Model Y UK Delivery

[QuanTim]

It seems from other posts on the Shipping thread that there are usually about 4000 ish cars on each ship. Do we have any idea of monthly order volumes in UK for MY? I've seen a few early March orders start to get assigned VINs. I'm a late April order. Do we have any idea at all how many UK MY orders there were in March/April? I have absolutely no idea. It could be 100, 1000, 10000 or 1000000 and I wouldn't be surprised. It's just if we're expecting one or two ships carrying about 4000-8000 cars (I'm guessing majority MY), and someone could tell me that there are x outstanding March/April orders, it would put some perspective on how likely it is I might get one of these....

Yeah completely, and I don't think anyone one here knows. Anything suggested will be conjecture.

I know MrM has once said that, pre-Shanghai lockdown, Tesla managed to get 7 or 8 ships to the UK within a quarter. I think that was Q1 or possibly Q4 21. There was expectation that they would ramp up the shipping volume again but the Tesla Factory shutdown (not to be confused with the lockdown) may have put a dent in the numbers (though we'll soon see the fruits since they are not producing many more cars per day after that). So it could be next quarter that we start to see the same 7-8 ship cadence (or more?) per quarter again. Soon Germany will start supplying but imagine there will be a period where both Berlin (for the MYPs) and Shanghai (for the MYLRs & M3 of all kinds) will supply concurrently. Ultimately, Germany will likely supply both so imagine there may be a more steady line of cars. I picture them doing something like 3 weeks of LHD production & 1 week RHD production per month (or something like that... pure conjecture at this point).

 

[Spacerat]

6,464 registered in March this year in the UK, but suspect that number will have ramped up dramatically given the fuel prices!

Source

 

[adambg]

Yeah completely, and I don't think anyone one here knows. Anything suggested will be conjecture.

I know MrM has once said that, pre-Shanghai lockdown, Tesla managed to get 7 or 8 ships to the UK within a quarter. I think that was Q1 or possibly Q4 21. There was expectation that they would ramp up the shipping volume again but the Tesla Factory shutdown (not to be confused with the lockdown) may have put a dent in the numbers (though we'll soon see the fruits since they are not producing many more cars per day after that). So it could be next quarter that we start to see the same 7-8 ship cadence (or more?) per quarter again. Soon Germany will start supplying but imagine there will be a period where both Berlin (for the MYPs) and Shanghai (for the MYLRs & M3 of all kinds) will supply concurrently. Ultimately, Germany will likely supply both so imagine there may be a more steady line of cars. I picture them doing something like 3 weeks of LHD production & 1 week RHD production per month (or something like that... pure conjecture at this point).

6,464 registered in March this year in the UK, but suspect that number will have ramped up dramatically given the fuel prices!

Source

These numbers do make it feel quite unlikely that two ships (if that is all it ends up being) will be enough to cover all outstanding March and April orders, and still have enough left over for any late April/May/June/July orders... Hope I'm wrong, or maybe there are more ships to come this Q!

 

[suresh.thomas@]

Just in case you are wondering where Morning chorus is : MORNING CHORUS, Vehicles Carrier - Details and current position - IMO 9312834 - VesselFinder

I dont see this anywhere on tesla ship tracker for this forum here Tesla Ship Tracker

 

[QuanTim]

These numbers do make it feel quite unlikely that two ships (if that is all it ends up being) will be enough to cover all outstanding March and April orders, and still have enough left over for any late April/May/June/July orders...

Maybe it's because it's Friday, but I'm optimistic a large number of April/May orders will be fulfilled. Whether that extends into June/July orders, I'm not sure. Again, it depends on many factors such as how many batches of each spec Tesla produced. If someone ordered in July and, Tesla produced many of that spec, they could get lucky and get their hands on the car early September... they should feel very fortunate to not have had to ensure months of wait like some people on here (wouldn't necessarily count myself on that list, I've only been waiting since May (though I did have an M3 on order since March and switched)).

Edit: I should add that, we MAY still see a few more ships depart between now and end of the month for both Europe and UK. Just looking at WuWa's drone footage, they've got THOUSANDS waiting in the wings to be shipped. Doubt COMPANION will be able to load them all.

 

[suresh.thomas@]

It seems from other posts on the Shipping thread that there are usually about 4000 ish cars on each ship. Do we have any idea of monthly order volumes in UK for MY? I've seen a few early March orders start to get assigned VINs. I'm a late April order. Do we have any idea at all how many UK MY orders there were in March/April? I have absolutely no idea. It could be 100, 1000, 10000 or 1000000 and I wouldn't be surprised. It's just if we're expecting one or two ships carrying about 4000-8000 cars (I'm guessing majority MY), and someone could tell me that there are x outstanding March/April orders, it would put some perspective on how likely it is I might get one of these....

Mine is quite similar (except mine is cash buy) - we both should get our car by Sept end ( I think its quite certain )

 

[suresh.thomas@]

These numbers do make it feel quite unlikely that two ships (if that is all it ends up being) will be enough to cover all outstanding March and April orders, and still have enough left over for any late April/May/June/July orders... Hope I'm wrong, or maybe there are more ships to come this Q!

I think Tesla would fufil all Model Y orders placed until mid of May and all Model 3 orders placed until March end - towards end of Sept. This is with an assumption that no lock down and no adverse shipping delays

 

[suresh.thomas@]

6,464 registered in March this year in the UK, but suspect that number will have ramped up dramatically given the fuel prices!

Source

As quarter end pushes were the norm (even that's case still) with Tesla , so there were much less cars (may be just few hundreds) during first two months of the quarter

 

[SprintFinish]

Having no way of tracking my end of March, white/black/20 order (salary sacrifice via Lex); the posts on here are giving me a good vibe about delivery not being too far away!

 

[beasty54]

Having no way of tracking my end of March, white/black/20 order (salary sacrifice via Lex); the posts on here are giving me a good vibe about delivery not being too far away!

My fingers and toes are crossed too. Same spec, 4th April order

 

[Toblerone]

Having no way of tracking my end of March, white/black/20 order (salary sacrifice via Lex); the posts on here are giving me a good vibe about delivery not being too far away!

I’d say ignorance is bliss. My EDD was June and now it’s September.

However, if you want to get your hopes up, look in Frizzy’s database for the same spec and similar order dates for a direct order, then ask those people for the current EDD.

I’m sure they’ll all say September for a March order. So Perhaps just wait for a notification!

 

[Zilla91]

It’s Friday afternoon which only means one thing; my EDD is going to be updated at some point. I wonder what date range it’ll land on this time?

 

[NP90]

I’d say ignorance is bliss. My EDD was June and now it’s September.

However, if you want to get your hopes up, look in Frizzy’s database for the same spec and similar order dates for a direct order, then ask those people for the current EDD.

I’m sure they’ll all say September for a March order. So Perhaps just wait for a notification!

I don't like that neither of us have heard anything yet - and no VIN movements for me in 5 weeks either!

 

[adambg]

It’s Friday afternoon which only means one thing; my EDD is going to be updated at some point. I wonder what date range it’ll land on this time?

My update on 22nd was at 3.16PM and on 29th was at 4.49PM, so I calculate I've got about another 2 hours ish of productive work time today before I get distracted.

 

[QuanTim]

I don't like that neither of us have heard anything yet - and no VIN movements for me in 5 weeks either!

I've not heard anything either (PCP).

I'm trying hard to be optimistic that COMPANION or ANTWERP will carry our Tesla's to us. That means many of us should be getting updates in the next... say, 5-7 days max? That is if our cars are on them. It does look like COMPANION might be the fully laden UK ship though since it's been observed that many RHD Tesla's are parked up at port but I'm secretly hoping ANTWERP is carrying them and we may see deliveries early Sep from that boat.

I'm certain, though, that in the next 3 and a half weeks from now till end of August, there will be 1 (or 2?) more ships departing for the UK. Having patience is hard though!

 

[ElsDee]

I feel i have an EDDE (EDD ediction), i cannot help myself, i keep refreshing, surely the longer i leave it between refreshes the greater the chance i'll see it change, but i cannot help myself! Just off to watch another youtube review,

 

[garreth64]

Spoke with Tesla today and they advised the current estimate for my car on their system is Sept 8th, but said it is only an estimate and no VIN yet.
Current EDD is 5-30 and has not changed for several weeks. Order details in Sig.

 

[NP90]

I've not heard anything either (PCP).

I'm trying hard to be optimistic that COMPANION or ANTWERP will carry our Tesla's to us. That means many of us should be getting updates in the next... say, 5-7 days max? That is if our cars are on them. It does look like COMPANION might be the fully laden UK ship though since it's been observed that many RHD Tesla's are parked up at port but I'm secretly hoping ANTWERP is carrying them and we may see deliveries early Sep from that boat.

I'm certain, though, that in the next 3 and a half weeks from now till end of August, there will be 1 (or 2?) more ships departing for the UK. Having patience is hard though!

I think we need a Team Blue/20 support group? Along with @Toblerone

 

[TeamBlue]

Called Tesla and was told my Sept EDD late may order should receive a vin in the next 2-3 weeks. Was told almost guaranteed bar any unforeseen circumstances, and he would be very surprised if I don't receive this quarter!

 

[Spacerat]

Called Tesla and was told my Sept EDD late may order should receive a vin in the next 2-3 weeks. Was told almost guaranteed bar any unforeseen circumstances, and he would be very surprised if I don't receive this quarter!

Same spec delivery Glasgow - May 11th order: spoke to Tesla via live chat yesterday and they were 50 / 50 whether it would this quarter!