Also you have to consider other differences between Tesla and Nissan, like supercharging infrastructure, not having to buy from a dealer, over the air upgrades, etc. Even if Nissan had the exact same car and battery and similar styling, they can't compete with Tesla in the other intangible areas right now. That's a lot of why I want a Tesla to replace my Leaf, not just a longer range EV.
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Poll: Who thinks they'll get the full $7,500 U.S. tax credit?
- Thread starter Haxster
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- Model 3 tax credit
My Tesla page said ordering is based on reservation date. Which in my case was when I placed the order, not when I received the email. Being merely based on date, I don't see how time of day even matters.
Chopr147
Active Member
I think I am in the same boat...eeerrr car as most here. I will be getting the Model 3 with or w/o a tax credit. Though for me if I did get a full credit I would most likely get the performance version and consider it kind of a free upgrade 
NY does not have any state incentives so looks like I will most likely be paying full price I currently own a Yukon XL and do not have any guilt about it. I love the Yukon but no longer need a big car.
NY does not have any state incentives so looks like I will most likely be paying full price I currently own a Yukon XL and do not have any guilt about it. I love the Yukon but no longer need a big car.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
"Date" does not necessarily infer a level of resolution of a single day. In this case it's rather absurd to assume that it DOES mean that. Time of reservation is obviously included in "date".
Exactly. Especially since something like 150k or so reservations were made on 3/31 if I remember correctly. That's a lot of orders to place at once.
Certainly possible, but not obvious at this point. Once ordering begins, given the multiple queuing prioritization schemes they eventually come up with, how would people possibly know the relative difference? Re positioning based on batch volume, regions, prior owners, etc will certainly trump time of day.
looks like a LOT more people are getting rebates
Tesla announces new Model 3 production plans, guidance of 500,000 cars/yr by 2018, instead of 2020
Tesla announces new Model 3 production plans, guidance of 500,000 cars/yr by 2018, instead of 2020
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
It's excruciatingly obvious. Tesla would not have explicitly stated that going to a store at opening time on launch day was the best way to get a model 3 quickly if there was zero incentive for doing so.
Of course it will, and they've been quite transparent about that as well. However, all other things equal, a reservation with an earlier timestamp will be built first.
Genshi
Member
Realistically, if their 2016 Q1 Shareholder Letter ends up accurate, they'll have the capacity to clear the entire queue (400,000+ at the time I wrote this) in 1 year from time of the first shipment. They're currently shooting to ship 500,000 cars/year by 2018. If that really is the case, and if they really feel like gaming the system, they could deliver overseas/non-US orders and/or warehouse cars intended for the US market, then deliver them on 7/1/18 and have 2 full quarters for the full credit, ensuring that everyone gets the $7500. The fact that they just bought a lot of warehouse space 20 miles from the Fremont plant makes me hopeful, but it's FAR more likely they're using that for component and/or subassembly storage in the expected run up to production.
I'm not saying this is realistic or likely, just that it could happen. And Elon Musk has alluded a few times to the fact that there are ways to maximize the potential credits for customers. I'd be suspicious of most executives saying this, but he seems to have a track record of advocating on behalf of his customers.
At the very least, I suspect based on that shareholder letter that they'll try to get everyone in the queue in for at least a 50% credit.
Letter is here:
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...E45227BA/Q1_2016_Tesla_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
Additional releases are here:
Tesla Releases First Quarter 2016 Financial Results (NASDAQ:TSLA)
I'm not saying this is realistic or likely, just that it could happen. And Elon Musk has alluded a few times to the fact that there are ways to maximize the potential credits for customers. I'd be suspicious of most executives saying this, but he seems to have a track record of advocating on behalf of his customers.
At the very least, I suspect based on that shareholder letter that they'll try to get everyone in the queue in for at least a 50% credit.
Letter is here:
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...E45227BA/Q1_2016_Tesla_Shareholder_Letter.pdf
Additional releases are here:
Tesla Releases First Quarter 2016 Financial Results (NASDAQ:TSLA)
500K electric cars/year from Tesla. Add to that electric vehicle production from other manufacturers. Most new owners will need additional in-home or close-by electrical service. A good time to be an electrician. Less good if you own a gas station.
Or speculate in some stock. I'll install the outlet myself and have a licensed electrician sign off.
Genshi
Member
That trailing question... that's the other big question mark isn't it? I do have concerns about QC after the (I'll be generous here) troubled Model X rollout. My hope is that since their stated intent is to roll these out to employees et al first, they'll be able to get ~10,000 of them on the road as a precursor to the full release. I'm sure I'll be extra cranky at that point since I won't be getting mine and production will seem slow, but it would be the best "beta" they could hope for in terms of working out the initial kinks, if they can manage the PR aspect.
I think most people are a bit bearish (particularly investors) about Tesla's prospects for actually getting to 500k/year by 2018, but even so... Elon Musk has sort of made a hobby of defying expectations, even if his timeliness isn't always what we wish it were. (To be fair, the scope of the things he's tackled in the last two decades makes me feel like a hopeless underachiever, so I say that without judgment.) He readily admitted that hubris was a problem with the Model X. I don't expect that mistake to be repeated with the model ≡ for 2 reasons: First, it shouldn't be nearly the engineering challenge the X was, or even that the S. Second, Elon Musk doesn't seem to have a habit of repeating the same mistake twice.
I would suggest that Tesla will aim to unsure that as many people as possible get the rebate. The mechanics of the rebate are not lost on them, so if it means hitting 200k at just the right time I would bet that they would do exactly that. Which would give them two full quarters with as many cars as they can produce being eligible.
Genshi
Member
As Twiglet points out, this is almost certainly Tesla's plan. They have several easy ways to do this, too. If they need the sales on the books, ship a bunch of the non-US orders instead of crossing that 200k US threshold at the wrong time. If they can afford to stock them as an inventory/asset, hold inventory and then release X cars all at once on day 1 of a new quarter.
Hell, if they're feeling REALLY generous and cash flow allows and they actually manage to achieve that 500k/year in 2018 build goal, stock a high 5 or low 6 figure inventory, THEN release them all on July 1st, 2018 and bring nearly all of the preorders into the applicable 100% rebate period. I've made this argument in a few posts... it's not necessarily likely and I wouldn't budget for it personally, but it is possible.
If this were just a customer satisfaction question, I wouldn't be as confident. But there are some other pressing reasons for them to take every advantage they can of that period. Once Tesla exhausts those credits and then run out the 18 months of diminishing rebates, other automakers who haven't previously been able to compete at the $35k price point will be able to more easily with a higher priced car. They can sell their $42,500 EV cars with tax credits to compete with Tesla's Model 3. For that reason alone, it would behoove Tesla to take maximum advantage of those credits while they can. Lastly, more Model ≡ sales means more ZEV credits they can put on the books that they sold to those automakers still pushing ICE cars. (I haven't fully researched ZEV credits, but I get the sense it helps pad the P&L.) Having that to pad the books after all the production buildout costs and workforce increase would probably help with year end numbers.
While the federal and state tax credits more-or-less covered the sales tax, delivery, and registration for Model S buyers and probably wasn't a big factor in their buying decision, it will likely be a big factor for many (less wealthy) Model 3 buyers. So, I agree, Tesla will probably do what it can to maximize these credits for Model 3 customers.
On a side note, wouldn't it be interesting if a manufacturer could produce a marginally decent "tax-credit-qualified" electric vehicle for under $20K? Even with mediocre range, performance, features, style, etc, it could make for a really inexpensive commute car that could also provide access to carpool lanes in many states.
I think Tesla is just going to build all the cars they can. They often do a poor job of estimating production dates now on their low volume cars. I don't see how they can possibly effectively manage timing for rebates.
Personally I don't want an early model 3, so I'm not going to worry about the rebate.
timing rebates is all about releasing US cars to customers, which they are very good at and have lots of control over.
The trick is make sure the 200,000th car is released at the right time to maximize the time period where there is no numerical limit - then unleash the hounds.
Honestly, if I get the rebate I'll just spend it on more options. No rebate = fewer options. I'm getting the car regardless
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