New Model S "Plaid" Version Release in 2020

[tps5352]

For those of you who have experienced new update releases in the past, and seen their impacts on existing models:

• What is the likelihood, if any, that release of a new, premium ("Plaid") performance Model S later in the year will eventually affect new-car prices of the existing Long Range version?

Specifically, could we see any significant drop in the retail price of the Long Range version? (Likewise for the Model X, if you want to consider that as well.)

I ask because I am considering purchase of a new Tesla this year. (Still debating in my mind the merits of the two Models [S and X].) I will probably not consider the Performance or the new "Plaid" versions. However, I would be interested in knowing if prices may fall, for example, for the two Long Range model-versions (S and X).

Thanks for your insights.

 

[strider]

We don't know and Tesla is good at keeping things close to the vest until release.

The biggest question is whether the battery pack will be larger in the Plaid. This depends on whether they need more cells to get the discharge rate where they want it. If the Plaid version has, say, a 120kWh pack, that will affect 100D prices.

Regardless, I expect used P100D prices to fall when the Plaid comes out (P85D and P90D prices each dropped precipitously when the next model came out). I do not expect retail prices to change.

Buying a Tesla is like buying a new TV or computer. You just jump in when the time is right for you, knowing that a newer, better one will be around the corner. I definitely expect a 120kWh Model S and X before the CT ships, but that is sometime in the next 4 years (yes, CT will be late).

 

[FunSecured]

People are gonna have different takes and sure you’ll get varying responses, but here’s a couple of thoughts to consider...

So, we’ve got 3 Tesla’s and I honestly don’t pay much attention to the whole realm of price drops that are an eventuality, as Tesla continues to scale and reduce costs so they can reach more consumers.

We bought our Teslas with intention to use them and figuratively drive them into the ground and not with the notion of selling the cars and correspondingly, were not focused on what value we’d receive when we eventually do.

We looked at it more from an enjoyment perspective and too, from a financial / pragmatic perspective (paired).

For example on the S, as the miles go higher and higher - in the tens of thousands, I’m increasingly “righting the ship” on SAVING and the car ultimately paying -me versus me paying for it!

Every time I hit a super charger (with the “Lifetime Unlimited Free Supercharging” - which is available to anyone purchasing an S or X right now!) my Tesla is giving back...to me.

From an enjoyment standpoint...Every time someone rides in the car with me or my fam, I/we get asked a host of questions about Tesla and these friends/passengers are ultimately literally blown away by its features and tech and function.

Legitimately taken aback and amazed (where they’ve never seen anything like it and didn’t even know a car could do all those things). That’s really fun to just share with friends and people you meet, as its so new and exiting for them and us. Advanced summon, Sentry, Dashcam, showing the supercharger Network, etc...

Whenever we go on road trips or watch Netflix or play Cuphead in the car, or when we park and set Sentry mode and I feel assured things are safe with the car and what’s in it, honestly...these are little moments of contentment/joy/happiness that Tesla brings For us daily....(now) over and over and over again.

So, I guess what I’m saying is: one can always wait for the “latest greatest thing” and I’m quite sure Plaid will be just that! But...when we’re always looking to what’s coming rather than what’s available to us now, we can miss out on opportunity and advantages of the now (too).

Like with the lifetime free supercharging benefit and experiences you could have with the car right now.

Savings that start....now vs later. Not having to pay a premium price for a car that the features are largely going to be similar.

Sure Plaid will have feature and function changes/advantages but you’ll pay -more- for those little differences of course.

If you’re thinking in terms of waiting for the price to drop on existent S or X, sure that will eventually happen. That’s going to happen with ANY consumer good over time and so that’s a valid consideration. That said...in that consideration of not knowing exactly when the when is...and how much saving the savings will be...you should also consider the cost/benefit of the now though too I think.

The Model S and X right now are the best they’ve even been function wise, the most price competitive they’ve ever been price wise and free supercharging isn’t always offered on them and is a HUGE benefit. You could do WAY worse!

Tesla will ALWAYS be innovating and bettering things. That is part of the core nature of Tesla as a company and Elon as a person. They’ll Always be striving for the MORE.

So...there’s ALWAYS going to wind up being a carrot to chase...always a latest and greatest and something you can pay top dollar pay premium for, that a couple of years later, you’ll likely be able to buy “on the cheap”(er). That’s the nature of tech and new versus not so new and Tesla’s nature.

the great thing is...in these choices...there’s value in whatever choice you make with Tesla. If you want only the latest greatest and best....it’s coming (at some point) but you’ll pay more for it and need to wait a while. If you choose an S or X now...they’re amazing AND have added value right now cuz of lifetime supercharging. If you choose to wait and get a better price point on an existent X or S when the Plaid comes out, sure that could pan out well dollar wise.

Best wishes in whatever you do...

 

[Ande]

Yeah, it could, so NEVER buy anything cool or fun, always wait till the final, ultimate version, because until then, something cooler may appear.

 

[emmz0r]

If plaid will be a track cat, don't they have to do something with the cooling infrastructure so it won't overheat? What have they done to mitigate that except for the permanent magnet front motor?

 

[Uncle Paul]

Some people figure out why they should buy a Tesla, and others figure out why not buy.

Imagine that Plaid will be an extra cost configuration. They need to change out at least the rear clip for better handling, change the suspension, add another motor, strengthen up everything, develop new software, upgrade the battery pack and invertors, develop new cell technology/chemistry, train workers etc.

Imagine, at least initialy they will add a substantial cost for this option. Perhaps, over time, they will trickle down some of this technology to the long range models, but initially it should not negatively effect resale prices, except that I predict that many current owners will want to upgrade to this new UBER version.

 

[r1200gs4ok]

People are gonna have different takes and sure you’ll get varying responses, but here’s a couple of thoughts to consider...

So, we’ve got 3 Tesla’s and I honestly don’t pay much attention to the whole realm of price drops that are an eventuality, as Tesla continues to scale and reduce costs so they can reach more consumers.

We bought our Teslas with intention to use them and figuratively drive them into the ground and not with the notion of selling the cars and correspondingly, were not focused on what value we’d receive when we eventually do.

We looked at it more from an enjoyment perspective and too, from a financial / pragmatic perspective (paired).

For example on the S, as the miles go higher and higher - in the tens of thousands, I’m increasingly “righting the ship” on SAVING and the car ultimately paying -me versus me paying for it!

Every time I hit a super charger (with the “Lifetime Unlimited Free Supercharging” - which is available to anyone purchasing an S or X right now!) my Tesla is giving back...to me.

From an enjoyment standpoint...Every time someone rides in the car with me or my fam, I/we get asked a host of questions about Tesla and these friends/passengers are ultimately literally blown away by its features and tech and function.

Legitimately taken aback and amazed (where they’ve never seen anything like it and didn’t even know a car could do all those things). That’s really fun to just share with friends and people you meet, as its so new and exiting for them and us. Advanced summon, Sentry, Dashcam, showing the supercharger Network, etc...

Whenever we go on road trips or watch Netflix or play Cuphead in the car, or when we park and set Sentry mode and I feel assured things are safe with the car and what’s in it, honestly...these are little moments of contentment/joy/happiness that Tesla brings For us daily....(now) over and over and over again.

So, I guess what I’m saying is: one can always wait for the “latest greatest thing” and I’m quite sure Plaid will be just that! But...when we’re always looking to what’s coming rather than what’s available to us now, we can miss out on opportunity and advantages of the now (too).

Like with the lifetime free supercharging benefit and experiences you could have with the car right now.

Savings that start....now vs later. Not having to pay a premium price for a car that the features are largely going to be similar.

Sure Plaid will have feature and function changes/advantages but you’ll pay -more- for those little differences of course.

If you’re thinking in terms of waiting for the price to drop on existent S or X, sure that will eventually happen. That’s going to happen with ANY consumer good over time and so that’s a valid consideration. That said...in that consideration of not knowing exactly when the when is...and how much saving the savings will be...you should also consider the cost/benefit of the now though too I think.

The Model S and X right now are the best they’ve even been function wise, the most price competitive they’ve ever been price wise and free supercharging isn’t always offered on them and is a HUGE benefit. You could do WAY worse!

Tesla will ALWAYS be innovating and bettering things. That is part of the core nature of Tesla as a company and Elon as a person. They’ll Always be striving for the MORE.

So...there’s ALWAYS going to wind up being a carrot to chase...always a latest and greatest and something you can pay top dollar pay premium for, that a couple of years later, you’ll likely be able to buy “on the cheap”(er). That’s the nature of tech and new versus not so new and Tesla’s nature.

the great thing is...in these choices...there’s value in whatever choice you make with Tesla. If you want only the latest greatest and best....it’s coming (at some point) but you’ll pay more for it and need to wait a while. If you choose an S or X now...they’re amazing AND have added value right now cuz of lifetime supercharging. If you choose to wait and get a better price point on an existent X or S when the Plaid comes out, sure that could pan out well dollar wise.

Best wishes in whatever you do...

I agree with you......if it is the right time for you, just buy it......even if the resale prices go down a little, you will probably going to be paying 10k to 40k more for the new one if you wait......the speed limit is 65mph for all cars from VW Beetles to Ferraris.......My wife drives her 2019 Model 3 and loves it....She is a little more aggressive than me and manages to consistently have 175 kWh/mi, as opposed to my 190kWh/mi - 245kWh/mi....Her car is fun to drive....and with OTA updates, you are good to go.....

My new “S”, now with 100 miles so far, is bouncing between 190 and 305kWh/mi......I am happy with what I got.....we don't have a crystal ball, or we would wait till dooms day to but and miss out now.....I am sure my car will be just fine for years to come......thanks

 

[tps5352]

So appreciative of all these informative responses. Thank you!

To clarify, I think my most likely choices are:

1. Buy a Long Range version now, or hope that prices drop and buy a Long Range version somewhat later.
   
   
2. Buy a Model S, or buy a Model X. (Both are great. But each has some significant advantages, for me, that the other lacks. I want them both.)

 

[mikegre]

For those of you who have experienced new update releases in the past, and seen their impacts on existing models:

• What is the likelihood, if any, that release of a new, premium ("Plaid") performance Model S later in the year will eventually affect new-car prices of the existing Long Range version?

Specifically, could we see any significant drop in the retail price of the Long Range version? (Likewise for the Model X, if you want to consider that as well.)

I ask because I am considering purchase of a new Tesla this year. (Still debating in my mind the merits of the two Models [S and X].) I will probably not consider the Performance or the new "Plaid" versions. However, I would be interested in knowing if prices may fall, for example, for the two Long Range model-versions (S and X).

Thanks for your insights.

I returned my Model X when my lease ended on Dec 31, 2019. I'm taking delivery of my new Model X next week, also a lease. I lease because I don't want to gamble that my car becomes obsolete.

 

[tyler2323]

For those of you who have experienced new update releases in the past, and seen their impacts on existing models:

• What is the likelihood, if any, that release of a new, premium ("Plaid") performance Model S later in the year will eventually affect new-car prices of the existing Long Range version?

Specifically, could we see any significant drop in the retail price of the Long Range version? (Likewise for the Model X, if you want to consider that as well.)

I ask because I am considering purchase of a new Tesla this year. (Still debating in my mind the merits of the two Models [S and X].) I will probably not consider the Performance or the new "Plaid" versions. However, I would be interested in knowing if prices may fall, for example, for the two Long Range model-versions (S and X).

Thanks for your insights.

It will have a significant impact but the Price the Plaid will cost should be at least as much as the P100DL did at first ($165k fully optioned) and probably more, into the Taycan range but not quite.
However it will take 6-12 months before a huge decrease will occur. Unless of course Tesla decides to lower their new/used Raven Models significantly and immediately. Which is highly likely. But usually whenever a new Model of any Trim comes out it takes a yr before the masses really notice and don’t want an older looking car plus the huge addition of range will have the great impact as well as the interior. I hope Tesla prices it high just to prevent a huge decrease of all the older Model S’s. But history has showed they don’t seem to care much about the importance of repeat customers cause the huge price cuts they did with the P100D definitely lost them repeat customers and they also don’t care much if you have owned Tesla’s from the beginning. Which is something they could definitely improve upon

 

[mswlogo]

The way I look at it. The best thing for existing owners is that Tesla support and improve on it. If they didn’t, that’s what would make it depreciate the most. Imagine if they did nothing? It would get labeled as a dead platform, sales would gradually go down and generally lose its position.

 

[byeLT4]

Tri motor CT with 500+ range 70k, how much profit do they want on the Plaid S?

 

[cypho]

I predict that at lunch tri-motor plads will cost at least 40K over current performance price. Then over time, they will discontinue the cheaper trims, and lower the price of the remaining options until the plaid costs around the same as the current performance.

So it won't have an immediate impact on resale value of current cars on the day they start rolling off the line, but a few years down the road your car will be significantly less capable then the current offerings for new cars.

 

[FunSecured]

As Tesla reaches economies of scale, part of the methodology is to reduce cost such that the cars are more affordable and they can thereby acquire a broader/bigger customer base (as thus far, the vehicles have been out of reach financially for many).

While that can understandably be frustrating and hard for owners who don’t want to see their existing vehicles value diminish, if we want Tesla to continue to succeed and actually become profitable consistently, then that is kinda the nature, in part, of how it gets done.

I’d reiterate that for me, I try to pay more attention to the Value I’m getting out of the car (daily) as opposed to what a blue book “tells me the Value is (or...no longer is, as it were).

Unless buying a car with the specific intention of re-selling it (which is generally one of the most horrible purchase decisions one could make financially), I recommend to just enjoy and appreciate all the “great” that your car is...and drive it into the ground - in a way you just can’t do with gas vehicles, absent engine and clutch overhauls etc.

Long after a gas vehicle is at end of life, your Tesla will likely still be running strong and still giving you smiles.

I suppose part of why I don’t really worry about the potential descend of the monetary today market value of my car, is because I intend to keep it for as long as possible, in order to keep gaining value from it and have the scales, over time, financially keep tipping more and more in my favor.

The lifetime free supercharging helps me mentally in that (too!), apart from just plain loving my ride.

 

[croman]

verygreen already leaked that 2 new battery packs are coming (very) soon (redesigned pack without modules is what leaked -- better cooling AND new chemistry and expected >400 mile range for LR S). New revision to Raven suspension (already in code but hardware hasn't appeared). And some other goodies (integrated wireless charging just came this week). Tesla constantly changes things but Summer 2020 looks big.

 

[Beltsbear]

For those of you who have experienced new update releases in the past, and seen their impacts on existing models:

• What is the likelihood, if any, that release of a new, premium ("Plaid") performance Model S later in the year will eventually affect new-car prices of the existing Long Range version?

Specifically, could we see any significant drop in the retail price of the Long Range version? (Likewise for the Model X, if you want to consider that as well.)

I ask because I am considering purchase of a new Tesla this year. (Still debating in my mind the merits of the two Models [S and X].) I will probably not consider the Performance or the new "Plaid" versions. However, I would be interested in knowing if prices may fall, for example, for the two Long Range model-versions (S and X).

Thanks for your insights.

The plaid upgrade is different then others. It’s most probably going to be a super premium option and in my opinion will be $140k or more. If so, it will have near zero effect on existing non performance values. And the performance version might have a slight drop.

A 120kw battery priced at current levels would have more of an impact.

 

[Louiedog]

For those of you who have experienced new update releases in the past, and seen their impacts on existing models:

• What is the likelihood, if any, that release of a new, premium ("Plaid") performance Model S later in the year will eventually affect new-car prices of the existing Long Range version?

Specifically, could we see any significant drop in the retail price of the Long Range version? (Likewise for the Model X, if you want to consider that as well.)

I ask because I am considering purchase of a new Tesla this year. (Still debating in my mind the merits of the two Models [S and X].) I will probably not consider the Performance or the new "Plaid" versions. However, I would be interested in knowing if prices may fall, for example, for the two Long Range model-versions (S and X).

Thanks for your insights.

2017 MS owner here. LOVE the car. It's been awesome since the day I took delivery. Been thinking about a new S, but will certainly wait for Plaid to be released Why? 3 motors, more efficient motors, the most advanced battery tech and charge speed, the most advanced MCU, more power, bigger battery options, refined interior improvements, and, above all, a range at or above 500 miles. All worth waiting another 6 months for. Cannot wait to buy.

 

[tyler2323]

2017 MS owner here. LOVE the car. It's been awesome since the day I took delivery. Been thinking about a new S, but will certainly wait for Plaid to be released Why? 3 motors, more efficient motors, the most advanced battery tech and charge speed, the most advanced MCU, more power, bigger battery options, refined interior improvements, and, above all, a range at or above 500 miles. All worth waiting another 6 months for. Cannot wait to buy.

I agree which is why I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s near the Taycan price. Especially when you have a company tear down a Model 3 recently and say that hardware 3 is something they have never seen before and they are so far behind Tesla’s technology as the rest of the competition is

 

[2101Guy]

Im fine with that, since Taycans lineup starts at LESS than a fully loaded Model S

 

[Jjdsyd]

I’m approaching 3 years in my car. I don’t typically keep cars past year 3. The Taycan is tempting, but the dual gear setup and poor range are deal killers for me. If TSLA releases Plaid this year, but in the same 9 year old chassis and with the same interior, I am going to wait. I don’t need faster than 2.3 secs and my current range is sufficient. In order from them to get $200k out of me I’m going to need a genuinely new car with significantly better fit and finish.

I love my car but it is a 9 year old design and it’s time they devoted some effort to making it current. The Model S should be the flagship, like the 7 Series and S class.