Threads like this:
Letter to Mr. Musk from a 1-day old outdated Model S owner
If people know how Tesla plays the quarterly game, they can be a bit more prepared and informed when making purchase decisions.
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Threads like this:
Letter to Mr. Musk from a 1-day old outdated Model S owner
If people know how Tesla plays the quarterly game, they can be a bit more prepared and informed when making purchase decisions.
In our situation leasing has been amazing. Low monthly payment and we only put on about 6k-8k driving miles per year. I bike commute to/from work every day, and we only really have a car to accommodate my wife's 5-mile work commute and transporting our baby to play dates and doctor's appointments. Wife refuses to bike, public transit, or rideshare...
Not sure if we'll be into autopilot or the Tesla network at first, especially with small children to haul. I assume we'll have the option to upgrade to these and other features later on if we end up deciding that they're must-haves.
Just seems like earlier Model Ss have depreciated quite a bit from their MSRP, and given Tesla's commitment to innovation, a Model Y or later Model 3 should make the 2018 Model 3 feel a bit antiquated inside and out. Technology is just progressing so quickly these days.
Not sure if we'll be into autopilot or the Tesla network at first, especially with small children to haul. I assume we'll have the option to upgrade to these and other features later on if we end up deciding that they're must-haves.
Just seems like earlier Model Ss have depreciated quite a bit from their MSRP, and given Tesla's commitment to innovation, a Model Y or later Model 3 should make the 2018 Model 3 feel a bit antiquated inside and out. Technology is just progressing so quickly these days.
melindav
☰ 2018
they actually have held price better than other comparable ICE cars in their class
True, and awesome, but they're still a ways away from the original MSRP... which actually begs the question: what will the CPO Model 3 market look like in a few years...?
It's like a used German or some other luxury car. Used car buyers are wary because of potential repair costs and upkeep. Also the expensive fuel grade. Used car buyers are more frugal. Affluent buyers (and car aficionados) will usually want to lease a new car every so often.
Had the Bolt not been introduced or the M3 not coming out soon, I'm sure the MS would hold its value up more. As long as cheaper substitutes enter the market that offer 80-90% of the features, an expensive car will always take a huge depreciation hit.
Even at $45k USD for a used base MS, break-even analysis (fuel savings vs. potential repair) and economics would still lean towards the more dependable used ICE vehicle gas misers if all we talk about is cash outflow. Of course for those who want instant torque, skip oil changes, and charge at home, for now there is only the MS and Bolt.
But Hyundai and Kia will come up with BEV in 2018. So fun times up ahead.
Yes, but all cars depreciate like that. I would expect the Model 3 to behave like the model S. Don't forget the OTA updates that continually update the cars. The only thing that can become old and obsolete is the hardware itself. I don't see that happening as seem to fear since most of the "tech" is in the software not the hardware.
"Overpaying", like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. And "driving faster on the highway" always costs more where you are doing the driving in an EV or an ICE because energy usage goes up
I don't care what people do with their money. They're entitled to whatever spending they see fit. I am just saying I'm willing to go for a $45k EV but not an $80k one because I'm not filthy rich and I don't see the need to spend another $35k on a car that will have 10-20% more features that I don't require. That $35k is almost another EV!
Yes but it costs 2.5 cents / km on a M3 and 7.5 cents / km on our RAV4 Hybrid and our two other vehicles are less fuel efficient.
I don't mind paying a third of the incremental cost for driving a little fast. I'm not trying to be an a$$hole stunt driver, just want to keep up with the faster cars on the leftmost lane.
The penalty to me for driving faster in an EV is almost inconsequential.
I pay $0.16/kWh with no off hours price break and get between 45-50 mpg so the cost savings is certainly significantly less then I expected when I had a Saab 93 turbo charged motor that needed premium gas.
Now I have a Prius that runs on regular so the cost savings is there but minimal. We just have to remember that everyone's situation is different.
And my point is that you are welcome to have your opinion on the value of a Tesla vechicle, but that someone else is not "overpaying" when they decide to purchase a Tesla. It's a personal decision.
As to "keeping up" with cars in the leftmost lane, given Canadian speed limits any car can "keep up" whether it costs $30K or $100K. The Autobahn is a different story, but that's just Germany.
Keep in mind that you really can't use the Model S and Model X as examples of what the Model 3 will do. Though they have done very well, they are still high end luxury/premium vehicles and the Model 3 will be mid range premium vehicle. High end vehicles tend to depreciate a lot more than mid range vehicles. Some of that is simply that they have a lot further to go. I'm hardly an expert but I'm pretty sure that this is true.
But the X and S didn't have a tax credit that expired during their production. I think that could help hold up the M3's resell value a little.
If I buy a 40k (after tax credits) model 3, an identical car will cost 47,500 in 2 years since the tax credit will be gone. Higher prices for new models = higher prices for used models.
I think you didn't read my posts carefully. I always said I am not willing to pay $80k for car. I never quipped and wondered why people buy $80k and up cars. It's their money and I don't really have any right to say what is a right or wrong purchase for them. Heck, even my friend bought a Tesla in February.
You are missing the point. I said it costs a lot less to drive faster in an EV. Not really sure why you are going off tangent.
While 2017 Model 3's may be considered technological dinosaurs 5 ears from now, its deprecition may still end up preferred over that of similar ICE cars. What will the legislative and fiscal landscape look like in the year 2022? A 2017 car will not be up to emission standards, may well be kept from entering city centers around the world. It could see increased road tax, toll road fees, lower allowed speeds, spend huge amounts of time in highway traffic jams on the single ICE lane, etc, etc.
If you're going to buy a $35K car this year, the Model 3 may even do better in terms of depreciation than a really nice used Mercedes that's already gone from $70K to $35K.
I have little doubt that the first batch (200,000 cars or so) Model 3 will appreciate as they roll out of the delivery center. ICE cars famously depreciate. Because there are option on the market for used cars. Good luck getting a 2-digit mileage Model 3 under $40K before the end of the year unless you are an early reservation holder living in the US. Export it to the Middle East or even China/Europe, how much will you get for the Model 3?
If you're going to buy a $35K car this year, the Model 3 may even do better in terms of depreciation than a really nice used Mercedes that's already gone from $70K to $35K.
I have little doubt that the first batch (200,000 cars or so) Model 3 will appreciate as they roll out of the delivery center. ICE cars famously depreciate. Because there are option on the market for used cars. Good luck getting a 2-digit mileage Model 3 under $40K before the end of the year unless you are an early reservation holder living in the US. Export it to the Middle East or even China/Europe, how much will you get for the Model 3?
Not really what I am saying.
More like this:
As consumers we must understand that companies (Tesla included) have different motivations than us. For example they want to sell us stuff that will get old tomorrow. For them it is a lifeline.
We as consumers may not want to buy stuff that companies want to sell today. Perhaps we want to buy what they sell us tomorrow. But companies would like to sell is what they sell today - and they use secrets of future events as a way to lure us in...
So we need to understand and study the companies to avoid doing what the company wants us to do, but to do what we want to do instead. The company has different motivations than we have and a different set of knowledge.
Failing to do this work may lead to being a victim, if your internal expectations and the company's interests weren't aligned. Not every point in time is an equally bad one to buy a product.
On the plus side, at least Tesla doesn't completely drop the "victims". We will always have OTA updates to keep the car as fresh as possible even several years out. Other manufacturers have zero concern for their older vehicles.
Sure, software updates in Teslas are nice, though let's be real: other than the latest and the greatest, the Teslas are not getting that much love. I felt the Classic P85 more like go worse than get better through 7.x and 8.x that were not really suited for it, nor was the UI for Classics ever really fixed. Really a rather mixed bag. AP1 seems to be quickly fading into a similar mode. And once the current media unit is old hat, expect something similar there as well.
For the moment you have the latest and the greatest in Tesla hardware, the software updates are very nice, of course, because Tesla has a need to keep updating to sell new cars. But afterwards, once you are no longer representing what they are selling, it shows that it really does not make that much sense for the manufacturer to keep updating them beyond what is necessary or comes as a side product of updating the latest versions.
Oh and let's not forget the Performance models have actually become worse through software updates: Pack Performance and Launch Mode Limits... Realistic expectations and research are useful for the update angle as well.
Could you cast normal, everyday business practices in a more negative light? Sure there are companies out there that are deliberately misleading but I don't think Tesla is one of them.
All companies that want to survive have to do some sort of innovation. At one point or another what is current gets replaced by the latest and greatest. Companies have to make the choice when to do that and, regardless of day they decide to do it, someone will end up just on the other side of that line. That doesn't mean the company was keeping anything a nefarious secret, or that they specifically targeted anyone, or that it was anything other a regular business decision. The same thing happens thousands of times a day with just about anything else you can purchase. The only way to avoid it is to perpetually wait for the right time, so you can go ahead an do that, I'll wave as I drive by in my new car.
Could you cast normal consumer vigilance in a more negative light?
No, the only way is not to perpetually wait for the right time. The other way is to do your research, look past the company's agenda as best you can, and make educated decisions that is likely to serve your needs best. The chances of it working out are significantly higher than without. Understanding how e.g. Tesla operates its quarterly calendar is helpful.
I am advocating for the consumer nothing more than the company already does for itself. Do your market research, do your own marketing (or anti-marketing) and make a good deal.
SmartElectric
Active Member
As an early 2013 RWD Tesla S 85 owner and Model 3 reservation holder, my perspective on the Model 3 rollout might help:
1. My early S is indeed getting better with time. The software updates since purchase have added significant capability.
2. Here in Ontario Canada the Tesla RWD traction and stability control is outstanding. Good winter tires are mandatory no matter if you get AWD or not.
3. I will wait for AWD on Model 3 not for winter, but for performance reasons.
4. My expectations of the Model 3 are that it will be a lesser vehicle than even our early S in many ways, but exceed it in others (self driving).
5. If I didn't already own a Tesla, I'd be impatient waiting for the 3. I solved that problem by purchasing a CPO two years ago. I can wait for exactly what I want now. But if I didn't own a Tesla I'd have taken RWD or any other "limitation" to get in one ASAP.
6. My wife does not want to trade in her S. And I don't want to trade in my Smart Electric Drive. We may end up with three EV's in the driveway...
Good luck to new Tesla owners. It's lots of smiles even if your expectations are greater than reality. It doesn't take long to wash those concerns away when driving a Tesla every day.
1. My early S is indeed getting better with time. The software updates since purchase have added significant capability.
2. Here in Ontario Canada the Tesla RWD traction and stability control is outstanding. Good winter tires are mandatory no matter if you get AWD or not.
3. I will wait for AWD on Model 3 not for winter, but for performance reasons.
4. My expectations of the Model 3 are that it will be a lesser vehicle than even our early S in many ways, but exceed it in others (self driving).
5. If I didn't already own a Tesla, I'd be impatient waiting for the 3. I solved that problem by purchasing a CPO two years ago. I can wait for exactly what I want now. But if I didn't own a Tesla I'd have taken RWD or any other "limitation" to get in one ASAP.
6. My wife does not want to trade in her S. And I don't want to trade in my Smart Electric Drive. We may end up with three EV's in the driveway...
Good luck to new Tesla owners. It's lots of smiles even if your expectations are greater than reality. It doesn't take long to wash those concerns away when driving a Tesla every day.
