Older cars upgradable to newer Tesla chip?

[jerseygirl18]

Someone at Tesla truly needs to pull Elon's twitter account from him. You wonder why the SEC is keeping a thumb on him. SMH SMH SMH

does he drink with the orange guy in the WH?

 

[timewasted]

One way Tesla can deal with this (if upgrading 2.0 is really very difficult) is to offer a good deal on a new S/X instead. Most people would take it … or just return the FSD money, if that is cheaper.

I bought the cheapest new Model S that was available at the time, and it was still roughly $90k by the time it was fully legal to drive (car, taxes, registration, etc). If you really think that Tesla saying “hey we lied about your car supporting FSD, but we’ll give you a great deal on one that will!” is an acceptable solution to the retrofit situation... I just don’t know what to say that won’t definitely get me banned on here.

Similarly, a $3k refund is also not enough. These features were material in my decision to purchase this car, and I under no circumstances would have bought the car if not for the promises that were made.

Basically, the only acceptable outcome is to do whatever is necessary to make their claims a reality. I couldn’t care less what it costs them in time and effort to do so.

 

[azred]

I contributed some comments in this thread that helped to once again set off some 2.0 owner/posters. My bad.

It accomplishes nothing to rant about maybes. However for those early 2.0 owners who leased their cars or otherwise flip cars often the issue will soon be moot as the first 2.0 cars are nearly three years old and the upgrade to HW3 surely looks like it isn’t happening anytime soon.

I am glad I own my car and plan to keep it many more years. Of course I am not thrilled that I may get the FSD shaft, but at this point it doesn’t do me any good to worry. I have a strong hunch we will be having these same hand wringing discussions a year or more from now.

 

[verygreen]

BTW, do you know how many 2.0 cars have been sold ?

we know (from the leaked db) it was 106k AP2.0 cars with about 35% FSD purchase rate.

 

[EVNow]

we know (from the leaked db) it was 106k AP2.0 cars with about 35% FSD purchase rate.

Leaked db ?

 

[verygreen]

Leaked db ?

A database leaked out of Tesla accurate to the ~ end of Q3 2017 that listed fleet wide database with data about every car.

 

[azred]

we know (from the leaked db) it was 106k AP2.0 cars with about 35% FSD purchase rate.

I am not an accountant but assume that means about $100m+ is showing on Tesla’s books as deferred revenue?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Really getting tired of this idiotic argument. There are only a few facts known. The most important of which is that Elon said that all cars with FSD will get HW3. So they will.

Please note that we don't know when, although the end of 2019 is one date that was floated by Elon. He also said it wouldn't happen until software was released where it made a difference. That could easily be next year, or the year after if things go bad. Also note that all the AP 2.0 vehicles that don't have FSD have been promised nothing. So if you didn't get FSD when it was available for your 2.0 vehicle, don't assume it will continue to be available, especially at a reasonable price.

All the various wailing about how it will never be available for 2.0 vehicles is just nonsensical. There's no ambiguity.

 

[EVNow]

I am not an accountant but assume that means about $100m+ is showing on Tesla’s books as deferred revenue?

Well, we know what the deferred revenue is - we don't know what the break up is - so how much of that is because of FSD. Parts of FSD revenue could have been recognized, so we don't know how much is left, either.

BTW, 35% FSD rate of 106k cars @ $3k comes to $111M.

Since Q3 of '17, further 150k of s&x and some 275k of Model 3s have been delivered. We don't know what the take rate of FSD for Model 3 is - but if its the same 35% - it comes to a total of ~500M in FSD revenue Tesla has collected over the years for some 185k cars. This is likely over estimated as Model 3 take rate of FSD is likely lower. If upgrading takes ~$1k cost, they will have to spend ~200M to upgrade the cars to recognize ~500M in revenue for a profit of ~300M. Assuming, all cars have to be upgraded, so likely lower than $200M.

ps : From 10Q we get these figures.

Total deferred revenue : $1.19B
Expected to be recognized over next year : $567M

This includes all kinds of deferred revenue. A large part of that $567M could be from FSD.

 

[vlee]

Did you buy FSD already? Or just EAP? Or neither?

 

[vlee]

My question was directed toward "timewasted". For some reason the quote didn't insert.

 

[azred]

Really getting tired of this idiotic argument. There are only a few facts known. The most important of which is that Elon said that all cars with FSD will get HW3. So they will.

Please note that we don't know when, although the end of 2019 is one date that was floated by Elon. He also said it wouldn't happen until software was released where it made a difference. That could easily be next year, or the year after if things go bad. Also note that all the AP 2.0 vehicles that don't have FSD have been promised nothing. So if you didn't get FSD when it was available for your 2.0 vehicle, don't assume it will continue to be available, especially at a reasonable price.

All the various wailing about how it will never be available for 2.0 vehicles is just nonsensical. There's no ambiguity.

I mostly agree with every word you wrote, but also understand some skepticism. I think it was dishonest to sell FSD as an option when I bought my S nearly three years ago, so Tesla has created some of the skepticism no matter Elon’s recent tweets.

However unless I see a noisy post saying I probably won’t get FSD features from someone with proven credibility on technical matters, e.g., wk057, I am going to assume the skeptics who proclaim great knowledge are likely full of themselves.