Non-owner First Production window just got pushed back

[geometro]

I'm in the same boat, about the same time and Selection. So... What do you think "Early" 2018 means? I''m pretty sure it's not January. ::smirk:: I would think it means Jan - Mar. Much after that and we're into "Mid-2018" territory, no?

“Early” is prior to 7/1
“Mid” is prior to 12/31
“Late 2018” is 2019

 

[insaneoctane]

I almost didn't bother replying here, but here goes...

• Tesla has been over zealous with their ramp predictions. They choose to "lean forward" to try and push the envelope. Everything would have to go perfectly for it to work. It doesn't usually make for good customer or investor confidence, but it does push the team as fast as they can move. It pisses some people off.
• Deal with it. Sure, vent in these forums. Write Elon via Twitter. Whatever. Tesla decided this was the approach to motivate the team. Sell your stock if you think this makes Tesla a bad company or investment.
• Tesla is not traditional. I suspect that fact actually attracts you to their products and other business practices.
• Your car is coming.

Hey, I'm impatient and want my Tesla too. I was even one of the minorities that was really disappointed with Tesla over Alcantaragate. That pissed me off. But, the sun will rise tomorrow and Tesla will deliver my car way before any other manufacturer even has a compelling product.

 

[Flekoun]

Assembling cars is a solved problem, isn't it? We've been doing it for many decades.

You mean like sending spaceships to orbit, right? Should be solved problem, we have been doing it for decades....think again.

 

[ℬête Noire]

There is absolutely nothing random about the supply chain. One of the most important jobs of a project manager is managing risk. It seems someone's doing an OK job of that -- we've seen it when the alcantara supplier dried up and bam, they had a replacement ready to go.

"Managing risk" is all about dealing with unforeseen *sugar* (known unknowns and unknown unknowns), AKA "random", that happens in a feasible manner. As in you can't afford EVERY contingency, you do your best to estimate what's most likely and what's most cost effective (balancing time, money, quality to whatever levels are your priorities).

I'm trying to think of something in the same ballbark... maybe making blockbuster motion pictures. Ever watch the end credits roll and see just how many people work on a movie? And they still announce a date, and almost always hit it.

Don't mistake my saying it's a solved problem for me saying it's an easy problem, because it isn't. It's hard, but it's solved.

Movies, beside being a terrible match-up because again it's the same 1 vs 1 million units produced difference, often sit in the can (completed, not distributed) for a while before those dates. That's building in a bunch of slack. Besides a lot of the work already being done before committing to a date.

The "solved" part of the solution is "be publicly non-specific as long as you can and pad like a MOFO". So the "solution" on this web page would have been written as "coming sometime, you'll get it when we're done".....well, actually it'd be to not have the page at all.

A bit more transparency than you're used to can be a confusing thing. EDIT: Especially when, because they are publicly traded, they still have to be somewhat guarded about what they release. Please try to adjust.

 

[ent3ndu]

"be publicly non-specific as long as you can and pad like a MOFO". So the "solution" on this web page would have been written as "coming sometime, you'll get it when we're done".....well, actually it'd be to not have the page at all.

We agree more than we disagree. Slippage is going to happen, but it's a noob mistake to quote timelines without appropriate padding. So either Tesla is naively quoting best-case timelines to the public, or the slippage is worse than expected. Given the Model X launch, you'd think Tesla could learn from the past.

A bit more transparency than you're used to can be a confusing thing.

That's extremely generous to consider delivery estimates "transparency". Real transparency would be information about what's holding up the line, what's causing quality defects, and real actual delivery estimates -- Tesla wants the goodwill associated with transparency without actually being transparent.

 

[ℬête Noire]

That's extremely generous to consider delivery estimates "transparency".

"A bit more transparency than you're used to" isn't generous, it is exactly what it is.

Real transparency would be information about what's holding up the line, what's causing quality defects, and real actual delivery estimates...

You cut out the context that covers this, on top of ignoring my wording that makes it crystal clear I'm talking about relatives terms. You're veering into false dichotomy territory here. Especially when you consider that they've been willing to talk about some challenges they've had. However expecting to provide detailed reports real-time, when they are probably struggling to understand it themselves?

Bottom line is that its more transparency than typical. They've been hanging key parts of the planning timeline estimates out there to the world.

 

[ent3ndu]

You seem to be confused about what "transparency" means. An estimate isn't transparency by any definition of the word.

when they are probably struggling to understand it themselves?

Full circle back to my original post: car manufacturing is solved. The end. That is not a debatable point. If manufacturing issues are causing delays, and they're struggling to understand why, they're incompetent. I don't believe Tesla is incompetent. Instead, I believe this is 100% a communication/overconfidence problem (NB: that's the opposite of transparency).

 

[erthquake]

Assembling cars is a solved problem, isn't it? We've been doing it for many decades.

A newly designed and installed (highly-automated) assembly line isn't a solved problem until production is at full capacity.

 

[ent3ndu]

To expand on what I'm saying about car assembly being solved, take a look at the Bolt rollout plan: Chevrolet Bolt State-By-State Rollout Schedule Straight From General Motors

They expected CA to have Bolts by December, and the dealers did. First customer deliveries by Christmas.

 

[SMAlset]

People who reserved early knew this was a car not in production yet, the robots hadn't been programmed and tweaked, that parts can fail or not come in on time (they've already been replacing some parts if you read the threads on here as problems have been encountered), the logistics for all of this has never been done by them at this scale, etc. so I don't get all the negative comments on here about not being able to accurately predict a delivery estimate. Not only that but they had no idea how many employees and owners would want a Model 3 or which version they would chose. People deciding to skip to Standard or AWD freed up slots for 1st Production. And whereas new S/X owners came online and put their reservations in further adjusting the line.

I've looked at the spreadsheet with just the TMC reservation holders that have decided to participate and clearly a lot of people have already received their cars and I'm sure we are a small subset. When we aren't quickly seeing new Model 3s filling up the parking lot for delivery and hear about a mandatory part replacement, you can see why the estimates get moved back. No one wants cars to continue going out if there's something to replace and better for them, owners and future owners that it gets done as soon as possible. Be thankful that the time working out the bugs now will hopefully give you a better ownership experience later, especially if Service Centers are crowded and booked for weeks out.

It also makes total sense to me to not push everyone back in the timeline, seen that comment too. If they are able to continue ramping up all things being good and meet their goals, the number of cars manufactured each week could change alot so why send out more changed estimates before you have a better handle on future shipments.

 

[ent3ndu]

the robots hadn't been programmed and tweaked, that parts can fail or not come in on time [...], the logistics for all of this has never been done by them at this scale, etc. so I don't get all the negative comments on here about not being able to accurately predict a delivery estimate.

In October of last year, Tesla told investors:

It is important to emphasize that there are no fundamental issues with the Model 3 production or supply chain. We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term.

That is a very clear message, by people authorized to make it, in as official a forum as exists. If we can't depend on that, we can't depend on anything.

 

[erthquake]

To expand on what I'm saying about car assembly being solved, take a look at the Bolt rollout plan: Chevrolet Bolt State-By-State Rollout Schedule Straight From General Motors

They expected CA to have Bolts by December, and the dealers did. First customer deliveries by Christmas.

Using an off-the-shelf electronics suite designed and made by LG, and not automated to the degree the Model 3 line is. The Model 3 line has robots installing the dash and seats. Are there any other lines that do that? Certainly the unions won't let GM get away with that.

Also, people weren't/aren't hyper-watching GM's development and ramp of the Bolt like they are with the Model 3.

 

[SMAlset]

To expand on what I'm saying about car assembly being solved, take a look at the Bolt rollout plan: Chevrolet Bolt State-By-State Rollout Schedule Straight From General Motors

They expected CA to have Bolts by December, and the dealers did. First customer deliveries by Christmas.

But hasn't the Bolt been in production for a while now? I understand they weren't selling all that great during the year and were heavily discounted causing a rush among some looking for a car to rush to buy what was out there. Also read that their current numbers are about the same as they were same time last year if I'm not mistaken. So not really seeing 400,000+ line waiters for their car.

 

[erthquake]

But hasn't the Bolt been in production for a while now? I understand they weren't selling all that great during the year and were heavily discounted causing a rush among some looking for a car to rush to buy what was out there. Also read that their current numbers are about the same as they were same time last year if I'm not mistaken. So not really seeing 400,000+ line waiters for their car.

The Model 3 has already outsold the Bolt in January monthly sales.

 

[SMAlset]

In October of last year, Tesla told investors:


That is a very clear message, by people authorized to make it, in as official a forum as exists. If we can't depend on that, we can't depend on anything.

October was certainly at the beginning of their push to produce lines. Lots of unknowns at that point even if they thought the robotics were where they wanted them to be set.

Are you a reservation holder?

 

[ent3ndu]

Using an off-the-shelf electronics suite designed and made by LG, and not automated to the degree the Model 3 line is.

It got cars in people's hands at a palatable price point. Sounds like a win to me.

But hasn't the Bolt been in production for a while now?

That link was for their first model year (MY2017, calendar 2016). But Bolt was built on the Sonic's manufacturing line which I'm certain helped substantially. That said, they nailed their delivery timeline perfectly, even with the most important parts being made overseas by a partner.

Lots of unknowns at that point

Again, Tesla themselves said at the time, "We understand what needs to be fixed and we are confident of addressing the manufacturing bottleneck issues in the near-term."

"Elon Musk needs to stop overpromising and underdelivering" is a phrase nobody should be able to argue with.

Are you a reservation holder?

Yes; online, pre-reveal. I'm a huge fan of the tech but not sold on the way the business is run.

 

[ℬête Noire]

A newly designed and installed (highly-automated) assembly line isn't a solved problem until production is at full capacity.

Not even that. Just a new installation of a very large project of any kind is an exercise in frantic discovery of "what the fudge is going on?". Even in relatively stable fields.

This "...car manufacturing is solved. The end." is clueless gibberish from ent3ndu, so far disconnected from reality that I don't see how it's worth the hassle to try interact with....

P.S. Now to see if the board has the ability to filter gibberish spouting fools. EDIT: Ah, there it is right on the pop-up from the poster's name.

 

[ent3ndu]

I really don't understand the pushback. Why are you trying to sell how harrrrrd the process is when tesla themselves has only said, there have been problems and we know what they are and we're fixing it. If you believe what Tesla says, it's allll good, man. People far more important/knowledgable than me have gotten on Elon to be more realistic. I'm not saying anything controversial here.

I'm personally affected because I have to buy a car in the next 60 days, and I'd love for that to be a Model 3. If my reservation estimates were accurate, that would be no problem. But now I'm here and not sure what to do because Tesla isn't being transparent about realistic delivery dates. I'm not the only one, I've seen this story all over.

Some of this is me being an old man; we live in a Kickstarter world where handing over your cash maybe results in the thing you want, maybe not, almost inevitably some subset of what you were promised and 20 months late, if ever. I hate that. I hate when Apple announces New Great Thing, available next year sometime. We've collectively become OK with people & companies selling us stuff without having built the stuff first. I dunno, maybe it's just me.

 

[C141medic]

I really don't understand the pushback. Why are you trying to sell how harrrrrd the process is when tesla themselves has only said, there have been problems and we know what they are and we're fixing it. If you believe what Tesla says, it's allll good, man. People far more important/knowledgable than me have gotten on Elon to be more realistic. I'm not saying anything controversial here.

I'm personally affected because I have to buy a car in the next 60 days, and I'd love for that to be a Model 3. If my reservation estimates were accurate, that would be no problem. But now I'm here and not sure what to do because Tesla isn't being transparent about realistic delivery dates. I'm not the only one, I've seen this story all over.

Some of this is me being an old man; we live in a Kickstarter world where handing over your cash maybe results in the thing you want, maybe not, almost inevitably some subset of what you were promised and 20 months late, if ever. I hate that. I hate when Apple announces New Great Thing, available next year sometime. We've collectively become OK with people & companies selling us stuff without having built the stuff first. I dunno, maybe it's just me.

I totally hear what you’re saying. It can be frustrating to expect something at a certain date and to have that date delayed for whatever reason. Especially if you’re in need of a vehicle sooner than later I’d imagine that would certainly add to the frustration. Fortunately, in my case the M3 is not a vehicle I need as I already have other vehicles. I’m getting the M3 because I believe in Tesla and like to drive electric.
On the other hand, I placed a deposit almost 2 years ago with the understanding that it may take a while to receive my M3 and I’m personally okay with that. If I needed a vehicle now, however; I’d definitely consider a used/cpo Model S or perhaps leasing a new Leaf or even the new Volvo XC40. Good luck. Hope we all get some news after the earnings call after the closing bell today.

 

[David L]

My Model 3 delivery estimates have been pushed back further after the earnings announcement. I'm a non-owner line waiter. It used to be Dec. to Feb. for first production and early '18 for SR, but now its...

I guess my plans to get SR w/PUP in the first half of '18 may not happen after all. I'm still trying to figure out what to do.