[POLL] Will base model M3 beat the Chevy Bolt's 238 mile EPA range?

[cdub]

I think the based model 3 will beat the Bolt.

I think the 75 model 3 will have something in the 275 range of range.

I also think at the reveal he'll also release newer versions of S & X with fancy shmancy upgraded interiors to really differentiate from the 3.

Maybe that's where the rumored HUD will go if it exists instead of the current binacle.

I also predict the new S & X interior will have horizontal displays like the 3 to unify the interface.

This is of course slightly speculative although I remember hearing something on the Tesla show about a model S & X tech refresh from an inside source.

 

[OBX John]

I hope it will beat the Bolt, but it's largely irrelevant until you can supercharge a Chevy.

 

[R.S]

There is a photo of a parked Model 3, showing 90 miles @ 1/3 charge.

Elon will not allow the Model 3 to have less range than a Chevy.

But that doesn't mean the base version will have 270 miles of rage, just that there is one with that much, or more range.

The RCs could have very well been 75s, just because they don't need to charge them as often and can do more testing.

 

[JeffK]

There is a photo of a parked Model 3, showing 90 miles @ 1/3 charge.

Elon will not allow the Model 3 to have less range than a Chevy.

It was 95 miles and it was under 1/3...

I firmly believe the Model 3 75 will have slightly over 300 miles of range and the base version will have between 240 and 250 miles of range.

 

[cdub]

It was 95 miles and it was under 1/3...

I firmly believe the Model 3 75 will have slightly over 300 miles of range and the base version will have between 240 and 250 miles of range.

Hope you're right but I think you're incorrect. Hope springs eternal though!

 

[CarlitoDoc]

The bolt is TINY !!! so Meh.

 

[VIKING26]

I'm surprised the poll is this close (35 no, 65 yes) at this point. I said yes. Maybe the wheel covers is Tesla's way to get the range to beat the Bolt without adding a lot to the cost.

 

[jim5359]

The Bolt has bragging rights as the first inexpensive 200+ mile BEV, but it's not being mass produced, the charging network is spotty and there is a lot TBD about it, and it is a pretty small car.

GM sold 1,642 Chevrolet Bolt EVs in the U.S. in June making it the best selling EV next to Tesla. That's on pace to 20K cars a year. So to say it's not being mass produced I believe is false.

5 Months Of Chevrolet Bolt Sales: What Do The Numbers Tell Us So Far?

In my first year of Model S ownership I haven't used a supercharger once. I understand for some the supercharger network is important, but for many who do 99% of their driving within 200 miles the Bolt will work just fine.

The Model 3 will likely have more tech initially, but Chevy is working with Lyft on a self-driving version. GM has already released their version of AutoPilot in the Cadillac CT6, so having the option on the Bolt is inevitable. By the time someone who orders an M3 today actually gets it delivered I'll bet the Bolt will have similar tech. And the Bolt will still qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit, while the M3 will likely not by then.

As for range, both the Bolt and M3 have 60kWh batteries so I'm guessing it will be very close. It will largely depend on weight and aerodynamics. Other than marketing and bragging rights I don't think the range difference will end up being a factor for buyers. The M3 will eventually have a 75kWh option, but who knows if the Bolt will also by then.

I'm not suggesting the Bolt is a better car or even as good of a car as the M3. I'm just trying to inject an alternate viewpoint on a Tesla dominated forum. The Bolt is a different car that will appeal to different buyers. My experience is Elan Musk makes a lot of promises that he has trouble keeping, as AP2 owners can attest to. We'll see at the end of the year how these cars really stack up.

 

[McRat]

The bolt is TINY !!! so Meh.

We drove with 4 large adults on a couple of test drives. Tiny is not very accurate. If you have trouble fitting in a Bolt, you will certainly have trouble in a Model S, especially in the rear seats.

 

[Mkorpal]

I voted yes. I expect the base 60kw to get 240.

 

[Booga]

I don't know if it will, because I have no intelligent way to estimating the efficiency they will achieve and what they may have done with the HVAC system.

But when it comes to being an ICE replacement, including road trips, this car can actually accomplish it. The Bolt can't - at least not yet.

 

[nebster]

The bolt is TINY !!! so Meh.

It actually has about the same passenger volume as the Model S

2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV vs. 2016 Tesla Model S 60 Comparison

Despite its subcompact size (it’s about the size of a Honda Fit), putting the battery beneath the floor and pushing out the wheels to all four corners have allowed Chevy engineers to build a small hatchback with an impressive 95 cubic feet of passenger volume, 1 cubic foot more than the two-row Tesla, which is 32 inches longer. That number translates to a spacious back seat with plenty of room for a 6-foot passenger to sit behind a 6-foot driver.

 

[techmaven]

It actually has about the same passenger volume as the Model S

2017 Chevrolet Bolt EV vs. 2016 Tesla Model S 60 Comparison

Misleading. Actually get into it. There's a lot of headroom, but a lot less shoulder room. There's a lot of volume counted in the Bolt that isn't really usable.

 

[wdolson]

I think the based model 3 will beat the Bolt.

I think the 75 model 3 will have something in the 275 range of range.

I also think at the reveal he'll also release newer versions of S & X with fancy shmancy upgraded interiors to really differentiate from the 3.

Maybe that's where the rumored HUD will go if it exists instead of the current binacle.

I also predict the new S & X interior will have horizontal displays like the 3 to unify the interface.

This is of course slightly speculative although I remember hearing something on the Tesla show about a model S & X tech refresh from an inside source.

I expect some big revision of the S and X, but it won't be until after the free supercharging is gone. The mistake they made getting rid of free supercharging at the beginning of this year was sales dropped because an advantage was gone, but there was little new to entice buyers.

GM sold 1,642 Chevrolet Bolt EVs in the U.S. in June making it the best selling EV next to Tesla. That's on pace to 20K cars a year. So to say it's not being mass produced I believe is false.

5 Months Of Chevrolet Bolt Sales: What Do The Numbers Tell Us So Far?

Bolt production is only planned at 30K a year, that's less than current Model S production and a drop in the bucket compared to other cars in production. I believe Chevrolet considers the Corvette a limited production car and they build 40K of those a year. Tesla plans to be making around 20X more Model 3s than Bolts are made in a year or so.

In my first year of Model S ownership I haven't used a supercharger once. I understand for some the supercharger network is important, but for many who do 99% of their driving within 200 miles the Bolt will work just fine.

The Model 3 will likely have more tech initially, but Chevy is working with Lyft on a self-driving version. GM has already released their version of AutoPilot in the Cadillac CT6, so having the option on the Bolt is inevitable. By the time someone who orders an M3 today actually gets it delivered I'll bet the Bolt will have similar tech. And the Bolt will still qualify for the $7,500 federal tax credit, while the M3 will likely not by then.

The Volt counts against the 200K limit and the estimators are saying it will be a race to see whether Tesla or GM hits 200K first. Tesla is faster at revising their tech than traditional automakers. Tesla is ahead of every other automaker in autopilot tech already, though their schedule took a hit when Mobileye broke up with them.

And as for supercharging, even though something like 97% of trips are under 100 miles, if you actually look at the miles driven, a relatively large percentage of miles driven are on trips over 100 miles. I can't find the numbers in a quick search.

People also want the option of being able to get in their car and drive a long distance, even if they don't do it very often. Range on road trips is a Psychological thing.

 

[Skotty]

I'm going to guess 225 (No). I will also guess that PR will try to only compare a larger battery option against the Bolt. Either way, realistically, Model 3 will still hold a huge advantage due to the Supercharger network.

I'm also going to guess that, in part due to demand, and less so because of how press will report it, the first batch of Model 3s will all be a larger than base battery option, even though they won't have AWD as an option yet.

 

[BluestarE3]

The Model 3 webpage has always been vague (i.e., hasn't been updated) on specs such as 0-60 time ("under 6 seconds"), Supercharging (just says "Supercharging"), and range ("215 miles"). However, the comparison chart they published as part of their "anti-selling" campaign did add a bit more clarity: 0-60 is "5.6 seconds", Supercharging is "pay per use" and range is "215+ miles". How much should one read into the "+"?

There was also a tweet where someone asked Elon for reassurance that the Model 3 will have more range than the Bolt EV. He replied, "Oh so little faith". Elon Musk on Twitter

Being more of a realist, I think any improvement over 215 miles will just be incremental -- enough to get closer to the Bolt EV's 238 mile range so that the difference won't matter to most people cross-shopping the two cars. For those wanting a longer range, they can get the larger battery (something the Bolt EV doesn't offer). The fact that the Model 3 offers different battery sizes to suit individual needs may also have been what Elon meant in his tweet: have faith that Tesla will offer a Model 3 option with longer range than the Bolt EV if that's what you need.

Of course, if the base model does come in over 238 miles, I'm not going to complain. I'm just not setting my expectations unrealistically based on a plus sign and a vague tweet. I'm more than happy with 215 miles and there are many factors other than range per charge that makes the Model 3 more appealing to me than the Bolt EV.

 

[JeffK]

range is "215+ miles". How much should one read into the "+"?

There was also a tweet where someone asked Elon for reassurance that the Model 3 will have more range than the Bolt EV. He replied, "Oh so little faith". Elon Musk on Twitter

Being more of a realist, I think any improvement over 215 miles will just be incremental -- enough to get closer to the Bolt EV's 238 mile range so that the difference won't matter to most people cross-shopping the two cars. For those wanting a longer range, they can get the larger battery (something the Bolt EV doesn't offer). The fact that the Model 3 offers different battery sizes to suit individual needs may also have been what Elon meant in his tweet: have faith that Tesla will offer a Model 3 option with longer range than the Bolt EV if that's what you need.

Of course, if the base model does come in over 238 miles, I'm not going to complain. I'm just not setting my expectations unrealistically based on a plus sign and a vague tweet. I'm more than happy with 215 miles and there are many factors other than range per charge that makes the Model 3 more appealing to me than the Bolt EV.

I always like to remember Elon's quote

200 miles is a minimum threshold for an electric car. We need 200-plus miles in the real world. Not 200 miles in "AC off, driving on flat road" mode. Anything below 200 miles isn’t passing grade. Most people looking for 20% more than that.

200 * 1.2 = 240 miles

 

[ikjadoon]

Musk is a salesman. He needs numbers to sell; Tesla loves numbers: 5 stars, 2.3 seconds, 7 seats, 99.97% (HEPA filtration), 17 inches, 8 airbags, etc.

If it's not 240+ miles, I think he'll be somewhat disappointed. This is what we're competing against in the Bolt (Model S 75 for reference):

I don't know any math on this, but 110 MPGe on highway for the Bolt? Come on. He's already aiming for 0.21 cd.

 

[jim5359]

Bolt production is only planned at 30K a year, that's less than current Model S production and a drop in the bucket compared to other cars in production. ... Tesla plans to be making around 20X more Model 3s than Bolts are made in a year or so.

GM said they are planning 30K a year in sales, but are capable of producing as many as people want. That IS a drop in the bucket compared to many ICE cars, but if that's the metric then there are no mass produced electric cars today. Just because Elan Musk says he plans on selling 20X that doesn't mean he will. The Toyota Camry was the best selling car last year and they sold 388,616. Do you really think the M3 is going to outsell the Camry?

I hope the Model 3 is great and it sells really well. But one thing I've learned is Elan Musk likes to make big promises that he can't deliver on. So I wouldn't be shocked if sales are nowhere near his projections. That being said, if he sells 100K Model 3s per year it will still be a huge success.

 

[JeffK]

GM said they are planning 30K a year in sales, but are capable of producing as many as people want. That IS a drop in the bucket compared to many ICE cars, but if that's the metric then there are no mass produced electric cars today. Just because Elan Musk says he plans on selling 20X that doesn't mean he will. The Toyota Camry was the best selling car last year and they sold 388,616. Do you really think the M3 is going to outsell the Camry?

I hope the Model 3 is great and it sells really well. But one thing I've learned is Elan Musk likes to make big promises that he can't deliver on. So I wouldn't be shocked if sales are nowhere near his projections. That being said, if he sells 100K Model 3s per year it will still be a huge success.

huh... Your facts are a little funny. You are mixing up Corolla and Camry plus you are citing US Camry sales, not global. (Camry outsold the Corolla in the US but not globally)

Consider last year they sold 1.3 million Toyota Corollas and that's down from 2015 numbers. VW Golf is usually second with nearly a million sold worldwide.