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my best guess - and it is only a guess :):

If you have an End of June delivery date you would already know about it, and be having to "Send Cash Now" :)

If you have a VIN then my guess is you have a July delivery date, and you would also have had a call confirming approx date e.g. "Mid July". (That includes a VIN hidden in source code and not on official documents ... yet)

If not then i doubt there will be (many?) deliveries in August. Tesla has been hell-for-leather satisfying USA order at end June, end-of-quarter, so will have been manufacturing for that market. So if I assume zero cars made in June for EU / UK market then zero deliveries in August. So then it will be September (This is backed up by a lack of VIN's allocated for RHD cars recently ... )

If you change and IF you go to the back of the queue, then it will be September I reckon ...

But you might also change to a model that they have ample stock of, and get an earlier date ... altogether i don't think you are going to bump someone who already has a VIN ... but you might get their VIN if they are bumped (a delay getting finance, for example) if you are higher priority than someone else (early reservation holder etc.)

Everything you say rings true. When I spoke to the Tesla sales chap he was saying that demand slumps in August due to folks waiting for the new registration (does anyone still care about that anymore ?) and so deliveries could move to September. I think it is a nice scripted excuse for late deliveries. I don't have anything, no VIN no notifications so I'm thinking September at best for me.
 
Everything you say rings true. When I spoke to the Tesla sales chap he was saying that demand slumps in August due to folks waiting for the new registration (does anyone still care about that anymore ?) and so deliveries could move to September. I think it is a nice scripted excuse for late deliveries. I don't have anything, no VIN no notifications so I'm thinking September at best for me.

Given the long but not very predictable (or perhaps they are predictable but aren't well communicated. Anyway, the logic's the same) lead times, if folk want September or later registration you'd think they'd be ordering in June/Jul/Aug. Wait til September to order and you might not get it til Christmas.
 
I'm waiting for some extra finances but also want to wait until September for two reasons, my current insurance renews then and I would lose a years no claims if I cancelled before hand, plus the new plate. I sent an email to Telsa the other day to see if they can give some sort of idea if I order now, what sort of delivery date I would be looking at. Its estimated around ~1500 RHD cars have been made so far, some rumored to still be sitting at the port over the pond. I would expect starting July they will do a massive RHD production for the UK and the other RHD countries, (they have an ETA of August for some of the other RHD countries), right now they are focusing on the US to get cars out before the end of the quarter and before the tax incentives are cut. My guess is there will be ~1500 delivered by the end of July, then expect a couple of boatloads in August which will then get through the bulk of current orders, with some of the later orders arriving in September. I reckon an order now could put you in late August/September.
 
OK thank you for the heads up. I'm still a bit paranoid that I go straight to the back to the back of the line if I make a change.
Sometimes changing the config gets you a car earlier. e.g. if you ordered AWD and they only want to sell P- and they'll produce P- in July, changing to P- might actually get you a car sooner, if you still don't have a VIN assigned. My experience is: once all ships for a quarter have had their car VINs assigned to orders and you still have no VIN, it harms rather than helps to have a configuration that is not longer officially in the configurator.

That, or it might make no difference if they just software nerf P- to "make" AWDs.

Personally, I don't expect a "hole" in August; I'd expect that after the end of Q2 rush to get RWD LRs out the door for the US in time for Q2, we might see another batch of RHD cars produced at the start of the quarter in July. These would arrive in the second half of August and be delivered end of August or beginning of September.

The "hole" in arrivals I expect is in end of July, since they evidently aren't producing for the RHD markets right now.
 
then expect a couple of boatloads in August

My take is that [for August delivery] they would have had to have been built in June ... and anything Tesla build in June, which they can sell "locally" [in USA/CA], will get into their Q2 sales ... so "none" for EU will be built in June.

Might be a few weeks at end of June when they cannot realistically build and deliver in USA to make the Q2 cut ... so they can come to EU ... but still 8 weeks-ish from Build-to-Handover, in EU.
 
My car: built on the 9th of April°, put on a boat leaving the 15th, and the first delivery date that I could pick was the 17th of May; that ain't 8 weeks.

So no, I don't expect that it's impossible that cars built in July would appear in August in the UK. It all depends on the slots in which they plan to build RHD cars.

I expect some boats in August, but the question of whether the first ones have RHD cars on them is more tricky to answer.

--
°Yeah, just days before they started to install HW3 computers. Ah well.
 
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Everything you say rings true. When I spoke to the Tesla sales chap he was saying that demand slumps in August due to folks waiting for the new registration (does anyone still care about that anymore ?) and so deliveries could move to September. I think it is a nice scripted excuse for late deliveries. I don't have anything, no VIN no notifications so I'm thinking September at best for me.

A lot of people will still want an early September delivery over late August for the new plate. Other than vanity of a new plate, used price guides nearly always quote on year and plate, not individual months. So there will always be a small drop in value on a trade in for a late August car vs early September. Obviously this is less important the longer you intend to keep the car, but no way would I want a very late August car when I could wait a week or two longer for a new plate. I wouldn't care if I was getting a June or July delivery as then there is some benefit in owning the car a couple of months earlier, but once you get into mid August the new plate beckons. I also wouldn't care on PCP with a guaranteed % based minimum residual, but PCP doesn't seem to be an option for an early M3 purchase.

One thing to watch for those looking for an early September delivery on the new plate is that Tesla will likely register your vehicle well before actual handover, so you could end up taking delivery in September with the old plate.
 
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My take is that [for August delivery] they would have had to have been built in June ... and anything Tesla build in June, which they can sell "locally" [in USA/CA], will get into their Q2 sales ... so "none" for EU will be built in June.

Might be a few weeks at end of June when they cannot realistically build and deliver in USA to make the Q2 cut ... so they can come to EU ... but still 8 weeks-ish from Build-to-Handover, in EU.
I don't know when in the process the VIN is registered, I would assume before being built, there was around ~450 registered on 10th May, which I assume are the cars that are here now due for collection 20th June, so just over a month. So an early July build could get some over for August, plus there are rumors that there are still some RHD at the port waiting to leave. I would like to think that they would start building as soon as July hits as they have stated August delivery to some of the other RHD countries.
 
Sometimes changing the config gets you a car earlier. e.g. if you ordered AWD and they only want to sell P- and they'll produce P- in July, changing to P- might actually get you a car sooner, if you still don't have a VIN assigned. My experience is: once all ships for a quarter have had their car VINs assigned to orders and you still have no VIN, it harms rather than helps to have a configuration that is not longer officially in the configurator.

That, or it might make no difference if they just software nerf P- to "make" AWDs.

Personally, I don't expect a "hole" in August; I'd expect that after the end of Q2 rush to get RWD LRs out the door for the US in time for Q2, we might see another batch of RHD cars produced at the start of the quarter in July. These would arrive in the second half of August and be delivered end of August or beginning of September.

The "hole" in arrivals I expect is in end of July, since they evidently aren't producing for the RHD markets right now.
After I placed my order M3 B/B AWD LR, when I log on to my TESLA account the Order Number is there but there is not edit button. I would be tempted to perhaps upgrade to a P, but have no means to do so. Anyone else had this happen ?
 
Ok update. Received a new e-mail from Tesla changing my B/B AWD LR M3 today and adding £3,500 to my price. Called Edinburgh sales to ask and it was just admin. due to how they have to show the Government grant for the sale so no problem, no price increase to me. Anyway I asked about upgrading to a M3P due to the price drop and was advised that this could not be done on the same order and if I cancelled and re-ordered I would go to the back of the queue. So then I asked if she could give me an estimate on delivery and she looked at my order (01/05/2019) and was very clear and confident that July will be the expected delivery. She said Edinburgh are expecting a lot of cars in very shortly and they are busy allocating VINs to orders which is taking a while, but with my spec. she can't see a problem. I have tried to keep a lid on my kid at Christmas levels of excitement but have failed. I'm going to sell my car now and wait with baited breath. It will probably arrive in December now !
 
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Ok update. Received a new e-mail from Tesla changing my B/B AWD LR M3 today and adding £3,500 to my price. Called Edinburgh sales to ask and it was just admin. due to how they have to show the Government grant for the sale so no problem, no price increase to me. Anyway I asked about upgrading to a M3P due to the price drop and was advised that this could not be done on the same order and if I cancelled and re-ordered I would go to the back of the queue. So then I asked if she could give me an estimate on delivery and she looked at my order (01/05/2019) and was very clear and confident that July will be the expected delivery. She said Edinburgh are expecting a lot of cars in very shortly and they are busy allocating VINs to orders which is taking a while, but with my spec. she can't see a problem. I have tried to keep a lid on my kid at Christmas levels of excitement but have failed. I'm going to sell my car now and wait with baited breath. It will probably arrive in December now !
Have you ordered a white or black interior?
 
Also if you saw Sunday's Top Gear the M3P bossed the best the Germans (and Italians) had to offer on a "no allowances for it being an electric car" review. I would imagine that a lot of people would have been tempted to order one after seeing that. I believe the presenter has ordered one !
 
I ordered a M3 Performance at the end of May and the delivery estimate was August at the time. I have tried to find out when i am likely to get this but none of the Tesla reps seem to know! They just say someone will call you to arrange delivery. Can help on standard UK delivery times these days?
 
I ordered a M3 Performance at the end of May and the delivery estimate was August at the time. I have tried to find out when i am likely to get this but none of the Tesla reps seem to know! They just say someone will call you to arrange delivery. Can help on standard UK delivery times these days?

Unfortunately there isn't really a standard delivery time at the moment while they clear the order backlog. I ordered early May and still waiting. It depends on your config, how many people are in the queue ahead of you with that spec, what cars are on the ships arriving and whether you consulted your lucky 8 ball that morning.

I did get a call a couple of week's back giving me 2 day's notice of my delivery appointment which was completely out of the blue (it was cancelled the next day but that's another story). So they're not joking when they say you will suddenly get a call/ text, but don't expect much warning.