory production. With the delay of the Model 3, we may see the 2170 in the Model S/X earlier. If demand from the Fremont factory is lower than GF output to a significant enough degree, they could switch to the 2170 in the S/X both to boost demand for those cars as well as use up the extra production. That would allow Panasonic to shut down their Japanese factories to retool for 2170 production to meet demand as Model 3 production ramps up. They would probably switch back to Asian made 2170s as demand for GF cells for the M3 rose.

It all depends on how fast they get the problems with production sorted out. If the GF gets far enough ahead they could do it and not impact M3 production.

I'm sure they have Model S and/or X test mules out on the road now with 2170 based packs now. For one thing they want to make sure they aren't going to run into any problems with the new cells in M3s, plus they want to make sure the new pack design is ready to go when there are enough 2170s available.

 

[FlatSix911]

Thanks for your reply ... I now recall seeing the discussion on the new cooling system design:
Teardown of new 100 kWh Tesla battery pack reveals new cooling system and 102 kWh capacity

Any idea on the kW size of a new battery pack based on the 2170 energy density ... 110, 120 or 130!

I think Jason Hughes (wk057 here on the forum) showed the difference in his 100 pack tear down vs his 90 pack tear down. Tesla completely redid the cooling system for the 100 KWH pack which enabled them to pack the cells in a little tighter than the did before. I believe when they introduced the 100 KWH pack Elon said the cooling system in the new pack was the same as was going into the Model 3...

I'm sure they have Model S and/or X test mules out on the road now with 2170 based packs now. For one thing they want to make sure they aren't going to run into any problems with the new cells in M3s, plus they want to make sure the new pack design is ready to go when there are enough 2170s available.

 

[wdolson]

Thanks for your reply ... I now recall seeing the discussion on the new cooling system design:
Teardown of new 100 kWh Tesla battery pack reveals new cooling system and 102 kWh capacity

Any idea on the kW size of a new battery pack based on the 2170 energy density ... 110, 120 or 130!

My guess would be somewhere between 110 and 120. They might call it a 120. Historically they have overrated the large packs, the 85 was more like an 80 and the 90 closer to 85, but the 100 is actually 102.

 

[JonG]

In the UK at least there are hundreds of new inventory 75s, they don't want more custom orders, they need to shift the existing inventory stock as its aging. Could this simply be a case of wind out the lead time to an unacceptable delay plus give them a performance boost and hope people start to buy from stock without having to discount any further?

 

[smac]

@JonG The UK market is an really odd case, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

It's possible that Tesla (inc) shipped a load of cars to Tesla UK (ltd), specifically to smooth UK sales figures and try to alleviate some of the pain they will inevitably face in 2018.

We have at least a year to go until the 3 arrives (plus things like the I-Pace), and if past experience of the D launch is anything to go by it's highly likely that Tesla UK lose a lot of sales momentum during the gap between US and UK deliveries. A bunch of inventory cars will at least allow them some discretion in how they manage this. IMHO it would be better if Tesla UK continued to sell new cars, even at discount, than to have a complete dead spot in sales.

 

[alehbaba]

You sir, are a genius.

If it is true that the S design was tweaked to accept 2170s at some point then that might have been the update they intended to make, upgrading the S with 2170 battery packs to up the range and put more clear air between the S and the 3. The only slight problem is they don’t seem to be able to make the battery packs quickly enough due to the manufacturing problems with stages one and two of the production line.

It is clear that Elon is making this priority number one though, sleeping in the Gigafactory roof and acquiring Perbix [designer, builder, and integrator of high-volume automation equipment and systems] in order to help fix these problems.

The question is whether they will be able to ramp up production enough to make this achievable, given they need every battery pack produced at the moment to go into a 3.

can you imagine if the model s was made to accommodate the 2170's? And in 10 yrs or when you need to you can replace a battery pack for like the price of a used car.?

 

[smac]

can you imagine if the model s was made to accommodate the 2170's? And in 10 yrs or when you need to you can replace a battery pack for like the price of a used car.?

While that would be lovely, I would imagine Tesla would still rather sell you a new car.

Maybe if we start seeing a blossoming salvage pack replacement scheme start kicking in (possibly even by third party Tesla specialist).

 

[Mark_T]

While that would be lovely, I would imagine Tesla would still rather sell you a new car.

I'm sure that is true, but Tesla, and for that matter the rest of the EV industry, will have to deal with the 'elephant in the room' at some point soon as the 1st generation cars get to the point where battery failures are outside the warranty...

 

[bambam4171]

Well from the numbers we are getting it does not seem likely that any larger number of battery packs need replacement up to 500k miles, unless cell age plays a heavier role than thought.

 

[Mark_T]

Well from the numbers we are getting it does not seem likely that any larger number of battery packs need replacement up to 500k miles, unless cell age plays a heavier role than thought.

It doesn't need large numbers to fail for it to become an issue, even small numbers failing outside of warranty will be enough for those who want to make a big deal out of a small problem,

This isn't a uniquely 'Tesla' problem either, but I'm hoping that EM will come up with a uniquely Tesla solution, either in the form of an extended battery warranty or some reasonably priced battery swap options.

Still time left at the moment of course, but it is going to become at least a perceived issue if it isn't dealt with relatively soon...

 

[CRASHER]

New custom order deliveries start in Feb. Looks like there is something going on in January.