Powerwall Backorders

[holeydonut]

Lol I feel like TMC needs a thread that talks about Powerwall alternatives and whether they are viable/good solutions since Powerwall inventory is so sporadic.

Enphase Encharge 10T is 3.84 kW, 9.7 kWh
Fortress eVault (Sol Ark 12k) is 8.9 kW, 17.8 kWh (and comes with casters do you can wheel it around!)
Generac PWRCell IR/OR M6 is 6.7 kW and 17.3 kWh
LG Chem StorEdge 7600A is 4.6 kW and 16.8 kWh
POMCube PNZ is 12.5 kW and 18.5 kWh
Sonnen EcoLinx gen 1.5 is 7 kW and 18.5 kWh
SunPower SunVault 26 is 6 kW and 22.9 kWh

And of course for reference the PW2 is 5 kW (nameplate before Elon's Tweets) and 13.2 kWh

 

[taphil]

Needs price listing too.

 

[jjrandorin]

Lol I feel like TMC needs a thread that talks about Powerwall alternatives and whether they are viable/good solutions since Powerwall inventory is so sporadic.

Enphase Encharge 10T is 3.84 kW, 9.7 kWh
Fortress eVault (Sol Ark 12k) is 8.9 kW, 17.8 kWh (and comes with casters do you can wheel it around!)
Generac PWRCell IR/OR M6 is 6.7 kW and 17.3 kWh
LG Chem StorEdge 7600A is 4.6 kW and 16.8 kWh
POMCube PNZ is 12.5 kW and 18.5 kWh
Sonnen EcoLinx gen 1.5 is 7 kW and 18.5 kWh
SunPower SunVault 26 is 6 kW and 22.9 kWh

And of course for reference the PW2 is 5 kW (nameplate before Elon's Tweets) and 13.2 kWh

Im not familiar with most of these, but because the specs on the generac listed here looked interesting, I took a quick look at their website to look at it. From their own marketing speak:

=======================

The PWRcell battery can be configured to meet any budget or lifestyle: with as few as three battery modules for just 8.6kWh of capacity and 4.5kW output; or, four, five and six battery module configurations yield more power and capacity up to 18kWh capacity and 9kW output. When even more power is needed, multiple PWRcell batteries can be connected to a single PWRcell inverter for up to 36kWh of storage capacity and 11kW continuous backup power

=======================

So I translate this to "Our max spec of these is 36kW storage and 11k continuous power, and thats with 12 battery modules of storage", or, "quite a bit less than 3 powerwalls",which can be stacked up to 10.

I think there is a reason that most people who take a look into home battery storage end up wanting tesla powerwalls, and I dont think that reason has anything to do with Teslas great customer service.

 

[BGbreeder]

Im not familiar with most of these, but because the specs on the generac listed here looked interesting, I took a quick look at their website to look at it. From their own marketing speak:

=======================

The PWRcell battery can be configured to meet any budget or lifestyle: with as few as three battery modules for just 8.6kWh of capacity and 4.5kW output; or, four, five and six battery module configurations yield more power and capacity up to 18kWh capacity and 9kW output. When even more power is needed, multiple PWRcell batteries can be connected to a single PWRcell inverter for up to 36kWh of storage capacity and 11kW continuous backup power

=======================

So I translate this to "Our max spec of these is 36kW storage and 11k continuous power, and thats with 12 battery modules of storage", or, "quite a bit less than 3 powerwalls",which can be stacked up to 10.

I think there is a reason that most people who take a look into home battery storage end up wanting tesla powerwalls, and I dont think that reason has anything to do with Teslas great customer service.

I can't speak for others, but for me, it has to do with MTBF. That's why my number two battery solution is a Nissan Leaf pack, or two, rather than any of the other entries on that nice list.

The other cells mentioned have a number of interesting attributes that might make them very attractive, but as of right now, there is a buyer's premium to try one of the other systems to see if it lives, or they live, up to the advance billing. This isn't like trying a new restaurant out; these units should have service lives measured in decades.

I was told that you can double or triple up the Generac units if the instantaneous power demand load is larger than what a single unit can provide. Of course, there is a real $ cost to going that route, compared to Powerwalls.

YMMV...

All the best,

BG

 

[mike01]

There is something very strange about the Powerwall backorders. There are definitely Powerwalls out there, Tesla doesn’t seem to be allocating them uniformly. Tesla doesn’t install in my state, but I got quotes from a couple different third-party installers. One company said it would be a while before they could get any and they were trying to steer me to a enphase brand battery. The second company that I ended up going with had a bunch in stock from recent shipments and it only took a month and a half from me signing the contract to get installation and PTO for solar + 2 Powerwalls. I saw a picture showing 34 Powerwalls in their warehouse.

Here is a quote from my sales rep- “ We have plenty of Powerwalls. Some of the ones here in the back are wrapped and reserved but we have ones available in the back as well as more on scheduled shipments. In Oct we received 40, Nov 30, Dec 30, Jan 35 ,Feb 50. Expecting more , March 50, April 35, May 50, June 50 so lots on the way too. I have heard some other installers were having trouble the end of last year sourcing the equipment. We have a great relationship with Tesla and they have also pulled jobs from less experienced installers and had us step in with level two technical when a houses wiring was too complicated for other guys to tackle.”

As requested by someone here, these are pics taken in the past 2 months of the in-stock Powerwalls from the company that did my install.

 

[Tim-in-CA]

With or without solar system? Tesla or 3rd party installer? Thanks.

Assuming you're asking me, I ordered 8.16kW system plus 2 PWs from Tesla directly.

 

[jhn_]

I have a theory based on no evidence other than my own experience that Tesla Powerwall installs that agree to be part of a VPP, where Tesla gets a portion of revenue for operating the VPP, get priority.

 

[jhn_]

View attachment 661117View attachment 661118
As requested by someone here, these are pics taken in the past 2 months of the in-stock Powerwalls from the company that did my install.

It probably doesn’t make sense for Tesla to ship less than a full standard size 53’ trailer to a destination, which I think is about 26 standard sized pallets not stacked. So that could contribute to things like shown in that warehouse where suddenly there are 20+ pallets while other installers are still waiting.

 

[mike01]

It probably doesn’t make sense for Tesla to ship less than a full standard size 53’ trailer to a destination, which I think is about 26 standard sized pallets not stacked. So that could contribute to things like shown in that warehouse where suddenly there are 20+ pallets while other installers are still waiting.

Yes that’s possible, but I was told in February that they received 40 in October, 30 in November, 30 in December, 35 in January, and 50 in February. They were also expecting 50 more in March 50, 35 in April April, 50 in May, and 50 in June 50. At the same time another installer said they weren’t getting any. Very strange.

 

[holeydonut]

Yeah, I believe Vines says his employer is also getting steady shipments from Tesla, and they're on pace to meet all their deliveries without interruption.

As others noted, it seems like Tesla takes some preference since the ability for an installer to obtain inventory seems inconsistent between installers. Like H2ofun had 5x installed without much delay even though he went through a third party provider (not direct with Tesla).

 

[h2ofun]

Yeah, I believe Vines says his employer is also getting steady shipments from Tesla, and they're on pace to meet all their deliveries without interruption.

As others noted, it seems like Tesla takes some preference since the ability for an installer to obtain inventory seems inconsistent between installers. Like H2ofun had 5x installed without much delay even though he went through a third party provider (not direct with Tesla).

I got lucky since now, that installer, is having lots of delays for everyone, whether cash or loans.

 

[jboy210]

Yes that’s possible, but I was told in February that they received 40 in October, 30 in November, 30 in December, 35 in January, and 50 in February. They were also expecting 50 more in March 50, 35 in April April, 50 in May, and 50 in June 50. At the same time another installer said they weren’t getting any. Very strange.

This sounds like other operations I have seen for items that are tough to get. If you have the cash to buy them or will make a commitment to buy so many a quarter you get the product. But if you are a smaller operation with tighter cash flow and can only buy when you have an end customer you get moved to the back of the line.

 

[jjrandorin]

Yeah, I believe Vines says his employer is also getting steady shipments from Tesla, and they're on pace to meet all their deliveries without interruption.

As others noted, it seems like Tesla takes some preference since the ability for an installer to obtain inventory seems inconsistent between installers. Like H2ofun had 5x installed without much delay even though he went through a third party provider (not direct with Tesla).

(note, personal opinion, no inside information or insight is implied with my opinions on this topic)

===============================

Certainly not the delay that @BGbreeder is experiencing, at least I dont think so.

@jhn_ , We dont really (yet) have the virtual power plant thing up and running here in CA. I mean, @holeydonut got some materials about an offering from sunrun, but for the most part We dont have that program yet here, so it could be impacting things elsewhere but not in CA.

There definitely is "something" that is driving some installers to get inventory and some to not receive it, and the "simplest" thing to me is an allocation system like they do with new BMWs at dealers.

In a nutshell, past performance dictates how many "allocations" (slots for new builds") you get. A BMW dealer that doesnt sell many M3s (the real one, not the TMC speak for "model 3") wont receive many allocations for new ones. THIS means that, if for example, they end up in a situation where they have a car club that wants to order 10 M3s from them, but they only have allocations for 3, they would have to wait till "the next month" to see what their allocation is for that month.

In this situation, some BMW dealers will "slow play" "Oh yeah I have it on order, we will get it to you", but they dont have allocations and are either trying to trade for them, or slow playing the customer till they get more 4 months from now.

Meanwhile, other (usually larger, but definitely busier) BMW dealers might be getting allocations for 20, so could easily fill that car clubs order and others at the same time (and also offer lower pricing because they are moving more product).

Sounds a lot like what appears to be happening here to me, without any inside information at all. Some sort of allocation system, where "some third parties" who have either demonstrated ability to sell through / install without issues / are very large are getting them, and others who havent done all that are not.

 

[holeydonut]

(note, personal opinion, no inside information or insight is implied with my opinions on this topic)

Meanwhile, other (usually larger, but definitely busier) BMW dealers might be getting allocations for 20, so could easily fill that car clubs order and others at the same time (and also offer lower pricing because they are moving more product).

I mostly agree with your analogy of the BMW M3 (the real M3 haha). Except for one very important distinction that I feel only Tesla would get a free pass on.

Normal automotive sales (at least in the USA) have to run through an independently owned dealer network. When BMW of North America sets out to allocate vehicles, they are typically very transparent in terms of what production will be and how the allocations work (especially for limited production runs).

Everyone knows the rules of the game and also know how their individual performance can affect their allocation. A dealership cannot simply "buy" allocation straight from BMW by throwing money at corporate. Rather, a dealership "buys" allocation by hitting sales targets, margin targets, customer satisfaction scores, variable allowance targets, etc. And as you pointed out, dealers can do horse trades and swaps with other dealers.

But the underlying principle is that, the rules are known in advance, and the dealers are playing by a fair share of rules where they aren't being mis-managed by HQ policies. After all, BMW needs its independent dealers, and its independent dealers need BMW.

Tesla is a weird anomaly because Tesla has argued that the EV is too difficult for a traditional independent re-seller to effectively sell and service. So Tesla fought for and won exemptions to be able to have their own captive sales and support network. This is highly lucrative for Tesla since they own the direct-to-consumer margin. I don't care if you're watching Shark Tank or trying to start your own eCommerce company. It's so obvious for BTC sales... you want to cut out the middle and go straight to the consumer. And of course it's convenient that Tesla is able to operate with DTC while its EV rivals still have to deal with an independent sales network.

Anyway, that brings me to Tesla and Powerwalls. Tesla's ESS is in a unique space where HQ operates their own solar and ESS product offerings by selling direct to consumers on Tesla.com. But at the same time, Tesla signed up a large independent network of resellers and partners.

Oftentimes, corporate orders are just leads that got passed on to the independent re-sellers. That's why if you go to Maytag.com or Volvo.com, you can punch in your own info, but it's going to be a local distributor that calls you back. But with Tesla.com, your order is managed by Tesla's own internal team. There is no lead-gen pass through here. Tesla takes the lead and Tesla makes the money.

This is a huge conflict of interest with Tesla's alleged "independent" network. Because now Tesla has provided no clear guidance on how a partner gets inventory. So the rules don't make sense; and the independents could be left bag-holding orders they cannot fulfill or promises they cannot keep. This isn't an issue most of the time... but Tesla has made it a big issue for their partners. As a partner, they probably had to include images of Tesla Powerwalls in their ad copy. They had to train their sales/design team to be able to effectively describe the product and produce a possible system design using Tesla Powerwalls.

But then, Tesla is the only seller who has the Powerwall, so Tesla is in the unique position to poach this customer into becoming a corporate sale and cut out the middle. The merchant laws requiring independent sales and service channels were set up to prevent such an abuse of power. Tesla is abusing their relationships and are facing almost no backlash at the state or federal level. This is unheard of but Tesla will keep doing it since nobody is coming down on them. I don't expect people on a fan-forum for Tesla to really care about what Tesla's doing. But I am interested to see what will need to happen before the states actually start forcing Tesla to act like all the other businesses that trade in their respective juristictions.

 

[jjrandorin]

I mostly agree with your analogy of the BMW M3 (the real M3 haha). Except for one very important distinction that I feel only Tesla would get a free pass on.

Normal automotive sales (at least in the USA) have to run through an independently owned dealer network. When BMW of North America sets out to allocate vehicles, they are typically very transparent in terms of what production will be and how the allocations work (especially for limited production runs).

Everyone knows the rules of the game and also know how their individual performance can affect their allocation. A dealership cannot simply "buy" allocation straight from BMW by throwing money at corporate. Rather, a dealership "buys" allocation by hitting sales targets, margin targets, customer satisfaction scores, variable allowance targets, etc. And as you pointed out, dealers can do horse trades and swaps with other dealers.

But the underlying principle is that, the rules are known in advance, and the dealers are playing by a fair share of rules where they aren't being mis-managed by HQ policies. After all, BMW needs its independent dealers, and its independent dealers need BMW.

Tesla is a weird anomaly because Tesla has argued that the EV is too difficult for a traditional independent re-seller to effectively sell and service. So Tesla fought for and won exemptions to be able to have their own captive sales and support network. This is highly lucrative for Tesla since they own the direct-to-consumer margin. I don't care if you're watching Shark Tank or trying to start your own eCommerce company. It's so obvious for BTC sales... you want to cut out the middle and go straight to the consumer. And of course it's convenient that Tesla is able to operate with DTC while its EV rivals still have to deal with an independent sales network.

Anyway, that brings me to Tesla and Powerwalls. Tesla's ESS is in a unique space where HQ operates their own solar and ESS product offerings by selling direct to consumers on Tesla.com. But at the same time, Tesla signed up a large independent network of resellers and partners.

Oftentimes, corporate orders are just leads that got passed on to the independent re-sellers. That's why if you go to Maytag.com or Volvo.com, you can punch in your own info, but it's going to be a local distributor that calls you back. But with Tesla.com, your order is managed by Tesla's own internal team. There is no lead-gen pass through here. Tesla takes the lead and Tesla makes the money.

This is a huge conflict of interest with Tesla's alleged "independent" network. Because now Tesla has provided no clear guidance on how a partner gets inventory. So the rules don't make sense; and the independents could be left bag-holding orders they cannot fulfill or promises they cannot keep. This isn't an issue most of the time... but Tesla has made it a big issue for their partners. As a partner, they probably had to include images of Tesla Powerwalls in their ad copy. They had to train their sales/design team to be able to effectively describe the product and produce a possible system design using Tesla Powerwalls.

But then, Tesla is the only seller who has the Powerwall, so Tesla is in the unique position to poach this customer into becoming a corporate sale and cut out the middle. The merchant laws requiring independent sales and service channels were set up to prevent such an abuse of power. Tesla is abusing their relationships and are facing almost no backlash at the state or federal level. This is unheard of but Tesla will keep doing it since nobody is coming down on them. I don't expect people on a fan-forum for Tesla to really care about what Tesla's doing. But I am interested to see what will need to happen before the states actually start forcing Tesla to act like all the other businesses that trade in their respective juristictions.

I agree with all of this. The only thing I would add, is, at least back when I was getting my quotes (summer of 2019), I was told by one of the third parties I got a price from that "we pay the same thing you do for powerwalls, so we have to make money somewhere" in relation to the pretty large difference in price.

I wanted to use the local third party, but the price wasnt anywhere near close.. not even close enough for me to stomach the difference. My install was also just adding on powerwalls to existing solar, and pretty simple. Tesla did fine on my install, but prior to that, I wanted to support the local company, but the difference in price was too great, and I was given the above as the reason).

 

[BGbreeder]

I agree with all of this. The only thing I would add, is, at least back when I was getting my quotes (summer of 2019), I was told by one of the third parties I got a price from that "we pay the same thing you do for powerwalls, so we have to make money somewhere" in relation to the pretty large difference in price.

I wanted to use the local third party, but the price wasnt anywhere near close.. not even close enough for me to stomach the difference. My install was also just adding on powerwalls to existing solar, and pretty simple. Tesla did fine on my install, but prior to that, I wanted to support the local company, but the difference in price was too great, and I was given the above as the reason).

FWIW: I got a similar story from my third party installer. Even if it were the case that they get it at a small wholesale discount, I get that they need to charge for labor, permit fees, etc.

I have seen the DTC sales model in competition with third parties in other industries and I would observe that rarely has the sales model been stable long term. Either the manufacturer takes the whole thing in house, or they decide that their expertise is in manufacturing and walk from the direct sales and support.

All the best,

BG

 

[holeydonut]

FWIW: I got a similar story from my third party installer. Even if it were the case that they get it at a small wholesale discount, I get that they need to charge for labor, permit fees, etc.

I have seen the DTC sales model in competition with third parties in other industries and I would observe that rarely has the sales model been stable long term. Either the manufacturer takes the whole thing in house, or they decide that their expertise is in manufacturing and walk from the direct sales and support.

All the best,

BG

Well so far Tesla has had its cake and eaten it too. They have the worst service and support in the industry (both their cars and their solar). But their tech is very reliable. So the states and consumers have largely failed to build a case for Tesla to actually have to comply with merchant laws.

Service requirements for a vehicle with a thousand mechanical things that could fail seems wildly different than warranty expense for an EV where the battery warranty provision is probably 2/3 of the total manufacturer warranty.

But solar seems to be a different animal. Tesla seems poorly equipped to deal with the issues that an expert independent PV and ESS installer may actually have to deal with. Since an independent cannot just take someone's money then tell the customer maybe an inverter will be fixed next month. They cannot be fixated 100% on chasing new volume. But Tesla wants volume volume volume.

 

[jjrandorin]

FWIW: I got a similar story from my third party installer. Even if it were the case that they get it at a small wholesale discount, I get that they need to charge for labor, permit fees, etc.

I have seen the DTC sales model in competition with third parties in other industries and I would observe that rarely has the sales model been stable long term. Either the manufacturer takes the whole thing in house, or they decide that their expertise is in manufacturing and walk from the direct sales and support.

All the best,

BG

Agree (for others, if not obvious, DTC = Direct to Consumer).

 

[jboy210]

(note, personal opinion, no inside information or insight is implied with my opinions on this topic)

===============================

Certainly not the delay that @BGbreeder is experiencing, at least I dont think so.

@jhn_ , We dont really (yet) have the virtual power plant thing up and running here in CA. I mean, @holeydonut got some materials about an offering from sunrun, but for the most part We dont have that program yet here, so it could be impacting things elsewhere but not in CA.

There definitely is "something" that is driving some installers to get inventory and some to not receive it, and the "simplest" thing to me is an allocation system like they do with new BMWs at dealers.

In a nutshell, past performance dictates how many "allocations" (slots for new builds") you get. A BMW dealer that doesnt sell many M3s (the real one, not the TMC speak for "model 3") wont receive many allocations for new ones. THIS means that, if for example, they end up in a situation where they have a car club that wants to order 10 M3s from them, but they only have allocations for 3, they would have to wait till "the next month" to see what their allocation is for that month.

In this situation, some BMW dealers will "slow play" "Oh yeah I have it on order, we will get it to you", but they dont have allocations and are either trying to trade for them, or slow playing the customer till they get more 4 months from now.

Meanwhile, other (usually larger, but definitely busier) BMW dealers might be getting allocations for 20, so could easily fill that car clubs order and others at the same time (and also offer lower pricing because they are moving more product).

Sounds a lot like what appears to be happening here to me, without any inside information at all. Some sort of allocation system, where "some third parties" who have either demonstrated ability to sell through / install without issues / are very large are getting them, and others who havent done all that are not.

I think the entire independent dealership model is coming under pressure. Cadillac just bought out 1 of every 6 (150 of the 880) dealers that did not want to sell only EVs. GM is asserting more control over these dealer networks. Maybe they saw how DTC worked for Tesla.

 

[holeydonut]

I think the entire independent dealership model is coming under pressure. Cadillac just bought out 1 of every 6 (150 of the 880) dealers that did not want to sell only EVs. GM is asserting more control over these dealer networks. Maybe they saw how DTC worked for Tesla.

Yeah, people wonder how Tesla's market cap is greater than the entire summation of all other major USA manufacturer (Ford, GM, Chrysler). The answer is Tesla also has the benefit of the entire sales channel, energy, and credits businesses. Imagine rolling Penske, and every regional retail car sales channel value in alongside F, GM, and FCA... there's a metric crap-ton of value that GM wants to take back if it can get rid of it's middlemen.

I like how GM is taking a page from Tesla's own playbook by saying EVs are too complicated for an independent company to sell and service. Haha clowns.