Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Michael Y 2020]

Mach-E CA Rte 1, 314 mile range, delivered in 20 weeks for $6K cheaper than the lowest priced trim on the Y (which delivers in Nov 22 according to Tesla). I know you qualified “longer range” but that’s close enough to the advertised range of the Y.

No doubt Tesla has been doing well, but it is hubris to suggest there is no competition. Tesla has started to lose EV market share to other competitors, and that will only accelerate as more EVs come to market. Tesla will have to compete to stay on top in the future.

Tesla's are the 'gold standard' IMHO. They've been manufacturing EV only vehicles for years and increasingly have updated their tech/knowledge. Other ICE manufactures have a learning curve to the EV market, while also producing their ICE vehicles. Tesla will always advance their product while other's will have to leap years into their future to compete with Tesla. Also, the demand alone speaks volumes to the 'problems' that Tesla has vice other manufactures...IMHO

 

[rocketspeter]

I just placed an order for MYP with EDD between Jan 24 - Feb 21. I wish my MYP can get the new AMD Ryzen chip, Michelin AS tires, and new 4680 batteries.

 

[Steve S]

I just placed an order for MYP with EDD between Jan 24 - Feb 21. I wish my MYP can get the new AMD Ryzen chip, Michelin AS tires, and new 4680 batteries.

You can wish in one hand and in the other. Let me now which hand fills up quicker.

 

[kabin]

What's an M7 ???? oh, your consistent typo

Tesla needs profits. They have two factories being built to pay for.
They can't make nearly enough MY cars to meet demand, so raising the price has been the response, not adding range.
Tesla is at least a year away from being able to manage their demand problem (a sort-of good problem to have).

Further, more range isn't necessary in today's real world market.
There's no competition worth mentioning yet.
Forget Media clickbait hype. No one but Tesla right now can actually deliver anything that makes a dent.

As much as you may rationalize, reality is the above.
The MYP is a very good choice and an improved comparative value now that Tesla has raised the MYLR price.
Enjoy it when you get it.

It's a chicken/egg argument for the short/long term. Of course Tesla will gladly take advantage of today's conditions and those willing to stand in line to throw more money at them but that's not the mainstream long term buyer.

Tesla doesn't expect to make the profits up front with low volume. No company investing billions in a gigafactory could or would. They need to significantly increase production counts so the cost per vehicle drops and the profit per vehicle increases. They make up the investment over time and more vehicle sales and that's why they need to be competitive and cost sensitive.

Not sure what kind of ideal 'real world market' you envision but one could imagine it being short daily drives with nightly garaged battery charges. More range is an absolute need especially today with more people wanting to do cross country drives to visit family versus fly or living in icy conditions and needing to defrost windows before you can safely see out the windows to drive home or being a regional sales rep with 600 miles of driving per day. That's the real world mainstream buyer. We did a 7 hour one way drive over the holidays and only saw a handful of Tesla on the open highways. That's the real world today.

And you may not be paying attention if you're suggesting the MYP is a 'very good' idea for a mainstream buyer expecting a comfortable driving feel, max range, and normal wheel/tires size. That my friend, is a niche within a niche.

 

[tangible1]

Mach-E CA Rte 1, 314 mile range, delivered in 20 weeks for $6K cheaper than the lowest priced trim on the Y (which delivers in Nov 22 according to Tesla). I know you qualified “longer range” but that’s close enough to the advertised range of the Y.

No doubt Tesla has been doing well, but it is hubris to suggest there is no competition. Tesla has started to lose EV market share to other competitors, and that will only accelerate as more EVs come to market. Tesla will have to compete to stay on top in the future.

I agree that Tesla will have to compete.
The question is ... when?
Their product plans, manufacturing assets, and charging infrastructure are geared up.
Who else is at that stage? And who can generate the cash to invest?

It's not hubris to state facts. I'm no fanboi, but the truth is no competitor is capable of making a dent in Tesla's product line soon.
Tesla will deliver almost a million EV's this year, and close to double that next year.
Meanwhile, the Mach-E might sell 45,000 units if they're lucky. I'm doubtful. Ford delivered 5600 in all of Q3. But it's early and will grow.

It's accurate to state that Tesla will lose market share. That's inevitable, as they're among the few manufacturers delivering electric vehicles at all.
But it's safe to say Tesla will remain the unit volume leader for some time to come. Several years at least.
Someone is gonna have to deliver a very compelling product spec, price, and charging network to make a dent.

Ford better execute perfectly on the F-150 Lightning; because the Mach-E ain't it.
Regardless, there will be many offerings thrown at the wall.
Having choices is good.

 

[tangible1]

It's a chicken/egg argument for the short/long term. Of course Tesla will gladly take advantage of today's conditions and those willing to stand in line to throw more money at them but that's not the mainstream long term buyer.

Tesla doesn't expect to make the profits up front with low volume. No company investing billions in a gigafactory could or would. They need to significantly increase production counts so the cost per vehicle drops and the profit per vehicle increases. They make up the investment over time and more vehicle sales and that's why they need to be competitive and cost sensitive.

Not sure what kind of ideal 'real world market' you envision but one could imagine it being short daily drives with nightly garaged battery charges. More range is an absolute need especially today with more people wanting to do cross country drives to visit family versus fly or living in icy conditions and needing to defrost windows before you can safely see out the windows to drive home or being a regional sales rep with 600 miles of driving per day. That's the real world mainstream buyer. We did a 7 hour one way drive over the holidays and only saw a handful of Tesla on the open highways. That's the real world today.

And you may not be paying attention if you're suggesting the MYP is a 'very good' idea for a mainstream buyer expecting a comfortable driving feel, max range, and normal wheel/tires size. That my friend, is a niche within a niche.

Tesla is addressing the chicken/egg head on by building out their manufacturing capabilities and securing supplier commodities.
They are leveraging their market valuation to accomplish it. All in, as Elon would claim.
And you're right, volume gets cost advantages, so early bird gets worms to feast on.

But the real world is real activity, not 'desired' activity, and truth is truth.
People don't really drive as much as you would like to believe. They may WANT to, but in truth they Do Not.
Once or twice a year road trips isn't the volume you would think.
Flying is just easier and less time consuming for most, present complications notwithstanding. Those will pass.

70% of Tesla deliveries thru 2020 have been to CA and close-in states, followed by the NE area (not sure what 2021 looks like yet).
The Southwest is not a big User base yet.
Look at Tesla's charging network in Texas. NOT THERE MUCH. Even though it's now their HQ. That's changing..... so you'll see more, and soon.
Let's also not forget that people still have ICE vehicles. The EV doesn't have to do it all yet. I expect it will be a few years before range increases much.

The MYP isn't a comfortable family car. In fact it's suspension is a weak point.
I was actually thinking I was responding to a different post about a MYP order while typing to you! My bad !

 

[Evthusiast]

As a 2013 Model S60 owner. Originally 210mile range, now 180mile range with degradation at 95k miles.
I truly wish they continue to increase milage for model Y and S....well all cars.
I bought the S60 as first generation, knowing that I would replace it with something that has more milage eventually.
I found that even 210 miles per charge was a bit of a pain on road trips.
I went with that range based on getting anywhere in Southern California non stop. Getting to destination was easy....once there it was range anxiety without charging first at the hotel or supercharger. Also before heading home on a road trip...the pain of making sure I was fully charged. All that considering I am a super organized, plan the hotels with chargers etc. My first road trips in 2013-14 would always plan for a hotel with charging and limited superchargers. It worked out fine, but now I am sick of it. I want 400 miles plus, not 315, not 350. Of course it is for road trips.
Keep in mind the 2013 model S also supercharges way slower than a model 3 or Y. I am sitting at a supercharger for 1.5 hours just to get a good charge.
Local driving, I could technically keep my 180 mile range model S for ever, but better to sell it soon while used car prices are fairly high.

 

[tangible1]

As a 2013 Model S60 owner. Originally 210mile range, now 180mile range with degradation at 95k miles.
I truly wish they continue to increase milage for model Y and S....well all cars.
I bought the S60 as first generation, knowing that I would replace it with something that has more milage eventually.
I found that even 210 miles per charge was a bit of a pain on road trips.
I went with that range based on getting anywhere in Southern California non stop. My first road trips in 2013-14 would always plan for a hotel with charging and limited superchargers. It worked out fine, but now I am sick of it. I want 400 miles plus, not 315, not 350. Of course it is for road trips.
Keep in mind the 2013 model S also supercharges way slower than a model 3 or Y. I am sitting on a road trip for 1.5 hours just to get a good charge.
Local driving, I could technically keep my 180 mile range model S, but better to sell it soon while used car prices are fairly high.

Agree, sell it sooner than later if you can or wish.
But reality is you can wait a year (or more) for a Lucid for that range, 6 months for an MS or MX for about that range.
Or just keep an ICE or HEV for the road trips.

I was an outlier doing 30K miles per year, 150+ a day, for a long long time.
250 real-world mile range with overnight charging would be fine for that. MY delivers for that requirement.
Your S60 would suffice, but I was home most nights and it sounds like you're not.
If you're not, hard to argue - get an ICE, or get an HEV for it's virtues.

 

[Fairchild]

It is true that no manufacturer has perfected QAQC on a new production line at the beginning and Tesla is no exception. Sh*t will happen 100%. While parts are more advanced, the final assembly will not be up to standard at the very beginning.

And as I understand it, Austin Giga will build cars for the Eastern US. I have a MY Perf ordered with an estimated delivery time of Feb. I wonder if any Perf Ys will be made at the Austin Giga.

I just sold my MY LR Red to a TN dealer for $8000 more than I paid for it. Couldn't resist. Driving a one-owner 2014 Model S which has been fun.

 

[kithytom]

And as I understand it, Austin Giga will build cars for the Eastern US. I have a MY Perf ordered with an estimated delivery time of Feb. I wonder if any Perf Ys will be made at the Austin Giga.

I just sold my MY LR Red to a TN dealer for $8000 more than I paid for it. Couldn't resist. Driving a one-owner 2014 Model S which has been fun.

Giga Austin will likely start with MYP but in terms of when even the employee wont' know so many coordination among teams

 

[StatVirus]

I've got an MYLR on order, but plan to switch to the MYP .. at this point it's a waiting game. I don't want to take delivery too early, especially if we're just months away from Austin MYPs. I'm scared to switch to the MYP right now and be forced to take delivery, but also scared about price hikes. Ugh.

 

[Fairchild]

I've got an MYLR on order, but plan to switch to the MYP .. at this point it's a waiting game. I don't want to take delivery too early, especially if we're just months away from Austin MYPs. I'm scared to switch to the MYP right now and be forced to take delivery, but also scared about price hikes. Ugh.

Same here. Note: My Performance (ordered Nov 20) has an estimated delivery in February and LR has an estimated delivery in July. Another member here suspects that Giga Texas will start by producing Model Y Performance. That fits with a February timeframe. It would also be nice to get the benefit of the one-piece casting and it would really put creme on top to get the 4680s. Some have reported seeing the solid frames outside of Giga - Austin. Pipe dream.

How long can you delay without Tesla getting nasty??

 

[goin2drt]

The only problem with the Mach E and every other EV is range anxiety. It is real and until EVERY other EV figures out fast charging while on a road trip, Tesla will always be the king.

Sure you have the group that doesn’t care “because I only drive 40 miles round trip to work” but the majority of people range anxiety is real and if you can’t charge and get back on the road in the time it takes you to go pee, the competition is distance in the rear view mirror.

 

[tangible1]

Same here. Note: My Performance (ordered Nov 20) has an estimated delivery in February and LR has an estimated delivery in July. Another member here suspects that Giga Texas will start by producing Model Y Performance. That fits with a February timeframe. It would also be nice to get the benefit of the one-piece casting and it would really put creme on top to get the 4680s. Some have reported seeing the solid frames outside of Giga - Austin. Pipe dream.

How long can you delay without Tesla getting nasty??

There's no 'one piece casting' and there's no guarantee what Austin will be building. To much speculation, rationalizing your needs alone.
First:
The new MY chassis will utilize TWO castings, one front and one rear. The rear casting has been in the current chassis builds since early 2021
To use the additional front casting, Tesla has TWO PLANS. The primary one is 4680 structural battery packs. The backup plan uses 2160 packs.
NO ONE KNOWS WHICH WILL BE STARTED WITH AT AUSTIN.
Yes, it would make 'sense' to start with the whole new build, but 4680 batteries are NOT in great supply, and are coming from Fremont+Nevada not made in Austin.
Further, there is NO WORD ON BATTERY PACK TESTING. That is in fact the determining factor, not 4680 battery supply - important, yes, but not by itself.
Second:
While Austin has been rumored to be positioned to supply non-Western State orders, there's no formal diktat to that effect.
If Austin builds all MYP only , then they would go to all North / South America. If Austin STARTS with MYP, they'd go....anywhere.

Tesla has never catered to internet meme's and hyperbole. They march to their own drummer and do what makes sense for themselves.
Every 'Media Day', 'Battery Day', 'AI Day', has served a Tesla need.
No one has a handle on the inner workings at Tesla beyond what they spoon feed to the internet blogs for clickbait.

 

[tangible1]

The only problem with the Mach E and every other EV is range anxiety. It is real and until EVERY other EV figures out fast charging while on a road trip, Tesla will always be the king.

Sure you have the group that doesn’t care “because I only drive 40 miles round trip to work” but the majority of people range anxiety is real and if you can’t charge and get back on the road in the time it takes you to go pee, the competition is distance in the rear view mirror.

Range anxiety is real until you get the car.
Then you discover it's not what you imagined.
See Marcus Brownlee's YT video on the 1000 mile drive-off (Audi, Tesla MS, Ford Mach-E)

 

[Ron J.]

There's no 'one piece casting' and there's no guarantee what Austin will be building. To much speculation, rationalizing your needs alone.
First:
The new MY chassis will utilize TWO castings, one front and one rear. The rear casting has been in the current chassis builds since early 2021
To use the additional front casting, Tesla has TWO PLANS. The primary one is 4680 structural battery packs. The backup plan uses 2160 packs.
NO ONE KNOWS WHICH WILL BE STARTED WITH AT AUSTIN.
Yes, it would make 'sense' to start with the whole new build, but 4680 batteries are NOT in great supply, and are coming from Fremont+Nevada not made in Austin.
Further, there is NO WORD ON BATTERY PACK TESTING. That is in fact the determining factor, not 4680 battery supply - important, yes, but not by itself.
Second:
While Austin has been rumored to be positioned to supply non-Western State orders, there's no formal diktat to that effect.
If Austin builds all MYP only , then they would go to all North / South America. If Austin STARTS with MYP, they'd go....anywhere.

Tesla has never catered to internet meme's and hyperbole. They march to their own drummer and do what makes sense for themselves.
Every 'Media Day', 'Battery Day', 'AI Day', has served a Tesla need.
No one has a handle on the inner workings at Tesla beyond what they spoon feed to the internet blogs for clickbait.

There was some word on 4680/structural battery pack testing in October as reported by Teslarati as shown below:

During the Q3 2021 earning call, Drew Baglino—Tesla’s Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Engineering—answered an investor question about 4680 battery cells.

“Early next year, from a non-cell perspective, structural, battery, crash, range, and reliability testing are on track to be complete this quarter. Testing is—to date has gone well, and the Fremont manufacturing line is on track to support,” said Baglino.

 

[goin2drt]

Range anxiety is real until you get the car.
Then you discover it's not what you imagined.
See Marcus Brownlee's YT video on the 1000 mile drive-off (Audi, Tesla MS, Ford Mach-E)

Ok if you say so. I guess we were the only people in America to only choose a Tesla as our first EV because the ability to charge at a supercharger pretty much anywhere in about 30 minutes. Didn’t even consider another EV. Range anxiety I guess only existed with us because YT says so.

 

[tangible1]

There was some word on 4680/structural battery pack testing in October as reported by Teslarati as shown below:

During the Q3 2021 earning call, Drew Baglino—Tesla’s Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Engineering—answered an investor question about 4680 battery cells.

“Early next year, from a non-cell perspective, structural, battery, crash, range, and reliability testing are on track to be complete this quarter. Testing is—to date has gone well, and the Fremont manufacturing line is on track to support,” said Baglino.

A) That's the extent of ANY information on the subject
B) Hardly definitive regarding timelines

Tesla only lets you know what they want to be known, in service of their own needs alone.

Yes, we would all like that the MY chassis will be all new starting with the New Year.
So would Tesla, it's in their best interests.
But there's no way to know what, when, or where as we speak at this time. Speculation is rife. Let your fantasies reign.

 

[Fairchild]

Tesla has never catered to internet meme's and hyperbole. They march to their own drummer and do what makes sense for themselves.

I guess having said that, we could just eliminate this blog and wait for Elon to speak or be rampant with negative speculation. I seem to find and share a lot of valuable information here and many of the tidbits do become reality. I also appreciate what others share. Your negative speculation might be more commensurate with tuning into the evening news, but to each their own.

Of course, the new Model Y will not have a one-piece casting, but the battery tray with metallurgy strong enough to be a supportive structure of the vehicle, it's about as close as we can get to a unibody. And BTW, my 2021 Model Y (just sold) DOES NOT have a rear casting, so don't speculate on that one.

This MYP will be my sixth Tesla and I rather enjoy gathering information from around the world and sharing it. My favorite is still the Model X Blue Raven.
I set the world record for the quickest SUV at PBIR, which I am sure will be eclipsed by the Model X PLAID. The Orlando service center was superb and woke up an engineer in California to get the release code for the Raven upgrade, so I could race in Palm Beach that afternoon. Great people!

Since Shanghai has opened, TESLA has generally introduced new technology there first, with it following soon in the US. The Model Y Performance vehicles being released now from Shanghai can accelerate 0-62 in 3.7 sec, with a top speed of 155 mph and a range of 352 miles. Sounds very 4680ish to me. Hate to speculate though. The Shanghai Model Ys Performance vehicles are also getting the AMD Ryzen Chipset as well as an RDNA2 GPU which kicks in to provide a whopping 10 teraflops of computing power. The overall chip shortage may have done us a favor there, prodding TESLA to branch out to new suppliers.

Three Model 3 Performance vehicles were spotted on the track outside of the Berlin Giga in a variety of colors. See one below.

ALSO, the Shanghai Tesla Model Y Performance is officially launching with the Lithium-Ion 12 volt battery, which should be a significant improvement. A code-reader has also noted references to Air Suspension in the Model Y code sheets. All encouraging.

Per my contact in Austin, a Model Y pulled out of the factory and before it was cleaverly covered, it was noted that it had a little red strip under its' Dual Motor label. Not much speculation about which vehicle is going to be produced first in Austin. There will be an Austin Giga Factory barbecue very early next year and Elon himself has stated that the vehicles produced there will be for locations east of Texas.

Now, it wouldn't make a lot of sense to move backward when opening a new giga factory, so let's hope that these new Model Y Performance enhancements will be included in the Model Y's produced in Austin. All major five sections of the factory passed Texas inspections this week.

The Brandenberg State Office for the Environment states that approvals are complete and the Berlin factory will begin ramping up production in December. Tesla produced five validation vehicles at the Berlin factory and they will reportedly ramp up to 1,000 vehicles a week in January. On an October 10th tour, according to Fred Lambert, Tesla unveiled the new structural battery pack with 4680 cells, so I might take the liberty of speculating that they have been certified. Hmmm. Those 4680s got all the way to Berlin. I don't want to speculate if they can make it to Austin. The 2170s are a reasonable backup.
Who knows? See below.

Never fear, we can hold off on the negative hyperbole, because Elon will provide us an updated product road map at the next earnings call on January 26th (No speculation there).

 

[tangible1]

I guess having said that, we could just eliminate this blog and wait for Elon to speak or be rampant with negative speculation. I seem to find and share a lot of valuable information here and many of the tidbits do become reality. I also appreciate what others share. Your negative speculation might be more commensurate with tuning into the evening news, but to each their own.

Of course, the new Model Y will not have a one-piece casting, but the battery tray with metallurgy strong enough to be a supportive structure of the vehicle, it's about as close as we can get to a unibody. And BTW, my 2021 Model Y (just sold) DOES NOT have a rear casting, so don't speculate on that one.

This MYP will be my sixth Tesla and I rather enjoy gathering information from around the world and sharing it. My favorite is still the Model X Blue Raven.
I set the world record for the quickest SUV at PBIR, which I am sure will be eclipsed by the Model X PLAID. The Orlando service center was superb and woke up an engineer in California to get the release code for the Raven upgrade, so I could race in Palm Beach that afternoon. Great people!

Since Shanghai has opened, TESLA has generally introduced new technology there first, with it following soon in the US. The Model Y Performance vehicles being released now from Shanghai can accelerate 0-62 in 3.7 sec, with a top speed of 155 mph and a range of 352 miles. Sounds very 4680ish to me. Hate to speculate though. The Shanghai Model Ys Performance vehicles are also getting the AMD Ryzen Chipset as well as an RDNA2 GPU which kicks in to provide a whopping 10 teraflops of computing power. The overall chip shortage may have done us a favor there, prodding TESLA to branch out to new suppliers.

Three Model 3 Performance vehicles were spotted on the track outside of the Berlin Giga in a variety of colors. See one below.

ALSO, the Shanghai Tesla Model Y Performance is officially launching with the Lithium-Ion 12 volt battery, which should be a significant improvement. A code-reader has also noted references to Air Suspension in the Model Y code sheets. All encouraging.

Per my contact in Austin, a Model Y pulled out of the factory and before it was cleaverly covered, it was noted that it had a little red strip under its' Dual Motor label. Not much speculation about which vehicle is going to be produced first in Austin. There will be an Austin Giga Factory barbecue very early next year and Elon himself has stated that the vehicles produced there will be for locations east of Texas.

Now, it wouldn't make a lot of sense to move backward when opening a new giga factory, so let's hope that these new Model Y Performance enhancements will be included in the Model Y's produced in Austin. All major five sections of the factory passed Texas inspections this week.

The Brandenberg State Office for the Environment states that approvals are complete and the Berlin factory will begin ramping up production in December. Tesla produced five validation vehicles at the Berlin factory and they will reportedly ramp up to 1,000 vehicles a week in January. On an October 10th tour, according to Fred Lambert, Tesla unveiled the new structural battery pack with 4680 cells, so I might take the liberty of speculating that they have been certified. Hmmm. Those 4680s got all the way to Berlin. I don't want to speculate if they can make it to Austin. The 2170s are a reasonable backup.
Who knows? See below.

Never fear, we can hold off on the negative hyperbole, because Elon will provide us an updated product road map at the next earnings call on January 26th (No speculation there).

TOO MANY BLOGS
Original MY builds DID NOT HAVE the rear magacast. That wasn't instituted until March or April 2021. So you had an early one.
While Tesla Shanghai has had early build upgrades, they utilize China suppliers. No guarantee of North America use. For example, LiOn 15v battery. (yes, 15v).
MIC MYP performance specs you cite are same as US MYP. Not even close to an indicator of '4680 battery use'. Really reaching there.
The range spec is using the Chinese metric, not the US EPA Rating. Geez, that was discounted months ago.
Three MY chassis were shipped to the Austin GigaFactory, and were assembled into cars w/o engines. Then scrapped + one hung for display on 2nd floor.
Berlin was shipped 12 MY chassis back in summer. All those chassis were manufactured at Fremont, and used for equipment calibration at the respective locations.
Your 'contact' in Austin failed to mention there was NO MOTOR NO BATTERY PACK in that chassis (check the pics again - the chassis was riding rather high).
December is over. There's only test builds going on at Berlin. They haven't received approvals and are not likely to until after Euro vacations are over.

Please don't buy into all the clickbait posted in blogs.
It's all gonna happen, but on a timeline dictated by Tesla and not us.
The blogs are there to make money on your clicks, period. Hyperbole, not Accuracy.