Non-owner First Production window just got pushed back

[jayhawk3]

Honestly, I still count Tesla having moved up production times so they're not even really late by normal Tesla times. They're actually early.

I take it you have zero experience in project management. If I tell the customer I am going to be done December 2018 but then revise my schedule to December 2017 the earlier date is what I am accountable to. I build satellites, this happens all the time. When I re-baseline schedule or budget the customer relies on the new number, not some OBE information that is no longer relevant.

The mental gymnastics this board uses to excuse piss poor execution by Tesla is simply astounding.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Hahahaha, are you kidding? People have been using that logic since July. Remember that exponential production curve Tesla hyped.

Best measurements we have is the production rate is increasing exponentially. Even beyond the very solid of more cars delivered in January than in all of 2017, gauging by VIN numbers that are being reported it looks like a good chance Tesla will hit 4000 cars built as a monthly total in February.

We'll probably have a better idea though after the investor call tomorrow (assuming Musk is done blowing @#$% up at Cape Canaveral by then).

 

[erthquake]

Hahahaha, are you kidding? People have been using that logic since July. Remember that exponential production curve Tesla hyped.

This is ridiculous, what good is a schedule if you just keep pushing it tot he right? I guess if the cultist customer base you have developed gives you a pass at the end of the day and says "See, right on schedule" after you bumped it 5 times then who cares?

Ramping cars is hard. It's an inexact science with a new, highly automated production line. It may be aspirational, but it's good aim the bar high.

Anyway, the ramp isn't exponential yet, but it's definitely more than linear.

Model 3 Invites

 

[smak]

I take it you have zero experience in project management. If I tell the customer I am going to be done December 2018 but then revise my schedule to December 2017 the earlier date is what I am accountable to. I build satellites, this happens all the time. When I re-baseline schedule or budget the customer relies on the new number, not some OBE information that is no longer relevant.

The mental gymnastics this board uses to excuse piss poor execution by Tesla is simply astounding.

It's always been, and never been more than an estimate. I suppose they could have never had a 3 month estimate window, and just made it 2018.

 

[206er]

I take it you have zero experience in project management. If I tell the customer I am going to be done December 2018 but then revise my schedule to December 2017 the earlier date is what I am accountable to. I build satellites, this happens all the time. When I re-baseline schedule or budget the customer relies on the new number, not some OBE information that is no longer relevant.

The mental gymnastics this board uses to excuse piss poor execution by Tesla is simply astounding.

But, but, but... Elon is changing the world!

Or maybe just rewarding early adopters at the expense of the mass market. Apparently ensuring that current owners have the full capability of parking S3X in their garages or driveways has taken priority over breaking newcomers like me, who simply can't afford an S or X, away from ICEs as soon as possible. Sorry, polar bears.

 

[gambit48]

I take it you have zero experience in project management. If I tell the customer I am going to be done December 2018 but then revise my schedule to December 2017 the earlier date is what I am accountable to. I build satellites, this happens all the time. When I re-baseline schedule or budget the customer relies on the new number, not some OBE information that is no longer relevant.

The mental gymnastics this board uses to excuse piss poor execution by Tesla is simply astounding.

None whatsoever. Just a customer.

That said, didn't Tesla initially project the Model 3 out to be 2020 or something like that? Very early on. Later, they then moved it up to 2017. That's why I count them as early.

Tesla isn't like your industry. They're brand new. They're basically the only game in town. Nissan is an established ICE manufacturer throwing trying out an EV. Tesla is a pure EV, trying not to be like a traditional ICE car manufacturer. Hence the stock price. And why you have to look at their past history, as there really aren't any comparables (Maybe Ford when it first started; but due to time/technology, even that isn't really applicable anymore). So, you see how they did with the Roadster, Model S, and Model X. That's what you have to base your projections and timelines on.

Looking at the X, being what, 2 years late? That's about what I expected for the 3. So they're way ahead of my timeline. And there's no way any reasonable person could have set a specific timeline as narrow as a month with Tesla. You can be hopeful, but trying to time a lease end date would be crazy.

 

[nvx1977]

Yeah original thinking was that Model 3 reveal would get about 15k total reservations, and they would ramp up to 500k cars by 2020. When they got over 100k that first night, they realized a few things:

1) They designed a car that was way more desirable than they could have imagined, and they have the chance to really accelerate the adoption of EVs.
2) Other manufacturers are going to take note of the potential of EVs and start ramping up their "electrification."

Moving the target to 500k in 2018 was always aspirational but worth shooting for, given the latent demand for the car. I say latent because they haven't advertised the car yet, instead doing the opposite: anti-selling it. They could grab so much more market share when they are ready to try.

 

[ent3ndu]

Ramping cars is hard. It's an inexact science

Assembling cars is a solved problem, isn't it? We've been doing it for many decades.

 

[WileyTheMan]

Well, my Dec-Feb time hasn't changed yet. I imagine it will when February runs out (which I fully expect).

 

[ℬête Noire]

Anyway, the ramp isn't exponential yet, but it's definitely more than linear.

Not linear. That's still exponential, for some nth power.

* It is of course a curve fit, so if you want to get nitpickie the an exponential is a decent best fit curve for what's happening.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I take it you have zero experience in project management. If I tell the customer I am going to be done December 2018 but then revise my schedule to December 2017 the earlier date is what I am accountable to. I build satellites, this happens all the time. When I re-baseline schedule or budget the customer relies on the new number, not some OBE information that is no longer relevant.

The mental gymnastics this board uses to excuse piss poor execution by Tesla is simply astounding.

I think you're comparing apples (mass produced cars) and oranges (satellites nuilt for specific customers). At the same time, maybe I'm wrong. If you're mass producing satellites and deliver to you customers based on the stock you have on hand, I'm impressed.

 

[jayhawk3]

And there's no way any reasonable person could have set a specific timeline as narrow as a month with Tesla.

Strawman argument. My original delivery window was Oct-Dec so we are really looking at a 6 month window...so far. Let me ask, at what point do you think it is absurd? Will you just keep defending Tesla at 9 months? 12 months?

 

[jayhawk3]

I think you're comparing apples (mass produced cars) and oranges (satellites nuilt for specific customers). At the same time, maybe I'm wrong. If you're mass producing satellites and deliver to you customers based on the stock you have on hand, I'm impressed.

I am not comparing either. I am saying that the defense people use "they are ahead of their original schedule" is ridiculous. If they had never updated their schedule and told everyone 2019 then they would be impressing the hell out of everyone. Instead they set an expectation and then failed, as usual.

 

[jayhawk3]

Ramping cars is hard. It's an inexact science with a new, highly automated production line. It may be aspirational, but it's good aim the bar high.

Anyway, the ramp isn't exponential yet, but it's definitely more than linear.

Model 3 Invites

It is actually a very exact science. You can get an entire education in it, it is called Manufacturing Engineering. My friend is one and he is trying to shave seconds off of assembly everyday. He can do this because it is quite literally an exact science.

 

[Compton]

It is actually a very exact science. You can get an entire education in it, it is called Manufacturing Engineering. My friend is one and he is trying to shave seconds off of assembly everyday. He can do this because it is quite literally an exact science.

Speeding up a single production line can be an exact science when the basic elements are in place. Outsourcing a large number of components from external sources and combining those to create something as complex as a new car is a stochastic process that you can't fully predict. At some point you find the true meaning of Murphys law.

 

[Compton]

Strawman argument. My original delivery window was Oct-Dec so we are really looking at a 6 month window...so far. Let me ask, at what point do you think it is absurd? Will you just keep defending Tesla at 9 months? 12 months?

Strawman argument. My original delivery window was Oct-Dec so we are really looking at a 6 month window...so far. Let me ask, at what point do you think it is absurd? Will you just keep defending Tesla at 9 months? 12 months?

I've been waiting for Star Citizen since 2014. That's a PC game. 12 months for a car doesn't sound too shabby in the grand scheme of things.

 

[ent3ndu]

Outsourcing a large number of components from external sources and combining those to create something as complex as a new car is a stochastic process that you can't fully predict.

There is absolutely nothing random about the supply chain. One of the most important jobs of a project manager is managing risk. It seems someone's doing an OK job of that -- we've seen it when the alcantara supplier dried up and bam, they had a replacement ready to go.

I'm trying to think of something in the same ballbark... maybe making blockbuster motion pictures. Ever watch the end credits roll and see just how many people work on a movie? And they still announce a date, and almost always hit it.

Don't mistake my saying it's a solved problem for me saying it's an easy problem, because it isn't. It's hard, but it's solved.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I am not comparing either. I am saying that the defense people use "they are ahead of their original schedule" is ridiculous. If they had never updated their schedule and told everyone 2019 then they would be impressing the hell out of everyone. Instead they set an expectation and then failed, as usual.

I think them being ahead of their original schedule is a valid point, and being behind their revised schedule is too. In addition, I think being mostly ahead/a little behind (Chevy Bolt) the competition is also something.

When push comes to shove, I'd rather they have aspirational goals they mostly don't meet as long as they continue to push the envelope in terms of EV design/production. Especially compared to existing manufacturers who seem to do a better job hitting their goals, but aren't making as much progress on EVs overall, especially given their resources compared to Tesla.

 

[MoMini]

Another data point:

Non-owner, online 3/31 (before the reveal, about 2 minutes after online opened).
First Production Jan - Mar 2018.
(Selected) Standard Battery Early 2018.
Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive Oct - Dec 2018

I'm in the same boat, about the same time and Selection. So... What do you think "Early" 2018 means? I''m pretty sure it's not January. ::smirk:: I would think it means Jan - Mar. Much after that and we're into "Mid-2018" territory, no?

 

[geometro]

The mental gymnastics this board uses to excuse piss poor execution by Tesla is simply astounding.

Gold medalists here, baby! Just in time for the Olympics too.