Model Y price cut may come when demand is satiated?

[Terminator857]

Elon said so, Oct 7, 2021 at yearly investor conference. My estimate is end of this year when Austin is producing 5K vehicles per week.

50 minutes into the video.
Quote: We do hope to reduce the prices and make them more affordable over time.

 

[mrwug]

Given 2021's inflation figures, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the "price cuts" involved letting the market catch up to current pricing. Get ready for everything to get more expensive in the coming years.

 

[Terminator857]

Mine and others EDD have been moved up substantially, so demand might be satiated sooner than expected.

7 seat waiting room

Well just woke up an EDD change back to Feb 9 - Mar 9. :/ I guess it was inevitable @Luly 😔 sorry to hear yours got bumped too! 😩 Hang in there! The start of your new edd isn’t too far! 🤞 I think my edd window looks like they’re leaving me for the eoq rush 😭

teslamotorsclub.com

Ordered last month and my EDD is for end of March.

 

[StatVirus]

Elon said so, Oct 7, 2021 at yearly investor conference. My estimate is end of this year when Austin is producing 5K vehicles per week.

50 minutes into the video.
Quote: We do hope to reduce the prices and make them more affordable over time.

Your link doesn’t work for me, but was he referring specially to the Model Y? If not, my expectation is that they’ll offer an inexpensive model at some point - like a “Model 2”, as a way of making them more affordable. I’d be shocked to see a meaningful price cut on the Model Y, at least in the short-term.

 

[Terminator857]

Your link doesn’t work for me,

Disappointing it doesn't work for you. What happens when you click on the link? Go to youtube and search for: "Test, Inc 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders". Click on the video by Tesla. Advance to the 50 minute mark.

... but was he referring specially to the Model Y? ...

No, but he was referring to existing vehicles. He said we've increases prices temporarily but do hope to reduce them over time.

 

[DanDi58]

Don’t hold your breath.

 

[tomagucci]

That assumes Elon is able to predict demand, which I doubt is the case.

 

[Terminator857]

That assumes Elon is able to predict demand, which I doubt is the case.

Elon knows production is going to more than double with Giga Austin and previously planned Fremont upgrades. Elon said he hopes that Fremont grows output by 50%:

54:20 into the video.

 

[C-Bus Y]

Wouldn’t hold my breath. I’d bet money any decrease in price would be a model with less features. Otherwise price only goes one way.

 

[Terminator857]

... price only goes one way.

Tesla has a history of price cuts. See what happened when Tesla Model 3 production went up and demand was satiated.

 

[jsight]

I get the feeling demand jumped even faster than they expected and they took the price increases to capitalize as much as possible. With so much new production capacity coming online, it seems like they should drop 5-10%. Maybe some lower price trims will finally come too.

 

[Daekwan]

I get the feeling demand jumped even faster than they expected and they took the price increases to capitalize as much as possible. With so much new production capacity coming online, it seems like they should drop 5-10%. Maybe some lower price trims will finally come too.

I've also said this for quite a while. I believe it was a combination of factors to include demand, Congress voting on new tax credits, big jumps in gas prices, and of course chip/component shortages. If Tesla's $1Trillion valuation is to believe it's based on them producing millions and millions of vehicles every year. Upwards of 10 million per year. My guess is Austin & Berlin online this year... Tesla produces 2-3 million vehicles. By next year 5 million. There is simply no way the current pricing increases will hold with that many vehicles flying out of factories.

If I had to wager on it, once the backlog is back down to around one month expect to see the same decreases the same way we saw increases. Which is a $1000 cut here and there. I also expect by 2023 for the RWD Model Y to come back on the menu.. with an LFP battery.. 250 miles of range and a $45K price tag.

Production Pace Is Insanely Fast For Model 3, Model Y At Giga Shanghai

The Tesla Giga Shanghai plant in China currently is the biggest electric car plant in the world, considering the production volume.

insideevs.com

Tesla To Double Production in 2022 As Giga-Shanghai Sets Manufacturing Records

In a few weeks Tesla will begin volume production at its two new factories, Giga-Berlin and Giga-Texas, and once they reach a stable production level they expect world overall production to reach 2 million Battery Electric Vehicles per year.

www.torquenews.com

If any of these articles are even remotely true. Model Y's are about to be more popular than Honda Accords. And for a vehicle that was priced at just $48,990 ten months ago.. there is no way the current price increases are going to stick with that much supply.

 

[orion2001]

Yup, I definitely see prices dropping a fair bit over the next 2 years. Between a lot more supply with Giga Austin up and running and Fremont upgrading, and more competition from other manufacturers, price drops are inevitable. Frankly, the current MYLR prices feel a bit absurd to me and I wouldn't be waiting to pick one up if I hadn't locked in my price in April, 2021 at $8K lower than current MSRP. That being said, I'm happy to see such high demand for EVs from consumers and across other manufacturers as well. The future looks great and I'm really excited to see what the next 5 years hold in store once other manufacturers are also competing in the space.

 

[tomagucci]

Elon knows production is going to more than double with Giga Austin and previously planned Fremont upgrades. Elon said he hopes that Fremont grows output by 50%:

54:20 into the video.

"hopes" lol

but yeah, what if demand doubles when giga austin opens? prices won't be dropping

 

[Midnightsun]

Most other EVs are sold out until 2023 and then some and many of these have not even started production.

Tesla biggest asset right now is quickest delivery of any EV manufacturer. As Tesla plants start to open up with one piece front and rear castings they will be impossible to beat for quite some time. People today are paying new car prices for 1 year + used vehicles, simply for the privilege of immediate delivery. As long as Tesla sells its production capacity there is no reason for them to lower prices IMHO. The eventual addition of a $25,000 cheaper version will put them into mega production as the masses join the Tesla revolution and keep those plants busier than ever.

 

[charles_cad]

Supply is key. People are buying EVs with 18 months delay. They will pay the Tesla "tax" vs other cars that will take them much more time to get.

I see them getting into 1-2 months delay in 2022 which is very reasonable.

 

[andaconda]

When was the last time you went to the grocery store and saw prices drop. A tub of margarine a couple decades ago cost ~55 cents, but is now ~ 3 dollars. Once people start buying a product do you think the producer wants to give up that profit? Raise all the stink you want, that won't make the prices come down. Tesla, ya, the prices will fall, ya right!

 

[Corndart]

When was the last time you went to the grocery store and saw prices drop. A tub of margarine a couple decades ago cost ~55 cents, but is now ~ 3 dollars. Once people start buying a product do you think the producer wants to give up that profit? Raise all the stink you want, that won't make the prices come down. Tesla, ya, the prices will fall, ya right!

Achually... Adjusted for inflation, the price of margarine has gone consistently down for nearly 4 decades. In terms of actual price (non-inflation adjusted), it's been consistently dropping since 2013.

Margarine price inflation, 1939→2024

This calculator uses the official Consumer Price Index for Margarine from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Margarine costing $1.73 in 1939 would cost $37.94 in 2024.

www.in2013dollars.com

 

[Daekwan]

When was the last time you went to the grocery store and saw prices drop. A tub of margarine a couple decades ago cost ~55 cents, but is now ~ 3 dollars. Once people start buying a product do you think the producer wants to give up that profit? Raise all the stink you want, that won't make the prices come down. Tesla, ya, the prices will fall, ya right!

I don't have to use grocery examples. Because I've seen the prices of practically every vehicle Tesla has offered drop several times. In fact, the entire reason why I own a Tesla is that the price of the Y kept dropping.. and dropping.. and dropping until it was finally within reach last year. It just hit its lowest point just 10 months ago.

I certainly understand inflation is a real concern and the price of things does go up over time. Just like I understand a $10,000 price hike over the course of 10 months has nothing to do with actual inflation costs. It's because Tesla had way more demand than what they could possibly supply. And that when supply = demands.. price adjustments will again occur just like have done on practically every model Tesla has produced.

 

[andaconda]

Achually... Adjusted for inflation, the price of margarine has gone consistently down for nearly 4 decades. In terms of actual price (non-inflation adjusted), it's been consistently dropping since 2013.

Tell that to those who are on fixed incomes.