we do differ on thoughts on margin.
my counter: on model 3 they had trouble improving margins in q4. since then they cut prices, introduced lower-end models, and dealt with numerous delivery snafus. the lower unit count means the delivery infrastructure utilization was suboptimal vs last quarter. all of these factors produce drags on margin that are hard to overcome.
on model s/x i don't have a good idea of how much fixed cost depreciation or labor are in cogs, but again the combination of a price cut, fewer units, and suboptimal utilization of production infrastructure would all be margin drags.
there's a potential benefit from autopilot software upgrades as those get lumped into automotive sales afaik. so you could have some offset to margins from the one-time autopilot upgrades, assuming they don't separate that out as a one time item (i would expect not).
i doubt this will be a very popular model, but at least people can use it as a starting point from which to insert their own assumptions.
cash and balance sheets are extremely difficult to model and i would expect meaningful variances. on balance sheet, operating lease vehicles could decline due to more leased vehicles running off vs. leased this quarter.
on cash, i have not included an effect of drawing on inventory or other credit lines. it is possible ending cash balances fare better if they draw lines. tesla in general has a lot of large pieces that can affect the final cash that are hard to model - even cash from ops can be wildly moved by changes in how they pay suppliers.
i haven't been spending as much time on tesla lately so i apologize in advance for any errors. please reply if you see them. thanks.
… |
s deliveries |
x deliveries |
s+x deliveries |
3 deliveries |
3 production |
lease s/x % veh |
avg price s+x |
avg price model 3 |
|
revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
1 time autopilot |
zev credits |
total auto |
|
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services/other |
total revenue |
|
cost of revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services & other |
total cost of rev |
|
gross profit |
|
auto gaap ex 3 gm |
auto-zev ex 3 gm |
model 3 gm |
auto-zev incl 3 gm |
storage gm |
scty gm |
grohmann gm |
services gm |
|
opex |
tesla r&d |
tesla sg&a |
1 time costs |
solarcity r&d |
solarcity sg&a |
total opex |
|
op income |
|
interest inc |
interest exp |
scty interest |
other income exp |
1time scty gain |
pretax income |
income tax |
net income |
non-cont int. |
net inc to common |
|
basic shares |
diluted shares |
|
diluted gaap eps |
gaap net income |
+ stock based comp |
+ one time scty |
non-gaap net income |
non-gaap diluted eps |
dio |
dpo |
|
|
balance sheet |
current assets |
cash & eq. |
restricted cash |
accts rcvbl |
inventory |
prepaids+other |
total current assets |
|
op lease vehicles |
solar energy sys |
pp&e |
intangible assets |
goodwill |
mypower rcvbls |
restricted cash |
other assets |
total assets |
|
current liabiliites |
accts payable |
accrued liabs+other |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
cust deposits |
curr debt+leases |
curr solar bonds |
total current liabs |
|
lt debt+leases |
solar bonds |
rel party conv debt |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
other lt liabilities |
comm stk warrants |
capital lease oblg |
total liabilities |
|
commits/contings |
rdmbl ncis in subs |
conv senior notes |
nci in subsidiaries |
|
common equity |
|
|
cash flow statement |
cash flows from ops |
net loss |
dep/amortization |
stock-based comp |
am of debt discount |
inv write-down |
loss on disposals |
forex loss (gain) |
loss on acq scty |
non-cash int/other |
|
chgs in op as/lb |
accts rcbl |
inv / op leases |
prepaids/other ca |
mypower rcvbls + other |
accts pybl/accr liabs |
deferred revenue |
customer deposits |
other lt liabs |
net cash from ops |
|
cash flows from inv |
pp&e purchases |
purchase solar sys |
net cash from inv |
|
cash flows from fin |
stock issued |
debt issued |
debt repayments |
rel pty solar repaids |
coll lease borrowing |
stock option excrs |
capital lease paids |
stock+debt issue cost |
investment by nci in subs |
dist to nci in subs |
buyouts of nci in subs |
net cash from fin |
forex effect |
net change in cash |
cash & eq start |
cash & eq end |
[TD2]
luv q1-19e
[/TD2][TD2]
Dec-18
[/TD2][TD2]
Sep-18
[/TD2][TD2]
Jun-18
[/TD2]
[TD2]6,050[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2]
[TD2]6,050[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2]
[TD2]
12,100
[/TD2][TD2]
27,607
[/TD2][TD2]
27,710
[/TD2][TD2]
22,319
[/TD2]
[TD2]
50,900
[/TD2][TD2]
63,359
[/TD2][TD2]
56,065
[/TD2][TD2]
18,449
[/TD2]
[TD2]
62,950
[/TD2][TD2]
60,000
[/TD2][TD2]
53,239
[/TD2][TD2]
28,578
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.13
[/TD2][TD2]
0.13
[/TD2][TD2]
0.09
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2]
[TD2]
103.00
[/TD2][TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
104.80
[/TD2][TD2]
105.14
[/TD2]
[TD2]
53.50
[/TD2][TD2]
55.75
[/TD2][TD2]
56.78
[/TD2][TD2]
55.80
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,084,281[/TD2][TD2]2,540,646[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2]
[TD2]2,723,150[/TD2][TD2]3,532,057[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2]
[TD2]253,202[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,095,633
[/TD2][TD2]
6,323,219
[/TD2][TD2]
6,098,766
[/TD2][TD2]
3,357,681
[/TD2]
[TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2][TD2]105,317[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2]
[TD2]237,600[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2][TD2]294,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]550,000[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,068,733
[/TD2][TD2]
7,225,873
[/TD2][TD2]
6,824,413
[/TD2][TD2]
4,002,231
[/TD2]
[TD2]947,532[/TD2][TD2]1,850,532[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2]
[TD2]2,219,367[/TD2][TD2]2,807,985[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2]
[TD2]136,729[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2]
[TD2]
3,303,629
[/TD2][TD2]
4,786,248
[/TD2][TD2]
4,525,202
[/TD2][TD2]
2,666,654
[/TD2]
[TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2][TD2]124,754[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2]
[TD2]166,320[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2][TD2]205,800[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2]
[TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2]
[TD2]687,500[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,353,948
[/TD2][TD2]
5,782,973
[/TD2][TD2]
5,300,748
[/TD2][TD2]
3,383,301
[/TD2]
[TD2]
714,785
[/TD2][TD2]
1,442,900
[/TD2][TD2]
1,523,665
[/TD2][TD2]
618,930
[/TD2]
[TD2]21.0%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]21.0%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]18.6%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2]
[TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2][TD2]-18.5%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2]
[TD2]500,000[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2]
[TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2]
[TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2]
[TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,125,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,029,364
[/TD2][TD2]
1,106,908
[/TD2][TD2]
1,240,322
[/TD2]
[TD2]
-410,215
[/TD2][TD2]
413,536
[/TD2][TD2]
416,757
[/TD2][TD2]
-621,392
[/TD2]
[TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2]
[TD2]-122,000[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2]
[TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
-591,215
[/TD2][TD2]
231,956
[/TD2][TD2]
271,320
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,999
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2]
[TD2]
-611,214
[/TD2][TD2]
210,078
[/TD2][TD2]
254,673
[/TD2][TD2]
-742,706
[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2]
[TD2]
-611,214
[/TD2][TD2]
139,483
[/TD2][TD2]
311,516
[/TD2][TD2]
-717,539
[/TD2]
[TD2]173,000[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2]
[TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2]
[TD2]
-3.40
[/TD2][TD2]
0.78
[/TD2][TD2]
1.75
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.22
[/TD2]
[TD2]-611,214[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2]
[TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]-403,214[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2]
[TD2]
-2.24
[/TD2][TD2]
1.93
[/TD2][TD2]
2.90
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.06
[/TD2]
[TD2]
72.00
[/TD2][TD2]
49.13
[/TD2][TD2]
57.05
[/TD2][TD2]
89.67
[/TD2]
[TD2]
55.00
[/TD2][TD2]
53.72
[/TD2][TD2]
61.92
[/TD2][TD2]
81.73
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,119,615[/TD2][TD2]3,685,618[/TD2][TD2]2,967,504[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2]
[TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]192,551[/TD2][TD2]158,627[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2]
[TD2]888,764[/TD2][TD2]949,022[/TD2][TD2]1,155,001[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2]
[TD2]3,435,444[/TD2][TD2]3,113,446[/TD2][TD2]3,314,127[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2]
[TD2]360,646[/TD2][TD2]365,671[/TD2][TD2]325,232[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,954,468
[/TD2][TD2]
8,306,308
[/TD2][TD2]
7,920,491
[/TD2][TD2]
6,699,797
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,953,755[/TD2][TD2]2,089,758[/TD2][TD2]2,186,137[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2]
[TD2]6,238,682[/TD2][TD2]6,271,396[/TD2][TD2]6,301,537[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2]
[TD2]11,728,475[/TD2][TD2]11,330,077[/TD2][TD2]11,246,295[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2]
[TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]290,414[/TD2][TD2]291,476[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2]
[TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]65,226[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2]
[TD2]414,548[/TD2][TD2]421,548[/TD2][TD2]422,897[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2]
[TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]398,219[/TD2][TD2]396,835[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2]
[TD2]570,000[/TD2][TD2]571,657[/TD2][TD2]431,819[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2]
[TD2]
28,681,667
[/TD2][TD2]
29,739,614
[/TD2][TD2]
29,262,713
[/TD2][TD2]
27,910,000
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,624,297[/TD2][TD2]3,404,451[/TD2][TD2]3,596,984[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2]
[TD2]2,345,076[/TD2][TD2]2,094,253[/TD2][TD2]1,990,095[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2]
[TD2]586,126[/TD2][TD2]630,292[/TD2][TD2]570,920[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2]
[TD2]450,000[/TD2][TD2]502,840[/TD2][TD2]604,949[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2]
[TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]792,601[/TD2][TD2]905,838[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2]
[TD2]2,600,000[/TD2][TD2]2,567,699[/TD2][TD2]2,106,538[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2]
[TD2]
9,670,499
[/TD2][TD2]
9,992,136
[/TD2][TD2]
9,775,324
[/TD2][TD2]
9,141,362
[/TD2]
[TD2]8,600,000[/TD2][TD2]9,401,053[/TD2][TD2]9,669,879[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2]
[TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2]
[TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,634[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2]
[TD2]879,190[/TD2][TD2]990,873[/TD2][TD2]950,126[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2]
[TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]328,926[/TD2][TD2]455,762[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2]
[TD2]2,981,250[/TD2][TD2]2,710,403[/TD2][TD2]2,555,319[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
22,783,558
[/TD2][TD2]
23,426,010
[/TD2][TD2]
23,409,144
[/TD2][TD2]
22,642,887
[/TD2]
[TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]555,964[/TD2][TD2]551,264[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]834,397[/TD2][TD2]793,467[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,595,166
[/TD2][TD2]
4,923,243
[/TD2][TD2]
4,508,838
[/TD2][TD2]
3,906,421
[/TD2]
[TD2]-611,214[/TD2][TD2]210,078[/TD2][TD2]254,673[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2]
[TD2]457,411[/TD2][TD2]496,737[/TD2][TD2]502,825[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2]
[TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]37,857[/TD2][TD2]46,454[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2]
[TD2]31,134[/TD2][TD2]25,289[/TD2][TD2]13,885[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2]
[TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]28,722[/TD2][TD2]13,789[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2]
[TD2]10,000[/TD2][TD2]5,103[/TD2][TD2]-12,799[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]26,414[/TD2][TD2]16,408[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2]
[TD2]60,258[/TD2][TD2]189,371[/TD2][TD2]-587,594[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2]
[TD2]-185,994[/TD2][TD2]61,548[/TD2][TD2]-57,795[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,593[/TD2][TD2]63,662[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2]
[TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-145,010[/TD2][TD2]-2,953[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2]
[TD2]-579,331[/TD2][TD2]94,853[/TD2][TD2]718,277[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]122,244[/TD2][TD2]176,920[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2]
[TD2]172,399[/TD2][TD2]-106,156[/TD2][TD2]-33,449[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]85,734[/TD2][TD2]92,308[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2]
[TD2]
-297,337
[/TD2][TD2]
1,234,561
[/TD2][TD2]
1,391,281
[/TD2][TD2]
-129,664
[/TD2]
[TD2]-625,000[/TD2][TD2]-324,978[/TD2][TD2]-510,271[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2]
[TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-28,923[/TD2][TD2]-49,494[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2]
[TD2]
-655,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-365,009
[/TD2][TD2]
-560,965
[/TD2][TD2]
-682,817
[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]2,229,598[/TD2][TD2]903,348[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2]
[TD2]-930,000[/TD2][TD2]-2,135,815[/TD2][TD2]-842,526[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-82,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-216,081[/TD2][TD2]-142,568[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,777[/TD2][TD2]94,874[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2]
[TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-74,938[/TD2][TD2]-57,685[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-9,852[/TD2][TD2]-1,450[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]70,837[/TD2][TD2]113,260[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-48,793[/TD2][TD2]-68,966[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,036[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
-672,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-112,309
[/TD2][TD2]
-84,218
[/TD2][TD2]
398,622
[/TD2]
[TD2]58,334[/TD2][TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]-6,370[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2]
[TD2]
-1,566,003
[/TD2][TD2]
805,180
[/TD2][TD2]
739,728
[/TD2][TD2]
-436,470
[/TD2]
[TD2]
3,685,618
[/TD2][TD2]
2,967,504
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,119,615
[/TD2][TD2]
3,685,618
[/TD2][TD2]
2,967,504
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2]