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My prediction on Model 3/Tesla

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Professor Altman is an idiot. Terrible track record.

Now that's a good one especially since you did not even know who he was before I cited him. You know that as well as me so let's drop the BS games. You're not fooling anyone with this comment. It only shows how smug you can be to act like you knew him. As to your comment about him being an "idiot" with a "terrible track record" -- here's FACTS about his bankruptcy test:

From about 1985 onwards, the Z-scores gained wide acceptance by auditors, management accountants, courts, and database systems used for loan evaluation (Eidleman). The formula's approach has been used in a variety of contexts and countries, although it was designed originally for publicly held manufacturing companies with assets of more than $1 million. Later variations by Altman were designed to be applicable to privately held companies (the Altman Z'-Score) and non-manufacturing companies (the Altman Z"-Score).

His test is widely accepted by auditors, management accountants, financial institutions and even the courts! But his test is an "idiot" test when it comes to @Hitman007 Nostradamus.

While the personal attacks are entertaining I am jumping off this thread until Nov. 2018.

Again, you're lying to us -- and you again look foolish when you expect us to believe such BS. You're leaving this thread because you can't answer even one of my arguments with any facts, except to say I'm a "misguided soul" and Altman is an "idiot". Now there's some convincing arguments in reply to my facts. :rolleyes:

We also know that if personal attacks were the issue, you wouldn't have started this thread with one in the very first sentence:

I want to document this right now so that the Tesla cheerleaders

We also know two more facts:

1. Tesla will be solvent one year from now; and
2. You won't be back to this thread in one year's time.
 
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I want to document this right now so that the Tesla cheerleaders can jump all over me but then I can refer back to this post in one years time. The Model 3 will bankrupt Tesla. The bottleneck will get worse, the "cancelation of orders" dam will burst in the next 6 months (Americans hate waiting for anything) and that will be the beginning of the end. Once the stock starts the avalanche slide the end will be near. Its too bad because the S and X were doing well except for their own parts supply issues which still aren't solved. The automotive landscape is littered with the carcasses of cutting edge start up car companies. De Lorean, AMC, Fiskar, etc. Its a very tough business with huge entry barriers. People smarter than Elon Musk have failed. The 3 was pushed too hard too fast. They would have been better off quietly releasing it until they could actually do meaningful production numbers. They took too many folks deposits way too soon setting themselves up for failure. While you may read this and feel I am just looking for a fight or a reason to knock Tesla I am not. I want them to succeed and help change the planet and I guess in some way I am hoping someone important at Tesla can think about this and change the direction before its too late.

So... it is exactly one year later, would you like to give us cheerleaders an update on the impending doom of Tesla due to the Model 3 production?
 
One of the things I love about the written record is that it's always there for reference. Being wrong isn't a problem, so long as ownership is taken and future posts reflect the lesson learned. Without that, it'll be hard to give any validity to future claims.

I agree... everyone is entitled to their opinions but they need to own them.

OP was last signed in less than 48 hours ago and I suspect has a subscription to this thread.

I'm sure he would be on here crowing if Tesla had imploded, so he should be on here eating some crow considering the quarter Tesla just produced that was based largely on the success of the Model 3 launch.
 
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I want to document this right now so that the Tesla cheerleaders can jump all over me but then I can refer back to this post in one years time. The Model 3 will bankrupt Tesla. The bottleneck will get worse, the "cancelation of orders" dam will burst in the next 6 months (Americans hate waiting for anything) and that will be the beginning of the end. Once the stock starts the avalanche slide the end will be near. Its too bad because the S and X were doing well except for their own parts supply issues which still aren't solved. The automotive landscape is littered with the carcasses of cutting edge start up car companies. De Lorean, AMC, Fiskar, etc. Its a very tough business with huge entry barriers. People smarter than Elon Musk have failed. The 3 was pushed too hard too fast. They would have been better off quietly releasing it until they could actually do meaningful production numbers. They took too many folks deposits way too soon setting themselves up for failure. While you may read this and feel I am just looking for a fight or a reason to knock Tesla I am not. I want them to succeed and help change the planet and I guess in some way I am hoping someone important at Tesla can think about this and change the direction before its too late.

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and me waiting on @Hitman007 's response and 2019 predictions.

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I can recite all the "predictions" that have been made about Tesla and the Model 3. Each, in turn, has been proven wrong then a new one invented by people that simply do not want Tesla to succeed. Fortunately, there are plenty of people (some with a lot of money) that are in Tesla's corner to do everything possible to make sure they do succeed. I'd be right here saying Tesla was dead if the Model 3 had turned out to be a POS, but that certainly is not the case.

Here they are:

No one wants electric vehicles - Wrong
Tesla won't make it because it's impossible to start a new car company in this day and age - Wrong
Since you can't go anywhere in an EV the market is tiny and Tesla will never be a large company - Wrong
Tesla can't survive without government support - Wrong
The Model 3 will never be built because it's impossible to make a decent/profitable EV for less than a Model S. - Wrong
The Model 3 is just vaporware, Tesla won't ever build them - Wrong
The Model 3 will bankrupt Tesla (thanks Hitman007) - Wrong
Everyone is cancelling their Model 3 reservations because they're tired of waiting - Wrong
Tesla will never be able to build Model 3's fast enough to survive - Wrong
Most of the Model 3's are defective coming off the line and need to be fixed - Wrong
Tesla will run out of cash before they make a profit on the Model 3 - Wrong

The latest one:
Tesla will never be able to build the base Model 3 because the margin will be too low - We'll see about that.
 
I have mixed feelings on this idea that the written record forcing you to own your opinions is a good idea.

Historically one of the best ways to change a view was the debated argument followed by a cooling off period. You walked away and mulledover what was said and then you had the ability to escape yourself if you realized you were wrong.

But also everyone else soon forgot a lot of the details of different speakers so you didn’t get held down and dragged out for whatever you might have said and your changing stance was more readily accepted by both yourself and others.

So I am more of the opinion that’s it’s only good to dig up someone’s past statements if they try to double down on them.

But I worry just as much that people double down because their own past is as visible to them as it is to others...

It was just a lot easier to change my own mind about things back when I could let my brain forget some if how stuck in a stance I once was...

Just think about how important “forgetting” some things is for your own sanity, and well, also for larger society...