Blog Musk Touts ‘Quantum Leap” in Full Self-Driving Performance

A “quantum leap” improvement is coming to Tesla’s Autopilot software in six to 10 weeks, Chief Executive Elon Musk said a tweet.

Musk called the new software a “fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1294374864657162240

Musk said his personal car is running a “bleeding edge alpha build” of the software, which he also mentioned during Tesla’s Q2 earnings. 

“So it’s almost getting to the point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions, despite going through construction and widely varying situations,” Musk said on the earnings call. “So this is why I am very confident about full self-driving functionality being complete by the end of this year, is because I’m literally driving it.”

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software has been slow to roll out against the company’s promises. Musk previously said a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York using the Full Self Driving feature by the end of 2019. The company didn’t meet that goal. So, it will be interesting to see the state of Autopilot at the end of 2020.

 

[boonedocks]

So Elon has gone from "3 months maybe, 6 months for sure" to "6 weeks maybe, 10 weeks for sure" in only 3.5 years? Progress? Or just a need for some headlines?

Seems about right timing to keep The stock price up through September.

 

[uspearls]

And for those of us with MCU1, how many visual goodies will we get, if any? Or will it make our MCU experience even laggier than it is? The dreamer in me hopes this will come with an announcement of MCU3 and/or free MCU upgrades for FSD owners.

 

[diplomat33]

And for those of us with MCU1, how many visual goodies will we get, if any? Or will it make our MCU experience even laggier than it is? The dreamer in me hopes this will come with an announcement of MCU3 and/or free MCU upgrades for FSD owners.

It might be time to upgrade to MCU2.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So Elon has gone from "3 months maybe, 6 months for sure" to "6 weeks maybe, 10 weeks for sure" in only 3.5 years? Progress? Or just a need for some headlines?

I know. It's almost as if he's bullshitting about the timelines while the company's trying to solve the problem.

Just like the Model X.

 

[uspearls]

It might be time to upgrade to MCU2.

You're right, I should at least get on the wait list. My SC isn't making appointments for MCU2 right now.

 

[mikevbf]

I wonder if Tesla will increase the price of FSD again when they release the rewrite?

 

[diplomat33]

I wonder if Tesla will increase the price of FSD again when they release the rewrite?

Probably.

 

[DrtyJrze]

Probably.

Yup. They’ll raise the FSD price and simultaneously introduce the $10/month no contract subscription some people think is coming, hahaha.

 

[whitex]

I wonder if Tesla will increase the price of FSD again when they release the rewrite?

Elon did say each Tesla with FSD will be worth up to $200,000 when FSD is ready. Only 4 months ago, Elon still maintained that robo taxis are coming in 2020. So, if you believe Elon, looks like FSD price should be going to $50,000+ any day now.

 

[diplomat33]

Yup. They’ll raise the FSD price and simultaneously introduce the $10/month no contract subscription some people think is coming, hahaha.

I think it is likely that Tesla will introduce the subscription model for FSD. I think the reason will be that the full price for FSD will probably be too expensive for people after V11 is released so Tesla will want to give buyers a more affordable alternative.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Elon has mentioned as it gets better, they will charge more.

 

[GrimRe]

Yup. They’ll raise the FSD price and simultaneously introduce the $10/month no contract subscription some people think is coming, hahaha.

I think it'll be 10x more expensive. $99 per month at least.

If you say FSD is $8,000 then you'd need to use FSD for over 6.5 years for it to equal out right?

Not so fast...

FSD outright purchase comes with residual value. What you need to do is work out the depreciation of buying FSD versus the leasing fee.

Let's say you buy a Tesla today for $40k (car) + $8k (FSD).

In 5 years time, let's say that same model brand new is ($35k) car + $25k (FSD)

(FSD cost continues to increases 25% per year)

Then let's say you concede a 20% yearly deprecation over 5 years the car is worth (relative to a brand new one)... $11.4k (car) and $8.2k (FSD). I would say that the resale value of FSD won't actually depreciate as much as the car itself but we can be conservative and say it does.

Therefore, you have only "lost" $1,800 over 5 years to have FSD. If you would have leased FSD for 5 years at $99 per month you would have lost $6,000

Ergo buying FSD today even at $8k is the better option.

 

[whitex]

You know, this thread brought back a little bit of nostalgia - reminded me of all those die hard fans of Elon back in the days of AP2.0 introduction, predicting things based on Elon's statements:
Muted Auto Industry response to Tesla's Full Self Driving move - why?
"Tesla expects to enable full self-driving by the end of 2017"
Initial 1000 HW2 cars getting AP software 12/31/16
Frustrated with FSD timeline
An old saying comes to mind: "Those who don't learn their history, are doomed to repeat it"

 

[mikes_fsd]

You're right, I should at least get on the wait list. My SC isn't making appointments for MCU2 right now.

Just try to schedule it through the app, I got my MCU1 > MCU2 upgrade done last week.

 

[nobrien1]

At this point, I would be happy to have AutoPark actually work and have the car under Autopilot not veer going by interstate entrances / exits without dotted lines!

 

[nukequazar]

A “quantum leap” improvement is coming to Tesla’s Autopilot software in six to 10 weeks, Chief Executive Elon Musk said a tweet. Musk called the new software a “fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak.” The FSD improvement will come as a quantum leap, because it’s a fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak. I drive...
[WPURI="https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2020/08/15/musk-touts-quantum-leap-in-full-self-driving-performance/"]READ FULL ARTICLE[/WPURI]

These cars will never get past Level 2 Autonomy.

 

[Tardyon]

Quantum = very small
Definition of QUANTUM

Strictly speaking that is incorrect. In physics nomenclature Quantum denotes “quantized” over “continuum”.
Size is not specified not does it matter. In quantum mechanics the quantization often involves small units, but it does not have to.
The term quantum leap means a discrete leap.
Signed.
A. Physicist.

 

[TLLMRRJ]

Ergo buying FSD today even at $8k is the better option.

That's assuming a big "if" that FSD will ever work with the HW in our current cars. I bet no, it won't.

 

[cartrr]

Tesla has a policy of continous improvement.

.....if a little somewhat ELONgated

 

[Silicon Desert]

I am suppressing my "inner fanboy" because if we set expectations too high, we are likely to be disappointed. Let's not forget that Elon called Smart Summon "magical" and said it would "blow our minds". And we all know Smart Summon fell way short of that when it was first released. Elon is great at hype. And he admits that he cannot quite do his work-home commute free of disengagements so we know the rewrite won't be able to handle everything. My guess is that the rewrite will be a big improvement over what we have now and it will do turns at intersections. So some simple commutes will have zero disengagements. But I suspect there will be plenty of situations that the rewrite cannot handle.

Took the words right out of my mouth. And 6 to 10 weeks? I always multiply his estimates by PI, so I'll expect it in 18 to 20 weeks If earlier, I will be pleasantly surprised.