the only absolutes are what end up in your driveway.
wishful (magical) thinking dominates ... euphanistically described as rationalizing.
And of course Tesla doesn't discourage that...
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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
wishful (magical) thinking dominates ... euphanistically described as rationalizing.
And of course Tesla doesn't discourage that...
Mrbrock
Active Member
Without a huge price increase, putting 4680s in MY will not lead to Tesla making more money. There is a huge investment cost in the 4680 right now since none have been sold. That cost doesn't come down until mass production is possible. To switch all MY over to 4680, Austin and/or Fremont will need roughly 5k 4680 packs per week. There have been no signs that they even have one pack produced from the pilot line in Reno much less have built out to produce 5,000 per week. Yes there appears to be equipment in Austin to produce these but who knows if that is mass production equipment or still test equipment. I am still saying that when 4680 is available, it will go into one specific type of MY first (maybe a LR+ or P+ with extra range) but seriously doubt it will go into a standard LR Y until battery production can meet demand and then all MY production at Fremont and Austin will switch to 4680.
I do think think they'll do a plus version... I think they might just go straight Model YP. We'll see.
I agree with everything except for the need of a huge price increase. 4680 cells are cheaper to make than current cells, so I think once they go into production with them, the initial investment costs will be made up for.
While I agree that a "MY Plus" variant will get offered, several things need to happen before that version of the MY arises.
1. 4680 production in volume
2. 4680 volume sufficient to support the CT, the SEMI, and the ROADSTER - which likely means multiple 4680 vendors
3. credible competition to the MY, in volume
My guess is two years before a 'Plus' gets offered, and it may just become the MY standard offering.
Remember, the fewer the variants/option/etc, the simpler the manufacturing is.
Tesla wants volume first and foremost, to drive down cost and increase market penetration.
Mrbrock
Active Member
They WILL be cheaper to make in the long run. They are not currently, guaranteed. They still need to see if they meet expectations before that statement can be confirmed and then they will need to be mass produced before they become cheaper.
Totally agree. While I do think 4680 will go into MY, it will be after it goes into other vehicles that benefit much more from more energy density in less space because of the need for more energy in those vehicles.
roblab
Active Member
And then, when the Model Y gets all these goodies, more power, faster acceleration, the price goes up. Then the complaining goes up. It's not so much that the manufacturing is "simpler" but there's less to the car to raise the price. Everybody wants a bunch of goodies, but they want them at the price of the original. Ain't gonna happen.
The competition for resources is driving up those commodity prices, meaning end-prices rise or margins decline.
However, in the case of Tesla, they got ahead of all that, locked in their commodity costs, and are making batteries themselves.
Name another vehicle manufacturer doing that.
Only BYD in China.
Tesla retains better pricing power than anyone, especially with the manufacturing assets now in place.
They can pursue profits or market share at will.
Elon's got his money. I think he'll go for share. That says Tesla prices moderate.
Aren’t consumers paying almost $10k more for the Model Y than a year ago? I am wondering if the increased costs could be built in to the current pricing structure.
Increased costs
Government tax incentives
Order backlog
Are all factored into the price increases from 2021.
I've got a feeling the Model Y will be the first vehicle to get the 4680... in fact I thought that was the general consensus among almost everyone. Wasn't there even a Y chassis spotted in Austin that folks think is the next step... a chassis built for the structural battery pack?
Breaking: A bit of news I just heard at the site today... actual production for Giga Texas starts next week! They are driving finished cars inside the factory already and several completed cars are already at testing sites out of state getting crash and other testing completed.
12:14 PM · Dec 31, 2021·Twitter for iPhone
The wait for the transport trucks to take them to customers begins......
Should be interesting for a couple weeks.
Could be unrelated but my EDD moved from July to Mar-Apr today, and I am east of TX. I’m wondering if they are beginning to schedule production runs for the new factory.
BGOwner
Active Member
Mrbrock
Active Member
Yes, 1 body, not hundreds or even thousands. I do not think they are ready for mass production of 4680 MY. They may be making the first pack that is going into the first body, then all of that needs to be tested in house before making a few more for sending out for legal testing. It is very unlikely they are going from the equipment being delivered 2 months ago and experiencing problems even making 4680 cell components to making packs for mass producing within 2 months. The line was ust pictured as being installed 2 weeks ago so again, they might not even be making successful 4680 cells yet, the equipment is there but the process may not be figured out yet. They are set to use 2170 to start per Elon in August.
Tesla Giga Texas Receives Equipment for 4680 Battery Cell Production
Tesla Giga Texas continues to receive equipment to manufacture 4680 battery cells as the manufacturer aims to begin mass production in 2022. A truck with a container that says "anode line 1" drove into a building on the north side.
www.tesmanian.com
Until the backlog for MY is eaten through where they can pause Fremont and Texas while switching over, there is no reason to switch to 4680. Remember all the castings at Fremont they are just starting to work through? They will do the same with 4680. They need to stockpile enough to make 4,000 cars per week. And unless they switch all of one type of car to Fremont and another type to Austin, they will not make multiple models of Model Y that will be different where you are in the country. Do you charge different prices? At some point Tesla will need to pause and have everything be the same at both plants in the US, that is when 4680 will be introduced. There is no sign of that happening soon in Fremont and if Austin is ready to produce MY with 2170, they will conitnue with that until they can do the changeover properly. Remember no Model S for a year when Plaid was being introduced?
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