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Model X April Deliveries

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For what it's worth, here's an estimate I did before for someone asking about the 30k reservations vs. 2.7k deliveries gap...

All told, Tesla has sent about 7000 Model X into production at this point. (some delivered, some still in production, all 90's, all US)

The difference between that and the 30,000 reservations is: (along with my very rough estimates, very liberally rounded)
- International orders (~40% = 12,000), leaving 18,000 US reservations
- Cancellations (~10% = 2000), leaving 16,000 reservations
- Reservations waiting to Order to test drive, save up, let bugs to be fixed, etc. (~30% = 5000), leaving 11,000 reservations
- Orders for 70's (~10% = 1000), leaving 10,000 reservations
- Orders for 5 seat models (~10% = 1000), leaving 9,000 reservations

So of that very rough estimation, we would only expect around 9,000 (realistically, +/- several thousand) to be eligible for production at this point. Given that the actual number is currently 7,000 that seems wholly reasonable, especially if Tesla releases another batch of VIN's this week for any remaining 90's.

I'm curious how you arrived at this: "Tesla has sent about 7000 Model X into production at this point." Is there any tmc post referring to a vin and ds email or some such?
 
I spoke to my Delivery Specialist yesterday and he said my car wasn't built yet. It was about to get started on the production line. My order finalized in the beginning of March. My VIN is 32XX. I am in NJ so I understand transportation takes time but how does production/VIN order work? I'm see here people with similar VIN range scheduling delivery in a few days and much higher VINS being told their car is done. My car is P90D, BTW. I asked in mid May delivery was reasonable to expect and he said yes, that was about right. Hurry up already!
 
Great News. Just got off the phone with my DS , my Model X (VIN 31xx) is here in Atlanta. P90D, Midnight Silver, Black Onyx 22" rims, Black seats and headliner, Tow Package, Premium interior, Ultra Hi-Fi Sound.... He said that was the first with Black Onyx they had seen in the SC. Everyone came by to take a look. Will be picking up next week. How will I be able to play golf tomorrow. No sleep either. It's going to be a L-O-O-O-N-G seven days. I have to go clean the garage spot.

BTW... the MyTesla page has never changed from estimated April, early May delivery....No actual date was ever posted. So stuff happens even though the web page isn't updated. Keep the faith.
 
No this was a mass email I presume as I had made no special inquiry. I read it as my vehicle was either started after March 26 (or not at all), which is interesting in itself in that I was told during March to expect my vehicle "any day", when in fact it had not even started production. I get that this is a publicly traded company and they have to worry about the stock price constantly, but I have to think that better communication of exactly what is going on with these vehicles as they are produced would lead to less wild speculation by customers and shareholders alike.
Another possible scenario is that your car had been started and was in progress when the new seats were updated they took yours out of production and
So finally heard from my DS today that my X is headed to FL! I know there is a checklist on here somewhere I'll have to look it up so that when I do take delivery I'll be going over the car with a fine tooth comb;)

congrats! I'm a fellow Floridian waiting patiently, what was your VIN, and when did you get the VIN assigned?
 
Another possible scenario is that your car had been started and was in progress when the new seats were updated they took yours out of production and


congrats! I'm a fellow Floridian waiting patiently, what was your VIN, and when did you get the VIN assigned?

VIN was assigned in March. I don't exactly know when because I never received an email or a call. I was out of country on vacation and logged on to see if anything has changed and there was my VIN and an email address for an assigned DS. VIN 39xx
 
Just got off the phone with my DES. She stated it is in the finishing stages of production and going into QC very soon. I gave her a hard date last month of being able to get it delivered by the 23rd because I'll be out of town. Today she gave me a 45% probability that it will be delivered before then. I am optimistic that they are very conservative with their delivery guesses so as to not toy around with our feelings. hoping for a strong 45%!

Thanks Justine!