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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
don't let the cybertrucks wiper hit you on the way out ....I'll check back next week
Panasonic is on its own 4680 production ramp, curve. They asked Tesla if they could make 4680 batteries for them. Tesla, said, sure, why not! But Tesla had already been working on its own production. So, I don't think these time lines are linked. Plus, that is a leak, Panasonic has not confirmed anything. So we don't know anything about Panasonic's ramp, just rumors./cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/11423501/acastro_180524_1777_tesla_0003.jpg)
Panasonic will reportedly start mass producing next-gen Tesla batteries in 2023
Tesla also hopes to produce the batteries in-house.www.theverge.com
So, do we really think with cells from Kato and maybe Austin that Austin is ready to mass produce 4680 Ys? Leads more credence to either a slow ramp at Austin (like China) or starting with 2170 cells. Or would these Panasonic 4680 strictly be in China for China and Berlin?
Also, circling back to cost reduction that people keep pointing to as to why Tesla will start with these immediately. The 14% reduction is in battery cost which in itself is 30% cost if the total vehicle. That means the cost reduction relation to the vehicle is 4.2%. If there is a 30% profit margin on the vehicles, that would equate to a reduction of base price by about $3500. Not insignificant but not as Much as many people make it seem.
I saw a report from the Fair they had at the Berlin Giga Factory that showed examples of both the 2170 and 4680 structural battery packs. So, the 4680, I expect will only ever be in the structural format, but the 2170's haven't been. I am assuming that either of these structural packs will be able to be installed on any production vehicle, but I am not certain that is true.
The 2170 is not a structural pack. They made a modified frame that can connect the front and rear megacasts and use 2170s, but this is different than a battery structure designed to eliminate an external frame (structural 4680).
Tesla has stated that the Model Y casts can be used with either. The Cybertruck is fully dependent on 4680 structural AFAIK.
which could make the MY end up even heavier than the current 2170 setup, or at least erase some of the modest weight savings of being able to use the front casting.
While we’re all enjoying one last round of pre-earnings-call speculation.
CyberGus
Not Just a Member
I believe you that "2170 is not a structural pack", but I'd really like to understand the science on that. Why is a 4680 rigid enough to give a pack structure, but a slightly smaller rigid steel can is not?
Help us, Jordan Giesige
The 2170 isn't a structural pack (as far as we know) . There is no reason they couldn't design a structural pack that used 2170 instead of 4680. The question is would they ...
I think it would be far more likely that they start building MY's only with a Structural battery pack then without. Can't see them modifying their assembly line process to build MY's the with a different process the they will be using in a few more months. A 2170 structural pack would still have some weight savings and let them use the exact same process but it would have had to of been crash tested etc... and again the question is do you go through all that design and testing for just a few months of manufacturing.
Someone will absolutely put it more elegantly... my background is in composite engineering rather than metals .... but a few things... If it is going to be plug and play for the later 4680, it will be too tall to work the same way with the shorter batteries, and need more internal structure. It’s also true that if you weren’t going to make the interim pack as thick (not likely), given the same material used to construct the two versions, the later thick (4680) one would be substantially stiffer in torsion etc.
An interim 2170 pack built to 4680 structural pack size would have to have a fair amount more material in it to make its structural behavior similar. Tesla is clever and will figure out a way to hold the extra weight vs the 4680 version to a dull roar, but ... there’s no avoiding more weight, it’s pretty much a straight issue of physics.
In summation, more weight or ( less stiffness ) than 4680 is unavoidable but its unclear whether using this interim 2170 pack they than can beat the current weight without the front casting.
There are a couple reasons the modified 2170 has been floated.
One is availability of batteries. 2170 is proven and available with high yields. This allows them to move forward with Giga Berlin and Giga Austin production even if 4680 wasn’t ready.
In addition from a future supply chain capability they can move forward with Cybertruck and Semi and if 4680 becomes supply constrained they can use 2170 in Model Y again.
Which of course is why the whole theory of the 4680 Model Y being a meaningful different vehicle (range or performance) is wrong. The whole process was designed to make the 4680 transparent to the user and give Tesla supply chain flexibility. But the rumors of 5 min charging and 400 mile range Model Ys is more interesting so those just keep coming back.
Edit: to be clear before someone jumps on me… the 4680 Model Y is meaningful in the industry and manufacturing at the same level as mass production and unibody construction were. Its HUGE in terms of impact to the industry and process. For the user, they should in theory not know whether they have a 4680 or a 2170 frame based Model Y. Yes there will be a difference and people who know will know but majority of buyers won’t. And the 1-2 year plan is all Model Y are 4680. Eventually the 2170 frame goes away but until all the 4680 plants get up to volume production Tesla absolutely has to have flexibility or CT and Semi will be impacted.
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FACT
It's about engineering, not science.
The 4680 battery pack is a structural element and put simply, replaces the floorpan on the MY v2.0 chassis. The batteries actually become stressed, structural elements.
The alternative 'backup plan' 2170 battery pack requires reinforcing to be added to the chassis floorpan, much as the current chassis has.
There are concept drawings, and photos from the Berlin Open House, showing these differences.
OPINION
4680 production has been delayed and the 2170 backup plan pack was a stopgap in case 4680 had real hiccups. Good engineering plan.
Both the Texas and Berlin factories have also been delayed.
Because the economics of the 4680 + F+R megacast v2.0 chassis is so advantageous, Tesla has waited for it, rather than rush alternatives out.
Consequently Tesla is not likely to use a 2170 battery pack in the refreshed, MY v2.0 chassis.
Why do 2 versions when the one makes much more profit than the other and is faster to build? The only reason might be constraints on 4680 production capacity.
My guess is we see very limited MY customer production from Austin starting in March. Look at China ramp-up history as a guide to what Austin might do going forward.
Yes, spot on. It is going to come down to current 4680 supply and production levels and short-term outlook for 4680 production as to what batteries Austin starts MY with. And those things are a mystery. Just hope they aren’t after tonight.
Sludog
Member
Wasting breathe or typing until Elon hopefully spills the beans today about production. Let’s wait for the messiah to speak today before speculation begins. 
Not sure discussing the 4680 vs 2170 frame benefits is speculation since it’s already fact and the details are known, but sure.Wasting breathe or typing until Elon speaks today about production. Let’s wait for the messiah to speak today before speculation begins.
Now if you want to know what’s coming out of Austin when that would be speculation. We also know volume wise in the world there is not enough production of 4680 to supply Austin and Berlin at full ramp not will there be until likely next year (Guessing when is speculation that might get clarity tonight). And since they both are built to only use megacasts for front and rear… well that story writes itself. Tesla either goes limited volume in its most efficient plants or uses at best a mix of batteries - that’s what I expect to get clarity from Elon on tonight. I won’t speculate because the “messiah” hasn’t spoken yet.
There’s already a lot of facts out there. The only part that gets speculative is when people start trying to ignore the facts.
Not much useful in the written part of the earnings report. Just the fact that they say pre-production cars were built at Austin in late 2021, which we kinda already knew. Then there are photos of a line of blue ones, maybe a black one mix in, that look exactly like that line of new ones charging the other day that the drone caught.
Someone sharper than me -- which would be almost anyone here -- with front casting and MY parts recognition needs to look at the photos of those under construction and see if there’s anything interesting.
One photo of workers attaching seats to a structural pack... but really that isn’t particularly useful. Doesn’t tell us which batteries are in that pack and what car its going in and when they will be in production. Can only hope for more details in the live call in an hour. I just fear they will have much ground to cover and not a lot of incentive to get specific about 4680 plans for Austin.
Someone sharper than me -- which would be almost anyone here -- with front casting and MY parts recognition needs to look at the photos of those under construction and see if there’s anything interesting.
One photo of workers attaching seats to a structural pack... but really that isn’t particularly useful. Doesn’t tell us which batteries are in that pack and what car its going in and when they will be in production. Can only hope for more details in the live call in an hour. I just fear they will have much ground to cover and not a lot of incentive to get specific about 4680 plans for Austin.
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The germans are on their own... we are cutting them loose to fend for themselves battery-wise. I think I can speak for the others on the East Coast MY wait list on this.
That's what I was thinking. I kind of figured Austin was the focus for the 4680's, but I'm not as up to date on this as many people.
I mean, I'm clowning around on that. But there pretty clearly has been intent to get the structural pack and front casting setup in place Austin from the beginning. And chassis created for that and packs have appeared in photos from there. That’s about all we have to work with for another 45 mins.
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