[POLL] Will base model M3 beat the Chevy Bolt's 238 mile EPA range?

[gregincal]

The Toyota Camry was the best selling car last year and they sold 388,616. Do you really think the M3 is going to outsell the Camry?

That's US sales only. Tesla sells only about half of its cars in the US.

 

[jim5359]

huh... Your facts are a little funny. You are mixing up Corolla and Camry plus you are citing US Camry sales, not global.

Nothing funny about my facts, those are indeed Camry US Sales. Never mentioned Corolla.

Toyota Camry Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

That's US sales only. Tesla sells only about half of its cars in the US.

Thanks for the clarification. I don't think that changes the point I was making. If you believe Musk's prediction then you believe that the M3 will be one of the top 15 selling cars in the US, outselling most ICE models. I think that's totally unrealistic.

 

[JeffK]

1.35 Million Corollas were sold in 2015... that's over 3 times the Model 3 number at full production volume.
If you want to stick with Camrys, global production is around 900,000 units which is more than double Model 3. Why would you compare US sales of a vehicle to Tesla's global numbers? You should be comparing global to global.

I think that's totally unrealistic.

You can think whatever you want... the preorder numbers speak for themselves.
On the global stage 400,000 cars per year is a drop in the bucket. Some are suggesting 88.1 Million automotive sales in 2016. Supposedly going to reach over 93 Million in 2017...

 

[Jeff N]

Misleading. Actually get into it. There's a lot of headroom, but a lot less shoulder room. There's a lot of volume counted in the Bolt that isn't really usable.

The shoulder room is really only an issue if you are trying to put 3 people in the backseat.

 

[alevek]

I haven't read through the Bolt thread. How accurate is the 238 mile range on the car?

Very accurate. I regularly get 250+ mi rated, 300+ max, 200+ min

 

[internalaudit]

With Tesla not going by standard car manufacturer production cycle (all new and mid-cycle upgrades) upgrading the cars all the time, I doubt it matters if the base M3 beats the Bolt or not. Maybe once the first 400k is delivered, then it can increase the range by 20% just to attract more buyers.

 

[jim5359]

You can think whatever you want... the preorder numbers speak for themselves.

The pre-orders do speak for themselves, but they don't speak for actual sales. We'll see how many of those refundable no risk pre-orders turn into actual $35K+ sales. Only time will tell.

 

[EVNow]

I don't think that changes the point I was making. If you believe Musk's prediction then you believe that the M3 will be one of the top 15 selling cars in the US, outselling most ICE models. I think that's totally unrealistic

In June, to be in top 15, you had to sell more than 22k. About 250k per year. In the US. Possible for Model 3.
Auto Sales - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
If you only took cars (not SUVs/Cross overs) it becomes easier.

 

[wdolson]

GM said they are planning 30K a year in sales, but are capable of producing as many as people want. That IS a drop in the bucket compared to many ICE cars, but if that's the metric then there are no mass produced electric cars today. Just because Elan Musk says he plans on selling 20X that doesn't mean he will. The Toyota Camry was the best selling car last year and they sold 388,616. Do you really think the M3 is going to outsell the Camry?

I hope the Model 3 is great and it sells really well. But one thing I've learned is Elan Musk likes to make big promises that he can't deliver on. So I wouldn't be shocked if sales are nowhere near his projections. That being said, if he sells 100K Model 3s per year it will still be a huge success.

OK, GM could make a million lawn ornaments a year if they wanted to, they have the production capacity, but there are only enough batteries available to make about 50,000 a year.
General Motors Can Make 50,000 Chevrolet Bolts Per Year

Production is limited by whatever the biggest bottleneck is and with non-Tesla EVs, it's batteries.

And I think it is possible the Model 3 could threaten sales of other sedans. The Model S has collapsed sales of ICE in its price segment, though that is a very small niche compared to the one Tesla is moving into now. It's unlikely to outsell the competition from the outset, but it will likely put a big enough dent in sales within a year or two that the majors are going to get worried.

And as far as Musk goes, one thing the critics have always done is underestimate him. He very rarely repeats the same mistake twice and the fact the Model 3 is entering production around the time he said it would is a sign he has learned the lesson of past car delays.

 

[CarlitoDoc]

Misleading. Actually get into it. There's a lot of headroom, but a lot less shoulder room. There's a lot of volume counted in the Bolt that isn't really usable.

So what you're actually saying is : "It feels bigger once you're inside"...... (sorry had to do it !)

 

[ProphetM]

I think the base-battery Model 3 will beat the Bolt's range but I'm not super confident about it. My optimistic predictions are 242 for the base and 303 for the large battery. This might take the not-available-at-launch dual motor versions to reach. I think the aero wheel covers are an effort to stretch to the goals of beating the Bolt on the base and beating 300 miles on the bigger battery.

For a more pessimistic prediction where they don't reach these goals, 228 and 288.

 

[EchoDelta]

The bolt is TINY !!! so Meh.

I read that as "Tinny" and had a good laugh.

 

[insaneoctane]

I personally think that the original idea that Elon had was to release the base model with 55kWh and he could meet his 215 mile minimum with some necessary wiggle room. Then the Bolt was released with 60kWh and achieved 238 mi EPA range. I think that forced Elon to reconsider his initial decision and he bumped the base model to 60 kWh. Then with the aero wheels as gravy, I think the base model will now just beat the Bolt and achieve bragging rights. I think it is important for Tesla to not leave anything on the table and letting a Chevy have a better "spec" such as EPA range isn't an option for such a game-changing technologically advanced EV leader such as Tesla. If the base model Model 3 beats the Chevy, then you don't even have a single stupid excuse to buy it over the Model 3. For the record, with the lower Cd, frontal area and supercharger network, the comparison is actually quite silly. But, many uninformed people make silly comparisons every day.

 

[alevek]

I personally think that the original idea that Elon had was to release the base model with 55kWh and he could meet his 215 mile minimum with some necessary wiggle room. Then the Bolt was released with 60kWh and achieved 238 mi EPA range. I think that forced Elon to reconsider his initial decision and he bumped the base model to 60 kWh. Then with the aero wheels as gravy, I think the base model will now just beat the Bolt and achieve bragging rights. I think it is important for Tesla to not leave anything on the table and letting a Chevy have a better "spec" such as EPA range isn't an option for such a game-changing technologically advanced EV leader such as Tesla. If the base model Model 3 beats the Chevy, then you don't even have a single stupid excuse to buy it over the Model 3. For the record, with the lower Cd, frontal area and supercharger network, the comparison is actually quite silly. But, many uninformed people make silly comparisons every day.

I have a single stupid excuse: need roof rack to carry 12 ft paddle board, so I already bought one.

 

[alloverx]

Also sat in a Bolt and plenty of space. Oddly enough was in the gym tonight and heard a couple of guys were talking about a buying a Bolt! Competition is great. Lets see if Model3 base can beat Bolt, might force GM to improve the Bolt.

 

[S3XY]

The bolt is TINY !!! so Meh.

That may be so but is it tinny?

 

[JohnSnowNW]

My answer is that it will effectively have more range at 215 than the Bolt at 238. So, I guess, "yes."

 

[McRat]

That may be so but is it tinny?

Both the Volt and Bolt feel substantial when driving. It comes with the 3500lb curb weight and rigid chassis. The difference in feel on highways between these cars and economy cars is very noticeable. They love the freeway, yet are still very nimble when requested. Good programming on the electric assist.

 

[Topher]

since the $35K Tesla will be like unicorn tears....

Since anyone can buy one, I am not sure what you mean. Do you mean no one will want one? How did you come to that conclusion?

Do you really think the M3 is going to outsell the Camry?

Yes. They have already got orders for more than that. Can they make that many is the question.

but are capable of producing as many as people want.

Nope. LG Chem makes the batteries, motor, inverter, et al. they are limited in supply.

But one thing I've learned is Elan Musk likes to make big promises that he can't deliver on.

Your argument about what you have learned would sound more persausive if you had learned how to spell his name first.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Jeff N]

That may be so but is it tinny?

No, but it is aluminiumly with a steely safety cage and a lithium-stuffed subfloor.