Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Mrbrock]

Here in CA we don't get assigned VINs until the car is produced. I received my VIN on 1/15 and car was born on 1/14, earliest I was able to pick up was 1/18. My understanding is they assign VINs once the car is complete (otherwise they could assign a VIN at order date and just make sure that is what is stamped on the car when it is made). If you aren't in CA, the lag between VIN and a confirmed delivery window is based on scheduling transportation to the nearest delivery location (which can take 7-10 days or more depending on weather) and then a couple days to prep the car and then your 3 day window. You will have a range until the vehicle lands at the delivery center. Like you say, it will be interesting to see if Austin is any different.

Any chance your sources could comment on the production split between LR and P vehicles at this point? Just a percentage so they don't have to divulge production numbers? If they have a VIN assigned database it should be easy to search for all VINs assigned with 11th digit A and then compare how many 8th digit Es to Fs. Still seems odd to have 140+ LR outside and no reports of a LR VIN yet the first somewhat plausible VIN is MYP.

 

[advocate8]

You're right in that a pass in the NHTSA checker doesn't mean much in and of itself. From what I understand, what my sources checked was VINs assigned. Not ones that could be made. When you are assigned a VIN, it takes a little while for the car to be produced. My Mom got her LR Model Y VIN about 2 weeks ago and the car wasn't complete until many days later, and only then was she given a precise delivery date, rather than a range. Unsure of how the Texas process is and if initial builds will take a little longer to complete since they are still working things out obviously on the production line. Guess time will tell what happens.

Ok, thanks much sawyer. Many many mysteries remain. White? MYP? we ain’t seeing it at the factory. And Berlin cranking out hundreds of black and only a few white much further into a ramp up.
But....I guess now we can get back to our endless speculation about capacity of the structural packs. the ramp-up speed and when Fremont will shift to structural pack.

 

[BGOwner]

Looks like even more MYs at Austin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498051927115972614

 

[buddhafree]

Looks like even more MYs at Austin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498051927115972614

I still see only MYLR with 19" wheels. All black and blue. No MYPs and no white cars unless you count this minivan

 

[Sto88]

I still see only MYLR with 19" wheels. All black and blue. No MYPs and no white cars unless you count this minivan

Could be black and the lighting, but some look like MSM if I zoom in? Might be dust too.

 

[buddhafree]

Could be black and the lighting, but some look like MSM if I zoom in? Might be dust too.

Likely dust

 

[BGOwner]

Likely dust
View attachment 774643

Agree, I only see 3 colors. Black, Blue and Dust

 

[advocate8]

Still, a good increase in confirmable numbers. Nothing wrong with blue MYLR either heh heh.

 

[Destiny1701]

I have an MYP edd March 12-22nd…hmm I. Don’t see any in that group of hundreds sitting at Austin..

 

[Mrbrock]

So ~140 to 227? In 2 days? (I haven't been watching the daily videos, sorry) 43 per day? 5 per hour?

 

[advocate8]

So ~140 to 227? In 2 days? (I haven't been watching the daily videos, sorry) 43 per day? 5 per hour?

Who knows… Some may have been stored inside awhile. The number has not only gone up, once, after a bunch were outside under those covers the number went down on same day some videoed driving back inside…
Would be impossible I think to extrapolate production rate for now.

 

[BillyG2022MYP]

I am sure they are just keeping all of the MYP's inside so they don't get dirty and dusty.
We need a close up of them red brake calipers! Maybe they are waiting to get in a shipment of 21" Uberturbine wheels and some rear carbon spoilers. It won't be long until someone turns a MYP into a sleeper. It wouldn't take much to slap on some 19's, remove the spoiler & a badge and paint those calipers gray.

 

[advocate8]

I am sure they are just keeping all of the MYP's inside so they don't get dirty and dusty.
We need a close up of them red brake calipers! Maybe they are waiting to get in a shipment of 21" Uberturbine wheels and some rear carbon spoilers. It won't be long until someone turns a MYP into a sleeper. It wouldn't take much to slap on some 19's, remove the spoiler & a badge and paint those calipers gray.

That’s the thing, it is surely not a huge stretch to run MYP though the same production line as MYLR. There’s no reason they can’t deliver MYPs despite the raft of what seems to be only MYLR. I would think setting up to do a batch of white ones would be fractionally harder. But... Sawyer seems pretty sure the white MYP VIN is legit. For now there’s not much to do but speculate and wait for the next movement of cars on the apron, hard facts on the EPA approval, and cars to be delivered to owners prior to the April party, since that white one is unlikely to actually be the first, just “one of.”

 

[Destiny1701]

So I have to ask…what’s so imp about Austin made MY if it’s still 2170 and older structural cast?

Isn’t it the 4680/cast which is the big cheese here? Not just hoping for a car off the A production line which is brand new and subject to the usual ramp up woes?

 

[Fairchild]

That’s the thing, it is surely not a huge stretch to run MYP though the same production line as MYLR. There’s no reason they can’t deliver MYPs despite the raft of what seems to be only MYLR. I would think setting up to do a batch of white ones would be fractionally harder. But... Sawyer seems pretty sure the white MYP VIN is legit. For now there’s not much to do but speculate and wait for the next movement of cars on the apron, hard facts on the EPA approval, and cars to be delivered to owners prior to the April party, since that white one is unlikely to actually be the first, just “one of.”

Ya. It doesn't really make sense...to us anyway. Especially since their pattern is to produce the more expensive version first and LRs have a long wait time on the configurator (Aug) compared to the YP which is April. But Tesla beats to it's own drummer.

 

[Soap]

So I have to ask…what’s so imp about Austin made MY if it’s still 2170 and older structural cast?

Isn’t it the 4680/cast which is the big cheese here? Not just hoping for a car off the A production line which is brand new and subject to the usual ramp up woes?

Who said its not the new cast out of Austin? I have only seen chatter that is the ONLY thing coming out of that site. (all speculation of course)

 

[Fairchild]

So I have to ask…what’s so imp about Austin made MY if it’s still 2170 and older structural cast?

Isn’t it the 4680/cast which is the big cheese here? Not just hoping for a car off the A production line which is brand new and subject to the usual ramp up woes?

From what I heard from the shareholder meeting, Austin is going to kick off with only 4680s, new casts, and of course, a new battery pack.

Is Fremont making Model Ys with just the front cast and not the back? Not sure, I'd want a "half-cast" car! Seems like that would seriously affect the driving dynamics.

 

[advocate8]

They are almost certainly not building non-structural pack cars in Austin. There has been video of chassis with no floor -- dead giveaway -- and photos from production line there of MY being built with structural pack, and exec saying in Q4 earnings call he had driven one there.
These COULD be 2170 in modified structural pack but.... it is not likely at all they set up the production line to do structural pack, then reworked it to do the older chassis style ... while planning to shift it BACK to structural..... they wouldn’t want to have to retool the production line even once like Fremont eventually will be forced to do.
Elon has said there was an interim solution for using a structural pack without 4680. No doubt they would prefer not to do that, it is NOT an elegant engineering solution..... but one of the many, many murky things about all this is how in heck they could ramp up properly with what appeared to be pretty low production rates of 4680s.
In short, either they have enough 4680s, or they are using a modified structural pack that is getting its structure from additional metal rather than the shorter 2170s.

 

[advocate8]

From what I heard from the shareholder meeting, Austin is going to kick off with only 4680s, new casts, and of course, a new battery pack.

Is Fremont making Model Ys with just the front cast and not the back? Not sure, I'd want a "half-cast" car! Seems like that would seriously affect the driving dynamics.

they already make a half cast.... the Fremont Y has the casting in the rear already.

 

[Destiny1701]

Who said its not the new cast out of Austin? I have only seen chatter that is the ONLY thing coming out of that site. (all speculation of course)

Thsts what I mean. It’s all spec here. How is it not one leak? Are Tesla factory workers as tight as the CIA?

So what if it’s just the same as F builds for the first 6 months ? Still willing to hold an order?

I’d like all of you to be correct and 4680 underway