Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I have just started reading this massive thread #goodlucktome, but have a question in the meantime.
I own _00 shares bought in tranches since 8/14 (slightly under water overall) and have been selling covered calls for the past 18 months, at least until prices went down so low with the recent share swoon. Nothing especially clever, but I have netted 10% of my long investment. Thought I had an airtight strategy, but it has suddenly dawned on me that I may have misunderstood the risks I was taking.
My question is "What percentage of in the money covered calls are exercised once the delta from current market price reaches $x or x%, vs. being held until the expiration date?"
After witnessing one of my covered calls go in the money several weeks before expiration, and then decline and never be exercised, I'm wondering if the risk of selling covered calls is higher than I realized. I had been thinking that the call would almost definitely be exercised once the market price exceeded the exercise price by ~$x or x%, but if usually held until expiration during a market updraft, there's a possibility the delta could be $10 or $15 (an amount exceeding the covered call premium), and I couldn't recover that delta by repurchasing at a lower price after exercise and market fluctuation.
Can someone please help me? :crying:
Could you reframe your question please? Of course you can lose money selling calls, and you can have your shares called away, but time decay works for you and not against you (as it would do if you had bought puts instead). Most options, both puts and calls are never exercised but instead are cancelled out by an inverse transaction (for example in your case buying back a call with identical expiry and strike, possibly at a loss). If your shares do get called away you can just repurchase at market price (the delta minus premium collected being your loss) to replace the shares that got called away.