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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
I heard the same thing. I'm in Colorado so it will probably be from Fremont. I just hope that they don't have 4860 only out of austin and fremont is still on the older battery.
My guess is TX customers (West TX ?) will get Austin built MYs, once they are available.
WidowMaker03TX
Member
From Joe's latest drone video it appears Austin Gigafactory is getting very near to being ready to starting Model Y production.
Good stuff! It will be very interesting to see what upgrades they kick out at start of production (AMD, structural battery pack, 4680, etc). My guess is they will start with MYP since it’s lower volume and higher in the line. I’m also curious if the presumably lighter weight and potentially higher power output will put acceleration close to the M3P, or if Tesla will keep the MYP close to where it is now.
Time will tell!
Time will tell!
BGOwner
Active Member
From all my have heard. We are not close to AMD in the US, 4680 should start later in ‘22. But we should see the single front and rear castings
Joe Tegtmeyer has posted a Youtube video (see below) that provides estimates of the Tesla GigaTexas ramp up of Model Y production based on the Gigafactory China ramp up when it first started producing Model 3s. This estimate is triggered by a recent Tesla exec. saying they expected GigaTaxas to have a similar ramp up of production rates as they previously had when the factory in China went online.
The bottom line is for the first quarter of 2022 it is estimated that the new Gigafactory in Austin will produce an average of 1250 Model Ys per week with lower numbers in January 2022 and higher by March. This would be a total of approx. 15,000 MYs produced during the first 3 months of 2022. For the 2nd quarter it is estimated the average production rate will double to 2,500 MYs per week for about 30,000 MYs produced during the April thru June period. By the end of 2022 the total production rate for GigaTexas is expected to approach 5,000 per week (for MYs and perhaps some Cybertrucks). The numbers I have seen for USA sales in 2021 show approx. 45,000 MYs delivered in the 3rd quarter and increasing each quarter. So if Austin can actually produce 30,000 MYs in the 2nd quarter of 2022 that could account for a significant fraction of the total USA MY sales (but probably less than half).
IF GigaTexas were to have enough 4680 battery cells to use with the structural battery packs for all MY's produced in Austin, that would mean the Kato Rd. Tesla factory would need to supply approx. 1.3 million cells for the 15,000 structural battery packs that would be needed for the 1st quarter of 2022 and that number would need to double in the 2nd quarter. Is that possible? We do know that the Kato Rd. facility has been producing the 4680 cells for the past several months and that a few months ago they were hiring addition workers to increase battery production. Very recently there was a report that they have doubled the battery production, but I have not seen any info on what the battery production rates are. It appears the Austin production of 4680 cells expected to start by the 3rd quarter.
The bottom line is for the first quarter of 2022 it is estimated that the new Gigafactory in Austin will produce an average of 1250 Model Ys per week with lower numbers in January 2022 and higher by March. This would be a total of approx. 15,000 MYs produced during the first 3 months of 2022. For the 2nd quarter it is estimated the average production rate will double to 2,500 MYs per week for about 30,000 MYs produced during the April thru June period. By the end of 2022 the total production rate for GigaTexas is expected to approach 5,000 per week (for MYs and perhaps some Cybertrucks). The numbers I have seen for USA sales in 2021 show approx. 45,000 MYs delivered in the 3rd quarter and increasing each quarter. So if Austin can actually produce 30,000 MYs in the 2nd quarter of 2022 that could account for a significant fraction of the total USA MY sales (but probably less than half).
IF GigaTexas were to have enough 4680 battery cells to use with the structural battery packs for all MY's produced in Austin, that would mean the Kato Rd. Tesla factory would need to supply approx. 1.3 million cells for the 15,000 structural battery packs that would be needed for the 1st quarter of 2022 and that number would need to double in the 2nd quarter. Is that possible? We do know that the Kato Rd. facility has been producing the 4680 cells for the past several months and that a few months ago they were hiring addition workers to increase battery production. Very recently there was a report that they have doubled the battery production, but I have not seen any info on what the battery production rates are. It appears the Austin production of 4680 cells expected to start by the 3rd quarter.
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Is there a way to tell what pack is installed by looking at the vehicle's firmware or another way? It would be pretty crappy if they cut into one production line before the other if a customer isn't able to control/pick which they get. If Austin publicly acknowledges the new pack, but Fremont isn't including them, doesn't that severely devalue the Fremont VIN before it's even delivered? So they need to slowly/quietly introduce them to cut both over at the same time. Elon isn't quiet, so don't really think they'll go that route... and they don't seem capable of caring less about the customer experience either... so 
Tesla quietly started using 82kWh instead of 75kWh batteries in Ys earlier this year, so there is a precedent. That being said it seems the cleanest way to produce Ys with two different specs would be to start with MYPs (lower volume, higher line) in Austin with the new spec, while producing MYLR at Fremont with the current spec. When Austin can handle increased capacity, they start making MYLR with the new spec, at which point Fremont transitions to the new spec as well. Either way, at some point there will likely be some bleedover. Obviously, this is all speculation.Is there a way to tell what pack is installed by looking at the vehicle's firmware or another way? It would be pretty crappy if they cut into one production line before the other if a customer isn't able to control/pick which they get. If Austin publicly acknowledges the new pack, but Fremont isn't including them, doesn't that severely devalue the Fremont VIN before it's even delivered? So they need to slowly/quietly introduce them to cut both over at the same time. Elon isn't quiet, so don't really think they'll go that route... and they don't seem capable of caring less about the customer experience either... so
Interesting, thx for the reply.
I'm not a zealot tracking VINs and whatnot, but the sense I get from the boards is that deliveries are down this month/6 weeks. Maybe they are trying to time a retool/mod to the Fremont line with Austin coming online to minimize mismatched production lines.
There may not be a significant difference with the first changes. It might feel like a minor incremental thing. Much would depend on the casting situation, whether the pack has the new batteries or is in the temporary holding mode using the old ones.... then what Tesla decides to do to take advantage of the newer batteries on the scale ranging from more range same weight to less weight same range. Hard to imagine they will change all this at once.Is there a way to tell what pack is installed by looking at the vehicle's firmware or another way? It would be pretty crappy if they cut into one production line before the other if a customer isn't able to control/pick which they get. If Austin publicly acknowledges the new pack, but Fremont isn't including them, doesn't that severely devalue the Fremont VIN before it's even delivered? So they need to slowly/quietly introduce them to cut both over at the same time. Elon isn't quiet, so don't really think they'll go that route... and they don't seem capable of caring less about the customer experience either... so
It's my understanding that the front and rear giga-castings that will be used for all MYs from Austin are designed to use the structural battery pack. However, the current design (i.e., from Fremont) does not work with the structural battery packs. As I recall Elon or some other Tesla exec. has said (probably in Oct.) they have a work around for the Austin MYs in the event the 4680 batteries aren't ready for when production begins. I wonder if the Austin gigafactory could produce enough giga-castings both for their own needs as well as for Fremont for an interim/transition period while Fremont is upgrading their own factory to produce their own giga-castings. In any case the Fremont assembly line would need changes to use the giga-castings, so there would be some down time needed to retool/retrain. If this is possible then perhaps for an interim period Austin could be supplying the castings for both assembly plants while the Fremont Kato Rd. battery factory might be able to supply the 4680 cells and structural battery packs to both assembly plants. Of course, this is just speculation for how Fremont and Austin might be able to produce more similar versions of the MYs during the transition period.
BGOwner
Active Member
From what I read somewhere, that is the plan. Ship from Austin to Fremont, until Fremont can make their own
From the latest drone videos and pics from giga-Texas I would guess that we will see the first production MYs rolling out by the week of Jan. 3rd.
BGOwner
Active Member
From what I understand, at the start Austin will be making the castings for Fremont. Assume this is so Fremont can limit downtime. Guess once that starts, they can remove old presses and install new.
So Austin needs to start production for this to happen.
So there should be same MYs 2022 from both factories. That’s good to know since my Edd is January 22.
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