No AWD for Model 3 until next year confirmed

[AnxietyRanger]

Except that it's in our interest for Tesla to succeed. I presume we all want Tesla to stay in business to push electric transportation. And regardless, we need them to stay in business for service and parts for our cars.

It depends.

I agree it is not in our interest for Tesla to fail.

That does not mean it is in our interest to become individual "victims" of Tesla's quarterly games either.

It is a balance. Just be aware and make choices that benefit yourself, Tesla is doing the same for itself.

 

[daniel]

It depends.

I agree it is not in our interest for Tesla to fail.

That does not mean it is in our interest to become individual "victims" of Tesla's quarterly games either.

It is a balance. Just be aware and make choices that benefit yourself, Tesla is doing the same for itself.

I don't think any of us is a victim in any of this. The contract we all signed without reading said Tesla would decide when to offer the various configurations. Tesla has adopted a strategy that it thinks will allow it to build the greatest number of cars in the shortest amount of time, which means that the model that was intended to be a more affordable EV will go first to the people who cannot afford the more expensive models, and those of us who can afford a more expensive version with more complicated options will have to wait for them to ramp up to those options. It also means that more people will get the car in its first year than if they built the most expensive trim lines first.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk, a known chrono-optimist, has tweeted his optimistic but probably sincere best guess as to when the rest of us might expect to get our cars. And if we do miss the tax credits, well, I say it's more fair that those tax credits go to the people for whom $35,000 is a stretch, than to those of us, like myself, who can afford to pay $80,000 for a supercar.

But I do agree with you that people should be aware of Tesla's intentions and strategies and make their decisions accordingly. And I think Elon would agree: Because as much as he needs Tesla to make money and get infusions of capital to keep operating, what he wants in the long run is an all-electric roadway, and if the thought of someone jumping to another car maker to get an EV sooner bothered him, he would not have made all of Tesla's patents freely available to any car maker who wants to use them. (Though IMO you'll have an inferior car if you buy a Chevy or a Nissan or even if you managed to find an old used Zap Xebra. )

 

[internalaudit]

What kind of household would consider $35k a stretch if financed over eight years? Fuel savings will make up for the interest costs and then some.

 

[SureValla]

Fuel savings will make up for the interest costs and then some.

In some places electricity is expensive and fuel savings are non existent. If you compare towards high mpg cars like plug in hybrids or regular hybrids the differential is smaller.

I personally will be paying more for electricity to charge my model 3 than I am currently paying for gas in my 45 mpg prius.

 

[daniel]

What kind of household would consider $35k a stretch if financed over eight years? Fuel savings will make up for the interest costs and then some.

When you can get a 5-year-old used Honda Civic for around $9,000, an entry-level Model 3 is a lot of money. Also, an 8-year loan is 5 years more than the typical warranty. And you're paying a lot of interest. You're probably paying $400 to $500 a month on the 8-year loan for that Model 3, but only about $100 a month on the used Civic. Yes, there are people who can afford $100/month but not $400 a month. Also, the amount of fuel savings depends on how many miles you drive. The more miles you drive, the better an EV is. You'd need to drive a LOT of miles before the fuel cost for that Civic outweighs the cost difference between those two cars. My 2004 Prius burns even less gas than the Civic and would cost even less, used, today. (The same conversation came up when the Prius was new: a 5-year-old used Civic, burning twice as much fuel, would still have been cheaper over the life of the car, than the new Prius. The fuel savings do not pay for the car. A used car is always cheaper. People buy new cars for reasons other than "saving" money. People who need to spend less make do with used cars.)

I am a total EV booster and a Tesla fanboy. But a used Civic is still cheaper transportation than a new Model 3, and yes, there are people who do not have an extra $300 a month to spend on a car.

Given the advantages of electric, and the wide enthusiasm for Tesla, there are plenty of people who desperately want a Model 3, but who just cannot afford it, and plenty of others who will get one but will have to stretch their finances to manage it. I applaud them for making the commitment to a cleaner future, and although I'm as greedy as the next guy, and I will take every deduction the tax law allows, I have to admit in all honesty that it's more fair for that deduction to go to the person who has to struggle to buy a base Model 3, than for it to go to me who can afford $80,000 for the P-AWD supercar version.

 

[ProphetM]

I'm one of those people who will probably have to stretch. The Model 3 will be the first new car I've ever owned and I'm under no illusions that I will be saving money buying it, versus keeping my used ICE or buying a newer used ICE. I'm a little relieved that AWD is coming later because it means my car will be cheaper. I wanted AWD but it was hard to justify it logically.

Hopefully I'm not missing anything here, but has Elon actually said any configurations will be coming later, other than AWD and Performance? I've seen people saying since the tweetstorm that the cheapest, lowest-optioned cars are now set to be the first produced, but I didn't catch Elon saying that anywhere. The roof options, tow package, tech package, cold weather package, upgraded interior if any, sound system, even battery sizes I have not seen specifically mentioned by Elon or Tesla as coming later. Just AWD and Performance.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I don't think any of us is a victim in any of this.

Many people on TMC have fallen victim to Tesla's quarterly pushes, for example.

But I do agree with you that people should be aware of Tesla's intentions and strategies and make their decisions accordingly.

All I'm saying.

 

[jgillispie]

In some places electricity is expensive and fuel savings are non existent. If you compare towards high mpg cars like plug in hybrids or regular hybrids the differential is smaller.

I personally will be paying more for electricity to charge my model 3 than I am currently paying for gas in my 45 mpg prius.

Can you show me the math for that? I suppose if you were charging only during peak draw times it's possible but I don't see it possible during off-peak hours.

 

[internalaudit]

When you can get a 5-year-old used Honda Civic for around $9,000, an entry-level Model 3 is a lot of money. Also, an 8-year loan is 5 years more than the typical warranty. And you're paying a lot of interest. You're probably paying $400 to $500 a month on the 8-year loan for that Model 3, but only about $100 a month on the used Civic. Yes, there are people who can afford $100/month but not $400 a month. Also, the amount of fuel savings depends on how many miles you drive. The more miles you drive, the better an EV is. You'd need to drive a LOT of miles before the fuel cost for that Civic outweighs the cost difference between those two cars. My 2004 Prius burns even less gas than the Civic and would cost even less, used, today. (The same conversation came up when the Prius was new: a 5-year-old used Civic, burning twice as much fuel, would still have been cheaper over the life of the car, than the new Prius. The fuel savings do not pay for the car. A used car is always cheaper. People buy new cars for reasons other than "saving" money. People who need to spend less make do with used cars.)

I am a total EV booster and a Tesla fanboy. But a used Civic is still cheaper transportation than a new Model 3, and yes, there are people who do not have an extra $300 a month to spend on a car.

Given the advantages of electric, and the wide enthusiasm for Tesla, there are plenty of people who desperately want a Model 3, but who just cannot afford it, and plenty of others who will get one but will have to stretch their finances to manage it. I applaud them for making the commitment to a cleaner future, and although I'm as greedy as the next guy, and I will take every deduction the tax law allows, I have to admit in all honesty that it's more fair for that deduction to go to the person who has to struggle to buy a base Model 3, than for it to go to me who can afford $80,000 for the P-AWD supercar version.

You can skip applying for the rebate, can't you not?

I would never consider a Model S because to me, I don't see the advantage of buying a $80k car just because it has instant torque, smooth and the coolness factor. I'm not a car person but I like the notion of being able to drive faster on the highway with very little toll on my pocketbook. That extra $40k I can just invest in select companies and most likely make some decent returns. I don't see overpaying for a neat car but I'm good paying $5-10k more for the M3 over a Honda Accord (CVT, turbocharged, direct injection that are fairly new and possibly less reliable).

Quality after the warranty period is still up in the air as cars with expired warranty are limited to 2012/13 year models.

I'm so excited with the prospects of used 3-4 year old Bolts, M3 and other EVs but I doubt they will be as cheap as their gas counterpart because of the decreased cash outflow during ownership in the form of gasoline/fuel savings (bump in incremental electricity bill). I will get a used 200+ mile EV eventually (maybe replace some ICE vehicles) but there isn't many options out there besides the Bolt and my daughter likes the Tesla brand's coolness better.

To be honest, if Toyota came with a BEV around the same time as the M3, I would seriously consider the Toyota BEV because the hybrid technology in our RAV4 is pretty good already and it doesn't take much to convert this to a BEV when battery costs have gone down (if at all). Toyota does mention they are researching on battery technologies.

 

[206er]

When you can get a 5-year-old used Honda Civic for around $9,000, an entry-level Model 3 is a lot of money. Also, an 8-year loan is 5 years more than the typical warranty. And you're paying a lot of interest. You're probably paying $400 to $500 a month on the 8-year loan for that Model 3, but only about $100 a month on the used Civic. Yes, there are people who can afford $100/month but not $400 a month. Also, the amount of fuel savings depends on how many miles you drive. The more miles you drive, the better an EV is. You'd need to drive a LOT of miles before the fuel cost for that Civic outweighs the cost difference between those two cars. My 2004 Prius burns even less gas than the Civic and would cost even less, used, today. (The same conversation came up when the Prius was new: a 5-year-old used Civic, burning twice as much fuel, would still have been cheaper over the life of the car, than the new Prius. The fuel savings do not pay for the car. A used car is always cheaper. People buy new cars for reasons other than "saving" money. People who need to spend less make do with used cars.)

I am a total EV booster and a Tesla fanboy. But a used Civic is still cheaper transportation than a new Model 3, and yes, there are people who do not have an extra $300 a month to spend on a car.

Given the advantages of electric, and the wide enthusiasm for Tesla, there are plenty of people who desperately want a Model 3, but who just cannot afford it, and plenty of others who will get one but will have to stretch their finances to manage it. I applaud them for making the commitment to a cleaner future, and although I'm as greedy as the next guy, and I will take every deduction the tax law allows, I have to admit in all honesty that it's more fair for that deduction to go to the person who has to struggle to buy a base Model 3, than for it to go to me who can afford $80,000 for the P-AWD supercar version.

How did you arrive at an 8-year loan for a $35k car costing $400-$500 a month?

 

[shrspeedblade]

Probably by plugging the numbers into a car loan calculator.

 

[internalaudit]

Even with usurious interest cost calculation that don't lower the principal balance,

3% x 8 = 24%
24% of 35,000 = 8,400

35,000+8400= 43,400

43,400 / 8 / 12 = $452/month but that doesn't include any government incentive yet


With the incentive, it's probably closer to $300-400/month at most when each payment really lowers the principal balance over the term of the loan.

 

[internalaudit]

I'm one of those people who will probably have to stretch. The Model 3 will be the first new car I've ever owned and I'm under no illusions that I will be saving money buying it, versus keeping my used ICE or buying a newer used ICE. I'm a little relieved that AWD is coming later because it means my car will be cheaper. I wanted AWD but it was hard to justify it logically.

Hopefully I'm not missing anything here, but has Elon actually said any configurations will be coming later, other than AWD and Performance? I've seen people saying since the tweetstorm that the cheapest, lowest-optioned cars are now set to be the first produced, but I didn't catch Elon saying that anywhere. The roof options, tow package, tech package, cold weather package, upgraded interior if any, sound system, even battery sizes I have not seen specifically mentioned by Elon or Tesla as coming later. Just AWD and Performance.

At least you don't keep harping like others that they are more well off and can afford an $80k vehicle while many really can't and are clinging to the incentive to make the purchase price work out.

I commend you for that. No need to talk down other prospective buyers. We each have our own priorities. Not everything is about blowing serious money on a car that is only incremental better than a M3. I actually would rather drive a smaller car.

 

[Garlan Garner]

At least you don't keep harping like others that they are more well off and can afford an $80k vehicle while many really can't and are clinging to the incentive to make the purchase price work out.

I commend you for that. No need to talk down other prospective buyers. We each have our own priorities. Not everything is about blowing serious money on a car that is only incremental better than a M3. I actually would rather drive a smaller car.

Nicely Stated

 

[206er]

Even with usurious interest cost calculation that don't lower the principal balance,

3% x 8 = 24%
24% of 35,000 = 8,400

35,000+8400= 43,400

43,400 / 8 / 12 = $452/month but that doesn't include any government incentive yet


With the incentive, it's probably closer to $300-400/month at most when each payment really lowers the principal balance over the term of the loan.

great analysis! so given these numbers, and the fact that the Model 3 will probably become technologically obsolete a lot quicker than some people expect (after all it's largely a piece of technology first, sexy green people mover second), it seems that leasing may be a much better route than buying.

 

[Garlan Garner]

great analysis! so given these numbers, and the fact that the Model 3 will probably become technologically obsolete a lot quicker than some people expect (after all it's largely a piece of technology first, sexy green people mover second), it seems that leasing may be a much better route than buying.

Unless you drive a lot. Leases limit mileage.

 

[eisbock]

In some places electricity is expensive and fuel savings are non existent. If you compare towards high mpg cars like plug in hybrids or regular hybrids the differential is smaller.

I personally will be paying more for electricity to charge my model 3 than I am currently paying for gas in my 45 mpg prius.

I find this hard to believe. How expensive is electricity in Shelton?

If we assume you are some kind of animal who waits in line to get cheap gas at BJ's for $2.25, travelling 215 miles will cost you $10.75. If we assume Model 3 has a 55kWh battery and also goes 215 miles, you'd have to be paying $0.20/kWh+ for electricity to be more expensive.

I mean, I know CT has some of the highest electric rates in the US, but damn. I guess I'm lucky in West Hartford where I pay $0.06 half the year and $0.09 for the other half (who came up with that pricing scheme?)

 

[eisbock]

great analysis! so given these numbers, and the fact that the Model 3 will probably become technologically obsolete a lot quicker than some people expect (after all it's largely a piece of technology first, sexy green people mover second), it seems that leasing may be a much better route than buying.

You also have to consider Model 3's primary purpose: being a taxi.

Leasing wouldn't work when if the Tesla network comes online and you want to participate. Too many miles.

 

[internalaudit]

great analysis! so given these numbers, and the fact that the Model 3 will probably become technologically obsolete a lot quicker than some people expect (after all it's largely a piece of technology first, sexy green people mover second), it seems that leasing may be a much better route than buying.

Why would it become obsolete unless it doesn't function anymore for the intend use of shuffling me back and forth?

I still drive my 02 Honda Civic - no ABS, crank windows, 5 M/T. I didn't sell our 11 Honda Accord even though it only has electronic stability control but lacked blind spot monitoring, back up cameras, dynamic cruise control. What is becoming obsolete are motorists' courtesy and road manners.

I started to teach my teenage daughter how to drive just this past weekend and explained to her I'd still much rather drive the Civic than walk and waste so much time walking 1-2 miles. She abhors it because the clear coat is peeling and there are rust spots in many areas. I love it -- back into any tight parking spaces, not be afraid of not yielding if I'm in the right of way, no need to go to car washes (just oil and filter changes).

I don't have time during the day to burn. The difference between driving and walking is night and day but the difference between a M3 and my Civic isn't that much but I still long to drive much faster on the highway, keeping up with cars on the left lane and not get penalized with much higher gasoline costs. That and the possibility of landing a job that requires driving 80 miles each way are the factors pushing me to get an EV. I am still not sure how Tesla quality will hold up after the warranty period but my daughter is enthralled with the coolness factor. Honda committed harakiri with the 80 mile Clarity BEV!

 

[daniel]

Many people on TMC have fallen victim to Tesla's quarterly pushes, for example.

What's a "quarterly push" and how has it victimized folks on TMC?

You can skip applying for the rebate, can't you not?

It's not a rebate. It's a tax credit. And I presume you can choose not to declare it. But as I said, I'll take all the tax breaks the government will give me. I merely recognize that a structure that gives it to those with less than me is fair.

You can also donate money to the U.S. Treasury. I think there might be a line on your tax form where you can pay more tax than you are required to pay. I have never done this and have no intention of doing it. I advocate a more fair tax system, and will continue to advocate a more fair tax system and vote for office-holders who, all else being equal, support a more fair tax system. But I will still pay only what I must. Why? Because any difference in what I pay is less than a drop in the ocean, but changes that affect the entire system can make a real difference. I'm willing to pay more when policies are across the board. I'm not willing to pay more when it's just me.

How did you arrive at an 8-year loan for a $35k car costing $400-$500 a month?

Probably by plugging the numbers into a car loan calculator.

Yep. And taking a wild guess at interest rates. Ain't Google wonderful?