Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[ZenRockGarden]

The assumption all along has been that CyberTruck and Semi are purely 4680, and built at the Austin plant.

So those do impact/compete with Model Y 4680 output there

 

[Mrbrock]

Which is why Tesla will likely avoid LR Y 4680 production at Austin until two things happen.

1) They have enough 4680 supply for CT and Semi
2) Fremont switches to 4680 LR Y

Therefore, point #1 becomes Tesla needs enough 4680 cells for CT, Semi and all LR MY production at Austin and Fremont. The likelihood of this happening within the next 2 years is 0. Conservatively you are talking about 400,000 MY a year when both factories are online. That’s 340 million 4680 cells or 1 million per day. Just for MY.

rather OT for this thread, I don't recall if they made mention of Cybertruck having structural pack or not? I don't think so, but so much has changed.
I'm guessing the new found volume from Austin is mostly Y-LR with 2170's, which I'm happy with. The more practice they get making those before they make mine, the better

Don’t think you’ll be able to push your order for 2 years if you are waiting for 4680 LR. I am also guessing the 4680 MY AWD will go the way of the 2170 SR MY. They will or already have stopped production and switched to 100% 2170 MY at Austin and have started stockpiling 4680 for CT.

 

[kabin]

rather OT for this thread, I don't recall if they made mention of Cybertruck having structural pack or not? I don't think so, but so much has changed.
I'm guessing the new found volume from Austin is mostly Y-LR with 2170's, which I'm happy with. The more practice they get making those before they make mine, the better

I wouldn't underestimate Tesla's ability to further delay 4680 production ramp-up.

It would make sense to use the hefty 4680's structural strength in the CT otherwise it's a lot of added weight for little gain. Tesla should've optimized 4680 metal thickness etc for structural benefits whether used in commuter car, CT, or semi.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I wouldn't underestimate Tesla's ability to further delay 4680 production ramp-up.

It would make sense to use the hefty 4680's structural strength in the CT otherwise it's a lot of added weight for little gain. Tesla should've optimized 4680 metal thickness etc for structural benefits whether used in commuter car, CT, or semi.

The thing to note here is that Tesla has not opened up the MY AWD 4680 for order . You order a MYLR and then they may give you an opportunity to get an AWD earlier (While supplies last) . My guess is that the current AWD is an temp solution to use the current 4680 battery production as it is. The batteries may not be ready for the CT or the Semi but they are fine for the AWD so they can tweak the batteries and sell the interim yeilds instead of scrapping them. I assume that they do not wany any backorder for any other vehicles utilizating the 4680's since all production will be dedicated to CT and Semi. At some point ( maybe when there is enough 4680 production for the YLR & YP ) these AWD+ vehicle may just dissapear.

 

[Twiglett]

Don’t think you’ll be able to push your order for 2 years if you are waiting for 4680 LR. I am also guessing the 4680 MY AWD will go the way of the 2170 SR MY. They will or already have stopped production and switched to 100% 2170 MY at Austin and have started stockpiling 4680 for CT.

I'm not thinking about a 4860LR, I was thinking more along the lines of Austin getting good at making the regular 2170LR
Has anyone seen any confirmation of differences between Fremont and Austin 2170LR's ??

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I'm not thinking about a 4860LR, I was thinking more along the lines of Austin getting good at making the regular 2170LR
Has anyone seen any confirmation of differences between Fremont and Austin 2170LR's ??

The only differences I've heard so far are rear trunk covers and the magnetic arm rests.

 

[Twiglett]

The only differences I've heard so far are rear trunk covers and the magnetic arm rests.

so, no front castings then? Oh well.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

so, no front castings then? Oh well.

They may be using them, I have not heard anything definitive. I thought you were looking for differences you could see.

 

[DarkRelms]

Panasonic is building a factory in ks now to help with the production of thr 4680

 

[Twiglett]

Panasonic is building a factory in ks now to help with the production of thr 4680

very true - although that is at least a year from making anything, maybe two.

 

[Mrbrock]

I'm not thinking about a 4860LR, I was thinking more along the lines of Austin getting good at making the regular 2170LR
Has anyone seen any confirmation of differences between Fremont and Austin 2170LR's ??

I have reached out to a couple of the members here who posted about getting LR MY from Austin EOQ2 about checking for front castings. You can see pictures here that show where the part sticker is inside one of the front wheel wells.

Giga Texas-made Tesla Model Y Standard Range spotted with better build quality, Giga Castings, and 4680 cells - Tesla Oracle

A Giga Texas-made Tesla Model Y Standard AWD is spotted at a Supercharger in Cedar Park, Texas and the owner takes pics from every angle.

www.teslaoracle.com

 

[BMWY]

It wouldn't shock me one bit if we never see 4680 in the current gen LR or P. As others have said, the amount of cells needed is ridiculously staggering and production on THOSE alone will take a few years.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

It wouldn't shock me one bit if we never see 4680 in the current gen LR or P. As others have said, the amount of cells needed is ridiculously staggering and production on THOSE alone will take a few years.

Oh, it should totally happen long term - because of the high volume, the MYLR is where all the cost savings is for Tesla once it gets the 4680 design fully streamlined and optimized.

 

[KJD]

It wouldn't shock me one bit if we never see 4680 in the current gen LR or P. As others have said, the amount of cells needed is ridiculously staggering and production on THOSE alone will take a few years.

Tesla will slowly figure out how to build the 4680 cells in high volume. They have invested too much in this process not to make it work.

Worst case is Tesla keeps fumbling along and Panasonic figures it out for them. Either way all good.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

If it was anything else (i.e. the mythical software unlockable full 4680 pack), Tesla would likely be asking them to keep that quiet.

Munroe being quiet for the past week is making me entertain strange ideas.... Foam be damned

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Munroe being quiet for the past week is making me entertain strange ideas.... Foam be damned

Munroe should post a single pic of the entire team covered head to foot in pink foam dust and the quote "We're working on it!"

 

[Destiny1701]

What’s funny is I took delivery of my MYP a month ago with 2170. From Fremont and since then I havnt looked back at any threads on 4680 vs 2170 lol. Prior to delivery, inwas just as involved and full of questions.

Honestly guys…just pick up the damn car and drive it lol! It’s awesome even as it is. What sort of battery or motors is irrelevant day to day.
It’s like wondering if you got the latest V6 engine with 298hp vs the outgoing 288. Or the gas mileage is now 32mpg vs 30. Lol
Just get in and drive it!

I wasted countless hours and days on this topic only to realize how much it made zero diff!

 

[Twiglett]

What’s funny is I took delivery of my MYP a month ago with 2170. From Fremont and since then I havnt looked back at any threads on 4680 vs 2170 lol. Prior to delivery, inwas just as involved and full of questions.

Honestly guys…just pick up the damn car and drive it lol! It’s awesome even as it is. What sort of battery or motors is irrelevant day to day.
It’s like wondering if you got the latest V6 engine with 298hp vs the outgoing 288. Or the gas mileage is now 32mpg vs 30. Lol
Just get in and drive it!

I wasted countless hours and days on this topic only to realize how much it made zero diff!

I got that mastered - stood in line and paid for a car I hadn't seen, the order time came and got to choose color and wheels.
This time, I'm holding out for the seats and options I want, delivery date be damned

 

[YNoVA]

What’s funny is I took delivery of my MYP a month ago with 2170. From Fremont and since then I havnt looked back at any threads on 4680 vs 2170 lol. Prior to delivery, inwas just as involved and full of questions.

Honestly guys…just pick up the damn car and drive it lol! It’s awesome even as it is. What sort of battery or motors is irrelevant day to day.
It’s like wondering if you got the latest V6 engine with 298hp vs the outgoing 288. Or the gas mileage is now 32mpg vs 30. Lol
Just get in and drive it!

I wasted countless hours and days on this topic only to realize how much it made zero diff!

4680 is a benefit to Tesla and not the consumer. The 2170 as been tried and tested.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I'm holding out for the new MY Matrix... Where your the battery....