OFFICIAL BUTTON WATCH

[Knightshade]

Thanks, I should have just checked their web site to remind myself.

I would say the only useful features in the list are NoA and auto lane change. I still can't imagine anyone buying an FSD subscription for those features alone. Then again, I paid full price for FSD on two cars so apparently people are stupid.

Well, the idea is people who definitely would NOT pay $10,000 for those features MIGHT just pay $199 a month for em (or whatever it comes out to be).

If it's genuinely a no-commitment deal for example I'd expect they'll get at least SOME added revenue from folks who turn it on for a given month they're taking a long trip or something once or twice a year at a minimum but would've given them $0.00 ever if it was a single 10k purchase.

 

[Tarpan]

Well, the idea is people who definitely would NOT pay $10,000 for those features MIGHT just pay $199 a month for em (or whatever it comes out to be).

If it's genuinely a no-commitment deal for example I'd expect they'll get at least SOME added revenue from folks who turn it on for a given month they're taking a long trip or something once or twice a year at a minimum but would've given them $0.00 ever if it was a single 10k purchase.

I am folks.

 

[dckiwi]

Well, the idea is people who definitely would NOT pay $10,000 for those features MIGHT just pay $199 a month for em (or whatever it comes out to be).

If it's genuinely a no-commitment deal for example I'd expect they'll get at least SOME added revenue from folks who turn it on for a given month they're taking a long trip or something once or twice a year at a minimum but would've given them $0.00 ever if it was a single 10k purchase.

Yeah, I think you're right. It would still be weird to announce an FSD subscription (with all the related press) and then roll out actual FSD a month later.

 

[powertoold]

Yeah, I think you're right. It would still be weird to announce an FSD subscription (with all the related press) and then roll out actual FSD a month later.

Elon just tweeted that the button and subscription will be released "same timing."

 

[dckiwi]

Elon just tweeted that the button and subscription will be released "same timing."

View attachment 653810

Which would make sense. But he then corrected himself a few minutes later and said the subscription is 'definitely' coming in May, with the FSD Beta wide release in May or June.

What a mess.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Elon just tweeted that the button and subscription will be released "same timing."

View attachment 653810

And then contradicted himself with the "aspirational" "no later than June" tweet as you (?) pointed out.

Note he did not specify the year! Remember the "almost zero COVID cases in April" tweet! Looks like he might be right in April 2022 on that, so perhaps we should infer that in this specific case he means June 2023 for The Button?

 

[Knightshade]

Part of the problem was in ever calling what is being narrow beta tested "FSD"

It's not.

It's the last, specifically named, feature in the current description of FSD (all other listed FSD features are already delivered and have been for a while)

Specifically it's Navigation on City Streets.

The L2 in-city version of NoA.

The documents Tesla submitted to the CA DMV make this very very very clear.

Elons tweets- not so much.

 

[Dutchie]

He didn’t say June this year...

 

[Silicon Desert]

Tesla’s pure vision approach makes radar/LiDAR obsolete.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380798469862957057

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380796939151704071

Hmmm, interesting comment. Ok, I guess he is talking about not using it for navigation., yet I am wondering why it wouldn't be a good idea to still keep the radar for potentially seeing things you might run into when there is terribly bad weather at night like thick fog. Granted it has been a long time since I did anything with radar back in the Fred Flintstone era, but I can't imagine the technology has gotten worse since then. Maybe I just haven't thought it through in detail.

 

[Knightshade]

And no it really does not make radar obsolete either.


LIDAR can not provide any data you can't already get with vision.

Radar absolutely can provide data it is physically impossible to obtain with vision.


What he's saying in those tweets is not that it makes radar obsolete- it's that it's "needed" rarely enough, and it's a REALLY REALLY REALLY HARD thing to integrate with the new vision system- so they are choosing to sacrifice that extra data they CAN NOT get elsewhere for the benefit of being able to concentrate on pure vision (even that isn't really true- they're still using the ultrasonics).


The cameras have a 360 field of view, and 30ish frames per second of data collection.

Radar is front only, and 10 fps, and produces very different types of data.

Too hard to make those work well together with the new system that's supposedly stich all data into a single 360 realtime view.

 

[Daniellane]

Fooled again!
Thought I found the “Button Watch”
Sadly it was actually a “Watch Button”

 

[mtndrew1]

Jeez at this point I’d settle for new videos from the beta testers of anything after 8.2.

If 9.x really does show a step change then I’ll start believing some of the hype.

 

[Silicon Desert]

Annd now it’s ‘hopefully’ in May

https://twitter.com/x/status/1382458022367162370

uh oh. Elon has stopped using the words "maybe" and "definitely", and now it is "HOPEFULLY" !!!

 

[run-the-joules]

wheeee

 

[Cheburashka]

Elon just tweeted that the button and subscription will be released "same timing."

View attachment 653810

Beta button HOPEFULLY next month.

This is like saying that HOPEFULLY I will win the lottery.

First it was second last week of March, then it was April, and now it's HOPEFULLY May?

This isn't helping inspire any confidence...

 

[diplomat33]

Elon just tweeted that the button and subscription will be released "same timing."

View attachment 653810

I am curious though. If highway AP is already above 99.999999% reliability now, why doesn't Tesla remove driver supervision for highway driving? Why don't they announce L3 highway if they have achieved their safety benchmark?

 

[Cheburashka]

I am curious though. If highway AP is already above 99.999999% reliability now, why doesn't Tesla remove driver supervision for highway driving? Why don't they announce L3 highway if they have achieved their safety benchmark?

All it takes is actually using highway AP and it's pretty obvious it's nowhere near that.

 

[Knightshade]

All it takes is actually using highway AP and it's pretty obvious it's nowhere near that.

It is though.

Tesla publishes accident rate data on AP every quarter. It's VASTLY lower than without AP (in a tesla) and vastly lower than that again compared to non-tesla cars.

But again that's SUPERVISED AP.

I am curious though. If highway AP is already above 99.999999% reliability now, why doesn't Tesla remove driver supervision for highway driving? Why don't they announce L3 highway if they have achieved their safety benchmark?

Because it still hits stationary objects.

It's that safe SUPERVISED.

 

[Cheburashka]

It is though.

Tesla publishes accident rate data on AP every quarter. It's VASTLY lower than without AP (in a tesla) and vastly lower than that again compared to non-tesla cars.

But again that's SUPERVISED AP.

Does Tesla compare highway driving of other, modern cars or just overall accident rates though?

Based on Musk's quote, sounds like AP is ready for no driver supervision on the highway at all.

 

[Silicon Desert]

I am curious though. If highway AP is already above 99.999999% reliability now, why doesn't Tesla remove driver supervision for highway driving? Why don't they announce L3 highway if they have achieved their safety benchmark?

hey, I would go for that in the interim