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Norcal heat wave

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normally run TBC with 20% reserve and have participated in the last 3 VPPs. today i decided it was too hairy and set my reserve to 100%. around 8PM i set the reserve to 85% and discharged a little, but beyond that i'm chicken. i see there were some big outages in livermore earlier today and now there seem to be some outages in san ramon and up on skyline in oakland. so i guess i'll hold at 85%.

i think the real fun will come tomorrow when everyone is back at work (or whatever passes for back at work these days)
 
What's funny is everyone participates in VPP when they don't expect outages, but once the outages start, no one or far less people wants in for obvious reasons. I guess since no one is locked in, safe to get in or out based on what's happening since no cost/risk to do that.

Guess I'll try flipping the switch, but seems like a real one would be nicer to really test.
 
I wonder why they don't install more wind power so that when the sun goes down they aren't impacted as much. With all the outages happening today, tomorrow should be interesting.
At these really hot temps wind stops because the temp gradient is not there. It was hot nearly all the way to the ocean. It was dead calm and 106 yesterday here in the Tri-Valley. 110 today. Stayed up into the 90s even at midnight. Usually, the Central valley is 100 and we are closer to 65 at night and you get a flow of cooler air streaming pass the windmills up on the Altamont pass.

Here are the wind speeds for the Altamont pass for the past few days. If you check out the various days, you can see the speed drop like a rock as the heat builds in.
 
Do they take solar production and VPP into consideration when determining where to have rolling blackouts? I.e., if there is a lot of solar production in a certain area, having a blackout in that area could be more detrimental than having a blackout in an area of low solar production.
 
So they’re forecasting peak demand today of 51.1 MW and peak supply of edit: 52.5 MW.

And ya’ll going to VPP?
At the moment, there isn't a VPP event showing in the app for today, but in the very likely event that one does happen than I am 95% yes.

I was questioning this yesterday when around 4:00pm outages hit nearby to me in Morgan Hill and San Martin that lasted about 6 hours from the Nextdoor posts for most, with a couple of small blocks with 3-10 homes on the outage map this morning.. The area that I am in was built up less than 20 years ago and is all underground, so I think the reliability should be good. Since my PTO in Oct 2020, the longest outage was only an hour.

If I am feeling nervous, I might move my reserve from 5% to 35% which which should keep everything but the A/C that isn't backup up anyway (LRA is too high) working until the sun comes back up in the morning.
 
At the moment, there isn't a VPP event showing in the app for today, but in the very likely event that one does happen than I am 95% yes.

I was questioning this yesterday when around 4:00pm outages hit nearby to me in Morgan Hill and San Martin that lasted about 6 hours from the Nextdoor posts for most, with a couple of small blocks with 3-10 homes on the outage map this morning.. The area that I am in was built up less than 20 years ago and is all underground, so I think the reliability should be good. Since my PTO in Oct 2020, the longest outage was only an hour.

If I am feeling nervous, I might move my reserve from 5% to 35% which which should keep everything but the A/C that isn't backup up anyway (LRA is too high) working until the sun comes back up in the morning.
And the VPP event for today 9/6 was just added. Discharge hours are the same as yesterday from 6:00-9:00pm with charging from 9:15am-4:00pm.
 
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Wow California is just crushing the day-ahead forecast so far through noon today. But CAISO still thinks we'll be pretty close to their forecasted peak by 6pm. 🤔

1662491307044.png
 
Have noted over the years wind in the upper-Midwest has been reliably good during our heat waves. It is also generally our best land-wind area.

However, the CAISO/Western interconnection region does not connect into the Dakotas and Nebraska where much of this wind is. Would be nice to build strong interconnects into that region.

EDD20FF9-4CA7-4AEA-8C1B-34E7778F0EE4.png

Wind Map


interconnections_map_1024x439.jpg
 
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