I don't have a good recollection (and some of this was before I was paying attention...) - Is Tesla interested in current owner or original buyer? Also, does the reservation queue ordering "check" apply when you put down the reservation or when you configure? Put another way, if you sell your Roadster on April 5th do you keep the "priority" designation on your Model 3 reservation?
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I agree with this. I've considered such a thing but don't know enough about the process to have suggested with confidence either way. It's nice to think Tesla would do their best to help their customers. These are federal laws, not Tesla laws, so to suggest that they're doing wrong by their customers or screwing people over by giving priority to prior owners is really unfair. Their business model is strictly supported by taking on higher revenues first to subsidize more affordable models. You can't expect them to radically alter their business model to help a few thousand people save $7500. They're still a relatively new company, and they're thinking big picture. Some early adopters might see it as missing out, but there's a much larger goal in mind.
I'm quite confident this won't happen. I think the "priority" offer will be closed by July 2016, if not earlier.
strider
Active Member
I know you've been following this thread and so I know you've read what I'm about to say but I'll say it again. You keep looking at this from the customer's perspective and dismiss Tesla's perspective. The early units of every Tesla model have had non-trivial issues (and this isn't limited to Tesla, even established makers have troubles with new models, 1987 Jeep Wrangler? 2005 Corvette? I'm sure there are tons more, I just happen to have experience with those). It is safe for Tesla to assume that current owners will be more likely to take these early teething problems in stride when compared to an owner who is new to Tesla. Existing owners already know the drill for getting their car into a Service Center, have a relationship with that Center, etc. As a current owner (twice), I'm actually quite nervous about getting one of the first cars off the line and while I will reserve on the 31st I may actually defer my order to get a car that will be more refined. Remember that to sign up for the first cars means you are a guinea pig and there will be things that will break or not work correctly from the beginning. The car may even leave you stranded. All that to say, be careful what you wish for.
Finally, this only matters until cars begin to ship which in the grand scheme of things is a fairly small time from now. All of the same sturm und drang happened with Model S but now anyone can walk in, order one, and get it a few months later. This thread and the many more that will come and go between now and 2018 will be so much digital rubbish as production ramps and buying becomes routine.
Yes, someone will be that person who's car is delivered one day too late and their credit drops in half or to 0. Someone has to be that person. It was the same with the Autopilot hardware, it's the same when any other electronic goo-gah gets upgraded. By definition someone has to be the last person to pay full price for the previous model.
Hopefully Tesla will be sensitive to their production counts and shift production to non-US cars if it looks like they'll cross 200k near the end of a quarter. But at the same time they're a public company and if it causes them to miss a production target they would open themselves up to shareholder lawsuits so they will have to balance that.
SureValla
Member
This has been pointed out in other threads.
If you have to have the $7500 tax credit to be able to make the purchase for the Model 3, then sadly it was never going to be possible. All early deliveries will be the fully optioned or very highly optioned cars with the largest battery etc.
I doubt that the economics of the base, stripper Model 3 will not be there until well into the production cycle, so that the scale economies can come into play and that the gigafactory is well into its operation to reduce battery cost.
It's been stated that the GF isn't on the critical path for delivering Model 3, but I bet it is for the small battery version with zero options.
It sounds like cost is the biggest hurdle they are facing right now.
If you have to have the $7500 tax credit to be able to make the purchase for the Model 3, then sadly it was never going to be possible. All early deliveries will be the fully optioned or very highly optioned cars with the largest battery etc.
I doubt that the economics of the base, stripper Model 3 will not be there until well into the production cycle, so that the scale economies can come into play and that the gigafactory is well into its operation to reduce battery cost.
It's been stated that the GF isn't on the critical path for delivering Model 3, but I bet it is for the small battery version with zero options.
It sounds like cost is the biggest hurdle they are facing right now.
MassModel3
Member
That would thoroughly surprise me if they did since they are not affiliated with Tesla in any way other than Elon Musk. There is no way those other company's employees should benefit based on that alone.
From what little has been said by people in the know about the Model 3, we know the Model 3 will be in a larger vehicle than the Bolt and I don't think it will be cross shopped all that much. The ICE cars the low end Model 3s will be competing with will be cars like the Toyota Corolla, Subaru Legacy, Ford Focus, and other cars in that size range. A loaded Model 3 will probably compare well with the BMW 3 Series and the bottom ends of other luxury brands.
In the car market, EV buyers have been largely ghettoized by dealers who really don't want to sell EVs. They will sell them because they pretty much have to, but they do everything they can to discourage customers. As a result, the EV world is a separate world from the ICE world. People who like and/or own EVs tend to be fans of the cars, but to the rest of the world they are odd balls who are a fringe all their own.
There will be interest in the Model 3 from current EV affectionados, but overall that is such a small segment of the market they aren't significant for the Model 3's success. The measure of the Model 3's success will be in how deep a dent it puts in the ICE compact sedan market. It needs to win over buyers not because it's an electric but despite it's electric.
That has happened to a large extent in the high end luxury sedan market, which is tiny to begin with, but Tesla currently is the winner in that market in the US and is a very serious competitor in most countries where Teslas are sold. If Tesla repeats that success with the Model 3 in the compact sedan market, EVs Tesla will have truly disrupted the car market and things will never be the same again.
If Tesla succeeds in disrupting the market, everyone will be scrambling to build competitive EVs, but Tesla will be almost 10 years ahead of everyone else with a much younger and more flexible company. A lot of companies will repeat mistakes Tesla already made and fixed and dug in management will get in the way and make change more difficult. Companies with more flexible corporate cultures like BMW will likely make it. Others that have been working on EVs for a while like GM and Nissan will likely make it. Some companies will likely fail. I would put Chrysler at the top of the likely to fail list, they aren't even very well prepared for the CAFE changes coming in the next decade. Toyota and VW are big enough they can get bail outs if they get in serious trouble, but neither of them are really ready for the change and they will likely either be scrambling to catch up or continue to sink a lot of money into failed technologies like hydrogen fuel cells.
In any case, the Bolt is only a minor competitor to the Model 3.
Darryl
ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm
Current Tesla owners, being early adopters, have gone through a lot over the last few years.
Look at the production Model X's. Three years of delays and then they start producing cars and after almost three months only several hundred cars have been delivered. These cars are now plagued with problems. I have one of the first of the production cars after four attempts I finally today got it the 65 miles to my house. Last week I made it only 5 miles before having to call the service number, two weeks before that I didn't even make it out of the Tesla service Center. The time before that which was early February they had to cancel delivery because of a faulty computer module. This wasn't a $35k car but a fully loaded $160k P90DL. Yes i could have walked but as an early adopter you expect these type of issues. The early adopters, those putting their $1,000 deposit need to be prepared for possible delays and problems with the early cars. If you aren't willing to accept these kind of problems don't reserve now wait a few years. One of the reasons Tesla owners return to Tesla. They know the are buying a superior product.
Many other companies do have loyalty programs. The airline industry is s good example. I am a lifetime 3 million miler in Contenental United . I get upgraded to first automatically if there is an empty seat three days ahead of my flight along with my spouse. As a Lifetime Three million Miler there is no black out on dates and no restriction on using my miles. I never have to fly a flight ever again and still maintain my status.
Many Tesla owners are on their second or third car and many couples both spouses own a Tesla. These are the reasons Tesla rewards loyalty. They don't need to incent new customers to buy as customers are lining up waiting to buy their cars. Tesla spends no money on advertisement and as long as ultimately make a great car at a reasonable price word of mouse is the only advertisement they need.
Tesla owners have earned this priveledge. and it is only fair that employees are allowed to reserve early. It is not like they are giving any of these people a discount, they are not, they are just getting the right to buy before others who have not proven their loyalty.
Finally Elon Musk realizes and has stated many times there would be no Model 3 or Tesla at all if it wasn't because of the loyal customers. At least he rewards loyalty. The Model 3 Buyers will never have the same impact as the Model S and X did on keeping the company going.
I do feel there should be a limit of one Model 3 per employee and a one for one Model 3 for existing Model S/X which get prioritized. There should also be limited timeframe that a person should have to make their deposit to qualify for a prioritized reservation. But based on prior experience there probably will not be a limit on when the order has to be placed or the number of Model 3 which get priority treatment.
So again based on history a person could wait two years to reserve and jump ahead others who have held a reservation for two years. This is what is happening right now with the Model X.
Look at the production Model X's. Three years of delays and then they start producing cars and after almost three months only several hundred cars have been delivered. These cars are now plagued with problems. I have one of the first of the production cars after four attempts I finally today got it the 65 miles to my house. Last week I made it only 5 miles before having to call the service number, two weeks before that I didn't even make it out of the Tesla service Center. The time before that which was early February they had to cancel delivery because of a faulty computer module. This wasn't a $35k car but a fully loaded $160k P90DL. Yes i could have walked but as an early adopter you expect these type of issues. The early adopters, those putting their $1,000 deposit need to be prepared for possible delays and problems with the early cars. If you aren't willing to accept these kind of problems don't reserve now wait a few years. One of the reasons Tesla owners return to Tesla. They know the are buying a superior product.
Many other companies do have loyalty programs. The airline industry is s good example. I am a lifetime 3 million miler in Contenental United . I get upgraded to first automatically if there is an empty seat three days ahead of my flight along with my spouse. As a Lifetime Three million Miler there is no black out on dates and no restriction on using my miles. I never have to fly a flight ever again and still maintain my status.
Many Tesla owners are on their second or third car and many couples both spouses own a Tesla. These are the reasons Tesla rewards loyalty. They don't need to incent new customers to buy as customers are lining up waiting to buy their cars. Tesla spends no money on advertisement and as long as ultimately make a great car at a reasonable price word of mouse is the only advertisement they need.
Tesla owners have earned this priveledge. and it is only fair that employees are allowed to reserve early. It is not like they are giving any of these people a discount, they are not, they are just getting the right to buy before others who have not proven their loyalty.
Finally Elon Musk realizes and has stated many times there would be no Model 3 or Tesla at all if it wasn't because of the loyal customers. At least he rewards loyalty. The Model 3 Buyers will never have the same impact as the Model S and X did on keeping the company going.
I do feel there should be a limit of one Model 3 per employee and a one for one Model 3 for existing Model S/X which get prioritized. There should also be limited timeframe that a person should have to make their deposit to qualify for a prioritized reservation. But based on prior experience there probably will not be a limit on when the order has to be placed or the number of Model 3 which get priority treatment.
So again based on history a person could wait two years to reserve and jump ahead others who have held a reservation for two years. This is what is happening right now with the Model X.
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trinites1a
Cookie | X60D
I'm sure it will be a fair amount but just like I said before I think options will play a big role. I think Telsa set the end of 2017 because they hopefully have learned from mistakes and I'm pretty sure they expect a huge amount of pre-orders and would plan accordingly to push cars out in a manner that should work though the list better that 40-50k a year. I totally understand going based on history but at some point they have to get it right and i think that will be with the model 3. Personally i plan to buy a 3 fully optioned or a comfortably equipped Model S 70D. That being said I think a fully optioned 3 will reduce "my" wait time significantly if i decide to go that route. Just my opinion at the end of the day but I think just like they are ahead with the 3 prototype the same way i think they stand a much better chance of doing things right this time around. I also think this is partly because they 3 is based on existing technology. No real innovation needs to be done. Like JB said they have the tech, performance and battery it's really about cost. In Model 3 i think it will be similar to a current S BECAUSE by the time the 3 rolls off the line current Model S tech will be 2 to 3 or even 4 years old aside from next gen autopilot which is probably just more cameras. The older tech is the cheaper to produce. Unlike the Model X that had more innovation like Falcon Doors and so on.
I would argue the opposite and say that non-owner model 3 buyers will be the real folks who will keep the company going. Tesla is currently in a deep hole in terms of debt, signifying that while model s and x are fantastic and super desirable, they're not making Tesla enough money to cover expenses, which makes them fail as a company. Yes, profit from sales of MS and MX went into M3 R&D, but Tesla's R&D will always be a huge money sink because innovation is their main selling point. Tesla is seriously banking on non-owner M3 buyers completely outnumbering MS/MX owners because that's how Elon achieves his mass-market EV, and how Tesla might start really reporting profits every quarter instead of one every few years.
Basically I don't agree with the notion that M3 buyers will never be as important as MS/MX owners/buyers. In fact, M3 buyers will be far more significant and crucial if Tesla is to survive. To that logic Tesla should be trying it's best to encourage new buyers, not rewarding old customers.
Don't get me wrong, loyalty should be valued and rewarded, just don't do it at the expense of losing some new buyers. Lots of people want to join the Tesla family, why not encourage that instead of making Tesla look like an exclusive club?
On a scale of 1 to fraud, how fraudulent would it be to deliver 199999 cars, then build 200k more over the next year and deliver them all in the subsequent quarter?
Is this even illegal? Even if it wasn't, it would probably paint Tesla in such a bad light with the government that they wouldn't dare. Probably doesn't make sense from a financial point of view either.
Those numbers are, as I'm sure you know, quite extreme. That'd obviously be crossing the line. Where I think you might see Tesla fudge the numbers a bit is to aim to deliver their 200,000th car at the beginning of a quarter. That way, Tesla customers get the full tax incentive for basically another 6 months. That way, everybody wins. I understand that Tesla has a history of caring about things like this. Hopefully they do their customers a solid, and hopefully it benefits everyone on this forum.
MassModel3
Member
I don't recall anyone saying that Model 3 buyers would be less important than existing owners. That was never the question. You're upset about Elon's (and the Board's) choice to reward customer loyalty. Importance and loyalty are vastly different. They know that in the long run, the Model 3 is the future of the company. Never in doubt. But those who have put down up to $40,000 deposits on a vehicle sight unseen, then waited 4+ years to get it, they absolutely deserve something for their faith in the company. So then should Tesla prioritize based on how much "good faith" people were willing to invest? That would be a complete logistical nightmare for them. So across the board, a thank you to existing customers seems appropriate.
I wouldn't have thought mice to be the best option to spread the Tesla gospel, but white mice are hyper-intelligent, pan-dimensional beings, so you may be on to something there after all...
I wonder where the line would be crossed. Yes, 200k is certainly extreme. But what about 50k? 10k? Couple that backlog with timing new production/deliveries beyond that at the beginning of the quarter and far more people could get the incentive. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
I don't own a Tesla, and I haven't followed the company since the beginning, but from what I 'have' read - and particularly by comparison to other car manufacturers - if any company would go out of their way to game the system for their customers, it would be Tesla. That's not to say they will, but I'd tend to think they'd be more likely to do so.
I was upset in the beginning, but I've gotten over it (partially bias because I live on the west coast heh...). It's been quoted a few times throughout the forum that "Model 3 wouldn't have existed without owners buying Model S/X", but just the same, MS/MX owners wouldn't be able to to keep Tesla alive if it wasn't for M3 buyers.
There were a lot of ways Tesla could've gone to reward the "good faith" people without compromising potential buyers, like Powerwall or home charger discounts. I'm one potential buyer who wasn't swayed by the decision, but for sure there are some potential buyers who calculated the possibility of getting a car way too late and decided to go the Bolt route.
it's easy to say oh, those are the people who aren't committed and Tesla can do fine without them, but that's the wrong business mentality. in fact, it's pretty much impossible that current owners will abandon Tesla because they weren't prioritized, so what did Tesla have to lose by not giving owners the priority?
ANYWAYS the decision has been made and the Tesla executives are a thousand times smarter than us
As I mentioned, I don't know unpublished specifics, but based on the wording of 30D, it appears on a scale of 1 to fraud, it would rank right around 1. There's nothing specifically fraudulent about doing this. It could be called manipulative, certainly. Fraudulent? Only if they lied about it, and I don't see a reason they'd need to do so.
