Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

My Experience With EAP Suggests Not Only Won't FSD Go Up In Price, It's Going To Go Down

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
5,713
6,848
Snohomish, WA
You don't think treating people differently based on what you actually sold them makes sense?

That's kinda weird.

More seriously though, you seem to be reading the point backward.

It's not that Tesla will "deny" post-March-19 buyers the magic L5 FSD once they have it.

It's that they'll be obligated only to refund the pre-march-19 buyers when they find the sensor suite isn't capable of delivering it.

Because the pre-3/19 buyers will have bought something specific Tesla can't deliver.

The post 3/19 buyers will have received everything promised to them when they bought since that's a much smaller, very specific, list of features.

It really comes down to the fact that you're reading milestones on the order page as the only thing promised, and you're disregarding what's shown on the product page for various models like the Model 3.

I don't agree with this way of looking at it, but I acknowledge that people are doing this.

Tesla shouldn't have the order page the way they do because it's too weak of an offering. It's also a bit of a lie as lots of the features listed don't really work well enough to be considered accomplished. They likely watered it down for accounting reasons, but it's now causing customers to wonder what comes next?

I don't expect the order page to improve either. I hope they add more milestones, but instead I think they'll simply add auto-steer under the list of things complete when they roll out a primitive version of it.

Basically the milestones were simply a way of giving people a sense that something was being worked on, but will go away once it no longer has that value.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mikes_fsd

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
5,713
6,848
Snohomish, WA
And I am saying that the original Autopilot landing page has the most broad/generous definition of FSD, and Tesla should be held to that from a point of view of deliverables.

I was trying to keep my arguments contained within internally linked stuff that a customer would see while on the website.

In reality as you pointed out people rarely do this. They use google, they use elons twitter, etc.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mikes_fsd

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
5,713
6,848
Snohomish, WA
Obviously everyone with HW3 will get the same software because that is what they have achieved. But what if they need HW4 to achieve true FSD?
I contend that people who ordered "Autosteer on city streets" are unlikely to get any compensation since that feature will be delivered and anything else is "dependent on achieving."

I contend that everyone with the same hardware/software combo will get treated the same because hardware is what dictates the limits of an experience with the SW.

Companies love pretending that SW is magical, and they can do anything or fix anything in SW. That's rarely the case so eventually a company has to own up to the fact that the hardware simply can't do the job promised.

It's going to be really tough when one HW version performs remarkably better than the previous version, and yet they both claim they're capable of doing the same thing.

I think its easy for Tesla to hide behind regulatory issues when it comes achieving binary L3/L4/L5 approval in various jurisdictions, but it's going to be very hard to explain why an L2 feature like auto-lane change works all the time with HW4 versus HW3 when both vehicles have FSD.

If it's as simple as a computer change I expect them to upgrade the computers for free, but I don't think it will be that simple. There will probably be sensor changes so Tesla will have to find other ways to deal with the fallout.

Selling FSD was a really bad idea because they were selling the grand slam.

They didn't give themselves any room to sell something better.

They don't have an out simply because they put things into milestones, and pretended they worked just because they moved them to the done column.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pilotSteve

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
7,048
10,471
San Diego
I contend that everyone with the same hardware/software combo will get treated the same because hardware is what dictates the limits of an experience with the SW.
I agree!
It's going to be really tough when one HW version performs remarkably better than the previous version, and yet they both claim they're capable of doing the same thing.
Remember that this has already happened once with the HW1 to HW2 transition (of course that one was odd since it took a couple years for HW2 perform better than HW1). Older cars will just stop getting updated.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,110
21,624
NC
It really comes down to the fact that you're reading milestones on the order page as the only thing promised

Because, legally, the stuff it says you're buying, when you click to buy it, is literally the only things promised


, and you're disregarding what's shown on the product page for various models like the Model 3.

Because as others have pointed out, there's no PROMISE you WILL get the stuff shown in that video you like so much.

There's hope, but not a promise in any legal sense.


I don't agree with this way of looking at it, but I acknowledge that people are doing this.

I assure you Teslas lawyers and accounts are anyway :)

I contend that everyone with the same hardware/software combo will get treated the same because hardware is what dictates the limits of an experience with the SW.

Depends what you mean by "treated the same way"

Everyone who paid for FSD before and after the March 2019 change will get whatever the most advanced version of the software they're able to do with the existing hardware- so that's equal.

Now- if that version can't do L4 self driving (and I strongly suspect it can't) the folks who bought FSD March 2019 and onward aren't entitled to anything for that fact. Because that wasn't one of the listed features they bought.

Feb 2019 and earlier buyers WERE promised that though- so they'd be entitled to some kind of compensation for it never being delivered.

2 bits of good news for Tesla there:



1) It'll be a minority of owners by that point.

2) It's only ~$3000 per person as FSD was cheap back then (EAP was most of the cost, and that's "done" and delivered)... plus if they've figured out a legit L4 setup with more advanced (not swappable) hardware they can also give owners the option to "move" it to a new Tesla instead of giving them a refund, potentially saving the company at least some of the refund money too.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pilotSteve

mikes_fsd

Banned
May 23, 2014
2,562
2,684
Charlotte, NC

S4WRXTTCS

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2015
5,713
6,848
Snohomish, WA
Now- if that version can't do L4 self driving (and I strongly suspect it can't) the folks who bought FSD March 2019 and onward aren't entitled to anything for that fact. Because that wasn't one of the listed features they bought.

Feb 2019 and earlier buyers WERE promised that though- so they'd be entitled to some kind of compensation for it never being delivered.

With FSD people are buying a work in progress.

This is really what Tesla needs to clarify with people who buy it. I would go as far as requiring the customer to sign a disclaimer when they buy it making sure they understand that it's not a promise that it will be capable of full-self driving, but it's the goal.

The video I like because it shows the intended destination of FSD on the product page of the vehicle.

At no time has the destination changed. It's always been full-self driving, and Elon has never waivered from that. He continued tweeting about robotaxis's and about earning money with your Tesla well past 2019.

I think the entire group of FSD owners are in for a rude awakening when they realize it won't actually be capable of L4 even in a limited fashion let alone L5.

We won't really know till then if I'm right (where Elon/Tesla treats everyone with the same hardware the same) or if you're right (where pre-Feb 2019 buyers get compensation that later owners don't get).

I don't tend to think of FSD as all that separate from EAP because the root of the failure likely impacts both. It likely won't even be close to enough to a trailing nines problem.

A failure of FSD to even be considered for autonomous driving very well could mean EAP fails to meet customer expectations. When you fail on EAP you fail on something where everyone was promised the same thing whether it was in the EAP package or in the FSD package.

It's easier to fail on EAP without everyone noticing because the human prevents the car from crashing. So even if its completely awful Tesla can say "but, it's there".

Right now we're not even at a point where TACC gets a passing score let alone EAP or FSD.

I think this is one of those conversations best left for later when things are substantially closer. Hopefully the next major release substantially changes things.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mikes_fsd

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,110
21,624
NC
We won't really know till then if I'm right (where Elon/Tesla treats everyone with the same hardware the same) or if you're right (where pre-Feb 2019 buyers get compensation that later owners don't get).

We kinda do know that though.

Pre-March-2019 buyers were promised a specific thing, during the purchase, that they aren't getting delviered.

They have a clear legal cause of action that would get them compensation. And there's a (relatively) small number of them- and they'd be owed a (relatively) small amount since FSD was much cheaper (only $3000 with car purchase) at the time.

Tesla could easily afford to pay those folks off.

The post-march-19 buyers do not have that same clear cut cause of action as they were promised a much narrower and more specific set of features.... and the cost to Tesla to refund all them (in much larger numbers, and for a much larger amount each) would be vastly more difficult for the company to take on.



I don't tend to think of FSD as all that separate from EAP because the root of the failure likely impacts both. It likely won't even be close to enough to a trailing nines problem.

Not sure I follow you here.

EAP is done.

It's already a delivered product that delivered every feature promised.

You might not, personally, find they work "good enough" for your personal satisfaction- but legally EAP owners got what they paid for.

Once an L2 version of autosteer on city streets is widely released- so have FSD buyers post-3/19. They may get more than that if Tesla can do it on existing HW but they got every listed feature they paid for already.


Only pre-3/19 FSD buyers are still actually "owed" something. (L4 self driving)
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: mikes_fsd

Peteski

Active Member
Oct 2, 2017
3,539
2,403
UK, Milton Keynes
We kinda do know that though.

EAP is done.

It's already a delivered product that delivered every feature promised.

You might not, personally, find they work "good enough" for your personal satisfaction- but legally EAP owners got what they paid for.

EAP still feels like an under-developed product to me. It's certainly much better than it was 2 years ago when it was unbelievably dangerous in certain common scenarios - eg. swerving violently when passing a left side junction (UK version). Current version is fairly benign but still suffers from the odd phantom braking event, general nervousness and irritating hesitation on lane change. Plus it soon falls over with a bit of rain. Being generous I'd give EAP a 7 out 10 at this point, up from about 4 out of 10 in 2018. Let's be honest FSD is still a complete joke. I'm a big Tesla fan and love all their cars, but FSD is not Elon's finest moment.
 

NHK X

Member
Nov 18, 2017
873
757
PNW
Timeline is definitely delayed but I’m still optimistic that the value of FSD will manifest in the next 1-3 years.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: glide

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top