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Musk: All modes AP by end 2019

Here we go again.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk: ‘self-driving will encompass all modes of driving by the end of next year’

It's like that scene in The Lego Movie where Batman tries repeatedly to hit a button....


All visionaries are terrible at timelines. I had to listen to Bill Gates pontificate on what would happen in 10 years and 2 years. Always overestimated what would happen in 10 years and underestimated what would happen in 2 years.

At some point, Musk will have to put up or shut up. The "experts" now see Tesla as lagging many other companies in FSD. Maybe we need another DARPA competition to get this to consumer automobiles.
 
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From 3 months maybe....6 months definitely!! (TWICE NOW) to 18. Months from now?

Bring out the 20 gallon coolers of KoolAide please. We all need a cup or two. Pass it around. :eek::eek:
Not entirely accurate.

The first time Elon said that, he said in that time the cars with FSD would start to deviate from those with just EAP. He has never said that FSD will be completed in 3 months maybe, 6 months def. Although he has estimated about 2 years a few years now.
 

boonedocks

MS LR Blk/Blk 19” FSD BETA 2nd round
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Not entirely accurate.

The first time Elon said that, he said in that time the cars with FSD would start to deviate from those with just EAP. He has never said that FSD will be completed in 3 months maybe, 6 months def. Although he has estimated about 2 years a few years now.

I was being sarcastic. It is indeed accurate in that timelines and dates and statements made in public forums whether tweets or speeches or Q&A sessions are often completely overlooked when those dates come and go - wash rinse and repeat -

The Kool-Aide brigade will certainly chime in but it really is getting old....
 
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Here we go again.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk: ‘self-driving will encompass all modes of driving by the end of next year’

It's like that scene in The Lego Movie where Batman tries repeatedly to hit a button....

It'd be nice if you or Electrek would just link to the source. I'd like to see the video or hear the audio Electrek claims to have taken this from.

Oh, I see they took it from the middle of a 1 hour rambling session around the 30 minute mark he starts talking about AI and around 34 minutes in mentions autopilot in passing saying what he always says about it's safety advantages as an example of how AI will advance exponentially.


Yeah I watched the whole thing live and didn't think it was worth a clickbait article about self driving. It's poor journalism that Electrek doesn't clearly link to the source.

The headline could have just as easily been that Elon said Autopilot 2 will be at least 2 or 3 times better than Autopilot 1 when the software is matured (presumably in terms of safety, even with more modes enabled).
 
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buttershrimp

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I drove AP1 and AP2 this weekend on the same roads, lots of video and on the same road with same settings in identical cars. @TaoJones, @BigD0g , @verygreen ,@lunitiks , @jimmy_d are the folks that I feel obligated to share this info with.

Everyone on the forum knows I'm a big AP2 fan, but I have to give credit where credit is due.

I would post the video, but it would be a lot of work just before a critical update will likely come for AP2.

IMHO, right now, AP1 is quite a bit more usable than AP2 for two reasons, speed limit sign recognition and lane changing is far far more available on more roads.... AP2 is brutalized everytime a construction lane takes you off the beaten path.. The lane changing of AP1 in particular is really a lot better. I was shocked by this in particular. @BLKTSLA had some good videos on this.

AP1 is not perfect, however, it's limitations are more predictable, and certainly AP2 does do several things better, the problem is that it doesn't convert to a more functional experience..... My main thought is this, until Tesla pushes an update with ability to read speed limit signs, I don't see how AP2 will surpass AP1 in the majority of situations.

I'm very optimistic about AP2, but I'll be honest, if I had owned an AP1 car and then upgraded my car to AP2, I'd be very frustrated. It pains me to write this, but it is so clear why this would have felt like a gigantic step down in functionality for someone who used AP1 and then got AP2. Also, I don't think it's helpful to be angry with the folks at Tesla who are likely trying very hard to take AP2 to the next level. I look at the discrepancy as evidence of how hard it is to take a more complex system to the next level. perhaps @lunitiks and his cycloptic cat versus baby multi eyed alien is the most accurate analogy

I'm extremely excited to see the two updates coming from Tesla. The HD maps are probably going to help, but I'm much more interested at this point to see when speed limit sign reading comes into play. This is a clear deficiency for AP2 right now. The only other insight I have from this experience is that if one area could be reverse engineered from AP1, it should be the autolane change. It's so good that a person using Autopilot for the first time would feel comfortable with it on the first couple of tries.
 

stopcrazypp

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Dec 8, 2007
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Bladerskb

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I want to see what was the question asked and what context he said it in. It seems he is saying in general he expects that to happen in the industry (nothing to do with FSD option in current cars, or necessarily even Tesla at all).


So lets just ignore the dozens of predictions he has made claiming Level 5 will be here ranging from Dec 2017 through March 2019
 

stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
12,036
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It'd be nice if you or Electrek would just link to the source. I'd like to see the video or hear the audio Electrek claims to have taken this from.

Oh, I see they took it from the middle of a 1 hour rambling session around the 30 minute mark he starts talking about AI and around 34 minutes in mentions autopilot in passing saying what he always says about it's safety advantages as an example of how AI will advance exponentially.


Yeah I watched the whole thing live and didn't think it was worth a clickbait article about self driving. It's poor journalism that Electrek doesn't clearly link to the source.

The headline could have just as easily been that Elon said Autopilot 2 will be at least 2 or 3 times better than Autopilot 1 when the software is matured (presumably in terms of safety, even with more modes enabled).
Thanks so much for the source. Electrek really got the context completely wrong. Listening to the video, it's 100% clear he's talking about AI in general and self-driving AI in general, not Tesla specifically. He leads with the example with alphago and alphazero (clearly not Tesla products), and then talks about self driving advancing to that point. He ends talking about the safety rates for autopilot 1 (and his expectations for autopilot 2), but never adds any predictions about Tesla's self driving efforts nor the FSD option.
 

stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
12,036
7,834
So lets just ignore the dozens of predictions he has made claiming Level 5 will be here ranging from Dec 2017 through March 2019
There's a pretty big difference between Elon saying that he believes the self-driving industry will be able to handle all modes of driving by the end of 2019 (as he did here) and him saying Tesla will do that or that the current FSD optioned cars will do that (as Electrek's article is implying).

Same thing with other quotes he made at talks previously. He's not necessarily referring to Tesla's efforts (for example in this case he was using an alphago as an example for AI advancement).
 

Bladerskb

Senior Software Engineer
Oct 24, 2016
2,688
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Michigan
Thanks so much for the source. Electrek really got the context completely wrong. Listening to the video, it's 100% clear he's talking about AI in general and self-driving AI in general, not Tesla specifically. He leads with the example with alphago and alphazero (clearly not Tesla products), and then talks about self driving advancing to that point. He ends talking about the safety rates for autopilot 1 (and his expectations for autopilot 2), but never adds any predictions about Tesla's self driving efforts nor the FSD option.

Name me one Self driving company, or academic institution or anyone from the industry that have said, expects or eluded to the fact that their self driving software/tech/car by the end of 2019 will work in "all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person."? other than Elon Musk himself.
 

Bladerskb

Senior Software Engineer
Oct 24, 2016
2,688
4,504
Michigan
There's a pretty big difference between Elon saying that he believes the self-driving industry will be able to handle all modes of driving by the end of 2019 (as he did here) and him saying Tesla will do that or that the current FSD optioned cars will do that (as Electrek's article is implying).

Same thing with other quotes he made at talks previously. He's not necessarily referring to Tesla's efforts (for example in this case he was using an alphago as an example for AI advancement).

You mean quotes like this:

January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY" -

Elon Musk on Twitter

or this:

March 2017: "the time when someone will be able to buy one of your cars and literally just take the hands off the wheel and go to sleep and wake up and find that they've arrived, how far away is that, to do that safely? I think that's about two years."

The future we're building -- and boring


and i could go on and on.
But I love how your narrative and talking points have completely changed.
Trying out a new angle? i see!
 

TaoJones

Beyond Driven
Nov 10, 2014
3,064
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I drove AP1 and AP2 this weekend on the same roads, lots of video and on the same road with same settings in identical cars. @TaoJones, @BigD0g , @verygreen ,@lunitiks , @jimmy_d are the folks that I feel obligated to share this info with.

...

I'm very optimistic about AP2, but I'll be honest, if I had owned an AP1 car and then upgraded my car to AP2, I'd be very frustrated. It pains me to write this, but it is so clear why this would have felt like a gigantic step down in functionality for someone who used AP1 and then got AP2.

Well, bless yer heart. That's exactly right and for some of us cost $30K to find out after believing, in part, that video from 12/2016 as well as the BS about supercharging going away for new models and then being brought back 4 weeks and a day after the 4/15/2017 delivery deadline.

In any case, glad you got to experience the discrepancy for yourself. If only many others would do likewise before opining.

Ale's on me next time I get to Austin.
 

TaoJones

Beyond Driven
Nov 10, 2014
3,064
3,029
The Americas
If my new P100D scheduled for June delivery is not better than my 3 year old P85D - I might give them back the $2,500 deposit and tell them to put the money toward AP2 development and call me at the end of next year or whatever the latest tweet says.

And this is coming from the huge fan boy and Musk follower...

You might want to request an AP2 car for the weekend or for a couple of midweek days so you can get an idea as to whether your driving area and habits can withstand the switch to AP2. If most of your driving is within the vanilla use case realm, then no worries, and enjoy the lessened wind noise, better seats and fewer rattles. If driving through an intersection with a small trailing rise and then having the car jerk toward parked cars and/or the brakes being slammed on *every single time* through that intersection (whereas with AP1 there were no such foibles), then you might want to give AP2 a little more time to marinate.
 
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