Only $40,600 trade-in value on my one-month-new 3 w/ 1,400 miles!

[2012MS85]

I took delivery of my perfect blue/white MR 3 w/ EAP on Dec 14, 2018. It was built the week beforehand and it’s flawless. Monroney was $54,700. Anyone buying the exact same 3 today gets half the tax credit, but also Tesla’s $2k price cut, for a net price of $48,950 plus tax/title/license/etc. After a month of ownership, my odometer increased from 8 miles at delivery to 1,400 miles. (Then my wife added another 100 miles in the past few days.)

While on vacation in Cancun (102*F warmer than today’s -22*F in Iowa), Elon tweets that my referral code will become worthless tomorrow (Feb 1) when the referral program ends. I’m totally bummed because I needed just one referral (3rd) for 21” Arachnids on my Sig Red P85. Those list for $6k, but can be found new and for sale for $3k to $5k from referral winners who are selling them on TMC and elsewhere. So on the plane ride home, I had the idea of possibly selling my 3, or trading it in with Tesla, to buy a Jan 2019 built (ensuring higher quality coming off the Fremont line recently) MR 3 w/o EAP (since it’s turned out to have very limited value/usefulness in my Quad Cities area with no highway driving, nor much traffic congestion). My goal was a self-referral (I.e., free Arachnids) if I could remain in a similar 3 but without EAP, and not get killed on depreciation since I just read an article about the 3’s amazingly high resale value. I fully expected to have the fair market value reflect that every EV depreciates $7,500 instantly when sold because of the tax credit; acknowledged. I put my 3 for sale on TMC at $49,999 and lowered it a day later to $49k. And ran a free cars.com ad for the same $49k. I was thinking I’d maybe get a potential buyer to offer mid-$40k...and after 4 days...nada, zilch, nothing...beyond idiot scammers who asked if I have both “keys” and does the engine leak, or any rust? Not kidding. So I also reached out to Tesla and explained my plan to self-refer for my 3rd prize, but looking to downgrade and go sans EAP, while hoping to not lose too much money after only 1,400 miles and not a scratch. Well, Tesla offered only $40,600, which amounts to $14,100 less than I paid Tesla last month, which is a whopping $10 per mile of depreciation I’m sharing this on TMC because many folks speculate a lot about FMV, depreciation, how tax credits affect resale value, and many other items that this post addresses with real-world data. Not looking to have big discussions or disagreements with anyone; just thought I’d share some factoids for those who cared or wondered.

And, no, I’m not trading. Nor selling. Just going to keep driving and enjoying my Teslas. And if you’re in the QCA, renting out the 3 for those who want to experience what this craze is all about

 

[UngaBunga1989]

That actually sounds pretty fair -- even though, like you, I would not take the offer. Fairly typical is a 20% depreciation hit the moment you walk off the lot with a new car...Tesla's offer was a trade-in (which is wholesale) and was "only" 17% less that you "net" purchase price...

 

[JPUConn]

Have you considered asking your sales reps if they could connect you with customers that don't have referral codes? I got 8 referrals in one day just hanging out a busy Tesla showroom talking to customers about my ownership experience.

 

[Michael A]

I considered reaching out to you about buying your car however I dont particularly like the white interior and dont need AP. So that makes my blue MR build $39,750. In NY we have a $2k state rebate also. Even adding back in the white interior and AP options your still asking more than I can buy a new unit direct from my local Tesla dealer. Financing will cost a bit less due to new vs used car loan rates.
In fact I have 2 locals car to me, AP and Dual Motor for $49k and a performance with no AP for $58k.
Again haven't pulled the trigger, I am patiently waiting for a RWD LR for $40k or close to $40k.

 

[brkaus]

The most expensive mile on any car is the first mile.

 

[Trips]

$40k seems reasonable or a little high. You have to remember that they have to clean, inspect, fix, paperwork, store, advertise and many others items for this vehicle. Tesla wants to make money along with the company they use to sell the car. The new owner of this used car also wants a deal of $3k-$5k or they would buy a new one. Is it worth it to Tesla to have to deal with this for the potential of making <$1,000?

 

[2012MS85]

Have you considered asking your sales reps if they could connect you with customers that don't have referral codes? I got 8 referrals in one day just hanging out a busy Tesla showroom talking to customers about my ownership experience.

Yes, you read my mind as I’m headed to Chicago tomorrow to do exactly that! My 3 has a brake squeak that is likely the extreme cold, but I made an appointment just to have it checked out anyway. And my Hail Mary master plan is to do exactly what you described in being present at Tesla’s Grand Ave store for several hours (while waiting on my service appointment) to befriend potential customers to answer questions about Tesla cars, Powerwall, solar, et al. I’m encouraged to hear it worked for you 8 times over! Thanks for sharing that!

 

[remlemasi]

Have you considered asking your sales reps if they could connect you with customers that don't have referral codes? I got 8 referrals in one day just hanging out a busy Tesla showroom talking to customers about my ownership experience.

That's amazing. Six more days and you would have a free Roadster. $200,000 in 7 days, over $10 million annually. Could make a very good living out of it!

 

[Trevor B]

tl; dr

Really hard to read as well.

 

[remlemasi]

Yes, you read my mind as I’m headed to Chicago tomorrow to do exactly that! My 3 has a brake squeak that is likely the extreme cold, but I made an appointment just to have it checked out anyway. And my Hail Mary master plan is to do exactly what you described in being present at Tesla’s Grand Ave store for several hours (while waiting on my service appointment) to befriend potential customers to answer questions about Tesla cars, Powerwall, solar, et al. I’m encouraged to hear it worked for you 8 times over! Thanks for sharing that!

Let us know how it goes!

 

[Az_Rael]

since I just read an article about the 3’s amazingly high resale value

I would guess the article's data was probably skewed by the early 2018 situation where people were selling 3's for more than MSRP used. Back when you couldn't get one in a week like you can now.

 

[Magnets!]

Selling a $30k+ used car to a private party takes time. My Audi S4 ad went un-responded to for two weeks before the buyer appeared and paid my full asking price (top of KBB retail used price). Selling a previous BMW M3 took even longer, almost a month as I recall, but for top dollar. I suspect the tax credit and state rebates impacts the sale of a used EV.

 

[Dana1]

View attachment 373386 I took delivery of my perfect blue/white MR 3 w/ EAP on Dec 14, 2018. It was built the week beforehand and it’s flawless. Monroney was $54,700. Anyone buying the exact same 3 today gets half the tax credit, but also Tesla’s $2k price cut, for a net price of $48,950 plus tax/title/license/etc. After a month of ownership, my odometer increased from 8 miles at delivery to 1,400 miles. (Then my wife added another 100 miles in the past few days.)

While on vacation in Cancun (102*F warmer than today’s -22*F in Iowa), Elon tweets that my referral code will become worthless tomorrow (Feb 1) when the referral program ends. I’m totally bummed because I needed just one referral (3rd) for 21” Arachnids on my Sig Red P85. Those list for $6k, but can be found new and for sale for $3k to $5k from referral winners who are selling them on TMC and elsewhere. So on the plane ride home, I had the idea of possibly selling my 3, or trading it in with Tesla, to buy a Jan 2019 built (ensuring higher quality coming off the Fremont line recently) MR 3 w/o EAP (since it’s turned out to have very limited value/usefulness in my Quad Cities area with no highway driving, nor much traffic congestion). My goal was a self-referral (I.e., free Arachnids) if I could remain in a similar 3 but without EAP, and not get killed on depreciation since I just read an article about the 3’s amazingly high resale value. I fully expected to have the fair market value reflect that every EV depreciates $7,500 instantly when sold because of the tax credit; acknowledged. I put my 3 for sale on TMC at $49,999 and lowered it a day later to $49k. And ran a free cars.com ad for the same $49k. I was thinking I’d maybe get a potential buyer to offer mid-$40k...and after 4 days...nada, zilch, nothing...beyond idiot scammers who asked if I have both “keys” and does the engine leak, or any rust? Not kidding. So I also reached out to Tesla and explained my plan to self-refer for my 3rd prize, but looking to downgrade and go sans EAP, while hoping to not lose too much money after only 1,400 miles and not a scratch. Well, Tesla offered only $40,600, which amounts to $14,100 less than I paid Tesla last month, which is a whopping $10 per mile of depreciation I’m sharing this on TMC because many folks speculate a lot about FMV, depreciation, how tax credits affect resale value, and many other items that this post addresses with real-world data. Not looking to have big discussions or disagreements with anyone; just thought I’d share some factoids for those who cared or wondered.

And, no, I’m not trading. Nor selling. Just going to keep driving and enjoying my Teslas. And if you’re in the QCA, renting out the 3 for those who want to experience what this craze is all about

You don’t expect to get a new price for a used car do you? Would you buy a car from the manufacturer, New with tax rebate, or a car that someone has had, even briefly? I’d expect a discount for the pre owned car. Tesla has to detail, store, and sell the trade in. All of that costs money. You can sell it privately for a slightly better price but any knowledgeable buyer, and Tesla, knows you got a tax credit and will use that as a starting point and go downwards from there.

 

[Need]

OP I think your original plan was pretty crazy. If you are doing it to upgrade to a P3D or something like that... I understand. But your main goal was to keep the same exact car (downgrade to no EAP) and risk any major defects on delivery on the new car... knowing that you are going to lose thousands of $.... just for a set of wheels? I think you could buy those exact wheels new here from others for like $3k to $3.5k.. maybe cheaper elsewhere. Or you could just offer here to give someone $1000 to use your referral code. There got to be someone who will do it. There is no way you can not lose at least $5k selling an one month old $50k+ car.....

 

[Uncle Paul]

You also need to look at this from the perspective of Tesla. They probably could build a brand new Model 3 for less than they are offering to buy your used one back for. Believe they are getting around 25% gross margin on their new cars. They also would need to send you a free set of $6,000 wheels. Why would they want to do that?

You also mentioned that you were looking to get a better quality later build vehicle, but also that your car was flawless and perfect.

 

[2012MS85]

You also need to look at this from the perspective of Tesla. They probably could build a brand new Model 3 for less than they are offering to buy your used one back for. Believe they are getting around 25% gross margin on their new cars. They also would need to send you a free set of $6,000 wheels. Why would they want to do that?

You also mentioned that you were looking to get a better quality later build vehicle, but also that your car was flawless and perfect.

I totally agree that Tesla made me a fair offer for a potential trade given their cost of production and limited used car resale opportunities that would be counter-productive to their new car sales. Had the offer been higher, I might have given Tesla an incremental new 3 sale if it made economic sense from my end, which it didn't. I wanted to ensure a recent build (preferably Jan '19, but no older than my Dec '18) so that I wasn't going from perfect to problematic (thus requiring me to drive 400 miles round trip to Chicago for future repairs, and also hurting Tesla's bottom line with more expense they can't afford). I certainly didn't want to consider buying a vehicle that might have been rejected a year ago by someone else and held in inventory or left over after repairs failed (since my new 3 is perfect).

In the end, it made perfect sense for me to keep my 3 and do nothing. I simply shared market data with TMC folks to answer questions I've seen many posit about how high some might perceive their market value to be. Tesla owners should simply enjoy their investments

 

[sperkin]

Thanks for sharing but 20% drop once the car leaves the lot is typical. Just wait and pay $3k-4k for the wheels. I'm not sure if your state has sales tax but in CA, I'm already 9% in the hole.

 

[2012MS85]

Let us know how it goes!

So referral codes will work for one more day (Feb 2) to get not only 6 months of free supercharging, but also my free Elon signed wall connector (i.e., I'm giving up my 2nd referral prize to get my 3rd referral prize of Arachnids for my S). Yesterday I had a service appointment at 11am in Chicago (Grand Ave) where they fixed my 3's brake squeak. I had hoped to help answer questions of potential buyers and earn my 3rd referral while I hung out at the Tesla store. Unfortunately there was literally zero foot traffic of potential customers at this location. The Grand Ave location also had experienced a water main break on their block due to the extreme -23F cold the day before, so no working restrooms. So I took a Lyft over to Tesla's premier store on Rush St and hung out there for 3 hours. Again, virtually zero foot traffic; only one pair of twin brothers who were loving the X that they were simply dreaming about, and another 3 dogs with their owners that come every day for a free dog treat from Tesla. I left Grand Ave service at 4pm and then swung by Westmont at 5:30pm to do the software update that Grand Ave forgot to do (somehow my rear backup camera went black, and the software update brought it back to life). So I hung out at Westmont from 5:30-7pm and visited with all my favorite Tesla sales folks and hoped for foot traffic where I could help provide real-life owner testimonial to how awesome Tesla ownership is...and still hoping for referral #3. Nope, still not a single customer coming in to kick the tires. So my takeaway is that I saw over 100 new 3s between Grand Ave & Westmont, yet not one real potential buyer over an 8 hour period at 3 Tesla locations. Very sad, and a bit worrisome that "off the street" demand seems to be drying up. Of course it could be that it was still only like 5F and maybe the cold weather had everyone staying away. Bottom line, I still need my 3rd referral TODAY. And YOU can get my $500 wall connector if you use my code that earns me cool Arachnids!

To respond to comments about my "crazy plan," it was more of a data gathering exercise. I put my car out there for sale at the exact same price of $49k that someone else could buy a new 3 IF they waited a year to file their 2019 taxes and get their $3750 tax credit. I had an actual 3 that could be verified as perfect; with Tesla's less than stellar customer service of late, the buyer does NOT know if their 3 will be perfect. And I was curious if my trade in price would be $40k, or $45k, or whatever. So I wanted data more than anything, because most of what we all read on TMC and elsewhere is wild speculation of made up numbers. I was able to share REAL numbers with those who cared. That's all

 

[jkoya]

@2012MS85 - Is that an ELR in your pic ?

 

[2012MS85]

@2012MS85 - Is that an ELR in your pic ?

Yes, 2014 Cadillac ELR; awesome vehicle...but not quite a Tesla And if you look real close, you'll see the ELR's little brother behind it - our 2013 Chevy Volt, which I also love. It's an ELR without the fancy prom dress and high heels

I bought the ELR first (new), then the Volt (used) as my every day driver. Then got an S85, which I sold after 15 months, in favor of the 3 I had on order since day 1. Then found a perfect Sig Red P85 that I flew to Seattle to buy on Dec 6. Then got the 3 new at Westmont on Dec 14. I live in EV wonderland Actually I rent out EVs through my limo business; all of these except the Sig P85 which is simply too perfect to let anyone else drive.