Munro Teardown Shows Model 3 Profitable With 30%+ Margins

[ℬête Noire]

*Sigh*... that's my point. The Bolt doesn't, so they integrated an expensive mirror, and thus it's a silly comparison point.

Bolt did it in this uncoordinated way with an expensive assembly in a disparate sub-system.

Tesla did whizz-bang feature cheaper by leveraging a part in unified control computer system (the 15" display).

EDIT: BTW the German company's teardown talked about this, as well. How the heavy [mechanical, not just esthetic] simplification of the physical features in the cabin via concentrating nearly all controls onto the electronic control system was a huge cost savings driver. So it isn't just crazy-old-guy talking about this.

 

[Singuy]

He says, of the Model 3's drive computers"

...this is the type of stuff you see on computers for the government or something..."
"...you are looking at the same type of technology you'd see on a flight controller for an F-35..."
"...everything here you see smacks of defense technology..."

Those are direct quotes from the earlier tear down video

I think you didn't hear him say "and another area we see this kind of stuff is in GAMING which requires crazy speed". He also said "the density is like cell phone technology here".

He is not saying the tech doesn't exist..it just never existed in cars. The only other mechanical machines he have seen such components are fighter jets. So I don't know where he is off here.

 

[scaesare]

I think you didn't hear him say "and another area we see this kind of stuff is in GAMING which requires crazy speed". He also said "the density is like cell phone technology here".

He is not saying the tech doesn't exist..it just never existed in cars. The only other mechanical machines he have seen such components are fighter jets. So I don't know where he is off here.

If you can find the tech in the PlayStation you can buy at the local toy store, then drop the "This is straight out of fighter jet and government defense computer" hyperbole. A board that's in essence an Nvidia PX2 drive system that can be readily bought isn't something only the gov't or military has. The fact that he seemed clueless about who Nvidia was and/or what they build/supply didn't help.

The other inaccuracies and contradictions on basic math also don't help his cause.

I'm sure the guy knows traditional cars. He doesn't come off as an authority on EV's... and he admitted more than once he dined on crow... so he and I both agree at least his initial analysis was off.

 

[Singuy]

Perhaps you have a comprehension problem. He is saying that typically cars doesn't use fighter jet/gaming/cell phone techs. What they found in the Model 3 is light years ahead of the Detroit guys. Just like how typically my toaster doesn't use cell phone techs, but if Tesla Toasters are to create my toast, then they are light years ahead of the next toaster oven when it comes to tech.

 

[Electroman]

Montana Skeptic aka Lawrence Fossi is on a melt down in Seeking Alpha comments section, furiously moving the goal posts.

Years maintaining that this car would cost much more than the sale price, now the shorts are moving the goal posts to, 'ya sure this M3 is cheaper to manufacture by any fossil fuel company, but not by Tesla'.

And the proof for that is the loss they made in Q4 and Q1, when they barely made 200 and 1000 M3 cars a week, when all along Musk said that they need to hit well north of 5k/week to see profits across all models - which is true for any mass market car.

 

[brianman]

Montana Skeptic aka Lawrence Fossi is on a melt down in Seeking Alpha comments section, furiously moving the goal posts.

Years maintaining that this car would cost much more than the sale price, now the shorts are moving the goal posts to, 'ya sure this M3 is cheaper to manufacture by any fossil fuel company, but not by Tesla'.

And the proof for that is the loss they made in Q4 and Q1, when they barely made 200 and 1000 M3 cars a week, when all along Musk said that they need to hit well north of 5k/week to see profits across all models - which is true for any mass market car.

Shorts are hoping to keep the price at bay 'til the current ones expire (this week, right?). Then they may let it float next week so they can spin up the treadmill again. Easier money with Twitter missteps by Elon :|

 

[TT97]

If you can find the tech in the PlayStation you can buy at the local toy store, then drop the "This is straight out of fighter jet and government defense computer" hyperbole. A board that's in essence an Nvidia PX2 drive system that can be readily bought isn't something only the gov't or military has. The fact that he seemed clueless about who Nvidia was and/or what they build/supply didn't help.

The other inaccuracies and contradictions on basic math also don't help his cause.

I'm sure the guy knows traditional cars. He doesn't come off as an authority on EV's... and he admitted more than once he dined on crow... so he and I both agree at least his initial analysis was off.

Munro does a lot of automotive work, they don't do as many EVs as there are not as many out there to do, however, they do considerably more than just automotive. Munro does tear-downs for a wide array of customers from aerospace and defense to many household electronics.

His comments are not hyperbole, he is very familiar with technology in both fighter jets and PlayStations.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Shorts are hoping to keep the price at bay 'til the current ones expire (this week, right?). Then they may let it float next week so they can spin up the treadmill again. Easier money with Twitter missteps by Elon :|

I thought the majority of the puts are very long range, out into 2019? A stock price spike anytime over, say, the next 6 month would likely trigger margin calls and make it expensive to even try ride it out to the end of those hoping to see a downturn (or Tesla issuing new shares to raise capital to start on the Model Y ramp, which would dilute the stock value and likely lower the price somewhat from wherever it is at).

 

[SageBrush]

How close does PCB density track with electronics sophistication ?

 

[mongo]

How close does PCB density track with electronics sophistication ?

Disclaimer: it's been 7 years since I was in Tier 1 electronics...
Highly.
High density BGAs are more finicky to design for and assemble, along with long term reliability (remember red ring of death?).
Automotive OEMs tend to be conservative in their designs with large parts, more spacing, less difficult IC packages.

As to the PCB itself, micro vias, blind vias, buried vias, in pad vias all increase PCB cost, but also increase density, and can improve signal integrity. They can even embed parts inside the PCB these days...

 

[ℬête Noire]

How close does PCB density track with electronics sophistication ?

Electronics done for the same sort of application, fairly closely. Increasing density costs, so normally you only do it if you leaving it less dense wouldn't leave the overall PCB too onerously large.

The caveat is that certain types of electronics, and I'm talking ones that are dealing with large power controls, naturally need more room per component because they generate a LOT more heat per component from the power they control flowing through them. So comparing the component density of of a PC motherboard and a industrial motor controller is somewhat apples to oranges.

It is a bit indirect, but basically the density implies the component count. You also need to be using more technical sophistication to utilize and organize a higher density PCB (comes back to that higher cost I mentioned above).

 

[scaesare]

Perhaps you have a comprehension problem. He is saying that typically cars doesn't use fighter jet/gaming/cell phone techs. What they found in the Model 3 is light years ahead of the Detroit guys. Just like how typically my toaster doesn't use cell phone techs, but if Tesla Toasters are to create my toast, then they are light years ahead of the next toaster oven when it comes to tech.

I comprehend what he's saying quite well. I'm simply of the opinion he seemed he's not as conversant on this side of things.

It seems in this thread that opinion is in the minority. Interestingly, when I posted that same sentiment when the Munroe review had a more negative slant it got all likes and informative ratings. Saying similarly now seems to have garnered much more disagreement now that the review is largely positive.

Fascinating...

 

[ℬête Noire]

I comprehend what he's saying quite well. I'm simply of the opinion he seemed he's not as conversant on this side of things.

It seems in this thread that opinion is in the minority. Interestingly, when I posted that same sentiment when the Munroe review had a more negative slant it got all likes and informative ratings. Saying similarly now seems to have garnered much more disagreement now that the review is largely positive.

Fascinating...

You'll maybe notice my handle isn't listed there on your post?

I think he marble mouths some stuff (like the 20% increase in density that the 2170 seems to have) and is prone to setting his hair on fire, and missed the mark along with hitting the mark and has some useful insights (would you care to peruse my posts from back then, to note I've been rather consistent on this?)

However the gist of the matter of how and why that rear view is cheaper? He's dead on with that.

Dead.

On.

P.S. It'd be rather hilarious if he would have used the glove box as an example. But I suspect that cuts a little too close to his heart.

 

[kengchang]

Tesla is duping customer by using $25 rear view mirror instead of $130 on a 60k car totally unacceptable !!! /s

 

[SageBrush]

Electronics done for the same sort of application, fairly closely. Increasing density costs, so normally you only do it if you leaving it less dense wouldn't leave the overall PCB too onerously large.

Thanks. If small packaging is not the driver, why bother then with a dense PCB ?

 

[mongo]

Thanks. If small packaging is not the driver, why bother then with a dense PCB ?

Smaller PCB means lower cost in PCB material, easier packaging. Shorter traces means less emissions and susceptibility.

 

[SageBrush]

It seems in this thread that opinion is in the minority. Interestingly, when I posted that same sentiment when the Munroe review had a more negative slant it got all likes and informative ratings. Saying similarly now seems to have garnered much more disagreement now that the review is largely positive.

I for one agree with you that electronics is not his strong suit, but my point is that his point does not require that of him He sees a highly integrated design and recognizes the value. The same can probably be said for most of us on this forum, myself included.

 

[SageBrush]

Shorter traces means less emissions and susceptibility

Are these things important in a car, and if so would you mention some semi-quant benefits ?

 

[ℬête Noire]

Thanks. If small packaging is not the driver, why bother then with a dense PCB ?

It is a driver, that's what I'm implying. "I've got so much stuff that going on here that I'd have a massive board if I didn't shrink it down."

At a certain point there is also a speed factor. In simple terms, shorter distance means the frequency (thus the speed of signal changes, processing power, etc) can be higher. This is because electricity, while fast, isn't zero speed. Also, larger circuits generally means higher impedance (that's like resistance but scales with frequency increase).

 

[mongo]

Are these things important in a car, and if so would you mention some semi-quant benefits ?

Yes, many FCC requirements do not apply to mobile electronics, but you also don't want your drive unit going wonky due to CB radio in the next car over.
Overall, I'd guess it was more packaging driven to get all that to fit in the 3 pack's penthouse.