I'd assume you ordered prior to any of the price increases. I'd say accept your current MYP, drive it like a performance machine and when, not the imaginary time when the 4680s are being fully rolled out, order one and sell your 'old' MYP. Cars have been creatures that change over time, if you wait for 4680, once they're 'mainstream' there will be something else/option you'll be waiting for.
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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
I'm ok with jumping on the bandwagon for significant changes. Until solid state batteries materialize, the 4680 might be the next game changer with up to 16% longer range, faster charge times, less weight, better reliability, less cost, cleaner materials, etc. And that's not including the other rumored 2022 updates. For those not in a hurry it's a no brainer.
I believe we'll see them in the MY before CT production starts. Utilizing the 4680 saves Tesla money, so they are going to want to get that battery in a high volume vehicle as soon as possible.
Sunvalleylaw
Member
Makes sense that they would. I wonder what sort of "Beta testing" early customers might participate in as part of that, or if the type of battery won't matter much for user experience in any sort of glitchy way?
Exactly. It's a rare opportunity to gain performance/production benefits while improving Tesla's bottom line.
Agreed. I think they may even begin with the MYP since it's lower production and the performance gains will have a substancial impact on attrinutes aside from just range, attributes MYP purchasers really, really care about (more so than most LR buyers) such as handling, braking and acceleration.
So, with the above being a very real possibility, I think it's well worth waiting an extra 4-6 months. That and there are many other MYP changes we already know are in the pipeline and will hopefully be implemented in the next 6-8 months.
FACTS
Both Fremont and Austin have been producing FRONT, as well as REAR, Megacasts for months.
Evidence in Fremont is the thousands of castings stacked on the lot in the vicinity of the GigaPress machines. See YT Fremont drone overflight videos.
They've been rolling the Rear castings inside for use. The Front castings have been stacked outside.
This is also true in Austin. Rear castings have been being made since August; Fronts started in October.
Evidence for this is available from the Joe Tegtmeyer videos, to which I'm a subscriber.
Castings in Austin are stored inside the cavernous building (next to steel stampings of doors, hoods, etc in production frames).
OPINION
All available evidence points to Battery Pack delays resulting in the build-up of parts, and Tesla's reluctance to use their 'backup plan' of 2170 packs with castings.
The most compelling evidence is indirect - there being no word of BATTERY PACK TESTING STATUS.
It's the packs, ALONG WITH the batteries, that count most. The integrity of the v2.0 chassis relies on the pack as a structural element.
All that said, Tesla would have proceeded with 2710 packs if they thought 4680 packs were too far from production-ready.
Why? Because Tesla stands to gain tremendously from the production time + cost benefits of using the 4680 structural packs.
IMHO, Tesla does not want to further complicate their logistics (supplier, shipping, delivery, service) by building different versions at different factories.
I use as evidence the deliveries this last 10 days of dashboards, interior, and other parts to Austin from Fremont.
What a mess if they start using different / different.
I speculate that Fremont will be doing a brief shutdown of the MY line in January to re-fit for MY v2.0 chassis production. Might already be happening.
Evidence? Final construction of an all-weather causeway between the MY chassis fab building and the newly completed MY Giga 4.5 Sprung Structure (tent).
Efficiency improvements all around.
Further evidence? Tesla's Fremont Logistics Lot has bunches of MS and MX going out, and less than usual EoQ MY.
100K vehicles are worth 2X 50K vehicles on the balance sheet. Good time to convert the MY lines.
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I'm guessing you're on the bubble for a lighter weight, 4680 structural battery pack MYP.
70/30 pro 4680. Cancelling / re-order will cost you some more $$$ as well, so roll the dice and stay in. You can always do a Hold.
That car will weigh ~400lbs less than current v1.0, and have a better chassis.
I'm NOT optimistic that the suspension will be improved, or range will improve.
There's not enough competition available yet, although it's showing on the Media BS Horizon.
You'll see improvements on the MY only indirectly from the 4680.
You'll see no immediate range improvement. Why? No competition (forget the Media BS, it's not here yet). Tesla will use fewer batteries.
You will see lower weight, by 10% (400+lbs). That will get you handling and performance.
You will see better quality. The Megacastings and Structural Battery Pack will yield a more consistent chassis, and thus better fit/finish.
Sadly, paint will only improve if manufactured in Texas. Fremont is stuck with it's legacy paint shop facility.
Agreed, and given I think it makes sense for them to start production in Austin with the MYP, I think, as a MYP customer, it's worth waiting the extra few months for a 4680 car... even if it is a risk that could result in me not getting one for much longer than that.
Also, my situation is different than many. Both the wife and I telework 100% of the time... we don't even need a second car - waiting an extra few months just isn't a big deal (like it may be for others).
There's plenty of reasons for Tesla to continuously increase max range when the tech is available. Tesla needs to get both production count and sales up to further reduce costs. Tesla's competition is the mainstream buyer. That's M7's target audience. Today the M7 meets a niche, cutting-edge, buyer satisfied with shorter distance commutes. Tesla hasn't won the battle until the mainstream buyer can load the car with family and bags for an extended trip across open interstates where there may be no services for hours (Native American Reservation lands), mountainous territories, and/or cold climates. The M7's optimistic 330 mile EPA estimated max range isn't any where close to getting it done.
Cyberspeed
Member
agree - everyone says its too frequent to stop/charge for a everyday road trip car.
Shorter charging is coming via 250kw super chargers. If range was increased to 400-500 then worst case scenario would still yield trip times close to ICE cars.
right now this is my commuter and our trip car is a 2021 sienna hybrid. 34mpg is pretty amazing for a big car.
Going all the way back to battery day in Sept. 2020 it was said the new batteries when used in a structural battery pack would increase the range by 16% and it was later reported that the MY weight reduction resulting from the new giga-castings and the structural battery pack would result in an increased range of (an additional) 14%. If both of these are true then that would give a MY LR a little over 400 mile range. However, even if these are both correct, the real question is will Tesla initially be using structural battery packs that are fully populated with 4680 cells or will they reduce the number of cells to produce a range similar to, or perhaps just a little better than, the current MY LR's EPA 330 mile range..
Cyberspeed
Member
I see this as a way to reduce cost & increase profits. Not sure tesla will do a 400 mile range on the Y or 3. it would rival model S and beyond size and a few other features it would likely diminish range.
this is just my opinion and based on nothing other than pure speculation...
What's an M7 ???? oh, your consistent typo
Tesla needs profits. They have two factories being built to pay for.
They can't make nearly enough MY cars to meet demand, so raising the price has been the response, not adding range.
Tesla is at least a year away from being able to manage their demand problem (a sort-of good problem to have).
Further, more range isn't necessary in today's real world market.
There's no competition worth mentioning yet.
Forget Media clickbait hype. No one but Tesla right now can actually deliver anything that makes a dent.
As much as you may rationalize, reality is the above.
The MYP is a very good choice and an improved comparative value now that Tesla has raised the MYLR price.
Enjoy it when you get it.
Very few people have 'everyday road trip' requirements.
I used to drive 30,000 miles a year.
Each weekday was 150+.
Tell me how I need to recharge during the day, when range is already 250-300. I'd just charge in the garage at night.
You're rationalizing your desire but ignoring reality.
Reality is the above; I was an extreme use case. Most people drive under 15K per year.
The only use cases in which range anxiety becomes a factor is day-long road trips, cross country, or vacation driving.
How many of those do you do a year? One or two? Maybe three?
Tesla's SuperCharger network pretty much handles that requirement now.
No one else does that. NO ONE. Other charging station vendors have maintenence and availability problems, big time.
Further, there's NO COMPETITION.
Name a longer range vehicle you can take delivery of within the next 6 months (or even a year).
THERE ARE NONE.
Tesla has raised the pricing on their most popular vehicle, the MY, several times.
A rational, business-like response to supply/demand imbalance.
Meanwhile, notice no range discussion by Tesla. EVER, in any forum.
You are correct. Waiting is a good thing for now.After reading all this, I guess I’m ok with my EDD being currently TBD for WEEKS.
pepperoni
Member
Mach-E CA Rte 1, 314 mile range, delivered in 20 weeks for $6K cheaper than the lowest priced trim on the Y (which delivers in Nov 22 according to Tesla). I know you qualified “longer range” but that’s close enough to the advertised range of the Y.
No doubt Tesla has been doing well, but it is hubris to suggest there is no competition. Tesla has started to lose EV market share to other competitors, and that will only accelerate as more EVs come to market. Tesla will have to compete to stay on top in the future.
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