Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Ron J.]

Sigh.

Let’s ask ourselves a few questions.

Has Tesla ever shipped a new model to Service Centers ahead of release?

What would a Model Y 2.0 at service centers even be for? Here’s a new model you can’t have and if you order we won’t promise you can get?

What is Tesla showing with these demos as they’ve been fairly transparent the new Model Y 2.0 is more about them than anything buyers would see.

What is the source of these demos? SAs? Have they proven reliable in the past?

On the other hand:

Is it likely if this picture appears, these are being sent for testing and road validation? Which would be a logical step prior to any public releases?

Just encouraging some counter thought here. Because maybe the insider is just a guy who sees things but doesn’t have the full context. And then assumptions are made. And maybe the article yesterday was a planted leak to quiet down the wild assumptions. And maybe Jan 26 we will hear an update, but it won’t be “Rush out to your local Service Center to see the new model y we secretly shipped overnight! But not you on the west coast. You don’t get this yet.”

But what do I know.

It is the Tesla sales centers that will be getting the new demo MYs. My local Tesla manager said, a week ago, they expected a new MY demo unit coming from Austin on or around Jan. 24th. However, as of a week ago they had not yet received any specifics on the vehicle. I could see that Tesla would want a MY 2.0 in the showrooms and for demos if that is more or less what the customer would get if they placed a new order today going forward. You also seem to assume that Fremont is not making the transition to producing ver. 2.0 MYs, and that may not be a correct assumption. We all should learn a lot more about Tesla's plans thiis coming week. So stay tuned.

 

[TJ21CT]

Please post the twitter link once your friend has it up.

He’s not posting it. He cannot post pictures due to his position. In due time I believe is what he meant.

 

[omglol]

Unless there is an original floating around, I cannot make out 2021 Tesla. And if Dec 16 is the registration date, it should be a 2022, they switched over in November. If that date is the expiration date then it should have real plates.

There is a better picture around that shows the 2021 Tesla. Also, Dec 16th would be the expiration of that 30 day permit. You can do 3 per vehicle, so that could be decently old.

 

[Cyberspeed]

He’s not posting it. He cannot post pictures due to his position. In due time I believe is what he meant.

fake news till proof appears....

 

[Budshark]

It is the Tesla sales centers that will be getting the new demo MYs. My local Tesla manager said, a week ago, they expected a new MY demo unit coming from Austin on or around Jan. 24th. However, as of a week ago they had not yet received any specifics on the vehicle. I could see that Tesla would want a MY 2.0 in the showrooms and for demos if that is more or less what the customer would get if they placed a new order today going forward. You also seem to assume that Fremont is not making the transition to producing ver. 2.0 MYs, and that may not be a correct assumption. We all should learn a lot more about Tesla's plans thiis coming week. So stay tuned.

Ok. Let me know how that demo works out. What I’m saying is they aren’t shipping them. The SAs are wrong.

 

[damonbrodie]

it was my understanding that the Kato plant would be supplying Texas with batteries until they were up to full production.....Ys from there would have to have 2170s imported for Y production and that wont happen....battery set-up in Texas in farther along than you think....why would;d Texas make the truck with 4680s and not put them in the Y

It would be a disaster for Tesla to make Y's in Fremont with 2170s and with 4680s in Austin. People would be scheming to get Austin Y's and there would be a lot of anger for those that don't get one. I agree with the assessment that 4680s are not imminent for the Y.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Ok. Let me know how that demo works out. What I’m saying is they aren’t shipping them. The SAs are wrong.

There are two ways to see this.

1) they are shipping demo cars to all Tesla centers. Any car ordered from that time will be the car they receive ( 6 months later) Fremont will convert when Austin can take some of the load off them.

2) they are only shipping demo cars to the Tesla centers which will actually get cars from austin during its slow rampup.


I think it makes sense they they are producing cars now and it takes a few months to get all the centers an austin built modelwhich is why they are saying the end of the quarter for delivery.

 

[r1200gs4ok]

Eventually they will. But they will be constrained for a while. And the cybertruck and semi have to use the 4680 packs. Model y doesn’t.

So, temper your expectation. It will be a long while before they hit model y.

I saw on Wednesday a body of a Y that had no floor, indicating a 4680 battery pack installation...Made at Giga Texas.....if they are making that body there, I think it is safe to think batteries will be 4680....they are no going to make 2 different body style at Texas

 

[Budshark]

There are two ways to see this.

1) they are shipping demo cars to all Tesla centers. Any car ordered from that time will be the car they receive ( 6 months later) Fremont will convert when Austin can take some of the load off them.

2) they are only shipping demo cars to the Tesla centers which will actually get cars from austin during its slow rampup.


I think it makes sense they they are producing cars now and it takes a few months to get all the centers an austin built modelwhich is why they are saying the end of the quarter for delivery.

Or you know. A third way… this idea of Austin demos being shipped out this week is… wrong?

Austin is making cars now. For validation, road testing and QCs. They are not making cars to ship around the country and show people who are picking up for the next 2-3 months what they aren’t getting. It doesn’t logically make any sense. Why? Because they need to drive sales? They have a 6+ month backlog. Showing this updated model to all those backlog buyers isn’t going to exactly be received as a positive. “oh look what I’m missing out on! Yeah!”

 

[TJ21CT]

fake news till proof appears....

When it does then my comment will be justified I guess.

 

[Budshark]

When it does then my comment will be justified I guess.

To be fair, I don’t want anyone to think I don’t believe you.

I believe you have a buddy working in Austin that saw Model Ys loaded on a closed carrier today and snapped a quick photo. I just don’t agree with the assumption those particular Model Ys are going anywhere for the public (sales centers, customers, etc)

 

[hold]

Wonder if they shipped so during earnings call they say they started production and shipping MY made in Texas. Will ramp up throughout the year

 

[Budshark]

Wonder if they shipped so during earnings call they say they started production and shipping MY made in Texas. Will ramp up throughout the year

Historically they wouldn’t do that in secret. They hold “first release” events. Accomplishes the same objective but in a much more public way.

They want all the press and goodwill they can get once Austin starts making saleable vehicles. They won’t be secretive about it. They never have been.

 

[thecavalry]

I saw on Wednesday a body of a Y that had no floor, indicating a 4680 battery pack installation...Made at Giga Texas.....if they are making that body there, I think it is safe to think batteries will be 4680....they are no going to make 2 different body style at Texas

They aren’t going to segment the production of the y, with two different battery packs.

It just isn’t going to happen for a long while.

 

[Cyberspeed]

When it does then my comment will be justified I guess.

fair enough - I've been wrong before, and I could be wrong again.

I hope this is accurate as I have a MYP due in 2-6 weeks per EDD of Tesla. Would like the "newest" just like everyone else on here. That said I'll take the one Tesla sends, drive it and enjoy it. 1-2 years upgrade and keep enjoying. There is/will always be something newer.

 

[advocate8]

Unless there is an original floating around, I cannot make out 2021 Tesla. And if Dec 16 is the registration date, it should be a 2022, they switched over in November. If that date is the expiration date then it should have real plates.

There is a blowup out there. It’s not worth me digging up, just like it’s not big enough thing for someone to fib about. That’s what it says, believe it or don’t.

 

[r1200gs4ok]

They aren’t going to segment the production of the y, with two different battery packs.

It just isn’t going to happen for a long while.

well, I think you are wrong.....there not making the 2170 batteries in Texas....and the are not going to supply chain them there......if you watch the build of the Texas plant you would see what happening.....one body, one battery.....they are already making and testing batteries in Texas.....the giga presses are making car bodies.....you correct about one thing: they are not going to make 2 body type cars

 

[Mrbrock]

Random thought, January 26th is Chinese New Year. What are the chances the biggest anouncement from Elon on the 26th relates to China? Punk'd!

 

[Ron J.]

Or you know. A third way… this idea of Austin demos being shipped out this week is… wrong?

Austin is making cars now. For validation, road testing and QCs. They are not making cars to ship around the country and show people who are picking up for the next 2-3 months what they aren’t getting. It doesn’t logically make any sense. Why? Because they need to drive sales? They have a 6+ month backlog. Showing this updated model to all those backlog buyers isn’t going to exactly be received as a positive. “oh look what I’m missing out on! Yeah!”

Testing with the structural battery pack with 4680 cells in the updated updated MY layout has been going on for the past several months using pre-production MYs. At the Q3 2021 earning call, in October 2021, the following was said (directly copied from a transcript of the earnings call):
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Martin Viecha

Thank you very much. And we will now take questions from institutional and retail shareholders that we posted on our website. The first question is, when should we expect the first vehicles to be delivered with 4680 cells?

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President

Yeah. Thanks, Martin. Early next year, from a non-cell perspective, structural, battery, crash, range, and reliability testing are on track to be complete this quarter. Testing is -- to date has gone well, and the Fremont manufacturing line is on track to support.

However, similar to what Zach said before, this is a new architecture and unknown unknowns may exist still. Our top priority is ensuring quality in what we deliver. And from a cell perspective, we are comfortable with the design maturity and manufacturing readiness, matching the pack timeline I just mentioned.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

You can find the full transcript at the following link:

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

TSLA earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2021.

www.fool.com

 

[Mrbrock]

There is a better picture around that shows the 2021 Tesla. Also, Dec 16th would be the expiration of that 30 day permit. You can do 3 per vehicle, so that could be decently old.

Ok. In CA it is a 60 day permit and the date is the date of expiration. Also has VIN.