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Poll: How Many Model 3s Will Be Reserved In The First 24 Hours?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by MSEV, Feb 16, 2016.

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How many Model 3s will be reserved in the first 24 hours?

Poll closed Apr 6, 2016.
  1. 0 to 10,000

    34 vote(s)
    16.1%
  2. 10,001 to 20,000

    37 vote(s)
    17.5%
  3. 20,001 to 30,000

    38 vote(s)
    18.0%
  4. 30,001 to 40,000

    20 vote(s)
    9.5%
  5. 40,001 to 50,000

    24 vote(s)
    11.4%
  6. 50,001 to 100,000

    40 vote(s)
    19.0%
  7. Greater then 100,000

    18 vote(s)
    8.5%
  1. MSEV

    MSEV Member

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    There's a lot of speculation about the number of Model 3s that will be reserved initially. Of course, none of us know how many will be reserved. But what is your hunch/feeling/guess?
     
  2. xhawk101

    xhawk101 Active Member

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  3. mikeberg22se

    mikeberg22se Member

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    I second that! Since the reserv is 1kusd It will tempt many!
     
  4. mibaro2

    mibaro2 Member

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    I'll go with 100k also. Any bets on whether TM website crashes on the first day for online reservations ?
     
  5. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Active Member

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  6. slcuervo

    slcuervo Member

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    I will be less optimistic and say 50K - the reason why I say this is because there are not so many people out there who are used to place reservations for cars that are not yet in production...
     
  7. Thora

    Thora Member

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    My estimate ~ 50000

    There is no reason to rush with reservation on the first day and then wait xxx days for delivery
     
  8. yobigd20

    yobigd20 Well-Known Member

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  9. HiTech

    HiTech Member

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    I've been wondering the same thing, but using the "first month" as a benchmark. Was thinking roughly about 50k in the first month. Have no clue how the first 24 hours will go though.
    Keep in mind, online doesn't start until the 1st of April. So, I'm assuming you mean 24hrs of online orders being accepted.

    @yobigd20 - Vegita of DBZ. I like it! Awesome pic.
     
  10. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    Seriously people think 100k in first 24 hours? LOL.
     
  11. mkjayakumar

    mkjayakumar Active Member

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    500 in first 24 hours of in store reservations
     
  12. mikeberg22se

    mikeberg22se Member

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    On second thought... Thats more than 1 per second... Lets say 35 k...
     
  13. nwdiver

    nwdiver Active Member

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  14. YBT

    YBT Member

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    #14 YBT, Feb 18, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2016
    Model X managed ~5K in 2 days I believe? So let's call that 2.5K in 24 hours.
    The Model 3 is expected to have a peak sales volume roughly 10x greater (I'm assuming 50K X's vs 500K Model 3's p.a), so let's say the market is 1000% bigger. Multiply this by the temptingly cheap reservation price (x2) and you have the headline grabbing:

    2.5K * 10 * 2= 50,000 first day reservations (this will probably look like 75K - 100K
    vehicles as many will be reserving 2+)

    You may bookmark this page to show your grandchildren when this theory proves itself to be correct.
     
  15. mkjayakumar

    mkjayakumar Active Member

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    There are what about 30 stores in the US? 50k reservations means more than 1600 per store, or around 1000 people walk inside each store on average and do the reservations (assuming some did more than 1).

    Not sure how that is feasible.
     
  16. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Is this the first 24 hours after online reservations open (my assumption)?
     
  17. slcuervo

    slcuervo Member

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    I was counting 24h after online reservations begin. I don't think they can achieve more than 50K exclusively in stores, IMO
     
  18. Yuri_G

    Yuri_G Member

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    There are almost 100 stores in North America. About 215 worldwide. If we're just talking about March 31st, I'd guess 10k reservations. First two days, easily over 50k. Maybe closer to 100k.
     
  19. S3XY

    S3XY Member

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    29842 (I've seen The Price is Right) :wink:
     
  20. Ardie

    Ardie Member

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    Hard to estimate. I can certainly see a crafty person with $50,000 making 50 separate reservations, with the scheme of selling off the reservation slots to others for a tidy profit.
    Perhaps enough to allow him to keep the 50th reservation for himself.
    (I guess I should check my credit limit.)

    -- Ardie
     

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