Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[afscotch]

You added in a 3rd state, that's your problem. I've never had issues bringing a car into CA and registering it.

Did the DC submit everything to CA for you?

From Tesla's perspective it shouldn't matter how many states are involved. If that the problem, only 2 states are even involved anyway, the one where i pick it up, and the one it's getting registration in. A 3rd state doesn't impact giving me my paperwork or the 30 day dealer temp tag. The temp tag is in the state it's delivered and when I leave the lot all the registration stuff is my responsibility. When they get around to getting ahold of me again, maybe I simply it for them... I'll pick it up in Vegas and register it in FL, then UT has nothing to do with it and I'm not tied it anyway since my DL is from FL.

 

[kelp diver]

He only has discussed Austin. Which is why it lead time me to believe that Fremont would lead and Austin would follow. He also said “what makes sense isn’t always what Tesla does.”

Tesla next quarter earning is out on Jan 26th (less than 2 weeks), so likely Austin production update will be discussed at the earning call. My bet is that Tesla will switch to 4680 cells as soon as sufficient supplies can meet the MY production needs. If 30% production cost saving on 4680 is anywhere close being the case, you can bet Tesla wants to switch as soon as it can. When such cost reduction is confirmed by Tesla, its stock price should also get a big jolt.

 

[afscotch]

My sense of geography is bad...but is Utah east of Austin?

It's west of Austin, but the theory is unpinned by Fremont isn't making 7-seaters in any meaning quantity so the whole production line moves to Austin for country wide distribution.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

You added in a 3rd state, that's your problem. I've never had issues bringing a car into CA and registering it.

Same here... I ordered my Scion TC while I was working in Memphis , my work took me to Lexington . WHen the car came in I took a rental to Memphis then got my car and had my Father in South Florida register the car and mail me plates in Kentucky . I drove the car back to FL when the job was done.

No problems...

 

[samori01]

I am not in logistics or manufacturing, so do not kill me for this question: Shouldn't it take at least 2 quarters if not more of testing on a brand new battery before placing it in customers' hands? I know they have tested the batteries with the Semi for at least a quarter, but how long have they been testing for the MY? I am just skeptical the 4680s are going to be sent to customers anytime soon. I hope I am wrong.

 

[buddhafree]

I am not in logistics or manufacturing, so do not kill me for this question: Shouldn't it take at least 2 quarters if not more of testing on a brand new battery before placing it in customers' hands? I know they have tested the batteries with the Semi for at least a quarter, but how long have they been testing for the MY? I am just skeptical the 4680s are going to be sent to customers anytime soon. I hope I am wrong.

Tesla is not like any other company, they are doing everything their own way. Sometimes their way is a better way and other manufactures follow.
Tesla can move very fast, Faster than any other company I know. The only point of reference I use in regards to Tesla is Tesla. How did they implement similar changes in the past, how quick they started production in China, how newly produced vehicles in China compare to Fremont in regards to assembly quality...

 

[Firocity]

Tesla is not like any other company, they are doing everything their own way. Sometimes their way is a better way and other manufactures follow.
Tesla can move very fast, Faster than any other company I know. The only point of reference I use in regards to Tesla is Tesla. How did they implement similar changes in the past, how quick they started production in China, how newly produced vehicles in China compare to Fremont in regards to assembly quality...

Exactly, they have been operating the production equipment since September when the factory was still under heavy construction. They can walk and chew gum at the same time. They do not need the factory to be 100% complete to start producing cars. Perhaps other manufacturers would wait for a factory to be fully built however, most don't have a 6-9 month wait for their products.

 

[240W]

Yep, remember, not too long ago they made cars under temporary tents at Fremont

 

[Budshark]

Tesla is not like any other company, they are doing everything their own way. Sometimes their way is a better way and other manufactures follow.
Tesla can move very fast, Faster than any other company I know. The only point of reference I use in regards to Tesla is Tesla. How did they implement similar changes in the past, how quick they started production in China, how newly produced vehicles in China compare to Fremont in regards to assembly quality...

And that’s what I keep pointing out. Use Tesla as the model of what Tesla will do.

Shanghai timeline:
In late Oct 2019 Tesla announced it had begun full trial production from stamping to GA to paint of Model 3s. Musk shared pictures of operating assembly lines with multiple cars.

In late Dec 2019 they gave their first cars to employees to drive in public.

In early January 2020 was the first public delivery.

Austin is not even at the Oct 2019 level yet. I expect end of January (26th is likely) Tesla to make a similar “full test production has started” with a by end of Q1 delivery target.

No where near any of these rumors of vloggers or bloggers.

 

[CyberGus]

Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily likes to track production figures. For instance, once Shanghai started shipping cars, they ramped up pretty quickly:

Quarter	Production	__________________________________________
Q4-2019	850
Q1-2020	16,681
Q2-2020	33,105
Q3-2020	37,499

 

[kelp diver]

Tesla is not like any other company, they are doing everything their own way. Sometimes their way is a better way and other manufactures follow.
Tesla can move very fast, Faster than any other company I know. The only point of reference I use in regards to Tesla is Tesla. How did they implement similar changes in the past, how quick they started production in China, how newly produced vehicles in China compare to Fremont in regards to assembly quality...

You could say the way Tesla manufacturers cars is more like making computers, totally different than traditional automakers. Updating Testla sw is just as common and natural as updating iOS on your iPhone.

 

[tangible1]

If that much. I've been looking for a MYP, but am holding out for a made-in TX one. Along these lines I am following closely sites that alert you when a car pops up into inventory. On average, those cars are on the site 1h or less before being snatched up.

Don't hold out for Austin unless you're good with next year.
First, you're in Fremont factory delivery territory.
Second, as properly stated elsewhere in this thread, Austin and Fremont will transition to the new chassis build almost at the same time.
There's no way Tesla will build different MY chassis at different factories, the logistics and customer uproar would mean death to profit.

The only possible quality difference between the two factories might (might) be paint quality. That's it. New paint shop in Austin will be better than Fremont's.
They are using the same robots, processes, steel, aluminum, and glass suppliers, etc at both factories.
There's little hand-work that goes into building these cars that makes much quality difference.

 

[tangible1]

It's west of Austin, but the theory is unpinned by Fremont isn't making 7-seaters in any meaning quantity so the whole production line moves to Austin for country wide distribution.

Tesla makes vehicles in batches - paint color batches, 7 seat batches, are two that they have exhibited in the past.
When they make them, they make them. They're not telling anyone outside Tesla when that might be.
Their logistics are their own.

 

[tangible1]

I’m screaming from the rooftop that the vloggers and bloggers are too optimistic and trying to get clicks.

But I also acknowledge it’s based off my outside manufacturing knowledge and guesses based on pictures and what I consider normal ramp up.

If you come on here and say you have insider knowledge but then say I can’t / won’t tell you and you are all just wrong trust me… that won’t end welll. Either keep the “inside knowledge” stuff to yourself and either don’t post or just say my opinion, or you need to back up the “inside source” with something tangible.

Just my observation. You do you.

Wishful and magical thinking lives large on TMC and similar spaces.
Clickbait fishermen are the driving forces behind all the blogs and vlogs.

Only Tesla knows what they're doing, and they are VERY tight with information. Nothing gets out that they don't WANT out.
They smartly leverage the blogs to their own ends, better than I've seen by most any other company.
Elon recognized early the waste of money a PR and Marketing Department would be when blogs would gobble up anything he offered for free.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I don't see Austin producing anything other then the new chassis , there is no reason to make them retool their processes twice.

I think the current build with 2170's is supperior to the new chassis build . The only advantage to the new build is weight loss and the 4680 .

Insurance is going to be totaling these new cars left and right with these front & rear castings being directly connected to the battery when they are in an accident.
and the interior seats being bolted directly to the batterypack is another area where consumers are going to end up paying more in labor if they ever need to replace the batteries. There are also unknowns about road noise with the new floor .

At this point I'd take an austin car if it had the 4680's but i don't want one with 2170's. At least not until we get some people with hands on.

 

[tangible1]

Interesting...why do you think that? All indications, including Elon Musk saying it ("Lot of new technology will happen in Berlin, which means significant production risk. Fremont & Shanghai will transition in ~2 years when new tech is proven."), is that Fremont won't change over to the structural 4680s until Austin is ramped, including the Austin 4680 lines. This could easily be over a year before Fremont changes over. I at least wouldn't expect it anytime soon.

So where are the 4680 batteries for Berlin coming from?
The battery fab facility in Berlin is still being built. China doesn't make 4680 batteries yet either.
Is Tesla going to ship in battery packs from Nevada?

Your premise is all wrong. Berlin isn't going to lead anything. That's Elon hype. Especially now that Berlin startup is being held hostage.
Tesla will transition to the MY new chassis build closest to where 4680 batteries are available.
Kato Rd is the only facility doing so at this time, and GigaNevada makes the packs.

Let's also not forget that Tesla is doing SEMI prototype production at Nevada.
And that vehicle needs 4680's in quantity.

 

[bkp_duke]

I don't see Austin producing anything other then the new chassis , there is no reason to make them retool their processes twice.

I think the current build with 2170's is supperior to the new chassis build . The only advantage to the new build is weight loss and the 4680 .

Insurance is going to be totaling these new cars left and right with these front & rear castings being directly connected to the battery when they are in an accident.
and the interior seats being bolted directly to the batterypack is another area where consumers are going to end up paying more in labor if they ever need to replace the batteries. There are also unknowns about road noise with the new floor .

At this point I'd take an austin car if it had the 4680's but i don't want one with 2170's. At least not until we get some people with hands on.

You have no idea what you are talking about.

1) the new chassis is more rigid than the old. It will do even better than than the current Y scored, which was already 5-stars in every category.
2) the casts literally are designed so that parts of them can be cut off by a body shop if involved in a non-totaling car crash, and new fractional pieces welded back on for repairs. They have crumple zones on them and designed-cut points. The energy is NOT transferred to the pack in a collision, unless it is a huge collision. Any large collisions more than this, and it would total the car (old or new design). Sandy Munro already covered this in his videos when he tore down a now older 2-part cast Model Y, showing how it was designed to be repaired in a "sub-total" collision.
3) the 4680s are designed to be longer-life than the 2170s ever were. If you are talking replacing a battery pack, then we are at 250k miles or more in regards to the 4680-based packs. At that point, the typical Tesla buyer will want to just trade the car in and get the latest tech. Hell, I've had two 2013 Model S's with 18650 cells that compose their packs, and they've only seen about 14% degradation over 9 years with 100k+ miles. The 2170s have better degradation profiles than the 18650s, and the 4680s improve upon that.

 

[bkp_duke]

So where are the 4680 batteries for Berlin coming from?
The battery fab facility in Berlin is still being built. China doesn't make 4680 batteries yet either.
Is Tesla going to ship in battery packs from Nevada?

Your premise is all wrong. Berlin isn't going to lead anything. That's Elon hype. Especially now that Berlin startup is being held hostage.
Tesla will transition to the MY new chassis build closest to where 4680 batteries are available.
Kato Rd is the only facility doing so at this time, and GigaNevada makes the packs.

Let's also not forget that Tesla is doing SEMI prototype production at Nevada.
And that vehicle needs 4680's in quantity.

4680s are built in Kato Rd, in Fremont. Not gigafactory Nevada. That is where cells will be shipped from to Berlin until the Berlin battery facility is functional. Again, Elon has publicly stated as much in quarterly earnings calls, etc. etc.

Kato Rd is not a small facility, by this year it's production is supposed to be nearly 1/3 of that of all of Gigafactory Nevada. That's one of the HUGE selling points of the 4680 batteries with the dry electrode, the footprint for a battery line is a fraction of what the old 2170 "wet" battery line is.

I highly encourage everyone spouting stuff that they only have a cursory knowledge of to go read and study every detail of the Battery Day slides. They are chocked full of all kinds of wonderful nuggets of info.

 

[afscotch]

Same here... I ordered my Scion TC while I was working in Memphis , my work took me to Lexington . WHen the car came in I took a rental to Memphis then got my car and had my Father in South Florida register the car and mail me plates in Kentucky . I drove the car back to FL when the job was done.

No problems...

I've bought 3 cars in 3 states over the last 10 years, all of which I registered in FL after driving off the lot with a dealer temp tag. Each time was easy and straight forward with no issues/problems, just like you. Tesla (or maybe the SA specifically) seems to making needlessly difficult, hence trying to find someone that's gone through getting the car and registering it in different states with Tesla.

 

[tangible1]

4680s are built in Kato Rd, in Fremont. Not gigafactory Nevada. That is where cells will be shipped from to Berlin until the Berlin battery facility is functional. Again, Elon has publicly stated as much in quarterly earnings calls, etc. etc.

Kato Rd is not a small facility, by this year it's production is supposed to be nearly 1/3 of that of all of Gigafactory Nevada. That's one of the HUGE selling points of the 4680 batteries with the dry electrode, the footprint for a battery line is a fraction of what the old 2170 "wet" battery line is.

I highly encourage everyone spouting stuff that they only have a cursory knowledge of to go read and study every detail of the Battery Day slides. They are chocked full of all kinds of wonderful nuggets of info.

I highly recommend you read my post again.
Batteries are made at Kato Road. Battery PACKS are made at Giga Nevada.
In addition, their Lathrop CA facility is used to integrate battery packs into new chassis, in addition to Fremont.

Guess where my MY (ordered in June) is being transported from as we speak? LATHROP.

Yeah, oops.
Battery Day was an outline, subject as are all things Tesla, to change. It's not gospel.
Adherence to the gospel of blogs is not a virtue.