Model S/X deliveries drop off cliff, down 56%

[MXWing]

Tesla deliveries fall—especially for high-end Model S and X

The S/X is dead and can’t be refreshed soon enough. Even the massive price decreases don’t seem to be enticing new buyers. Now what? We all sorta saw this coming but less than half the deliveries of the prior quarter is way worse than I was expecting.

Not sure why anyone would disagree with you.

I predicted the Model 3 Performance was going to completely decimate the base Model S almost a year ago and before anyone even owned it.

People disagreed with me then and were wrong.

People disagree with you now and they are wrong.

The S and X got relagated to red headed stepchild status.

With that said, Tesla bet the whole family on the 3. They had to make it as nice as they possibly could. They can’t sell Model 3v2 without massive outrage.

These are objective facts.

 

[TeeEmCee]

Model S 75D 5YJSA1E28JF295647 | Tesla


I saw inventory at 68K. bit Higher now
Model S 75D 5YJSA1E28JF295647 | Tesla

That is largely the same price they went for new, a year and a half ago. And it's an old showroom car, and now there are other options...
No way around it, it's just not competitive anymore.

I'll pull out my old tired comment: this is a very single-threaded company, can only deal with only one problem/crisis at a time, apparently. A refresh, however mild (perhaps just the interior), should have been ready long ago.

 

[roblab]

The problem with Model S as I see it is that there isn’t enough difference in the car itself to justify the price against Model 3. I configured a new 3 and S with everything I’d want. The S was $97,000 the 3 was $61,000. If I had to make that call today I’d go with the 3 as I just can’t see $36,000 worth of difference.

Then how come people want to spend several thousand more on the 3 for the performance the S has? And the S is bigger inside, is a hatchback, has air suspension, a sunroof that opens, etc., etc., etc. Sure, you can say "But I don't want those," but my four year old S is still a better car than my one year old 3. Just because you can configure the 3 and S "with everything" you'd want does not mean they are apples to apples, more like apples to oranges. The 3 may be an orange, but you can't make pie with oranges. They're not the same. And, as the old adage says, "You get what you pay for... IF you're careful.

 

[roblab]

Not sure why anyone would disagree with you.

I predicted the Model 3 Performance was going to completely decimate the base Model S almost a year ago and before anyone even owned it.

People disagreed with me then and were wrong.

People disagree with you now and they are wrong.

The S and X got relagated to red headed stepchild status.

With that said, Tesla bet the whole family on the 3. They had to make it as nice as they possibly could. They can’t sell Model 3v2 without massive outrage.

These are objective facts.

Nobody is saying the 3 isn't the new winner. I'm glad Tesla has made the 3 for the lower-income buyer, so more can be sold. Just like Ford, the biggest seller isn't the Fairlane, but the pickup. The cheap pickup. This is why Kia sells more cars than some, but S and X aren't selling to that market. The three is a cheaper car, and some people want a cheaper Tesla so they can afford it.

By the way, the red-headed stepchild was the one who graduated from MIT.

 

[aesculus]

By the way, the red-headed stepchild was the one who graduated from MIT.

But now the question is how did they get accepted?

 

[wdolson]

Not sure why anyone would disagree with you.

I predicted the Model 3 Performance was going to completely decimate the base Model S almost a year ago and before anyone even owned it.

People disagreed with me then and were wrong.

People disagree with you now and they are wrong.

The S and X got relagated to red headed stepchild status.

With that said, Tesla bet the whole family on the 3. They had to make it as nice as they possibly could. They can’t sell Model 3v2 without massive outrage.

These are objective facts.

I was predicting the entire Model 3 line was going to push down sales of the Model S. The Model 3 has the newer design, and some are saying the S is looking tired, but the S is a far more versatile car. It's larger with a hatchback as @roblab pointed out.

I think the S is a fantastic car and if I were buying today with unlimited budget, I would go for it in a heartbeat, but if I was buying today I would go for the 3 because it fits within my budget better and it's more car for the money. The S is a better car, but I can't justify it's a $30K better car. If it was $10K-$15K more, it would be worth it and I think that's what Tesla is going to have to come down to.

If the new motor upgrade for the S and X is the same motors as the 3, then Tesla will have a cost savings and they can pass that on to the customer providing a better range car for less money. I also expect the update is going to incorporate as much of the Model 3's parts into the S/X line as possible, which will be another cost savings they can pass on. The S might be selling for $10K-$15K more than the 3 by year's end.

But now the question is how did they get accepted?

They got accepted because maybe they don't seem the best now, they were at the time.

 

[henderrj]

A great frustration for me is the personification of corporations. Of course there are limitations in budgets and personnel but a company is not a monolith. If Elon will stop insisting on signing off on every little thing and let Franz and a small group loose (was not the original design done that way?) we could have a gorgeous update in just a few months. In my dream world anyway.

 

[Magellan55]

With the drop in S/X sales, maybe they can finally make enough spare body panels for service center repairs...

 

[alcibiades]

With the drop in S/X sales, maybe they can finally make enough spare body panels for service center repairs...

Service will be fast! And we will have p100d loaners!

 

[erik_k]

And we will have p100d loaners!

I know Tesla has often had Model S cars available as loaners. Sometimes ICE cars. How often have people found Model X or 3 cars as loaners?

 

[P100D_Me]

So the price slash that shafted many new S & X owners (outside of the US mainly) didn't help sales, who'd have thought

 

[erik_k]

So the price slash that shafted many new S & X owners (outside of the US mainly) didn't help sales, who'd have thought

That brings a question to mind. Does Tesla have Country managers who set or weigh in on pricing in local currencies and such? With so many legal jurisdictions and possible tax incentives and such in different countries and US states, does Tesla have locals who can make rational decisions here or is everything run from CA? Really curious how some P100Ds in foreign markets saw ⅓ price drops. Can’t imagine that was the intent?! Just wondering the process that lead to that happening.

 

[wdolson]

I know Tesla has often had Model S cars available as loaners. Sometimes ICE cars. How often have people found Model X or 3 cars as loaners?

I've only had Model S and ICE loaners, but I haven't been to the service center in over 6 months. Most are used Teslas. They had lots of Model S loaners when they got flooded with the first round of lease returns, but it's been more often ICE since then. The number of used X and 3s is a lot more limited, so I wouldn't be surprised if getting an X or 3 loaner was rare.

 

[P100D_Me]

Really curious how some P100Ds in foreign markets saw ⅓ price drops. Can’t imagine that was the intent?! Just wondering the process that lead to that happening.

What led to that happening was some irrational impulsive decision making in a Californian boardroom . I am sure if someone in that meeting said you know if we do this price drop in North America and apply it globally it will slash prices in some Asian countries by nearly 50% then they might have taken another strategy.....well you'd hope they would have thought beyond North America considering they are a global company. If they did discuss that and still went ahead then that says a lot about the people running the company doesn't it.

 

[azdryheat]

I know Tesla has often had Model S cars available as loaners. Sometimes ICE cars. How often have people found Model X or 3 cars as loaners?

Had a new X a couple months ago in Scottsdale.

 

[Trevor B]

I would also say not to discount the fact that All major car makers are down on sales. Maybe we’re all waiting on full self driving car hailing?

Actually to me the S class body is an iconic shape, and still aspirationally beautiful in so many ways (when considering the eye of beholder, of course), but if a sleek refresh of the car accompanied a redesign of things inside/underneath such as using 2170 cells, making the battery pack smaller and hopefully lighter, match the charging speed of the Model 3, etc. then a similar but just more sleeked up version of the S body to distinguish it would be enough for me to get another S...unless VW does indeed build out a comparable nationwide charging network. Only then might it be a game changer.

Model S was iconic ... now it's dated, needs refresh

Model X is over engineered ... wouldn't be surprised if they killed it at some point soon.

 

[mrbulk]

Model S was iconic ... now it's dated, needs refresh

Model X is over engineered ... wouldn't be surprised if they killed it at some point soon.

Yeah, probably. To us Tesla-ites, anyway. But for the uninitiated who I run into that realize I have a Tesla, such as when I wear my cool Tesla ballcap (bought for me by a couple of relatives when they both bought Tesla vehicles themselves, yeah thanks a lot), these folks will follow me around and ask unending questions and profess their love for all things Tesla, including the "coooool look" of the original Model S body design. So again (as I already parenthesized in the post you quoted above), "when considering the eye of the beholder".

 

[Munka]

Why would they kill the X when it's selling just as well/badly as the S?

It will get the new motor and interior too this year. Then continue to sell at a reduced rate for some time. The only reason I can see them ditching the X is if there is a cost benefit. And I'm just not seeing what that is right now

 

[Mediocrates]

I know Tesla has often had Model S cars available as loaners. Sometimes ICE cars. How often have people found Model X or 3 cars as loaners?

In a variety of service center visits in 2017 (in San Diego), I had an X twice, one of which was a brand new 100D. All the rest were varying Model S trims.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Good point. ~50k/year might be a more sustainable production volume moving forward. I’m certainly an example of someone who stretched into a model S because there were no alternatives.

Yep, I'm also in this boat, I placed a day 1 Model 3 reservation and then decided to scratch that itch early with a Model S. Now I have an S and the 3. That said, I would totally buy another S, it's the perfect family cruiser and would prefer to take it over the 3 on road trips so I'm hoping for a refresh so I have something to upgrade to.