Modle 3 delivery schedule vs US Tax Credit schedule

[Austindude]

First Assumption: Independent of Model 3 deliveries Tesla will cross the 200,000 cars delivered mark during Q1 2018 due to Model S and X sales. This will trigger the tax schedule and mean that Q1 will be the first of two consecutive quarters for the remaining full $7.5K tax credit.

Second Assumption: At some point during Q1 Model 3 production will reach the promised rate of 5,000 cars per week. During the rest of 2018 Model 3 production should linearly ramp up to the promised 10,000 cars per week by the end of Q4.

Using the above assumptions any reservation holder in line below about 370,000 has a good chance of getting a delivery during 2018 and will receive at least $3.75K in available tax credits. The remaining reservation holders (130,000 ?) should receive their cars in Q1 or possibly Q2 of 2019 and will be able to use the schedule ending $1.875K federal tax credit.

Does this seem reasonable?

 

[Runt8]

It's possible that 200,000 won't be hit until the beginning of Q2 but most people are estimating Q1.

Overall I would say your assumptions are fairly likely, although I'm betting many here will disagree with the linear ramp up to 10,000/week by Q4.

I'm assuming by "in line" you mean the Tesla version of the line, which takes into account many things other than the date your order was placed.

 

[eSpiritIV]

...
Using the above assumptions any reservation holder in line below about 370,000 has a good chance of getting a delivery during 2018 and will receive at least $3.75K in available tax credits. The remaining reservation holders (130,000 ?) should receive their cars in Q1 or possibly Q2 of 2019 and will be able to use the schedule ending $1.875K federal tax credit.

Does this seem reasonable?

So what is your assumption when the full tax credit will expire? How many deliveries will have taken place at the full credit?

 

[EV-Bull]

to the promised 10,000 cars per week by the end of Q4.

I don't see that happening. I just don't see them going above 5k per week without a second factory. I think 200k model 3s in 2018 is best case scenario (but I hope I'm wrong).

 

[EV-Bull]

So what is your assumption when the full tax credit will expire? How many deliveries will have taken place at the full credit?

My guess (because that is all it is) is that IF the 200,000th car is sold in Q2, and the full credit is available until the end of Q3, anywhere from 125,000 to 175,000 Model 3s could get the full credit (and that's assuming a ramp up to 5k per week goes smoothly with no recalls or supply chain issues).

 

[run-the-joules]

(and that's assuming a ramp up to 5k per week goes smoothly with no recalls or supply chain issues).

That is an enormous, very generous assumption.

 

[crackers8199]

i can't imagine there's any way elon won't shift deliveries around / game the system to make sure he doesn't hit 200k on exactly april 1, 2018 or july 1, 2018.

 

[Austindude]

• Elon has made two promises (Well ...maybe at least two, hehe), 5K M3's per week production rate by end of Q1 2018 and 10K per week rate by end of Q4 2018. We should soon know (January call to investors) if M3 production is running near 5K per week. If that turns out to be true then maybe M3 production really will reach 10K per week by end of Q4 2018. Either way S and X sales should push Tesla over the 200K mark for cars delivered in Q1 and that starts the tax credit clock.

 

[crackers8199]

• Elon has made two promises (Well ...maybe at least two, hehe), 5K M3's per week production rate by end of Q1 2018 and 10K per week rate by end of Q4 2018. We should soon know (January call to investors) if M3 production is running near 5K per week. If that turns out to be true then maybe M3 production really will reach 10K per week by end of Q4 2018. Either way S and X sales should push Tesla over the 200K mark for cars delivered in Q1 and that starts the tax credit clock.

...unless (as i said) he shifts enough deliveries around (i.e. outside the US) to put it off. there's no way he's going to hit the 200k mark on any day other than day 1 of a quarter unless there is absolutely no way to avoid it.

 

[kalikgod]

First Assumption: Independent of Model 3 deliveries Tesla will cross the 200,000 cars delivered mark during Q1 2018 due to Model S and X sales. This will trigger the tax schedule and mean that Q1 will be the first of two consecutive quarters for the remaining full $7.5K tax credit.

Second Assumption: At some point during Q1 Model 3 production will reach the promised rate of 5,000 cars per week. During the rest of 2018 Model 3 production should linearly ramp up to the promised 10,000 cars per week by the end of Q4.

Using the above assumptions any reservation holder in line below about 370,000 has a good chance of getting a delivery during 2018 and will receive at least $3.75K in available tax credits. The remaining reservation holders (130,000 ?) should receive their cars in Q1 or possibly Q2 of 2019 and will be able to use the schedule ending $1.875K federal tax credit.

Does this seem reasonable?

First Assumption:

Just a reminder that the 200k mark is for vehicles produced with US VINs, not deliveries in the US. I would roughly say that most deliveries are 2 weeks following production completion, just a WAG of “4 weeks” from configuration divided by two.

Like @crackers8199 above, I think Tesla will be gaming the system to push VIN number 200,001 to April. I would guess that means a glut of non-US S and X production in Q1.

Second Assumption:

5000 / week is what Tesla was tooling for in this initial ramp for Model 3. 10,000 / week will involve new levels of production at various stages. My best guess is three major areas: cells and packs at GF1, at least one more assembly line in Fremont, doubling production of all suppliers.

To solve and apply capital to these, I would guess Tesla is waiting to hit 5000 / week mark first to make sure they are ordering the right equipment. So my guess would be 6 months of 5000 / week production, followed by an “exponential ramp” from 5k to 10k per week starting Fall 2018.


But my assumptions are also assumptions and you know what they say about those

 

[jsmay311]

First Assumption: Independent of Model 3 deliveries Tesla will cross the 200,000 cars delivered mark during Q1 2018 due to Model S and X sales.

Going by the InsiveEVs numbers, Tesla was at ~152,761 at the end of November 2017.

There's no way Model S + X sales get them to 200,000 during Q1 2018 without significant Model 3 deliveries. (Domestic S + X sales over the last 12 months are less than 50k, so they're not gonna have another 50k over the next 4 months.)

 

[kalikgod]

Going by the InsiveEVs numbers, Tesla was at ~152,761 at the end of November 2017.

There's no way Model S + X sales get them to 200,000 during Q1 2018 without significant Model 3 deliveries. (Domestic S + X sales over the last 12 months are less than 50k, so they're not gonna have another 50k over the next 4 months.)

For S and X, let’s say 7500 in December (biggest month of the year). Another 10k in Q1 (slowest quarter of the year).

So 48,000 - 17,500 equals ~30k Model 3 production (not deliveries) through March. That is getting very close if Tesla plans to hit 5k / week at least once in Q1.

 

[dsvick]

Just a reminder that the 200k mark is for vehicles produced with US VINs, not deliveries in the US.

No, the credit specifically says "sold", which means delivered
"The credit begins to phase out for a manufacturer’s vehicles when at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles have been sold for use in the United States..."
Plug In Electric Vehicle Credit IRC 30 and IRC 30D | Internal Revenue Service

 

[kbM3]

• Elon has made two promises (Well ...maybe at least two, hehe), 5K M3's per week production rate by end of Q1 2018 and 10K per week rate by end of Q4 2018. We should soon know (January call to investors) if M3 production is running near 5K per week. If that turns out to be true then maybe M3 production really will reach 10K per week by end of Q4 2018. Either way S and X sales should push Tesla over the 200K mark for cars delivered in Q1 and that starts the tax credit clock.

He would not reaffirm the 10k/wk in 2018 promise in the last call when asked. I was disappointed because he had earlier stated 100% confidence in hitting this target (which he never expresses this level of certainty).

 

[kalikgod]

No, the credit specifically says "sold", which means delivered
"The credit begins to phase out for a manufacturer’s vehicles when at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles have been sold for use in the United States..."
Plug In Electric Vehicle Credit IRC 30 and IRC 30D | Internal Revenue Service

Hmm, I guess I had that wrong.

IEVs refers to it as “sale registered” here too.

US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

That makes it much easier for Tesla to push to 2018Q2. Massive April Fools Day delivery event? Who is the joke on?

 

[Downtown]

Thanks, this is helpful as I weigh 1st Production (Feb-April 2018 estimate) vs Standard Battery (now “Mid 2018”).

 

[Mo City]

Thanks, this is helpful as I weigh 1st Production (Feb-April 2018 estimate) vs Standard Battery (now “Mid 2018”).

In my case, I want the dual motor, all-wheel drive but only if the full $7,500.00 credit applies. Since I didn't order on the first day, that is doubtful.