Model S/X Owners Have Priority Model 3 Orders Over Non-Owners

[MiamiNole]

4) First impressions are a big, huge deal. A current Model S enthusiast won't care as much about quirks/bugs because they've likely seen far worse on the MS/MX. Someone of moderate income who runs into financial trouble because of M3 issues? Not so caring or understanding.

I've been seeing a number of people bring up this point. Am I the only one who sees the contradiction? Current owners will get priority for reservations, but that still doesn't mean they will get their car before non-owners. A non-owner could check all the right boxes and get delivery priority. Said owner would have to deal with the "quirks and bugs" and that goes against the first impressions argument.

And before someone takes it here, you don't necessarily have to be wealthy to be able to afford a decked out Model 3. It's not a matter of how much you make, moreso how much you are able to spend on a car. There are people who make a lot of money who can't afford a new car, just as there are people who make a low to moderate amount of money who have plenty of disposable income. A lot of people are quick to generalize people on this board, but from what I can tell, the spectrum of owners and prospective owners is pretty wide, Models S/X/3 be damned.

 

[EVNow]

Let me state my real problem with this decision by Tesla - it doesn't sit well with their stated objective of evangelizing EV adoption. It perpetuates the myth of EVs being toys for the rich. It doesn't help in democratizing EV ownership. As an EV advocate I feel this is not the way to go.

 

[CHG-ON]

I am hoping they have their *sugar* together with this. Not only the queue, but the ramp, too because this is going to be bigger than anything they've dealt with thus far!

Agree again! As a significant (for me) shareholder, their success or failure with the M3 will dictate my ability to retire. No exaggeration. I think this launch will be what separates the men from the boys (sorry ladies, it's a cliche). Analyst talk about this stock having a near-term target of 300. If they pull this off, along with T-energy, this well could be a Microsoft-scale stock from the late 70's. I am already up 10X. I think that could become 100X, as with MST.

Finger crossed!

 

[McHoffa]

I just tweeted to Musk, don't really expect him to reply - If I reserve a Model 3 on 2016-Mar-31st in the store, can someone buying a Model S/X in 2018 still jump ahead of me in the queue ?

I sent a tweet asking almost the exact same thing yesterday. Hope they clarify. I'm still driving to be there in store that morning, though this news makes me not quite as excited about being in the front of the line, since it won't mean I'm really at the front of the line.

 

[EVNow]

I sent a tweet asking almost the exact same thing yesterday. Hope they clarify. I'm still driving to be there in store that morning, though this news makes me not quite as excited about being in the front of the line, since it won't mean I'm really at the front of the line.

I'll actually go and reserve in store on the 31st - mostly because it is easier to do that than reserving in the evening at home while trying to keep 2 small kids from banging on my keyboard

But I can't help but conclude this will depress # of reservations. A large number could have been a great advertisement for EVs.

 

[McHoffa]

I'll actually go and reserve in store on the 31st - mostly because it is easier to do that than reserving in the evening at home while trying to keep 2 small kids from banging on my keyboard

But I can't help but conclude this will depress # of reservations. A large number could have been a great advertisement for EVs.

I'm driving two hours to stay with a friend overnight and then we're going together another hour to the store. It would definitely be easier for me to do it online, but I've been waiting 10 years for this car. I want to minimize any more waiting I'll have to do!

 

[eloder]

Let me state my real problem with this decision by Tesla - it doesn't sit well with their stated objective of evangelizing EV adoption. It perpetuates the myth of EVs being toys for the rich. It doesn't help in democratizing EV ownership. As an EV advocate I feel this is not the way to go.

The EV revolution is pretty much fully dependent on Tesla, at least in a decently accelerated timeline that can actually help save the planet from catastrophic climate change. What's better for Tesla is best for their overall goal, and the Model 3 is perhaps the single most important event in accelerating EV adoption.

I've been seeing a number of people bring up this point. Am I the only one who sees the contradiction? Current owners will get priority for reservations, but that still doesn't mean they will get their car before non-owners. A non-owner could check all the right boxes and get delivery priority. Said owner would have to deal with the "quirks and bugs" and that goes against the first impressions argument.

A non-owner who checks all the right boxes will not get their car before an owner who checks all the right boxes. Given Tesla ramp speed, this will likely translate into months before a non-owner, non-employee gets their first car. I imagine that MS/MX owners can more afford all the right boxes, anyways.

On the west coast - almost every IT professional would pay more than 7.5k in taxes - and most would think they can't afford S/X given the cost of living.

So, "afford" is a very subjective thing. We pay a ton of taxes (a lot more than 7.5k) - but we also pay over $40k a year in childcare. More importantly we'd need to buy a new house with a bigger garage - and that transaction would cost us more than a S.

Sorry, had a bad typo and didn't edit it in time. I meant to say the Model 3.

I can afford the Model 3 today, I am nowhere close to getting the full $7500 tax credit.

The Model 3 will be extremely affordable in areas like the Midwest. People like me whose mortgage payments are eclipsed by my monthly food bill.

The cost of owning a Model 3 will likely be pretty low compared to mid-range ICEs with traditional loan/financing amounts. It's also an easy goal to hit for heavy savers, and an easy goal to hit by anyone who has invested in TSLA around current stock prices.

 

[Super_Popular]

I'm driving two hours to stay with a friend overnight and then we're going together another hour to the store. It would definitely be easier for me to do it online, but I've been waiting 10 years for this car. I want to minimize any more waiting I'll have to do!

But what if you don't like it?

 

[Alex Tava]

So my 2 cents in this conversation are.... I am a college student who should graduate before the release of the Model 3 and I am currently selling my current car in anticipation (go to school in NYC so no need at the moment). Now my reasoning for a Model 3 is I would like to support a vision I believe in and will be in the market for a car by that time. Now although the M3 would be impossible without the earlier adopters I think it is unfair to people like me who cannot afford the other models and could really use the Government incentives to help finance the car and extra features. I think the early adopters are great and I appreciate them just think it should be fair game but hey can't be too mad that they are rewarding their customers just hope it benefits me later down the road.

 

[MojaveWheeler]

I don't buy the "quirks/bugs" argument stating that current owners are less likely to complain about bugs in the initial batches of M3s. Loyal fans who have been drooling after Teslas for years and are willing to camp overnight in front of their Tesla store, or sit in front of their PC at work hitting the F5 button repeatedly, are just as hard core of fans as current owners. We're just from a different market segment, namely the segment that can't afford a $100,000 car (or should I say lease).

For those dismissing our value of the tax credit because we don't make "enough money" to pay $7500 in Federal taxes, I invite you to move to the Bay Area or Orange County. I pay 60k+ in taxes a year but cannot afford an S/X.

 

[Monkey]

Everyone should consult with their tax advisor or CPA on this. It's not only about your income and associated tax liability, you also have to consider all deductions that you take. A lot of people buying the Model S or X have found that it's not so easy to get all of that tax credit. By the time everyone gets done taking all their deductions for mortgage interest, healthcare costs, dependency credits, other write-offs -- especially if they're self-employed -- the list goes on.

A lot of people will be able to take advantage of this credit if it's available when they take delivery of their car. A good number of people will not be able to take it or maximize it.

I think it's crappy and disingenuous for auto makers, Tesla included here, to promote these tax credits as a line-item deduction or consideration in the purchase price. Chevy is playing it up too with the Bolt and they will most certainly hammer this point home too once the Bolt is shipping. Especially because they can rub it in vs. Tesla since Tesla will have used up a very significant portion of their 200K vehicle allotment by the time Model 3 deliveries start.

 

[Monkey]

Some of you guys are misinterpreting this and making it into a bigger deal than it is. Lower reservations grant you access to the design studio, where you configure your car and place your order, at an earlier date than higher reservations. It is not directly a priority number that gets you a car made faster. Tesla will most likely invite all the reservations in batchs of a couple thousand at a time. Maybe the first batch or two will only be a few hundred at a time. Your actual placement in the production queue happens once you confirm your vehicle order (7 days after placing the order).

But yes, lower reservation numbers do get you into that design studio faster. And someone with a low reservation number who configures and confirms immediately will be in the queue a full two weeks ahead of someone who is invited to configure two weeks after them who also configures and confirms immediately.

On the flip side, I could have reservation #5 and take three weeks arguing with my wife over which color to order. In the mean time, Tesla invites the next 5000 reservation holders, out of which 2200 of them place their orders before I do. I'm not getting car #5. More than likely, I'm getting car #2000+ But other factors come into play in terms of production and delivery timing -- configuration options, delivery region, production cycle and parts availability, etc..

 

[Az_Rael]

I think it's crappy and disingenuous for auto makers, Tesla included here, to promote these tax credits as a line-item deduction or consideration in the purchase price. Chevy is playing it up too with the Bolt and they will most certainly hammer this point home too once the Bolt is shipping. Especially because they can rub it in vs. Tesla since Tesla will have used up a very significant portion of their 200K vehicle allotment by the time Model 3 deliveries start.

I agree, when I bought my Volt the marketing of the tax credit was very terrible, making it look like it was going to come immediately off the top. Tesla is just as bad though with their "gas savings" crap on their site that uses a very inefficient car as the standard.

Although this does bring up an interesting point. I think GM will probably beat Tesla to the EV credit cap, as they were sitting at about 95k in December. ( When do electric-car tax credits expire? (further update) ) I think they will sell a lot of gen 2 Volts this year, since it is such an improvement over my gen 1. But since GM can really crank out vehicles, even once they hit the cap I would guess way more people will actually get qualifying cars during the burn down period vs Tesla.

 

[Darryl]

If the Model X is any indication of how reservation will be handled. Reservations are irrelevant it is how much you spend on the car determines the order they will be delivered. Therefore the fully loaded $85,000 model 3 will be the first to be delivered and the stripped down $35,000 model 3 will be last.

Again based on history. tesla is always 2-3 years late on first delivery. 2019/2020 for fully loaded with $35k one to two years later.

I'm pretty sure I replied to this very statement of yours before.


Full article at:
Stop Assuming Tesla's Model 3 Will Be Late -- The Motley Fool

Until Tesla has a track record of deliverying their product on time we have to assume based on the history of all three products they have made being late (Not weeks or months late but years late) the next product will be late. I would much rather be pleasantly surprised if they are on time rather than being disappointed again.

You probably have not purchased a car from Tesla before or you would understand.

 

[S'toon]

Until Tesla has a track record of deliverying their product on time we have to assume based on the history of all three products they have made being late (Not weeks or months late but years late) the next product will be late. I would much rather be pleasantly surprised if they are on time rather than being disappointed again.

You probably have not purchased a car from Tesla before or you would understand.

You have a track record of saying that the reveal will by drawings only, even though they've explicitly said it won't and are inviting people to drive the vehicles next week at the reveal.

Here, here's an article about their upgrading the factory for the 3.
Wall Street Tours the Tesla Factory—and Loves What It Sees

 

[jgs]

One other explanation I've seen for why Tesla might want to prioritize current owners is that they've already experienced Tesla's, um, quirks and are likely on average to be more forgiving of teething pains than a new customer, especially one who's not a True Believer. They're also less likely to have financially stretched to buy a Model 3, so less stressed out about the whole thing if it doesn't go perfectly.

Basically, this theory says you don't let people into your beta program unless you're relatively confident they'll cut you some slack.

Edit: I see ucmndd said substantially the same, waaaay up-thread. Sorry, long thread.

 

[Darryl]

Yeah..... but then you wind up with a Bolt or a Leaf.

I believe this is an accurate probability of how the Model 3 is delivered, judging by how Tesla has been shipping out new cars, to meet certain criteria and financial deadline.

I doubt if region will play in the formula. I was in the 8000's for reservation numbers for a Model X was in the first 300 for VINs but was one of the first to get my production model X and I live in FL, so region didn't seem to matter. The most important thing that moved me to the top was what I ordered. In the end the reservation number was irrelevant.


It only makes more financial sense to deliver the most optioned, highest margin, cars first. After all Tesla is out to make money for the stockholders of the company. Some of the posts (not you) make it sound like this is a charitable non-profit organization rather than a company who's owners are the stockholders. In reading some of the responses on this thread it sounds like the owner's of "a" Tesla think they are owner's of Tesla not just a customer of Tesla. I am sure there are some who do own stock, like myself, but only a small portion. The decisions Tesla makes on who gets cars first should be made on what makes the most financial sense for Tesla, and the stockholder of Tesla.

Customer loyalty is just one factor when deciding the order. There was one poster who said his retirement was solely based on how Tesla stock did. He should fire his financial advisor. He should have a diversified portfolio and understand you cannot rely on how well a single stock performs as your sole source of retirement or you may never be able to retire.

No matter who becomes president in November, there is a republican congress who will not allow any additional taxes to take place to fund additional rebates. The only way this could happen would be during the 2018/2020 elections if democrats were to take back congress.

 

[Darryl]

One other explanation I've seen for why Tesla might want to prioritize current owners is that they've already experienced Tesla's, um, quirks and are likely on average to be more forgiving of teething pains than a new customer, especially one who's not a True Believer. They're also less likely to have financially stretched to buy a Model 3, so less stressed out about the whole thing if it doesn't go perfectly.

Basically, this theory says you don't let people into your beta program unless you're relatively confident they'll cut you some slack.

Edit: I see ucmndd said substantially the same, waaaay up-thread. Sorry, long thread.

I think you are right on. The general public would/could not tolerate the types of issues Tesla has been having since November.

 

[Darryl]

You have a track record of saying that the reveal will by drawings only, even though they've explicitly said it won't and are inviting people to drive the vehicles next week at the reveal.

Here, here's an article about their upgrading the factory for the 3.
Wall Street Tours the Tesla Factory—and Loves What It Sees

I based what I said on what Elon Musk said not once but twice in the last six months in the front of groups of people. He is the man and as the head and largest stockholder of Tesla I have to believe what he says is true. Who else are you to believe?

 

[Tam]

I'm wondering at what point we are asked if we want a fully optioned car and if we will be able to see the effect in change of delivery date when we make that call. I might be willing to take a few more options if it gets me a car 1-2 years sooner.

The sequence is:
1) You make a refundable deposit.
2) You'll get an e-mail with "RN" prefix which is like an account number that you include for any further payments from then on.
3) You won't hear anything for a long time. You can check your "My Tesla" web page for any change.
4) People will report that they've gotten an e-mail to configure.
And you will too!
5) You then can click on the link in the e-mail to configure. You can also go to "My Tesla" page to do that too.
6) Once you click to configure, you can click on how many options you want depending on how much you want to pay.

I think you can practice to do that with Model S without logging in your "My Tesla" page to see all the options and pricing.

You cannot do that (that means configuring without logging in) for Model X or Model ≡ currently, because you need an e-mail that unlock your "My Tesla" page.

7) After you are happy with your configuration, you can now "finalize" it and your deposit would be then converted to "non-refundable." That means you've entered a buying contract at that point.

8) Most people won't hear anything for a long time. But if you check your My Tesla page, you'll get a VIN posted there in a few weeks.

9) Then after a few weeks, Tesla would call you to set up a delivery schedule.

And so on...

So let's get back to your question:

a) at what point we are asked if we want a fully optioned car?

No one will ask you.

When you see an e-mail telling you that you can configure now, that's when you can choose barebone, maxed out, or anything in between options yourself.

b) if we will be able to see the effect in change of delivery date when we make that call:

I don't think so. It's been done by faith and been confirmed with past historical reporting. You pay for more options, you'll get it faster than others with less options after factoring in other factors.

c) I might be willing to take a few more options if it gets me a car 1-2 years sooner.

Historically, it is very difficult to predict a delivery date at the start of production because it might be very slow or even stalled for sometimes to iron out some wrinkles.

Once the production is fully ramped up, how many Model ≡ per week, then your Delivery Specialist can give you an educated guess of when you will get yours.

I hope this helps. Good luck.